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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

OTP November 2012 - Moneypoll! The Pundits vs. The Election-Data Nerds

Come next Tuesday night, we’ll get a resolution (let’s hope) to a great ongoing battle of 2012: not just the Presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, but the one between the pundits trying to analyze that race with their guts and a new breed of statistics gurus trying to forecast it with data.

In Election 2012 as seen by the pundits–political journalists on the trail, commentators in cable-news studios–the campaign is a jump ball. There’s a slight lead for Mitt Romney in national polls and slight leads for Barack Obama in swing-state polls, and no good way of predicting next Tuesday’s outcome beyond flipping a coin. ...

Bonus link: Esquire - The Enemies of Nate Silver

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 31, 2012 at 11:42 PM | 11298 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: mr president, off-topic, politics, sabermetrics, usa

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   9901. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4309897)
From Ross Douthat in the article Nick quoted in 9795:

Likewise with the growing number of unmarried Americans, especially unmarried women. Yes, social issues like abortion help explain why these voters lean Democratic. But the more important explanation is that single life is generally more insecure and chaotic than married life, and single life with children — which is now commonplace for women under 30 — is almost impossible to navigate without the support the welfare state provides.
While it would surely increase the amount of support needed from the state, I've long been of the opinion that the age old argument, support isn't for the mother it's for the child, no longer holds water in many cases. Assuming the state has gone out of the business of compelling women to carry pregnancies to term, and assuming that the man has been clear he doesn't want a child, and assuming the woman has no religious imperative against abortion, child support isn't for the child; rather, it subsidizes the woman's decision to carry a pregnancy to term. There would be hellacious problems involved in freeing some men from the obligation of, let's call it, 'unmarried mother support', but it's worth looking at.

The liberal image of a non-churchgoing American is probably the “spiritual but not religious” seeker, or the bright young atheist reading Richard Dawkins.
Sorry to disagree, but this is the kind of random, "Libruls think x" silliness that makes Douthat not worth reading.

To wit,

..all of this makes it easy for liberals to just celebrate the emerging America, to minimize the costs of disrupted families and hollowed-out communities,..
The left has long--essentially always, as it's a fundamental concern--been hugely interested in community building and the effect of economic distress and dislocation on working families and neighborhoods. Douthat coughs up this kind of nonsense the way a cat let loose in a carpet store upchucks hairballs.

edit:

I would rather pay for none of it.

Me too. Paying for condoms and pills undermines the moral case for abortion. My body, my choice, can only exist with an additional clause, my responsibility.
Read this after posting, but it seemed to fit my thesis nicely.

And speaking of the reference to goat meat, upthread, I had a friend who, when his gf split with him, got custody of their male goat. The goat ate the siding off his house and used to charge and butt him when he got home from work. The goat did like the platform we built for it, though. Watching the ornery cuss surveying the world from his four foot high perch was pretty funny. A little like seeing Romney on the stump.
   9902. BurlyBuehrle Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4309898)
On the gaming front, is anyone playing Diablo 3?
   9903. The Good Face Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:21 PM (#4309902)
On the gaming front, is anyone playing Diablo 3?


The Diablo games are essentially a pie eating contest where the reward for winning is more pie.
   9904. Ray (RDP) Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:34 PM (#4309909)
If it requires a bit of inconsistency to get the job done, I guess I am OK with that.


And thus why I say liberals lack principles; whim carries the day.

I am also of the view that logical inconsistency and whim are the hallmarks of arguments with elements of intellectual dishonesty in them.
   9905. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4309914)
If it requires a bit of inconsistency to get the job done, I guess I am OK with that.

Obviously. If I read your comments correctly, you're against the government banning things because doing so is anti-choice, but you have no problem with government mandates, despite the fact that mandates are, by definition, just as anti-choice as bans.

Heads liberals win, tails non-liberals lose. Quite a racket you've designed there.
   9906. McCoy Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4309915)
And thus why I say liberals lack principles; whim carries the day.

I am also of the view that logical inconsistency and whim are the hallmarks of arguments with elements of intellectual dishonesty in them.



Take that reality!
   9907. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4309922)
Thomas Ricks being interviewed by Fox on Benghazi

Hilarity ensues.


I've known Tom for 30 years, and I've never been more pleased to say that. FOX was fortunate that they cut him short, since he's got zero tolerance for the sort of BS that FOX's trained seals are famous for barking.
   9908. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4309924)
On the gaming front, is anyone playing Diablo 3?


I've put in about 170 hours of play, and I'm done with it.
I have no interest in using the auction house (real money or fake), and I don't want to have to tweak my characters so they can maximize their haul. I've finished Nightmare with each class, and Hell with my barbarian.

I don't have any interest in farming areas to get those special keys/rings that have been added to the game.

I'm ready to move on to Torchlight 2 ($9.99 on Steam on Sunday).
   9909. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4309926)
   9910. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4309930)
I've known Tom for 30 years, and I've never been more pleased to say that. FOX was fortunate that they cut him short, since he's got zero tolerance for the sort of BS that FOX's trained seals are famous for barking.

So the deaths of four Americans, including an American ambassador, was "over-hyped," but the endless coverage of Seamus, "binders," "bayonets," Big Bird, and all the rest was high-quality, dispassionate coverage by the U.S. news media that was meant only to inform the electorate.

Media bias? What media bias?
   9911. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 04:59 PM (#4309934)
So - if instead of a mandate that birth control MUST be covered, would you be OK with a minor PPACA rewrite that would simply outlaw the practice of an employer banning coverage of birth control?

I don't see a difference between saying something must be given and saying something must not not be given.

The simple fact is that women's health care has a different set of needs than male health care - frame it however you like, but once we've decided to mandate health insurance and subsidize it, it's only rational that we need to define those coverage minimums

Easy. The coverage minimum is the minimum level in which people choose to purchase it from another free party.

Once we've decided to mandate health insurance and subsidize it, it's only rational that we need to define those coverage minimums

Ah, so limiting freedom becomes the excuse for limiting freedom. Nifty trick that. Maybe government should subsidize computer purchases and then use that as an excuse for regulating freedom of speech!

   9912. Greg K Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4309935)
I'm ready to move on to Torchlight 2 ($9.99 on Steam on Sunday).

I downloaded the demo after having played Diablo 3 for a while. I'm pretty much a novice when it comes to non-historical simulation games, but they kind of seem like the exact same game (format wise). Is it the same company?

Diablo isn't my cup of tea, but I will say this for it - it got me my kick ass new gaming computer. A friend of mine wanted someone to play Diablo 3 with online so he made me a computer out of spare parts lying around his house. It is by far the best computer I've ever had and is the first time in my life where I actually have the specs to play new games as they come out.
   9913. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:01 PM (#4309936)
So the deaths of four Americans, including an American ambassador, was "over-hyped," but the endless coverage of Seamus, "binders," "bayonets," Big Bird, and all the rest was high-quality, dispassionate coverage by the U.S. news media that was meant only to inform the electorate.


When one wakes up in the morning, confident of your own goodness, brilliance, and the lack of such in everybody who disagrees with them, regardless of anything you've ever personally done, this seems logical as a course in the fight for evil.
   9914. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:04 PM (#4309938)
I've known Tom for 30 years, and I've never been more pleased to say that. FOX was fortunate that they cut him short, since he's got zero tolerance for the sort of BS that FOX's trained seals are famous for barking.

So the deaths of four Americans, including an American ambassador, was "over-hyped," but the endless coverage of Seamus, "binders," "bayonets," Big Bird, and all the rest was high-quality, dispassionate coverage by the U.S. news media that was meant only to inform the electorate.

Media bias? What media bias?


That's great, now try actually watching what Tom said. It'll only take you a minute and 24 seconds plus an introductory 10 second advertisement. You can multitask while you're doing it if your attention span lags.
   9915. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4309944)
I downloaded the demo after having played Diablo 3 for a while. I'm pretty much a novice when it comes to non-historical simulation games, but they kind of seem like the exact same game (format wise). Is it the same company?


No, not the same company, but they have the same ancestors. Two of the founders of Runic Games (Torchlight and Torchlight 2) are from the development team Blizzard North (Diablo).

One thing I recognized in Torchlight was that the sound of coins/treasure hitting the floor was almost identical to Diablo (& Diablo II). It triggered the same automatic response in my brain.

Torchlight has a bit more of a cartoony feel to it, while the Diablo franchise is much darker/moodier/serious.

Another entry in that format (fantasy themed action role playing dungeon crawler) that is a lot of fun (but a bit older than Torchlight) is Titan's Quest.
   9916. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4309952)
Diablo 3 didn't really catch my attention span long-term. It's too much of the same thing, there's not a lot of variety other than playing harder difficulties.
   9917. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4309953)
So the deaths of four Americans, including an American ambassador, was "over-hyped," but the endless coverage of Seamus, "binders," "bayonets," Big Bird, and all the rest was high-quality, dispassionate coverage by the U.S. news media that was meant only to inform the electorate.

When one wakes up in the morning, confident of your own goodness, brilliance, and the lack of such in everybody who disagrees with them, regardless of anything you've ever personally done, this seems logical as a course in the fight for evil.


Physician, heal thyself. The bias, in this case, is in the first (italicized) quotation. Note how the news story that the poster believes to be important - the one that he is biased in favor of - is written in such as way as to maximize the assumed import of the story. "The deaths of four Americans, including the American ambassador..." yadda, yadda, yadda. The counter-example is summarized in such a way as to make the underlying policy points seem as trivial as possible. It's not the candidate's inability to name a qualified female executive during his time as Governor; it's "binders." It's not the candidate's hacktastic overselling of "military weakness" by arguing that the Navy is running out of ships; it's "bayonets." Etc, et al.
   9918. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:21 PM (#4309957)
Physician, heal thyself.

No, I'm libertarian solely because I have no confidence in my objective goodness and brilliance. Let everyone find their own path with their own fellow travelers. If you and a few other million want to form a collective and pool all your financial resources and take from it each according to your need, have at it. Just don't push your religion on me.
   9919. spike Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4309958)
So the deaths of four Americans, including an American ambassador, was "over-hyped," but the endless coverage of Seamus, "binders," "bayonets," Big Bird, and all the rest was high-quality, dispassionate coverage by the U.S. news media that was meant only to inform the electorate.


Ricks answers that very question in the interview, but good, which is when Foxy McTalkingpoints throws in the towel.
   9920. Langer Monk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4309959)
Diablo 3 didn't really catch my attention span long-term. It's too much of the same thing, there's not a lot of variety other than playing harder difficulties.


The endless Diablo clones or WoW clones have completely turned me off from the vast majority of 'new' games. However, if anyone still enjoys an occasional Left for Dead (1 or 2) or would like to try out the aforementioned Magicka, I'm game.
   9921. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4309961)
So the deaths of four Americans, including an American ambassador, was "over-hyped,"


I think it was covered quite well.

There were stories about what happened, about the victims, about what they did for their country and how it was a tragedy that they died the way they did.

What was over-hyped was the need for certain parts of the media (Fox) and politicians (McCain, et al.) to try and turn a tragedy into a scandal. Both of them pounded on that door to respectability, but no one let them in and eventually everyone found out in the end that there wasn't any real "scandal".
   9922. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4309963)
So - if instead of a mandate that birth control MUST be covered, would you be OK with a minor PPACA rewrite that would simply outlaw the practice of an employer banning coverage of birth control?

I don't see a difference between saying something must be given and saying something must not not be given.


Sure there's a difference... You have to remember that it's not the carriers excluding coverage, it's the employers... The simple fact is that most people get insurance through their workplace. Again - you're just picking at threads to dance around the larger issue. If employers offer coverage and accepting that our current system is irrevocably reliant on ESPs, whose 'rights' as a part of that contract wins out? Does the employee lose medically accepted coverage because the employer is ideologically opposed to such coverage even if the employee wants it and the 3rd party (the insurer) would also wish to provide it? Who wins if two of the three parties to this contract agree on something in opposition to the 3rd party?

The simple fact is that women's health care has a different set of needs than male health care - frame it however you like, but once we've decided to mandate health insurance and subsidize it, it's only rational that we need to define those coverage minimums

Easy. The coverage minimum is the minimum level in which people choose to purchase it from another free party.


It's just another thread -- again, if you want to argue the larger question of insurance mandates and corresponding subsidies - so be it... but unless you're essentially hoping to collapse the whole ball of wax by jenga'ing certain provisions - requiring 'coverage' and providing subsidies just logically requires minimums.... without that, what's to prevent 'me' from offering policies that cover precisely nothing - pocketing both premiums and your tax dollars in exchange for subsidies - by simply writing policies that are riddled with fine print? Sure - the 'market' would eventually put me out of business, but without statutorily defined minimums -- and a good set of lawyers -- I guarantee that I could write up policies that would survive outright fraud litigation, but still allow me to pocket some short-term cash in a business venture that I have zero expectation of existing past a few years.

Once we've decided to mandate health insurance and subsidize it, it's only rational that we need to define those coverage minimums

Ah, so limiting freedom becomes the excuse for limiting freedom. Nifty trick that. Maybe government should subsidize computer purchases and then use that as an excuse for regulating freedom of speech!


You're forgetting that health care coverage isn't some theoretical "thing" that we can't define.

Medical science is, at its core, science. I'm not saying that the AMA/AHA/etc are wholly honest brokers (far from it) - but at its core, medical science is quite capable of defining a proper and reasonable menu of coverage.

Not everything has to end up in the vacuum of theory...
   9923. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:26 PM (#4309965)
No, I'm libertarian solely because I have no confidence in my objective goodness and brilliance. Let everyone find their own path with their own fellow travelers.


You're apparently a libertarian because you just can't find it within yourself to go to a chakra tuning at the local meditation palace and just admit that you're a friggin' hippie. Find their own path. Good lord.
   9924. Random Transaction Generator Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4309966)
The endless Diablo clones or WoW clones have completely turned me off from the vast majority of 'new' games. However, if anyone still enjoys an occasional Left for Dead (1 or 2) or would like to try out the aforementioned Magicka, I'm game.


If I didn't already have over 500 hours in L4D (1 & 2 combined), I'd be up for some more.
And Magicka was fun, but only in the multiplayer co-op chaos of accidentally killing your teammates when you crossed the streams.

I think the real value can be found in the independent games. $5 to $10, for about 15-20 hours of quality play is something I find quite reasonable. Steam is a treasure-trove of these kinds of games. Sort by price and Metacritic score, and there is lots to choose from.
   9925. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:27 PM (#4309968)
That's great, now try actually watching what Tom said. It'll only take you a minute and 24 seconds plus an introductory 10 second advertisement. You can multitask while you're doing it if your attention span lags.

I did watch the video, and it was little more than performance art. The guy obviously went on Fox News with the intention of poking Fox News in the eye, which he did, but his larger argument was specious. It's not like the other media outlets were dutifully reporting the deaths of contractors while Fox was ignoring that story to "over-hype" Benghazi. Ricks came across like a clown looking to sell books and generate web clicks. It was a "Baba Booey" performance, but without the humor.
   9926. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4309971)
medical science is quite capable of defining a proper and reasonable menu of coverage.

Then, no doubt, the insurance company run by medical science will do a fantastic job at finding consenting adults to freely enter into a mutually agreed upon contract for services. I've got no problem with a public option, so long as it's run as an actual company would be, i.e., no dipping into tax revenues to subsidize premiums.
   9927. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4309972)
You're apparently a libertarian because you just can't find it within yourself to go to a chakra tuning at the local meditation palace and just admit that you're a friggin' hippie.

Live and let live was the only thing the hippies got right.
   9928. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4309973)
Sure there's a difference...

You've got to be kidding. There's no difference between requiring someone to do something and requiring that person not to not do something.
   9929. spike Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4309974)
What was over-hyped was the need for certain parts of the media (Fox) and politicians (McCain, et al.) to try and turn a tragedy into a scandal.

And just like the Boehner attempt to hold the SSI tax cut expiration hostage to the debt ceiling, the miscalculation winds up costing them extra - in this case, any idea that Susan Rice can be prevented from becoming Sec State is finished.
   9930. Lassus Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:35 PM (#4309975)
You will be welcomed on Vulcan, Ray.
   9931. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4309976)
And just like the Boehner attempt to hold the SSI tax cut expiration hostage to the debt ceiling, the miscalculation winds up costing them extra - in this case, any idea that Susan Rice can be prevented from becoming Sec State is finished.

Nonsense. From the GOP's standpoint, it's better to have Rice nominated and then be able to grill her under oath, on live TV, than it is for her to not be nominated at all.
   9932. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4309977)
There's no difference between requiring someone to do something and requiring that person not to not do something.

"Ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to prove to you not only that Freddy Quimby is guilty, but that he is also innocent of not being guilty!"

   9933. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4309978)
So the deaths of four Americans, including an American ambassador, was "over-hyped," but the endless coverage of Seamus, "binders," "bayonets," Big Bird, and all the rest was high-quality, dispassionate coverage by the U.S. news media that was meant only to inform the electorate.

Media bias? What media bias?


Seamus was an easy punchline, like LBJ pulling his dog's ears or Carter's killer rabbit. If you blinked, you missed binders. Bayonets actually had some merit as a rhetorical slapdown to a stupid talking point, but it may have disappeared faster than binders. Big Bird was a supposed zinger that Romney brought to the table. So whining that it backfired on him, especially since the 85 billion online "Sesame Street" images with words on them didn't flip a single vote, is the mournful howl of the loser.

Obviously the media does a shitty job at a lot of things, and is congentially distracted by silly words, snappy comebacks, trumped-up conflict (including the Trumped kind) and the neverending Create-A-Scandal kit. (Now with extra "-gates"!) But you're going to have to do a whole lot better than that list. An equally ephemeral list of temporary Google hits could be compiled for Obama, the supposed recipient of all this one-way media bias.

Nonsense. From the GOP's standpoint, it's better to have Rice nominated and then be able to grill her under oath, on live TV, than it is for her to not be nominated at all.

Yes, and the results of the election put the Democrats on the defensive, since they got extra Senate seats they'll only have to fight to hold onto in 2018. They fell right into the GOP's trap.
   9934. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:38 PM (#4309979)
Live and let live was the only thing the hippies got right.


Sex and drugs was pretty good too. They did screw up rock and roll pretty badly, though.
   9935. spike Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4309984)
They did screw up rock and roll pretty badly, though.

As much as I agree with this, they are far from the only, or even worst culprit. Fabian, Pat Boone, Steve Allen, and Mitch Miller had pretty well done it in before the hippies got hold of it.
   9936. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4309985)
Live and let live was the only thing the hippies got right.


Well plenty of hippies had the courage of their convictions to go off and form hippie communes, where they'd attempt to live their unwashed philosophy. I wonder what's keeping the glibertarians from doing the same and establishing Galtopia in some remote area? It's almost as if they're perfectly content sponging off all the public works gifted to them as a result of centuries of civic investment at gunpoint.
   9937. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:43 PM (#4309986)
Sex and drugs was pretty good too.

Oh, I figured those were wrapped up in live and let live.

They did screw up rock and roll pretty badly, though.

I never said you didn't have impeccable music taste. I didn't know the New Pornographers until you bought Electric Version.
   9938. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4309988)
As much as I agree with this, they are far from the only, or even worst culprit


As much as I'd hate it, I'd listen to the entire Fabian catalog before one single sitting of Crosby, Stills & Nash.
   9939. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4309989)
Diablo 3 didn't really catch my attention span long-term. It's too much of the same thing, there's not a lot of variety other than playing harder difficulties.


The hardest difficulty is apparently just a gear check. I didn't get it as I was going to get Guild Wars 2 instead, and nothing I've heard has made me regret that decision. Diablo 1 and 2 were both fantastic, but Diablo 3 is the same game, except with it structured to push people into the Auction House to generate more money for Blizzard.

I haven't seen a strategy game that would interest me in a while. Europa Universalis is a lot of micromanaging, and I've gotten tired of the Civilization and Heroes of Might and Magic series at this point (having played Civ 3 and HoMM 2, 3, and 4 for a few hundred hours or more). The latest one I'd recommend is Sins of a Solar Empire, which had a lot of potential that I'm not sure was ever realized in the expansions.

One game that I would recommend is Avadon: The Black Fortress. The guy who made it has made some really good games.
   9940. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4309990)
Yes, and the results of the election put the Democrats on the defensive, since they got extra Senate seats they'll only have to fight to hold onto in 2018. They fell right into the GOP's trap.

Absurd comparison. The average American probably has no idea that Hillary Clinton plans to resign as secretary of state, let alone that there's a political chess match underway with regards to Susan Rice's viability as Clinton's successor.
   9941. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4309993)

Then, no doubt, the insurance company run by medical science will do a fantastic job at finding consenting adults to freely enter into a mutually agreed upon contract for services. I've got no problem with a public option, so long as it's run as an actual company would be, i.e., no dipping into tax revenues to subsidize premiums.


Again, though -- it's not the insurance companies who are balking at contraception coverage... it's religiously affiliated (and the occasional ideological tilted) employer who is balking at contraceptive coverage (or more accurately, contraceptive coverage of a certain nature, targeted towards women).

As for the PO - assuming you'd be amendable to "not for profit" being prepended to "actual company"... that's fine. Then you would have a fight with the insurance companies... Medicare beats any insurer when it comes to MLRs -- it also spends more per beneficiary, but that's a factor of its coverage pool over anything else.

Maybe private insurers are able to stay in business by solely selling to the young, single (or, non-dependent having singles), and healthy... but if you give me a large enough program without shareholders expecting dividends, I feel pretty sure that I could put private insurers by and large out of business... at least, beyond those that would cater to boutique sorts of coverage a public option couldn't.

Running my PO as a NfP, the key would simply be having cutthroat rates such that I could steal those young and healthy away from the private market... Given the PPACA requirements against things like rescission - I'd like my odds.

   9942. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4309994)
there's a political chess match underway with regards to Susan Rice's viability as Clinton's successor.

Uh huh. And the Republicans even get to play white.
   9943. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4309995)

I never said you didn't have impeccable music taste. I didn't know the New Pornographers until you bought Electric Version.


Wait...

I thought it was Shredder who spread the gospel of the Vancouver scene... or was that just Destroyer/Bejar NP involvement?

In any case, I heartily agree that the New Pornographers ought to be the common tie that binds humanity together...
   9944. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:57 PM (#4309998)
I didn't get it as I was going to get Guild Wars 2 instead, and nothing I've heard has made me regret that decision.

Ooooo, what server are you on? Not a lot of the saber video game crowd has been into GW2.
   9945. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4309999)
BTW...

Not to relive the overperform/underperform debate... We're nearing certification in many states - and it's looking like even money that Obama will end up crossing the 51% threshold. Dave Wasserman from Cook Reports has the most comprehensive numbers - but he's currently got Obama up by about 3.3% (Obama 50.8, Romney 47.49) - with most outstanding results coming from heavily Democratic areas... It's looking likely that the final margin will be about 3.5% or so, maybe a bit more - but also fairly likely that Obama will cross 51%.

If he does so, he would be only the 6th US President in history to cross 51% of total popular vote twice (the others being Jackson, FDR, Grant, McKinley, and Ike).
   9946. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4310005)
Again, though -- it's not the insurance companies who are balking at contraception coverage... it's religiously affiliated

You've pencil-sketched the scene, it's feeling Byzantine.

They're not balking, they're choosing to not include contraception coverage as a component of their compensation offer prospective employees, thus simply reducing their offer by the value of the contraception coverage. No different than offering x% matching 401k contributions rather than another company offering y%.
   9947. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4310007)
The hardest difficulty is apparently just a gear check. I didn't get it as I was going to get Guild Wars 2 instead, and nothing I've heard has made me regret that decision. Diablo 1 and 2 were both fantastic, but Diablo 3 is the same game, except with it structured to push people into the Auction House to generate more money for Blizzard.

I haven't seen a strategy game that would interest me in a while. Europa Universalis is a lot of micromanaging, and I've gotten tired of the Civilization and Heroes of Might and Magic series at this point (having played Civ 3 and HoMM 2, 3, and 4 for a few hundred hours or more). The latest one I'd recommend is Sins of a Solar Empire, which had a lot of potential that I'm not sure was ever realized in the expansions.

One game that I would recommend is Avadon: The Black Fortress. The guy who made it has made some really good games.


I'm probably in the minority because I actually didn't think Elemental was that bad - but I think Fallen Enchantress fulfills an awful lot of the undelivered promise of the original.

FWIW - Derek Paxton (whom Wardell brought on board to fix Elemental/deliver Enchantress) also has a free Civ4 mod (Fall From Heaven) that I think is every bit as good as any other Fantasy 4Xer on the market. It's tight, interesting, has a great backstory, and it found a way to properly blend TBS/RPG almost perfectly.
   9948. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4310009)
If he does so, he would be only the 6th US President in history to cross 51% of total popular vote twice (the others being Jackson, FDR, Grant, McKinley, and Ike).

I guess Reagan will have to settle for winning 489 and 525 electoral votes vs. Obama's 365 and 332.
   9949. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:07 PM (#4310010)
You've pencil-sketched the scene, it's feeling Byzantine.

They're not balking, they're choosing to not include contraception coverage as a component of their compensation offer prospective employees, thus simply reducing their offer by the value of the contraception coverage. No different than offering x% matching 401k contributions rather than another company offering y%.


Does not financially compute... Again - the insurers were only too happy to offer separate policies... it's a much better deal for the insurer to give their beneficiaries cheap contraception than it is to pay for the downside.

No one made the decision on financial grounds - it was made on ideological grounds.
   9950. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4310014)
If he does so, he would be only the 6th US President in history to cross 51% of total popular vote twice (the others being Jackson, FDR, Grant, McKinley, and Ike).


I guess Reagan will have to settle for winning 489 and 525 electoral votes.


That and being dead, I guess... zombification attempts excepted.
   9951. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4310015)

Ooooo, what server are you on? Not a lot of the saber video game crowd has been into GW2.


Currently on Northern Shiverpeaks, but I go back and forth between there and Stormbluff Isle. What server do you frequent?
   9952. Greg K Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:09 PM (#4310017)
In any case, I heartily agree that the New Pornographers ought to be the common tie that binds humanity together...

My one and only triumph in the world of music nerdom was my first week in Nottingham. Not knowing anyone in the entire nation I decided to strike up a conversation with the barman at the pub over lunch. Apparently he had his finger on the pulse of the local music scene and so we turned to that subject - mostly him listing off bands and me pretending I'd heard of every third one just to keep the conversation alive. But he did mention Neko Case had come through Nottingham a little while ago so I jumped on that and said "Ah! The New Pornographers, I like them!" He had never heard of them (though oddly he was very familiar with Neko Case), and actually didn't believe me that she was involved with this (frankly made-up-sounding) band. It was a very odd experience in that he spent the rest of the conversation trying to convince me I was mistaken, until finally he gave up and I went home.

EDIT:
Also, people. Stop recommending video games! I've already downloaded three this week, which is roughly three over my allowed limit.
   9953. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:24 PM (#4310027)
My one and only triumph in the world of music nerdom was my first week in Nottingham. Not knowing anyone on the entire nation I decided to strike up a conversation with the barman at the pub over lunch. Apparently he had his finger on the pulse of the local music scene and so we turned to that subject - mostly him listing off bands and me pretending I'd heard of every third one just to keep the conversation alive. But he did mention Neko Case had come through Nottingham a little while ago so I jumped on that and said "Ah! The New Pornographers, I like them!" He had never heard of them (though oddly he was very familiar with Neko Case), and actually didn't believe me that she was involved with this (frankly made-up-sounding) band. It was a very odd experience in that he spent the rest of the conversation trying to convince me I was mistaken, until finally he gave up and I went home.


They're such an odd supergroup, especially in an indie sense -- ordinarily/historically, it just seems that such groups tend to draw fans upwards from their roots/solo careers/original bands and they tend to lack longetivity (just thinking here of older efforts like Blind Faith, etc)... However, I have to admit -- I wasn't particularly fond of most of the NP roots until enjoying them gave me an excuse to go back and give artists like Destroyer or Neko Case a second listen. I'm still a bigger fan of the sum total than the individual parts, but I'm continually amazed at how often I thread into the subsets via the supergroup itself.... I completely missed Zumpano in the 90s, for example, but trekked back to them only via Newman solo and then back to his early stuff.
   9954. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:26 PM (#4310029)
Again - the insurers were only too happy to offer separate policies... it's a much better deal for the insurer to give their beneficiaries cheap contraception than it is to pay for the downside.

Someone may offer me a great deal on broccoli. Doesn't mean I'm going to take advantage of it.
   9955. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:30 PM (#4310035)
FWIW - Derek Paxton (whom Wardell brought on board to fix Elemental/deliver Enchantress) also has a free Civ4 mod (Fall From Heaven) that I think is every bit as good as any other Fantasy 4Xer on the market. It's tight, interesting, has a great backstory, and it found a way to properly blend TBS/RPG almost perfectly.


Heh, which is where we began back at [9740] where I was trying to decide between getting Enchantress or Civ IV/Fall From Heaven.

Since you've played both, how would you compare/contrast them and which would you recommend if you had to choose?
   9956. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4310037)
Currently on Northern Shiverpeaks, but I go back and forth between there and Stormbluff Isle. What server do you frequent?

Jade Quarry. Do you do any WvW? I've played a lot against Stormbluff Isles on WvW. I'm afraid to leave my server at the moment though as it's full!
   9957. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:37 PM (#4310040)
Jade Quarry. Do you do any WvW? I've played a lot against Stormbluff Isles on WvW. I'm afraid to leave my server at the moment though as it's full!


I did some WvW. Got tired of 3 hour queues for it as a result of tons of people on the server. Probably get back into it soon on Northern Shiverpeaks, as there are few lines. Right now I'm mostly doing Fractals of the Mists, which is pretty fun as you get to higher difficulties.
   9958. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4310041)
If he does so, he would be only the 6th US President in history to cross 51% of total popular vote twice (the others being Jackson, FDR, Grant, McKinley, and Ike).

I guess Reagan will have to settle for winning 489 and 525 electoral votes vs. Obama's 365 and 332.


Well, I guess Obama will have to settle for being alive, so double nyah-nyah-neener-neener.

Seriously, though...

Career electoral votes, 1816-present
(*must have 100 or more, except for Fillmore)

Franklin Roosevelt 1,876
Richard Nixon 1,040
Ronald Reagan 1,015
Dwight Eisenhower 899
Bill Clinton 749
Grover Cleveland 729
Woodrow Wilson 712
Barack Obama 697
George Bush Sr. 594
William McKinley 563
George W. Bush 557
Herbert Hoover 503
Ulysses Grant 500
Andrew Jackson 496
William J. Bryan 493
Lyndon Johnson 486
Teddy Roosevelt 424
James Monroe 424
Warren G. Harding 404
Abraham Lincoln 392
Calvin Coolidge 382
Benjamin Harrison 378
Jimmy Carter 346
William H. Taft 329
William H. Harrison 307
Harry Truman 303
John Kennedy 303
Thomas Dewey 288
Al Gore 266
John Kerry 251
Franklin Pierce 254
Charles Hughes 254
Gerald Ford 240
Martin Van Buren 230
James Garfield 214
Mitt Romney 206
Henry Clay 191
Hubert Humphrey 191
Rutherford B. Hayes 185
James Blaine 182
James Buchanan 174
John McCain 173
James Polk 170
John Quincy Adams 168
Zachary Taylor 163
Adlai Stevenson 162
Robert Dole 159
Alton Parker 140
John Davis 136
James Cox 127
Michael Dukakis 111
Millard Fillmore 8
   9959. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:38 PM (#4310042)
But he did mention Neko Case had come through Nottingham a little while ago so I jumped on that and said "Ah! The New Pornographers, I like them!" He had never heard of them (though oddly he was very familiar with Neko Case), and actually didn't believe me that she was involved with this (frankly made-up-sounding) band. It was a very odd experience in that he spent the rest of the conversation trying to convince me I was mistaken, until finally he gave up and I went home.


To his point, the degree of change from Neko Case's solo output, particularly "Furnace Room Lullaby," and the orchestrated pop sound of "Mass Romantic" is hard to grasp at first. She went from being an alt-country/rockabilly chanteuse to being a pop singer (and a backup singer for the most part, at that.)
   9960. zonk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:53 PM (#4310046)
FWIW - Derek Paxton (whom Wardell brought on board to fix Elemental/deliver Enchantress) also has a free Civ4 mod (Fall From Heaven) that I think is every bit as good as any other Fantasy 4Xer on the market. It's tight, interesting, has a great backstory, and it found a way to properly blend TBS/RPG almost perfectly.



Heh, which is where we began back at [9740] where I was trying to decide between getting Enchantress or Civ IV/Fall From Heaven.

Since you've played both, how would you compare/contrast them and which would you recommend if you had to choose?


I personally prefer Fall from Heaven (or more accurately, FfH2, the 2nd release)... but that's probably more a function of preferring the Civ franchise to more RPG-oriented games like HoMM or Age of Wonders.

Of course - the other advantage of FfH is that it's free (if you've got Civ4 -- but at this point, I would assume Civ4 can be had for a song... though - you need the BTS Civ4 expansion for it).

If you prefer the more RPG/quest-driven aspects - I'd say Enchantress... if you prefer the more empire-building aspect, I'd say Fall from Heaven.

Each has elements of both -- but Enchantress is much more character-driven... you have a 'character' who has to do the lion's share of your fighting, exploration, etc. You can recruit other heroes - but the experience-driven aspect means that your initial sovereign is likely to be your most powerful unit. One thing Enchantress did to nerf this a bit - you can get "negative experience" (permanent injuries that inhibit your abilities) when you die, as opposed to just "positive experience" when you win. Still - if you pick and choose your battles wisely (or make copious use of the annoying save/restart), your sovereign ends up being your key unit.

Fall from Heaven, on the other hand, tends to inevitably make the game more about "units" -- you can certainly farm favorites, add experience, etc... but it's more likely you'll be building new unit classes to form armies at different points (similar to Civ itself... where it eventually becomes smarter to just retire older units rather than do mass upgrades).

I think Enchantress' 4x components -- city building, resource gathering, etc -- are much harder than FfH... there are fewer resources, balancing growth is more difficult, etc. This is both a good and bad thing -- I generally prefer to "turtle" in strategy games, so I don't tend to like situations where I have to continually regenerate maps until I get to a point where I've got a strong enough starting position. Enchantress tends to like to/try to keep you moving -- new quests, tasks, etc -- while you can play in FfH by simply carving out your slice of land and focus on empire building... sending out scouts and such to continue to pop goodie hut equivalents.

The AI is both harder, but 'dumber' in Enchantress -- I guess I'm not saying the Civ4/FfH AI is "smarter", just that it's more logical... The Enchantress AI just seems to throw a hissy fit when it's losing - rather than begging for mercy or offering good deals to a superior opponent, it becomes impossible to deal with. The FfH AI is more amendable to recognizing when discretion is the better part of valor.

I guess the bottom line is whether you like controlling the "cities" -- with the corresponding impact that has on game play and your goals; or, do you prefer controlling the units/game pieces?

Both FfH and Enchantress offer both options -- but Enchantress is more weighted towards latter, while Fall from Heaven is more classically oriented towards the former.

BTW - a couple other differences...

1) Like virtually all Stardock games, one issue with the map generation is that I don't think Enchantress "generates" maps so much as it has a fairly large library of random maps. FfH, otoh, has actual map generation scripts -- so you never see the same world twice. There's just a lot more variance, options, and care-and-feeding available with FfH maps than Enchantress

2) OTOH, Enchantress has extensive unit customizations -- both at the initial setup, but then also in-game... you almost never want to build the stock units in Enchantress - rather, you're constantly customizing unit classes. Similar to the "shipbuilder" in Galactic Civilizations - when you find yourself at war or expecting to go to war, the first trip is to the unit builder to create the best mix of cost/tech/who you're fighting type units. FfH has only stock units - though, it has a ton, including plenty of Civ-specific units... you just can't really customize them beyond deciding on different promotions.

3) Enchantress is MUCH more stable than the original Elemental -- but it still has some annoying bugs and CTD issues... if you play long campaigns or make a lot of use Save/reload-based-on-results (which I do), these become really omnipresent in enchantress... not so in FfH.
   9961. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: November 26, 2012 at 06:59 PM (#4310049)
I did some WvW. Got tired of 3 hour queues for it as a result of tons of people on the server. Probably get back into it soon on Northern Shiverpeaks, as there are few lines. Right now I'm mostly doing Fractals of the Mists, which is pretty fun as you get to higher difficulties.

When they have guesting implemented (maybe they already have and I didn't notice), we should totally do a dungeon or something sometime.
   9962. bob gee Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:01 PM (#4310050)
intrade has pulled out of the u.s. market because of the CTFC lawsuit:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/26/intrade-shuts-out-american-bettors/

"“We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no longer allow US residents to participate in our real-money prediction markets,” the company said in a statement Monday. “Unfortunately this means that all US residents must begin the process of closing down their Intrade accounts. We strongly urge you to begin this process immediately.”

U.S. regulators on Monday sued Intrade, saying the company illegally let customers bet on options that must be traded on regulated exchanges."
   9963. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:04 PM (#4310052)
When they have guesting implemented (maybe they already have and I didn't notice), we should totally do a dungeon or something sometime.


You don't have to be on the same server to do dungeons. You just have to be in the appropriate area on your server for the dungeon.

The exception is Fractals of the Mists, but I can easily get into an overflow server in LA and have everyone else join me.
   9964. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4310054)
You're apparently a libertarian because you just can't find it within yourself to go to a chakra tuning at the local meditation palace and just admit that you're a friggin' hippie.

Live and let live was the only thing the hippies got right.
Oh, dude, free love right after the invention of The Pill gets no applause? Or are you crediting libertarianism by way of anarchism with the whole Free Love thing?

I actually know without googling the Presidential candidate who ran on a Free Love platform. Distinctions where I can find them.
   9965. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4310055)
[9960] Thanks, that's a lot of information. A lot of it echoes the sort of things I've been seeing in reviews of Enchantress (very difficult beginnings, AI goes off the rails when losing, buggy). I'm wondering if it makes sense to wait a while and see if it gets patched, or user mods address some of the issues.
   9966. Greg K Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:17 PM (#4310060)
I've just started playing Enchantress and it is oodles of fun. The other difference (I assume it's a difference, I haven't played the Civ 4 mod) is that there are actual little turn based combat battles. They're not exactly loaded with tactical complexity, but I find them a fun way to "get to know" your units.

One annoying thing is the lack of hot seat multiplayer. (great way to solve any AI issues!) I assume it's not that difficult to set up, but Civ seems to be the only one of these turn-based games that allows for it.
   9967. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4310061)
Re: #9958--
Left out Sam Tilden, 184. He gets screwed again!
   9968. Greg K Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:28 PM (#4310067)
Left out Sam Tilden, 184. He gets screwed again!

You also need use Electoral College+ which corrects for different amounts of states in different eras.
   9969. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:30 PM (#4310069)
[9966] Are you finding it buggy?
   9970. Steve Treder Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:46 PM (#4310072)
In case anyone's still interested in a political discussion ... have you seen this from conservative Bruce Bartlett?

... eventually I found the research I had previously done to be wanting. It was based too much on what academics thought and not enough on how Keynesian ideas penetrated the policymaking community.

I hit upon the idea of ignoring the academic journals and looking instead at what economists like John Maynard Keynes, Irving Fisher, and others said in newspaper interviews and articles for popular publications. Recently computerized databases made such investigation far easier than it previously had been.

After careful research along these lines, I came to the annoying conclusion that Keynes had been 100 percent right in the 1930s. Previously, I had thought the opposite. But facts were facts and there was no denying my conclusion. It didn’t affect the argument in my book, which was only about the rise and fall of ideas. The fact that Keynesian ideas were correct as well as popular simply made my thesis stronger.

... Annoyingly ... I found myself joined at the hip to Paul Krugman, whose analysis was identical to my own. I had previously viewed Krugman as an intellectual enemy and attacked him rather colorfully in an old column that he still remembers.

For the record, no one has been more correct in his analysis and prescriptions for the economy’s problems than Paul Krugman. The blind hatred for him on the right simply pushed me further away from my old allies and comrades.

The final line for me to cross in complete alienation from the right was my recognition that Obama is not a leftist. In fact, he’s barely a liberal—and only because the political spectrum has moved so far to the right that moderate Republicans from the past are now considered hardcore leftists by right-wing standards today. Viewed in historical context, I see Obama as actually being on the center-right.

At this point, I lost every last friend I had on the right. Some have been known to pass me in silence at the supermarket or even to cross the street when they see me coming. People who were as close to me as brothers and sisters have disowned me.

... So here we are, post-election 2012. All the stupidity and closed-mindedness that right-wingers have displayed over the last 10 years has come back to haunt them. It is now widely understood that the nation may be center-left after all, not center-right as conservatives thought. Overwhelming losses by Republicans to all the nation’s nonwhite voters have created a Democratic coalition that will govern the nation for the foreseeable future.

... The economy continues to conform to textbook Keynesianism. We still need more aggregate demand, and the Republican idea that tax cuts for the rich will save us becomes more ridiculous by the day. People will long remember Mitt Romney’s politically tone-deaf attack on half the nation’s population for being losers, leeches, and moochers because he accurately articulated the right-wing worldview.

At least a few conservatives now recognize that Republicans suffer for epistemic closure. They were genuinely shocked at Romney’s loss because they ignored every poll not produced by a right-wing pollster such as Rasmussen or approved by right-wing pundits such as the perpetually wrong Dick Morris. Living in the Fox News cocoon, most Republicans had no clue that they were losing or that their ideas were both stupid and politically unpopular.

I am disinclined to think that Republicans are yet ready for a serious questioning of their philosophy or strategy. They comfort themselves with the fact that they held the House (due to gerrymandering) and think that just improving their get-out-the-vote system and throwing a few bones to the Latino community will fix their problem. There appears to be no recognition that their defects are far, far deeper and will require serious introspection and rethinking of how Republicans can win going forward. The alternative is permanent loss of the White House and probably the Senate as well, which means they can only temporarily block Democratic initiatives and never advance their own.
   9971. Langer Monk Posted: November 26, 2012 at 07:59 PM (#4310076)
EDIT:
Also, people. Stop recommending video games! I've already downloaded three this week, which is roughly three over my allowed limit.


Bastion! $3.74 on Steam. Indie game.

/I'll stop now.
   9972. spike Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:07 PM (#4310082)
conservative Bruce Bartlett?

To paraphrase an old joke,

Q: What do you call a conservative who worked for Ronald Reagan, GHW Bush, Ron Paul, Jack Kemp, Gary Bauer, and The Heritage Foundation who has some doubts about supply side economics?

A: A RINO
   9973. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4310084)
In case anyone's still interested in a political discussion ... have you seen this from conservative Bruce Bartlett?

Another sad piece of attention-getting. It would have been nice if Bartlett could have taken time out from his "I, I, I, me, me, me, please buy my books" routine to explain just how the Republicans were supposed to outflank the Dems with Keynesian stimulus spending while simultaneously being seen as the party of responsible budgeting and spending.

Bartlett complains about Bush's prescription drug plan but then calls for far more government spending than Obama; he says the GOP needs to do better with blacks but supports amnesty and more low-skilled immigration. A total mess of an article, let alone a political platform.
   9974. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4310087)
I hit upon the idea of ignoring the academic journals and looking instead at what economists like John Maynard Keynes, Irving Fisher, and others said in newspaper interviews and articles for popular publications. Recently computerized databases made such investigation far easier than it previously had been.

After careful research along these lines, I came to the annoying conclusion that Keynes had been 100 percent right in the 1930s. Previously, I had thought the opposite. But facts were facts and there was no denying my conclusion. It didn’t affect the argument in my book, which was only about the rise and fall of ideas. The fact that Keynesian ideas were correct as well as popular simply made my thesis stronger.


Of course Keynes was right, the longstanding attacks on him from rightwingers now appear as a precursor to their later attacks on any researcher in any field who says anything they disagree with.

   9975. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4310088)
Living in the Fox News cocoon, most Republicans had no clue that they were losing or that their ideas were both stupid and politically unpopular.


Therein lies the final truth of the 2000's, politically, in America.
   9976. SteveF Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4310089)
Bastion! $3.74 on Steam. Indie game.


Quite a fun game with an interesting way of implementing difficulty levels. You'll get a good 15-20 hours out of it.
   9977. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4310092)
Living in the Fox News cocoon, most Republicans had no clue that they were losing or that their ideas were both stupid and politically unpopular.

Yes, the GOP's ideas are so "stupid and politically unpopular" that they retook the House from the Dems just two years after a landslide Obama win, and then held the House in 2012 despite Obama's reelection. The GOP's flawed 2012 presidential candidate also came within a ~1.6-point swing from winning back the White House from the most popular Democrat since JFK.

Yup, the GOP is deader than a doornail.
   9978. Lassus Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4310093)
At this point, I lost every last friend I had on the right. Some have been known to pass me in silence at the supermarket or even to cross the street when they see me coming.

-chuckle -

A LITTTTTTTLE overwrought. I can almost see him trying to cool himself off with a fan while narrating this, threatening (out loud) to faint.

   9979. Lassus Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4310094)
Yup, the GOP is deader than a doornail.

Do you really not see the real estate that exists between "stupid and unpopular" and "deader than a doornail"?
   9980. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4310095)
Do you really not see the real estate that exists between "stupid and unpopular" and "deader than a doornail"?

Do you really have to be such a pedant?

Also, still waiting for that long list of Republicans who want to ban contraceptives.
   9981. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:29 PM (#4310097)
To paraphrase an old joke,

Q: What do you call a conservative who...

A: A RINO



Long ago when I was still a Republican I began noticing that the Republicans I liked were usually called RINOs by the louder segments of the party faithful... Deciding that staying in such a party made no sense I left, absolutely nothing that has transpired in the party since then has given me any indication that leaving was the wrong thing to do.

I've voted for scattered Repubs since then (even considering that Bloomberg doesn't really count), I've even gone from thinking that Christie was absolutely loathsome, to being not too bad overall...

But the overall problem remains, the current day GOP basically stands for upper middle class and higher whites, whiel pandering to the moron no nothing* elements of the general populace.

no one stands for the working middle class (of any race).

the Dems stand for everyone else.

The GOP is wedded to a dysfunctional economic philosophy in away that is weirdly similar (though opposed) to the way Commies were wedded to dysfunctional ideas- The Soviets absolutely HAD to break up and privatize the collectivized farms- forget what outsiders said, every generation their own people looked at the situation and said they had to do it- and they never did, the idea was raised very generation and was DOA every generation- collective ownership of the means of production- the land itself was an idea that could not ever be "compromised" or questioned, it could never be considered.
The GOP's essential answer to EVERY economic problem/situation is the same, always, every time, every state, every industry, every situation- oh the Dems tend to recycle through the same themes, but mostly they're muddlers... The GOP is seemingly a bunch who have access to divine revealed knowledge, and accordingly their can be no compromise- "this is the Policy, there can be no deviations"



*by that I mean the cultural/ideological heirs of the 19th century no-nothings



   9982. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:33 PM (#4310098)
Do you really have to be such a pedant?


When dealing with YOU, yes.

come clean, does this apply to you:

Living in the Fox News cocoon, most Republicans had no clue that they were losing


or were you punking us during the campaign?



   9983. Lassus Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:34 PM (#4310099)
Do you really have to be such a pedant?

To quote the MIA David Nieporent: words mean something.
   9984. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4310100)
To quote the MIA David Nieporent: words mean something.

Yes, they do, and the words of the liberals here over the past three weeks have suggested the GOP is all but dead unless it entirely rebrands itself by moving substantially to the left.

I haven't seen you objecting to any of your fellow liberals' assessments of the situation, so my eight words in #9977 shouldn't have been a big deal.
   9985. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4310101)
... So here we are, post-election 2012. All the stupidity and closed-mindedness that right-wingers have displayed over the last 10 years has come back to haunt them.
It's interesting--can they come back and even do the grunt polling necessary to figure out where they need to change (from a crude, how-to-win perspective)? If you had to pick one candidate for the Repub nomination who would have been the most likely to be able to poll clearheadedly and organize a ground game, wouldn't it have been Romney, and would anyone else have been close? I still can't quite believe the many stories that Romney genuinely thought he was ahead in late October and early November, but they seem to be true.

I was them I'd be concerned about a party that's going to go right ahead and continue to let Reince Priebus run the party. As goofy as he was, Micheal Steele actually won some elections. Priebus got killed. Doesn't winning matter at that level?

   9986. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4310102)
[the GOP] then held the House in 2012 despite Obama's reelection

Victims of the tsunami didn't cling to their pieces of driftwood as tightly as you're hanging onto that incorrect A-B premise.
   9987. formerly dp Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:48 PM (#4310103)
the words of the liberals here over the past three weeks have suggested the GOP is all but dead unless it entirely rebrands itself by moving substantially to the left.
I like how Joe equates 'Republicans should stop campaigning on thinly-veiled racism' with 'moving substantially to the left'. It gives me hope for 2016.
   9988. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:54 PM (#4310106)
Victims of the 2007 tsunami didn't cling to their pieces of driftwood as tightly as you're hanging onto that incorrect A-B premise.

Nonsense. The GOP controls 30 out of 50 governorships, 45 Senate seats, and a majority in the House. You liberals deluded yourselves with the "GOP is dead" nonsense in 2009–10, and we all saw how that worked out. Barely three years after flushing an opportunity to pass card check, climate change, and immigration down the sewer thanks to liberal overconfidence about its new "permanent majority," it's kind of funny watching history repeat itself when the Dems are in worse shape now than they were after the 2008 election.
   9989. formerly dp Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:56 PM (#4310108)
Nonsense. The GOP controls 30 out of 50 governorships, 45 Senate seats, and a majority in the House. You liberals deluded yourselves with the "GOP is dead" nonsense in 2008, and we all saw how that worked out. Barely three years after flushing an opportunity to pass card check, climate change, and immigration down the sewer thanks to liberal overconfidence about its new "permanent majority," it's kind of funny watching history repeat itself when the Dems are in even worse shape than they were after the 2008 election.
Bubble living at its finest. Awesome.
   9990. Jack Carter, calling Beleaguered Castle Posted: November 26, 2012 at 08:58 PM (#4310109)
I like how Joe equates 'Republicans should stop campaigning on thinly-veiled racism' with 'moving substantially to the left'. It gives me hope for 2016.
Any country that would give 47% of the vote to someone like Romney is exactly like the girl you knew freshman year who'd never been away from home before and would #### absolutely anyone. The GOP has to do very little to win the next national election. A mild recession coupled with a slightly softer immigration policy, and a weakish Dem nominee like Al Gore in 2000, or John Kerry in 2004, or Mike Dukakis in 1988, or Jimmy Carter in 1980, or Walter Mondale in 1984, and it's four years of President Rightie tapping his fountain pen to Hail to the Chief while signing legislation mandating orphan meat for school lunches.

   9991. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4310112)
I like how Joe equates 'Republicans should stop campaigning on thinly-veiled racism' with 'moving substantially to the left'. It gives me hope for 2016.

I like how you guys are 100 percent sure that minority voting patterns are entirely the result of racism rather than economics and personal finances. In your world, the fact that well-off Asians* — who comprise just 3 percent of the electorate — voted for Obama means that poor blacks and Latinos also must have voted for Obama for entirely non-economic reasons. (But remember, folks, it's the right-wingers who ignore reality.)


(* Just out of curiosity, what exactly has the GOP done to be seen as anti-Asian such that Asians allegedly recoil from the GOP due to anti-Asian racism? And why would Asians recoil from the GOP but give Joe "I can't go to 7-Eleven or Dunkin' Donuts without dealing with an Indian" Biden a free pass?)
   9992. Lassus Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4310113)
Also, still waiting for that long list of Republicans who want to ban contraceptives.

Hmmm... More words that mean nothing. "Others" = "long list", I see. Anyhow, Steve King seemed pretty annoyed that CT was able to weasel out of outlawing contraception, but that's not really the one I'd focus on. Paul Ryan's bill was firmly, scientifically worded to take on IUDs. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour supported Initiative 26, which the Personhood USA spokesman claimed would outlaw IUDs, hormonal birth control pills, and the morning after pill for rape victims.

The bills that take on IUDs and hormonal birth control, and their supporters are not figments of my imagination. I'm reasonably sure you will carp about definitions, and about the push to ban COVERAGE for birth control vs. birth control itself. I understand the difference. But the Personhood stance and bills - supported by other conservatives than the ones above - would be big steps for not allowing these types of birth control.
   9993. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:06 PM (#4310114)
Re: Joe K, #9988--
I agree with you that the "GOP is dead" talk is overblown wishful thinking from the left. It's not as if one needs to be a historian to see this, either. The GOP supposedly kicked off their "permanent Republican majority" before allegedly being reduced to a "regional Southern party": two equally unstoppable seismic shifts that each occurred in the last 10 years.

I'm scoffing at your "winning the House despite Obama's win" mantra. As was exhaustively demonstrated, there's zero evidence of a connection between a President's win-- or the size thereof-- and the concurrent result in the House of Representatives. It's the same sort of lazy-assed "gut feel" narrative that you reject when it comes to something like proclaiming "the GOP is dead," but can't make yourself let go of when it comes to proving why Obama didn't demonstratively win in the way that a winner wins.
   9994. Steve Treder Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:09 PM (#4310117)
The GOP has to do very little to win the next national election. A mild recession coupled with a slightly softer immigration policy, and a weakish Dem nominee like Al Gore in 2000, or John Kerry in 2004, or Mike Dukakis in 1988, or Jimmy Carter in 1980, or Walter Mondale in 1984, and it's President Rightie who's hearing Hail to the Chief while signing legislation mandating orphan meat for school lunches.

Of course that's possible, but it's precisely the kind of shallow and short-sighted thinking that's gotten the GOP into the fix it's in. Counting on the other team to screw up is a good way to lose elections. Outside of the South Romney lost 55-45. Among Latinos, African-Americans, and Asian-Americans he got clobbered far worse than that. Those are huge structural deficits that won't just go away unless the Republicans come up with some genuinely new ideas and approaches.

I agree with Bartlett. Trying the same thing over yet again with just minor tweaks and expecting a different result would be the worst choice for the Republicans to make.
   9995. spike Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4310120)
Outside of the South Romney lost 55-45.

And inside the South, the demographics are working against the GOP as currently constructed.
   9996. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4310124)
Hmmm... More words that mean nothing. "Others" = "long list", I see. Anyhow, Steve King seemed pretty annoyed that CT was able to weasel out of outlawing contraception, but that's not really the one I'd focus on. Paul Ryan's bill was firmly, scientifically worded to take on IUDs. Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour supported Initiative 26, which the Personhood USA spokesman claimed would outlaw IUDs, hormonal birth control pills, and the morning after pill for rape victims.

A person who read your comments on the last couple pages would believe that there were large numbers of Republicans agitating to ban birth control. However, you haven't been able to name a single active GOP officeholder who has even remotely hinted at such a thing, let alone openly advocated it. (Despite the "war on women" being a major Dem theme this year, I didn't see anyone attacking Paul Ryan for attempting to ban birth control, and Santorum and Barbour are both out of office.)

***
I'm scoffing at your "winning the House despite Obama's win" mantra. As was exhaustively demonstrated, there's zero evidence of a connection between a President's win-- or the size thereof-- and the concurrent result in the House of Representatives. It's the same sort of lazy-assed "gut feel" narrative that you reject when it comes to something like proclaiming "the GOP is dead," but can't make yourself let go of when it comes to proving why Obama didn't demonstratively win in the way that a winner wins.

So the Dems' additional gains in the House in 2008 were totally unrelated to the 2008 presidential campaign and the general political mood of the nation that year? (And the "exhaustively demonstrated," "zero evidence" thing remains false. If the GOP's platform is so "stupid and politically unpopular," no amount of gerrymandering would have been able to protect a 2-year majority.)
   9997. Tilden Katz Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4310125)
what exactly has the GOP done to be seen as anti-Asian such that Asians allegedly recoil from the GOP due to anti-Asian racism? And why would Asians recoil from the GOP but give Joe "I can't go to 7-Eleven without dealing with an Indian" Biden a free pass?


You mean the party that has regularly attacked the first non-white President as being illegitimate and un-American? Even a "serious" Republican like Romney waded into the birther pool with his birth certificate comment and his association with America's most famous racist Donald Trump. Stuff like that resonates with all non-white voters, not just black voters.

And of course, being the most-educated racial demographic in America, Asian-Americans are likely put off by the party's pandering to its anti-intellectual base. I would also guess, but do not have the numbers in front of me, that Asian-Americans are less religious than any other racial group and thus would be less likely to be swayed by the GOP's anti-gay and anti-abortion crusades.
   9998. spike Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:24 PM (#4310126)
what exactly has the GOP done to be seen as anti-Asian

They have to convince them that US nativism really only applies to black and brown people, I guess.
   9999. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4310127)
And of course, being the most-educated racial demographic in America, Asian-Americans are likely put off by the party's pandering to its anti-intellectual base. I would also guess, but do not have the numbers in front of me, that Asian-Americans are less religious than any other racial group and thus would be less likely to be swayed by the GOP's anti-gay and anti-abortion crusades.

Careful: You're poking big holes in the Asians-vote-for-Dems-because-of-GOP-racism theory that's so popular among lefties right now.
   10000. Joe Kehoskie Posted: November 26, 2012 at 09:28 PM (#4310128)
By the way, we're at 10,000 comments. Is this a BBTF record?

That infamous Luke Scott thread took two months to get to 65 pages. This one's at 100 pages after 26 days.
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