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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.
In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...
Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver
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You shouldn't be, as the quotes aren't in conflict. If a person believes he can find a better job, he can walk away. If he doesn't believe he can find a better job, he's a fool to even consider walking away.
I haven't seen libertarians complain about either of these, except to the extent that the latter has been causing an expansion of the welfare state.
Its an artificial constraint when the companies that employ you used the "protectionist" policies, relatively free access to natural resources, the right to own private property and grow capital, access to domestic markets, corporate personhood status, and all of the other factors that allowed the American company to build itself to a point where it became profitable enough to lobby gov't to make offshoring the preferred mode of business, immediately throwing the entire middle class into the deep end with no life preserver.
Joe, you are being very shortsighted here. I think most people at Wal-Mart realize they may well be fired if they walk off the job. But if enough of them do it, and enough attention is brought to the fact that assistmant managers at Wal-Mart make $14K a year, hopefully enough zombies will wake up and realize that maybe they should boycott this corporate bully. Many people make sacrifices every day for the GOOD OF SOCIETY.
As #9499 said, it's really risky. But if they ever were going to try to organize and walk off the job, the week of the biggest revenue day for Wal Mart is the time to do it. On May 12th, the employer can easily replace the labor with minimal cost. That's harder to do 2 days before black Friday.
It's the only time when the low skill retail workers have some leverage.
Not really. Market forces don't stop working at the lines drawn on maps. There's certainly a lot of crony capitalism in the U.S., but the entirety of international trade hasn't been some big conspiracy meant to screw the little guy.
This one is my new favorite.
Also, shame on you, Sam, for allowing Joe to skitter out from under his disavowing of FOX News with your planking or whatever.
This is a different issue entirely. I haven't seen any of the Walmart workers talking about the "good of society," only the size of their paychecks.
I didn't say it was, I'm all for international trade. I do like bananas and pineapple and cinnamon. Modern globalist trade policy isn't about bringing goods to a wider market, it is designed entirely to benefit corporate players at the direct expense of the masses. A middle class, if you want one at all, is dependent on regulation of corporations and eliminating offshoring. There will always be a country somewhere that is desperate enough to offer corporate concessions (e.g. lax environmental laws) and cheaper labour. Right now its China, and when the people there start getting uppity the mulitnationals will move somewhere else. If it continues this way long enough, we'll have a small class of super rich, no middle class and billions of people so poor it would make the North American definition of poverty seem like something to strive for.
No one ever forced those people or their parents to start shopping at Walmart en masse. They simply decided that they preferred buying better and/or cheaper foreign-made products instead of lower-quality and/or more expensive American-made products.
***
For Pete's sake, Lassus. I've never "disavowed" Fox News or attempted to disavow Fox News. The people at Fox News are apoplectic when a Dem gets elected county clerk in Crosshairs, Illinois, but that wasn't the point.
Hint: they are directly related. If you out and out can't afford to house and feed your family, society tends to suffer.
This was totally wishful thinking on my part, but under the current array (or lack thereof) of legislation, political corruption and trade policies, its the only thing that will save the middle class. Its called voting with your wallet, and not nearly enough people get the concept.
Rants, you're preaching to the choir. In thread after thread here, I've said that the U.S. is facing a crisis when it comes to low-skill people not being able to find work that pays a living wage. I'm simply disagreeing with your apparent belief that the entirety of international trade has been a big conspiracy to screw people, rather than companies responding to market pressures and consumer demand (and low-skill wages following normal supply-and-demand principles vis-a-vis low-skill labor).
Well, the North American definition of poverty actually *is* something to strive for, at least for about two-thirds of the world's population.
I realize that, but since we have unlimted intellectual capacity as a planet, we should wake up and realize that there is no practical limit to the amount of people that can be elevated out of poverty. Population growth will slow as people become more affluent. Instead we fight amongst each other while the Walmarts, Exxons, Apples, Microsofts and GEs of the world throw us crumbs and laugh.
And soon will be even for Americans who are above that line. We're getting close to the point where staying at home without a lower-income job brings as much money (welfare) in as actually having the job (wages/benefits) does. In that case, there is utterly no real incentive to work.
Ever, or just for black Friday? I've seen plenty of both. Most of them rattle the same protectionist lines over and over again.
Turns out people like buying #### cheap.
I can elevate a large fraction of the people out of poverty right now, by re-defining the poverty line down to a point where all the people below it actually are living in true poverty. Right now the placement of the line is not rationally related to what true poverty is.
And this is by design. The Obama administration's new poverty measurement explicitly measures poverty on a relative basis, which means a large percentage of Americans will always be defined as "living in poverty."
But, hey, Obama and the Dems don't want a dependency class. No, no, no.
I don't know about where you live, but it is exceptionally difficult to get "welfare" in Georgia. For one thing, it's only even available to families with children PDF
Only 27% of poor families that qualify in Georgia currently receive benefits.
Then you can tackle the national obesity issue by redefining "fatsos" to 300lb or above.
I guess this is the intellectual progeny of "Ketchup is a vegetable."
I was the one who made the point. The point was that you are currently apoplectic - or, to be fair, fervently arguing - a point so bizarrely biased that even FOX NEWS doesn't dare do the same. In my opinion, this should tell you something about said point. YMMV.
I've also not seen any shoppers threaten to boycott Walmart, but perhaps I missed it.
As hokieneer said, I've seen it plenty as well; but I pay attention to human beings outside my building. I will agree, however, they are as effective as a kite in a hurricane.
Plenty of people on Fox News have said that the Dems underperformed in 2012 when it comes to the House. 2012 was a nice win for the Dems, but it was nothing like 2008. A positive, 2008-style "Hope and Change" campaign might have brought the Dems back into control of the House, but instead, the 2012 presidential campaign was a negative one with limited coattails in the House.
Way to qualify. I'd be curious who said that, because it's gotten no play.
2012 was a nice win for the Dems
Which we should surely be disappointed in, if I recall. But I'm glad you've come around to sanity that it was indeed a win. Thanks!
Good grief. Yes, Lassus, I'm the only person in America who has opined that the Dems underperformed in the House this year. I guess Debbie Wasserman Schultz, et al., were just faking us out — and stealing money from dumb donors — when they spoke of retaking the House for the past two years.
Out of curiosity, how many seats would the Dems have had to take for it to qualify as not underperforming? Are there specific seats that should have been won but weren't?
It can't be that, unless you accomplish every goal that everyone associated with the party says you can/will do, a particular election cycle is a failure. If so, didn't the GOP fail even more miserably? Their House majority was eroded. They failed to retake the Senate. They failed to retake the White House. By any measure, they failed to stem, in any significant way, the voter turnout tide of young and minority voters both coming out and supporting Dem candidates. And all this despite Karl Rove "faking us out" -- and yes, gasp, taking money from donors...with talk of doing the very things they failed to do.
I never said that 2012 was anything resembling a "failure" for the Dems. My point, which I expected to be entirely non-controversial, was that the Dems' position after the 2012 election is substantially weaker than it was in 2008, and *if I were a Dem* — again, God forbid — I'd be disappointed about that.
In Jan. 2009, Obama and the Dem-controlled House and Senate were going to "fundamentally change" the federal government, and all that. But that didn't happen in Obama's first term, despite the Dems having a filibuster-proof Senate for ~180 days, and it's not going to happen with the GOP in control of the House for the next two years.
It's going to be very interesting to see how Dems view Obama in 2015 and '16, when his second term will be winding down, if he's not able to deliver on the long list of liberal legislative expectations. If Obama couldn't get a major immigration bill or card check or climate-change legislation passed in 2009–10, I don't see how he's going to get any of it done, let alone all of it, with the GOP controlling the House. And if Obama is forced to start making concessions on spending, either because of the GOP or general economic and financial conditions, his eight years are liable to be a disappointment to the very same liberals who voted him into office.
I'd say you, Joe, Rants, and hokieneer (apologies for that last one if I'm confusing you with someone else).
So 3 or 4. You're waaaaaaaaaaaaaay off.
I know of no others. Perhaps Robinred has on his list a slew of non-liberals who made imaginary posts.
I think universal healthcare is a good thing, but as noted in the society I grew up in that doesn't imply any particular political outlook. I am quite a strong supporter of keeping the monarchy a part of Canadian politics, which isn't a particularly liberal position. I sort of like the cut of Edmund Burke's jib when it comes to political thought. For the purposes of discussion here (and the political culture of the United States) I guess I count as a liberal. But it's not something I'd think to self-apply.
You're not supposed to self-apply, you're supposed to wait for Ray to fabricate a definition and apply it to you.
How many seats would the Dems have had to win for it to qualify as not an underperformance? Are there specific seats that should have been taken, or is it just a generic number (presumably higher than the actual +8)?
Unless you can quantify what the Dems "should" have done, it is difficult to categorically label their actual performance as "disappointing."
Good Face and Harveys are certainly non-liberals.
Also, Ray, you should maybe figure out sometime that everyone to your left is not a liberal.
Now, I MAY be wrong, and my apologies if I am, but my recollection is thus: Szym, Swoboda, Dale Sams, SteveF, and hokieneer.
Am I close? And I will also admit there haven't been a lot of posts by some of these, but they've certainly all been in the last five pages.
I explained this a few pages ago, and I don't need a list, since I can actually remember exchanges on BTF and who says what to whom.
You monster.
Perhaps I need to upgrade my top hat and monocle.
poverty is among other things the outcome of an undereducated populace
we need to stop letting people choose to not be schooled because the cost of their choice of staying ignorant is to great
and spare me the stories of the college dropout millionaires. outliers are not a trend
and i am referring to high school dropouts for starters
this is an advanced society. it should be operated and run by informed inhabitants
What a snob.
That's either a terrible waste of neurons, or Rain Man territory.
To the extent Benghazi is a scandal, how is this the "end of the scandal"? Susan Rice assuredly knew there was no protest in Benghazi regarding that YouTube video, and yet she went on five Sunday morning talk shows and claimed otherwise.
It's not like Susan Rice is some hapless intern who was just following orders. She's the U.N. ambassador and has her own intelligence staff.
Suggesting a new handle for people, Steve?
Umm, Sullivan's attack on McCain makes no sense, unless Sullivan didn't quote the right portion of McCain's initial criticism. Because in the portion Sullivan quotes, McCain never claims that Rice was the one who edited the talking points:
Anyway, the DNI's newfound explanation makes no sense, because Clapper had already conveyed to lawmakers in a meeting that the DNI wasn't responsible for editing the talking points. So either he was lying then or he's lying now. Either way, nothing is "cleared up," and there's no need for the irascible douche to apologize.
He's not so good with humans. No, he's not a robot. Different thing.
we need to stop letting people choose to not be schooled because the cost of their choice of staying ignorant is to great
Good Face will agree with you on guns, education, not so much.
Of course, to benefit from being wrong you actually have to be able to admit to being wrong.
So you favor increased government subsidies for college tuition? It seems like everyone is already going who possibly can afford to go, and driving themselves into six-figure debt in order to do so. It's been considered essential for at least a generation. People who don't go are hardly "choosing" not to.
With the shape of the economy that we now have, finishing high school hardly matters if you're not continuing to college.
Subsidies don't make college more affordable; they just drive prices — and college debt — higher and higher.
This is a dubious proposition. There are all sorts of jobs that are available to HS grads that are unavailable to, or very difficult to obtain by, non-HS grads (police, fire dept., and other civil service jobs; military; trades; etc.).
i would disagree. there are other options than college if the individual is willing to commit or have others commit on his/her behalf.
college is not for everyone nor is it intended for everyone. frankly, i think the 'modern' college/university is an overpriced stalling device where too little learning and too much leisure is experienced by the participants.
If this is true, can I get my check back from Priebus?
Agree 100%. We need a more German system where some students learn real trades, rather than go to a over priced university.
You say that like it's a bad thing.
I actually think this is only partially true. Some economists did a study and showed that this was only about 10-20% of the price rise. Most had to do with status and competition as well as the return of investment of education. I will have to look up the study.
I agree with this, but I think those other options are fast disappearing. The society has shifted to a "college or nothing" model, which has caused training that ought to be provided by trade schools to be folded into universities at university prices.
Whether subsidies have driven costs up or not, that horse is out of the barn. Tuition prices are not going to come back down, and students need to pay them somehow. It's the same as anything else--prices do not come down once they've gone up, no matter the reason.
nothing is static nor should we accept that condition
Yeah, all those students parading up and down the main drag in their raccoon coats, swallowing goldfish and stuffing into phone booths, chanting "boolah boolah" at all hours, it's offensive.
That's what people were saying about the real estate market just 5 years ago. With more and more people — including disgruntled unemployed college grads — agitating about the high cost of college and the decreasing ROI, there could be some bumpy times ahead for U.S. colleges.
I whole-heartedly agree with that, too.
Found it. Kevin Carey, the director of the Education Policy Program at the New America Foundation. I do not vouch for it. Don't know the bias of this.
Meanwhile, here's a graph of college tuition, home prices, and U.S. CPI since 1978.
Me. I am proudly progressive (left, liberal). Obama is too centrist for me, but he is the best we have so go him.
And Harvey's in broad strokes I agree with you regarding education.
would this be a bad time for me to say i'm thankful for this crazy country of ours and the weirdos who argue about anything and everything on btf?
edit: And this isn't just colleges, visit a new high school, or heck, Elementary school. They're ridiculousness.
Well, I am a Reds fan. Definitely not into Judge Wapner though.
Mostly it is being good at remembering names (or, in this case, the analog, handles) and paying attention to what people write.
Definitely, definitely remembering handles.
No.
Started holiday drinking tonight, I see.
I may understand their leanings to a point, but I also can easily be surprised 2 weeks from now by any of their posts as well. I say that as a high compliment to all 3.
I give Thanks to all, in fact....
Treder's a liberal. Andy's a liberal. Lassus...oh, poor Lassus. Def totes liberally 90's era pony tail guy. Me?
#### off.
This conversation bores me.
I've been drinking.
no, but give me a minute.
Me. I am proudly progressive (left, liberal). Obama is too centrist for me, but he is the best we have so go him.
That's me too.
I am thankful for BTF as well and the community here. Even when we disagree there is a shared spirit here that is not present many other places. And that's really nice.
And thanks Howie I appreciate the kind words.
I see you have started the holiday drinking early too.
One thing I have noticed is that the things the government subsidizes all increase in price at greater than inflation. Namely, higher education, medical care, and housing. There are some other factors as well in terms of lack of substitution and inequality of information (esp in medical), but I think Joe is making a salient point here. (Liberals, please don't kill me for saying that)
As opposed to, what, food and gasoline?
Gasoline pricing is skewed by a cartel. Over the longer run, the price of food is lower. Over the past 3-5 years, food costs have increased, but lots of commodities increase over the short run. Medical care and higher education have seen much higher increases in cost for a much longer period. Look at the last 20-30 years.
Well I'm glad the big librul gummint don't subsidize neither of them.
The problem with the title of the linked article is its specious use of "Allows".
Walmart was given little choice, in those cases. It's only in the US, where it's more able to buy the appropriate legislation, that it can pseudolegally circumvent unionization.
"Allows", indeed.
In all seriousness, it's as productive as getting drunk and spending the evening explaining things to your dog.
Gee, Ray, I don't think peoples' regard for your intelligence is stunningly low...
.
You're not the man for the job since admitting facts isn't your deal, but it would be interesting to hear an intelligence on the right come to grips with modern capitalism's need for a reserve pool of labor (namely, a sizable percentage of unemployed people whose presence suppresses wages both in lean and boom times, and who are ready to hop to when booms require sudden injections of cheap labor) in order to function efficiently, and to the benefit of the owners of the means of production.
Indeed, if we imagine someone without prospects, who upon graduating high school will be limited for the next fifty years to menial work in a big box store, with little hope of benefits or advancement, and no hope of a job with any sort of dignity or real responsibility, where they do little but assist in the sale of shoddy crap in order to continue to line the pockets of, say, the Waltons, whose net worth is that of the bottom 41% of the country, they'd be something of a fool to funnel themselves into a system that does that to them.
It's pretentious to criticize that person's decision to collect welfare, homeschool their children, learn to paint, run their own garden, work off the books for necessary extra cash, build a house off the grid that necessarily doesn't meet code, and so on. I'm reluctant to concede that person's life's economic course should be dictated by people as morally bankrupt as Scott Walker, Sam Walton, Mitt Romney, and everyone in Congress who sold their votes in favor of the latest round of 'right to work for chump change' laws.
.
If you think money has less influence in politics in Mexico than it does in the U.S., you are mistaken.
We get lulled into thinking that most people are just like us, but that isn't true - we're the top 5-10% intellectually, and sometimes reminding ourselves of that is necessary to curb the desire to judge the lifestyle decisions of others I'm addressing myself here as much as anyone). When I was younger and more insecure I'd have traded my brains for looks/charm any day, but now that I'm more mature and have a beautiful loving wife, I realize that intelligence is something I'm very thankful for. All of you should be as well. Anyone with the free time to wile away here should certainly be thankful that they aren't at Walmart getting ready for the barbarian hordes beginning to amass outside their front doors. I'm sure some of them are legitimately afraid for their safety. To my American friends - put down your smartphones and tablets, turn off the computer, and spend some time with your friends and families. This is the only day when its socially acceptable to wear sweat pants to the dinner table, so take advantage and enjoy your day. Happy Thanksgiving.
This is very Gen X and before type thinking. Newer generations are starting to view work differently than Gen X'ers and before. The X generation treated work and employment like an insult. Like it was something they had to do to earn cash so they could go out and do stuff. Thus working in a coffee shop or retail store or whatever was a demeaning insult to themselves. Baby Boomers were taught the sky was the limit so go out there and take it thus if they pulled an Al Bundy it would be a sign of failure. But so far the newest generation coming on-line have a different outlook on employment. They pick jobs they like and then embrace them. They go whole hog into their field no matter how trivial or silly others might think it is and I love it. I know a 22 year old female who has decided she wants to be a butcher and so she works as a butcher in NYC. She isn't some person who simply sits in the back of Piggly-Wiggly grinding beef all day but getting out there and learning all she can on butchery and such. She is not alone in doing stuff like this. It almost seems like the entire service industry and then some is seeing a renaissance of drive, intelligence, energy, and innovation in most major cities and it is wonderful. A ton of smart energetic young people are choosing not to become lawyers or accountants or doctors and instead are becoming hairdressers, mixologists, butchers, cheesemongers, stylists, so on and so on and they do so willingly and gladly. We'll see what happens in 10 or so years when they start to have families whether or not they keep this up but right now is a great time to be a drone.
I'm forever thankful for a million people and things in what's so far been a ridiculously fortunate life, but at this particular moment what I'm most thankful for is the common sense exhibited by the American people on November 6th.
It seems like an awful lot of hassle. I'm pretty cheap, but the convenience of not trampling young children at midnight is worth a fair amount to me.
It seems like an awful lot of hassle. I'm pretty cheap, but the convenience of not trampling young children at midnight is worth a fair amount to me.
Totally agree. That last post of mine was for anthropological purposes only.
Seconded. I am very cheap, don't like crowds and don't like shopping*. So I don't buy anything Black Friday generally.
* Book shopping, music shopping, and electronic shopping doesn't count.
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