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Thursday, September 19, 2013

[OT]The NBA Pre-Seaon Thread

Best shape of his life David Lee

Jordan Hill 1000 Jumpers a day

This one seems slightly more bizarre but in the same vain

Jeremy Lin says he’s trying to go for a different posture ... hmmmm

Meanwhile, some injury related news

1.Rondo and Avery Bradley will both miss preseason for the Celtics
2.Kobe likely to miss the pre season
3.Chris Singleton out 6-8 weeks with injury, Okafor out indefinitely with herniate disk ... you thought that the Wizards would eventually catch a break with injuries, guess not.
4.Andrew Bynum hasn’t resumed basketball activity, great sign there.

” cols=“100” rows=“20”>

Well, we’re a week away from training camp kick off for teams playing pre season off seas. and we’re already entering the equivalent of baseball’s preseason “best shape of his life” stuff… and of course, injuries that could potentially kill team’s hopes.

Some of your typical best shape of his life stuff….
Best shape of his life David Lee

Jordan Hill 1000 Jumpers a day

This one seems slightly more bizarre but in the same vain

Jeremy Lin says he’s trying to go for a different posture ... hmmmm

Meanwhile, some injury related news

1.Rondo and Avery Bradley will both miss preseason for the Celtics
2.Kobe likely to miss the pre season
3.Chris Singleton out 6-8 weeks with injury, Okafor out indefinitely with herniate disk ... you thought that the Wizards would eventually catch a break with injuries, guess not.
4.Andrew Bynum hasn’t resumed basketball activity, great sign there.

RollingWave Posted: September 19, 2013 at 10:05 PM | 410 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba

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   301. nick swisher hygiene Posted: October 09, 2013 at 06:29 PM (#4567119)
OK, anybody who hasn't read Goldsberry's Grantland piece, here's a list:

Top 10 Outside Shooters Per 100 Shot Attempts
[values are points added above average]

1. Jose Calderon, +25
2. Kyle Korver, +23
3. Steve Nash, +21
4. Stephen Curry, +17
5. Dirk Nowitzki, +16
6. ______________ +16
7. Jarrett Jack, +16
8. Shane Battier, +15
9. Danny Green, +15
10. Steve Novak, +14

I've omitted #6 because it surprised the hell out of me.
Anybody wanna fill in the blank?
   302. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 09, 2013 at 06:48 PM (#4567138)
FWIW, I was also completely shocked by #6.
   303. smileyy Posted: October 09, 2013 at 06:53 PM (#4567141)
Somehow I missed that the first time through the article.
   304. Publius Publicola Posted: October 09, 2013 at 07:05 PM (#4567146)
Was it Kidd?
   305. nick swisher hygiene Posted: October 09, 2013 at 07:30 PM (#4567161)
304--more shocking!!!
   306. JJ1986 Posted: October 09, 2013 at 07:41 PM (#4567166)
I could have guessed 200 players and wouldn't have gotten it.
   307. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 09, 2013 at 07:53 PM (#4567173)
Brandon Bass? This is hard to guess in the light of [306]. :)
   308. Rob_Wood Posted: October 09, 2013 at 08:23 PM (#4567206)
As a Warrior fan, I cannot fathom how Jarrett Jack is only mere pct point behind Steph Curry. Curry is one of the best pure shooters in the NBA whereas Jack is run-of-the mill (nothing fancy).

I guess I don't understand the metric, or the metric "rewards" players who don't shoot a lot. Another interpretation is that Jack only shoots when he is wide open/unguarded while Curry is often the number one option and is always guarded in their set offense. Watching the two guys shoot in an empty gym, it would be ludicrous to say that Jack is nearly as good a shooter as Curry.
   309. Publius Publicola Posted: October 09, 2013 at 08:55 PM (#4567282)
The Knicks/Celtics is on NBA TV. A few observations:

Shumpert can really shoot. He's going to be a real asset for the Knicks.

Prigioni has the mobility of a fossil but still finds ways to contribute.

Just caught a glimpse of Chandler but he looked fairly sharp from what I could see.

Gerald Wallace did a good job on Melo, forcing him to take bad shots.

Jeff Green might make the leap to AS this year.

The point guard situation is going to be a real problem for the Celtics until Rondo comes back. Bradley isn't a point guard and he's the only one I saw besides Courtney Lee in green who has an NBA game.

Kelly Olynyk is an interesting player. His shooting/passing/ballhandling skills are excellent for a center. But he's made a lot of mistakes and he's very raw. He has a very rudimentary post game that's he's going to have to work on if he wants to be good. But he has the talent to do it.

But the big surprise that I saw was this Brazilian center the Celtics have, Vitor Faverani. I've never even heard of him but this guy can play! He runs the floor extremely well, has great hands and finishes very strong. Don't know if he has a jumper but from I've seen so far, I'm very impressed. He's going to make the team for sure.
   310. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 10, 2013 at 09:12 AM (#4567799)
who was the last big man to team with KG and not improve quickly?


It is a cliche, but KG really does seem like a player that makes others around him better and in general contributes a lot more than his box score. But I am biased regarding KG.
   311. jmurph Posted: October 10, 2013 at 09:40 AM (#4567821)
Speaking of Jeff Green, I made the fanboy prediction prior to last season that he would be worth his salary that first year. Does anyone have a standard dollar-to-win metric handy? AROM posted his back of the envelope calculation in the thread at one point but I can't find it.

Green had 4.7 WS last year and made $8.5 million, so I'm thinking it might have worked out!
   312. aberg Posted: October 10, 2013 at 12:33 PM (#4568011)
Speaking of Jeff Green, I made the fanboy prediction prior to last season that he would be worth his salary that first year. Does anyone have a standard dollar-to-win metric handy? AROM posted his back of the envelope calculation in the thread at one point but I can't find it.

Green had 4.7 WS last year and made $8.5 million, so I'm thinking it might have worked out!


I think something around $2m/mW works out as rough shorthand, but the salary cap, luxury tax, and max contract structures make that a very unreliable metric compared to the freer market of MLB.
   313. Publius Publicola Posted: October 10, 2013 at 12:38 PM (#4568015)
But I am biased regarding KG.


Maybe you are but what you said about Garnett I agree with. The stuff he does the best goes unnoticed or under appreciated.
   314. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 10, 2013 at 12:39 PM (#4568017)
Have you guys been watching the previews Simmons and Rose are doing?
   315. Publius Publicola Posted: October 10, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4568018)
   316. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 10, 2013 at 12:53 PM (#4568030)
Have you guys been watching the previews Simmons and Rose are doing?


Yes; while hardly stat-centered, they have raised my awareness of what's happening in the league in general, and gotten me thinking about buying an NBA pass to follow some of the more interesting teams out there this year.
   317. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 10, 2013 at 01:11 PM (#4568055)
I think the Simmons and Rose previews are awful and that it's embarassing that a company with guys like Lowe, Goldsberry, Pelton, Haberstroh, etc. (the last two if you are including ESPN.com guys) is giving top season preview billing to these two. I get that they are the big names, but why not use them to promote the work from the other guys who are all, IMO, MUCH better analysts. In addition, I am one of the guys who didn't mind the "fratty" nature of TBoB that many here did, but I do mind it with these previews. It's less serious analysis and more entertainment. The previews over at ESPN.com are much better as is/was Lowe's column on tiers.
   318. aberg Posted: October 10, 2013 at 01:31 PM (#4568071)
is giving top season preview billing to these two


What do you mean by "top billing?" They're on Grantland, and like anything else on the internet, you can click or not click on them. I agree that the stuff Pelton and Haberstoh are doing is more informative and the Simmons/Rose stuff is mostly entertainment, but that's mostly the structure of the free/pay model at ESPN anyway. The serious analysis is behind the pay wall, so this is a free way for people to get some basketball-based entertainment.
   319. RollingWave Posted: October 10, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4568077)
[317] I think Jalen is really good, Simmons is fun but yeah that ranking have been hilarious when they rank the Hawks that low.
   320. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 10, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4568088)
I saw the highlights of that game with Faverani. Didn't hear his name clearly and somehow was sure he was Iranian. Well, first I thought "Who the heck is that? Is that Fab Melo? No, this guy is too pale."
   321. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 10, 2013 at 01:52 PM (#4568099)

[317] I think Jalen is really good, Simmons is fun but yeah that ranking have been hilarious when they rank the Hawks that low.


They both think Al Horford will be traded, sooner rather than later.
   322. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 10, 2013 at 01:54 PM (#4568101)
FWIW, Faverani doesn't do it for me, though I've seen very little of him. Pelton projects him at below replacement and he seems like a guy who looks better than he is. Shoots threes, doesn't hit them. Has some athleticism, but gets scored on. Not a creator.
Prefer him to Pero Antic, I guess.
   323. kpelton Posted: October 10, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4568112)
Prefer him to Pero Antic, I guess.

Is there anyone in the league you don't?

Faverani did look terrific last night. We'll see.
   324. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 10, 2013 at 02:14 PM (#4568122)
Is there anyone in the league you don't?

Heh, you remember that rant?

Good question. Um, on the court? Not that come to mind. There are players who are more dangerous in that they could get more playing time to gum up the works and players who are likely worse but not locks to make a team (to say nothing of those I'm forgetting, assuredly many people).

Still, ######' Pero Antic.

   325. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 10, 2013 at 02:22 PM (#4568126)
Perhaps I'm overreacting, but after hearing (what felt like) half the Toronto preview spent on hockey/nightlife and then being told that Demar Derozan is a good shooter...

What do you mean by "top billing?" They're on Grantland, and like anything else on the internet, you can click or not click on them.

ISTM the branding of the previews has been This Is Grantland's Comprehensive NBA Preview (as evidenced by using Goldsberry and Lowe as contributors for portions within the videos). While I can click on it or not I would have much rather they just asked/let Lowe & some others preview the entire league and provide actual analysis.
   326. Publius Publicola Posted: October 10, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4568154)
The one thing I didnt like so much about Faverani is his body. His arms and shoulders have no definition at all. That sets off alarm bells for me, suggests he isn't putting in the conditioning time.
   327. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 10, 2013 at 03:29 PM (#4568203)
Not a new complaint, but maybe he'll be inspired to tighten up now...

Lowe on a fallen mascot.
   328. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: October 10, 2013 at 03:56 PM (#4568240)
They both think Al Horford will be traded, sooner rather than later.

That's an odd thought for any two people to share.

Al Horford is a very good player, in his prime, on a great contract and can play effectively alongside basically any kind of player. The only way Ferry's trading him is as part of a package where the Hawks get a franchise player in return.
   329. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 10, 2013 at 04:11 PM (#4568262)
While I can click on it or not I would have much rather they just asked/let Lowe & some others preview the entire league and provide actual analysis.


They did, right here.


Al Horford is a very good player, in his prime, on a great contract and can play effectively alongside basically any kind of player. The only way Ferry's trading him is as part of a package where the Hawks get a franchise player in return.


The implication was that the Hawks would be wise to tank this season to get some good picks. The specific trade Simmons suggested:

Hawks get:
Carlos Boozer
Nikola Mirotic
Charlotte's #1 pick
Bulls #1 pick

Bulls get:
Al Horford

That's a typical Simmons crazy trade scenario, of course, but it's something that's entertaining to ponder. Rose said the Bulls should offer anything other than Rose, Butler and Noah for Horford.
   330. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: October 10, 2013 at 04:24 PM (#4568279)
The implication was that the Hawks would be wise to tank this season to get some good picks.

The Hawks aren't going to tank. Atlanta, as a professional basketball market, is as scarred by the nine-year rebuilding process that started in 1999 as by the team's failure to win two consecutive playoff series since moving here.

Ferry seems to have more interest in acquiring undervalued players and/or trade assets than putting all his eggs in either the free agency or draft lottery baskets. As to whether that gives him more control, or just a greater illusion of control over the pursuit of a championship-caliber roster...who knows.

I should also add, as a first-time season ticket holder, I really hope the Hawks don't tank this season.
   331. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 10, 2013 at 04:36 PM (#4568287)
Simmons loves tanking. I think at some point in the offseason he's advised the Sixers, the Celtics, the Magic, the Hawks, the Bucks, the Pistons, the Bobcats, the Wizards, the Suns, the Kings, the Jazz, the Blazers, the Nuggets, the Pelicans, and the Mavericks that they should be tanking.

Basically any team that isn't a finals contender should be tanking, except the Timberwolves because tanking would make Kevin Love want to leave. In his dream scenario there would be 14 teams winning 65 games, 14 teams losing 65 games, and then the Rockets and Timberwolves.
   332. aberg Posted: October 10, 2013 at 04:47 PM (#4568298)
Simmons loves tanking. I think at some point in the offseason he's advised the Sixers, the Celtics, the Magic, the Hawks, the Bucks, the Pistons, the Bobcats, the Wizards, the Suns, the Kings, the Jazz, the Blazers, the Nuggets, the Pelicans, and the Mavericks that they should be tanking.


Since that would mean they would all draft Wiggins, it's a pretty smart move. The league is going to be so deep with 15 Wigginses coming in next year.
   333. The District Attorney Posted: October 10, 2013 at 05:10 PM (#4568330)
I think Simmons/Rose would be fine if they just talked to each other about the teams. I don't know why they feel they have to hit five pre-specified segments in ten minutes.

I wonder if the Raptor has seen his last appearance as a Raptor. There's been talk about changing the team nickname. They should still keep the same guy in the suit, of course.
   334. Monty Posted: October 10, 2013 at 05:19 PM (#4568342)
I'm surprised you guys aren't talking about this Deadspin article about Magic Johnson leaving ESPN because of Bill Simmons.
   335. aberg Posted: October 10, 2013 at 05:22 PM (#4568344)
I'm surprised you guys aren't talking about this Deadspin article about Magic Johnson leaving ESPN because of Bill Simmons.


Meh, lots of anonymously sourced and vague allegations. Maybe Magic didn't like the way the show was going, but I think we all agreed that it needed a real host to wrangle the personalities and Wilbon didn't do that. If Simmons pointed that out to the producers and lobbied for it, I can't blame him.
   336. The District Attorney Posted: October 10, 2013 at 05:32 PM (#4568355)
Well, good for Simmons, I don't love the guy but he's got a lot more interesting take to contribute than Magic Johnson does.
   337. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 10, 2013 at 05:46 PM (#4568365)
Take it for what you will, primer RT:

Bill Simmons ?@BillSimmons 1h
My first experience today with someone writing a "sources" report about me that's not true. Part amusing, part horrifying.
   338. smileyy Posted: October 10, 2013 at 06:15 PM (#4568386)
[331] The flaw in his assumption is (1) a team gains no benefit by not being a title contender and (2) a team suffers no consequences for losing a lot.
   339. rr Posted: October 10, 2013 at 06:21 PM (#4568390)
Simmons loves tanking. I think at some point in the offseason he's advised the Sixers, the Celtics, the Magic, the Hawks, the Bucks, the Pistons, the Bobcats, the Wizards, the Suns, the Kings, the Jazz, the Blazers, the Nuggets, the Pelicans, and the Mavericks that they should be tanking.

--

You missed the Lakers, although they were implied below. He provided the Lakers with a detailed, step-by-step tanking plan.
   340. Tripon Posted: October 10, 2013 at 06:59 PM (#4568411)
So, did Bill Simmons kick off Magic Johnson off of ESPN?
   341. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 10, 2013 at 07:17 PM (#4568417)
Simmons loves tanking. I think at some point in the offseason he's advised the Sixers, the Celtics, the Magic, the Hawks, the Bucks, the Pistons, the Bobcats, the Wizards, the Suns, the Kings, the Jazz, the Blazers, the Nuggets, the Pelicans, and the Mavericks that they should be tanking.


His view is that the draft class is so deep that the top 10-12 picks are as good or better than the #1 pick in a weak year.
   342. smileyy Posted: October 10, 2013 at 07:30 PM (#4568423)

His view is that the draft class is so deep that the top 10-12 picks are as good or better than the #1 pick in a weak year.


This is a strong draft, but that's ludicrous.
   343. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 10, 2013 at 07:34 PM (#4568427)
You missed the Lakers, although they were implied below. He provided the Lakers with a detailed, step-by-step tanking plan.

Good call. It still hasn't sunk in that they suck.

The two teams he has been ambivalent about are the T-Wolves and the T-Blazers. In both cases he seems to think it would be unfair to their star player, who unlike every other player in the league he can't imagine being traded. (Aldridge, Love)

Every other non-title contender should just trade all their players, Astros-style. This would also make him happy because the top 10 teams would now have deep rosters, like they did in the 70s and 80s.
   344. Rob_Wood Posted: October 10, 2013 at 08:13 PM (#4568450)
oh you should see the commentary regarding doris burke joining countdown (lol)
   345. aberg Posted: October 10, 2013 at 09:08 PM (#4568524)
Obviously, if too many teams tank, the value of tanking decreases. We've reached a point where there are as many contenders who build by big spending (mia,bkn) or steady building (indy, sa, mem) that it's clear tanking for a draft pick isn't required. Houston probably isn't a blueprint but they never bottomed out either.
   346. aberg Posted: October 10, 2013 at 09:10 PM (#4568538)
I really, really like Doris Burke, fwiw.
   347. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 10, 2013 at 09:48 PM (#4568636)
Doris is good - I want more of her on my TV.
   348. Publius Publicola Posted: October 10, 2013 at 10:14 PM (#4568706)
Can someone explain to me why everyone seems to be drooling all over the next draft? I get that people like wiggins but the kid is 18 yrs old. And who else is coming out to make it do deep?

Sounds a little like irrational exuberance to me.
   349. Rob_Wood Posted: October 10, 2013 at 10:47 PM (#4568814)
yes, i too like doris (hope she can be more than a traffic-cop host)
   350. JJ1986 Posted: October 10, 2013 at 10:52 PM (#4568824)
Jabari Parker and Julius Randle are also premiere prospects. I don't think depth to the 10th or 15th prospect is measurable at this point, though.
   351. rr Posted: October 10, 2013 at 11:01 PM (#4568855)
steady building (indy, sa, mem)


I agree with the overall point, but the Spurs still revolve to a large extent around Duncan, as they have for a long time.

Houston sort of combined what Boston did (leveraging assets for stars) with part of what the 96 Lakers did to get Shaq (having a team with enough talent in place that the guy wanted to join even after clearing off some cap space) to get Harden and Howard. The Clippers used all three "methods"--won the lottery to get Griffin, leveraged assets to get Paul, and then made the team more attractive by bringing in Rivers and some guys to help so that they could keep Paul.

So, I think one way to look at it if your team is kind of in the middle, is to ask if they are getting assets that might

a) Make the team more attractive to guys like Love or Aldridge if they hit FA.
and/or
b) Make them able to set up a trade if someone wants to or "has to" trade James Harden, Chris Paul, or Dwight Howard.

In that context, depending on how the team does it, there might be a more long-term meaningful
difference between a 34-48 team and a 44-38 team than many think.


As far as this draft, I am not a draftnik, but in addition to Wiggins, Smart, Exum, Randle, Parker, and a couple of other guys are seen as possibly being foundational players. And many seem to believe that Wiggins has a chance to be pretty close to James/Jordan.

   352. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 10, 2013 at 11:06 PM (#4568873)
Had no idea who the ex-coach was doing the Knicks/Celtics game last night but was thinking "man, this guy is pretty good, a bit afraid to critique in the way most ex-coaches and players are, but still pretty good". Turns out it was our old friend PJ Carlisemo.

Didn't really take much from the game except that Hardaway JR still has that scorer's mentality he showed at UM (fearless shooter, in the good and bad ways) and that the Celtics are bad. They made a run to make the final respectable but their starters against NY's was a bad mismatch, and I didn't even think NY looked that great either. Compared to the Bulls/Pacers preseason game it was like watching a couple semi-pro teams.

And who else is coming out to make it do deep?


Michigan has a couple interesting guys in Glen Robinson and Mitch Mcgary. Either could go as high as probably 5 and as low as probably 25. GRIII is a pure athlete in the mold of Andre Iguadala, not much of a shooter but explosive and was playing a bit out of position last year as a PF in Beilein's 4 out offense. McGary is a Kevin Love type (down to the skin color) with a worse shot and better playmaking ability. Pure rebounder that also has surpassingly nimble feet and hands and is also a solid playmaker from the face up 15 feet out.
   353. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 10, 2013 at 11:14 PM (#4568893)
Can someone explain to me why everyone seems to be drooling all over the next draft? I get that people like wiggins but the kid is 18 yrs old. And who else is coming out to make it do deep?

Wiggins is seen as a transformational wing who would go #1 in almost any non LeBron type draft. And then Randle and Exum are both guys who are thought of as guys who in most years would be solid #1 picks. And then Gordon has been comped to Blake Griffin (a former #1). And then Marcus Smart was #1 on last year's draft board at certain points. And then Jabari Parker was on the cover of SI like 3 years ago as the best HS player in the country. And then Andrew Harrison is next in the line of big, athletic, Cal guards. I mean...I'm not sure how anyone could look at this draft class and NOT get really, really excited.

EDIT: Basically, there's 7 or 8 guys who, depending on what year they came out, would have been discussed as potential #1 overall picks. That's insane. Obviously not all of these guys are going to work out, but this class is clearly stacked.
   354. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: October 10, 2013 at 11:22 PM (#4568912)
McGary is a Kevin Love type (down to the skin color) with a worse shot and better playmaking ability. Pure rebounder that also has surpassingly nimble feet and hands and is also a solid playmaker from the face up 15 feet out.

I think that makes him a Brad Miller-type, down to the skin color.
   355. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 10, 2013 at 11:24 PM (#4568923)
I think that makes him a Brad Miller-type, down to the skin color.


I like it, I never got to see Brad much before he was slowed by the injuries with Chicago, but yea, good passing, fairly athletic big man that is good out of the triple threat position but doesn't offer much defensively other than rebounding, sounds good. Mitch is an intriguing player, like Love his hands are a vaccum that basketballs are sucked into and like Miller his feet are way too good for a 7 footer. On the flip side there are concerns about his drive and conditioning and ability to translate his game to the NBA against guys that are longer and more athletic.
   356. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: October 10, 2013 at 11:37 PM (#4568979)
#353 Marcus Smart is the next Frank Williams. He made, from a financial point of view, a terrible decision to stay in school and is no part of a historical draft class. Unless, of course, it turns out to be an historically overrated draft class.
   357. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2013 at 12:10 AM (#4569002)
David Thorpe is on a twitter binge praising Giannis Antetokounmpo. Anyone seen him play this preseason yet?

david b. thorpe ?@coachthorpe 12m
I intentionally waited a couple of hours before typing this...Chad Ford quoted a GM saying G Antetokounmpo needed 3 years to be a player...

david b. thorpe ?@coachthorpe 10m
After watching 2 games, he's part Batum, part P George, with a hunters' spirit like Durant. How's 3 years until he's a max player grab you?

david b. thorpe ?@coachthorpe 10m
I promise you, no NBA player this preseason is generating more buzz than Giannis Antetokounmpo. If any player needed a nickname, it's him.
   358. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2013 at 12:12 AM (#4569004)
Of course, he picked a funny night to do this. Antetokounmpo was 1/6 with 7reb, 4blk, 7TO tonight in 28mins. He was better in the Bucks' first preseason game, but nothing about the lines scores really jumps out at you at this point (not to say Thorpe is wrong, of course).
   359. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 11, 2013 at 12:16 AM (#4569007)
I think if he himself spells it Adetokunbo, we don't need to use the weird transliterated-into-Greek-and-then-back-into-English spelling.
   360. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 11, 2013 at 12:36 AM (#4569013)
I don't like the Miller/McGary comp.
Now, McGary will go in the first round, while Miller (bizarrely) wasn't drafted - but Miller, even without hindsight, was a better collegian and, in my mind, a more interesting prospect. (Note: McGary's health negatively impacts his numbers here.)

1) Miller is 2" taller.
2) Miller was a foul drawing machine, who was solid from the line (75% as a collegian). McGary goes infrequently and hit only 44% from there last season.
3) Miller had a good jump shot, McGary's is, at best, erratic.
4) Miller had solid moves in the low post (though there was concern as to whether or not he'd be quick enough with them at the next level), McGary did virtually nothing in the post last season - though he does look interesting in the pick and roll.
5) Both have quick feet and I'd give McGary an edge in general mobility - particularly as it pertains to defense and...
6) ...the boards. McGary is a focused, superior rebounder.
7) Miller showed more as a rim protector. It could be argued that McGary should play the four at the next level, but I don't know if I see that happening.
8) Both looked interesting as a passers for the five spot. Statwise, I give the edge to Miller (particularly as you move past his freshman year, which McGary has yet to do), but it's early.
   361. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2013 at 01:00 AM (#4569020)
I think if he himself spells it Adetokunbo, we don't need to use the weird transliterated-into-Greek-and-then-back-into-English spelling.

Hey, I'm just copying and pasting here. I can't spell it either way.
   362. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: October 11, 2013 at 01:01 AM (#4569021)
#353 Marcus Smart is the next Frank Williams. He made, from a financial point of view, a terrible decision to stay in school and is no part of a historical draft class. Unless, of course, it turns out to be an historically overrated draft class.
yeah, i'm not a fan of smart either. but, in defense of him going back to school another year, A) if his draft stock last year was overinflated, he would have dropped out of the top 10 anyway, B) he might actually improve his game by staying in school another year, as opposed to being chewed up by NBA competition, C) if he's actually good, his first contract will only be about 5% of his career earnings, and D) if he's not, the guaranteed money for a 1st round draft pick is a nice little chunk of change to start your adult life with.
   363. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 11, 2013 at 01:48 AM (#4569035)
I didn't watch the game and have no idea what exactly happened, but this made me really happy:
@JoeGoodmanJr By the way, Beasley punched himself in the head so hard tonight that he needed treatment after the game.
   364. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: October 11, 2013 at 01:50 AM (#4569036)
also in the 2014 draft:
willie cauley stein and isaiah austin - two legit 7 footers with serious athleticism.
i'm a huge fan of kyle anderson. 6'8 SF who averaged 3 assists, 2 steals and a block as a freshman.
i like sam dekkar as a shooter/scorer.
i love bryce cotton.


   365. smileyy Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:03 AM (#4569038)
Well, Xavier's Semaj Christon, who should be a starting point guard in the NBA with a reasonable chance to be an All-Star is projected at 12. I don't know what that stays about draft depth, but that's what I know about players in the draft.
   366. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:56 AM (#4569042)
@ 360 can't argue with much of that except to say I think (health pending) you'll see a different McGary this year for Michigan than last year. Of course his health is a big issue, if he's limited again in pre-season and is 10lbs too heavy at the start of the season we're not going to see the best of him until March once again. The McGary we saw in the tourney is not the Mcgary that featured in B1G play.

Regardless of how he pans out, I think it's a strong draft and it starts with Wiggans and Parker at the top.

______________________

I dunno if I'd trade Mirotic in a package for Horford as that still means they probably lose Deng for nothing. If anything the coup trade for Chicago this winter involves some variation of Deng and or Boozer for a young swingman or stretch 4... Noah is untouchable except for another star 5, of which there aren't many.
   367. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2013 at 03:40 AM (#4569046)
I dunno if I'd trade Mirotic in a package for Horford as that still means they probably lose Deng for nothing. If anything the coup trade for Chicago this winter involves some variation of Deng and or Boozer for a young swingman or stretch 4... Noah is untouchable except for another star 5, of which there aren't many.

If Atlanta were interested in that trade - and I agree that they aren't and probably shouldn't be - it would make much more sense for the Hawks to get Deng instead of Boozer. One, Deng is better, and two, he's an expiring contract. Then the Bulls could still hypothetically amnesty Boozer* after this season and try to sign a cheap option at the 2 or 3 to replace Deng. And the Bulls would still be competitive this season starting Rose/Butler/Dunleavy/Horford/Noah with Boozer as scoring off the bench and relegating Nazr to garbage/emergency minutes.

If I'm the Bulls, I jump at a Deng/Mirotic/picks deal to get Horford.

*Or try and trade him for a different overpaid wing type in a challenge/better fit type trade. But none jump out at me, outside of Gerald Wallace and no thanks.
   368. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2013 at 06:03 AM (#4569050)
Ziller with an excellent companion piece (criticism? extension?) of the Goldsberry one from the other day.

His top 10 (which includes FTs, and doesn't have as much location-specific stuff) is:

1. Durant
2. LBJ
3. Harden
4. Curry
5. Chandler
6. Ibaka
7. Kobe
8. Korver
9. Martin
10. Parker
   369. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 06:27 AM (#4569052)
[368] This reminds me of back when I used to blog and I would just find anything written by Baseball America, or some other big name, and try to pick it apart. I took the Goldsberry piece as an attempt to measure the best shooters in the NBA. Ziller, IMO, misreads the intent or perhaps he just looked at the headline and skimmed the actual piece. Goldsberry even writes:

While it's tempting to claim that our stats are "advanced" now, think about these two basic questions:

1. Who is the best shooter in the NBA?
2. What metrics would you use to justify your answer to this question?


   370. RollingWave Posted: October 11, 2013 at 06:33 AM (#4569053)
On average, there's only about 1 guy every 2 to 3 draft that's truly a #1 player on a championship team piece (as in, they actually won a championship as the best player, or at least came quite close. right now I list the entire NBA those players are Duncan / James / Durant / Howard / Garnett / Bryant / Dirk and that's the ENTIRE list, you could be a bit more lax and maybe get it up to about 15 guys but in reality only those 7 guys are proven and only 3 of them are still in their prime.)

I too feel the odds are this class ends up being wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy overblown and several of the guys mentioned turn into Shabazz / Rivers , some turn into really good player but not a real championship one (say Lamarcus Aldridge), some turn into clearly talented but overall flawed players (say Rudy Gay / Rajon Rondo types) and mayyyybe at best 2 guys are anywhere near the real franchise player type. that would already make it the best draft ever really, odds that Wiggins turn into a rich man's Rudy Gay and is the best player in this draft is probably higher.

If your the Sixers / Suns then tanking is reasonable as your hand is so bad that you might as well fold, but at this point some folks are essentially saying you should fold your full house because it's not a Royal Flush, which is insane.

A lot of the teams right now are approaching it not unlike the Rockets a few years back, they are not going to be contenders but may be fringe playoff teams, however they avoid horrible contracts and stock up on good assets and hopefully they can cash in at some point, this seems like a much more sensible middle of the road solution for most teams. because if you look at the list I threw out there, only *1* guy on that list was drafted top 5, AND won a Championship with the team he was drafted by. though I suppose if your criteria is only to reach the finals, then 3 more guys are legit.

As of now, I only see maybe 3 teams as true tankers, Sixers / Suns and mayyyybe Magic, everyone else is not actually tanking. If your signing any veterans worth a damn, your not tanking.

Morey and Cuban both said something to this effect in the offseason, Morey pointed out that if you don't get a top 5 pick while tanking, it's probably the worst outcome possible, and if everyone tank then surely your odds aren't too good, and even if you get the pick you could easily draft Greg Oden or Michael Beasley. Guy who were very legitimately thought of as game changing talent, but then..... not so much. While Cuban points out the simple fact that it's not a competitive advantage if everyone's doing it.
   371. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2013 at 06:41 AM (#4569055)
[368] This reminds me of back when I used to blog and I would just find anything written by Baseball America, or some other big name, and try to pick it apart. I took the Goldsberry piece as an attempt to measure the best shooters in the NBA. Ziller, IMO, misreads the intent or perhaps he just looked at the headline and skimmed the actual piece.

That was my first thought too. The fact that he came up with a whole new stat just to counter what was a well thought out and thoroughly researched piece seemed a little off-putting. But he does have some good points though.
   372. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 11, 2013 at 06:47 AM (#4569056)
On average, there's only about 1 guy every 2 to 3 draft that's truly a #1 player on a championship team piece (as in, they actually won a championship as the best player, or at least came quite close. right now I list the entire NBA those players are Duncan / James / Durant / Howard / Garnett / Bryant / Dirk and that's the ENTIRE list, you could be a bit more lax and maybe get it up to about 15 guys but in reality only those 7 guys are proven and only 3 of them are still in their prime.)

Not to be all Zillery*, if KG is on that list, Wade should be, too. And if Durant, arguably Howard. Your larger point stands. Without knowing which players are going to still be rated as highly, or higher, or lower after this upcoming season, it still feels like it can be another LBJ/Melo/Wade/Bosh type draft even if Wiggins falls short of LBJ (and I'd have to assume he's going to, just because LBJ is going to be the GOAT when all is said and done).

*Not criticizing him, just funny considering my last post is all that I'm doing something similar.
   373. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 11, 2013 at 06:52 AM (#4569057)
I'd like to co-sign the last two posts, please.
   374. RollingWave Posted: October 11, 2013 at 08:12 AM (#4569070)
On Wade, yeah , you could argue him too, though there is an argument that Shaq was the best player on the 06 Heat. and certainly Shaq is by far the better player in the career context. (in 05-06 Shaq had a bit higher RAPM, but Wade had the highest Winshare, so ok, let's put Wade in too.)

And I did put Howard in obviously ;)
   375. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:03 AM (#4569118)
On average, there's only about 1 guy every 2 to 3 draft that's truly a #1 player on a championship team piece (as in, they actually won a championship as the best player, or at least came quite close.

I agree with this. My point was moreso that based on the scouts/draftniks reports, the quality of this draft is such that there are a much larger number than usual guys with the tools/signs of either being a #1 championship piece or a solid #1 or Top 3 or so in any other year where the other top guys from their class just did not exist. The greatest draft classes ever are, in some order, '84, '96 and '03. If you were a team that walked away from the '84 Draft with either Dream, MJ, Barkley, or Stockton you did extremely well for yourself. If you walked away with even Kevin Willis, Alvin Robertson or Otis Thorpe you probably did really well compared to typical/avg draft production as well. From '96 you have Camby, Iverson, Abdur-Rahim, Marbury, Shuttlesworth, Satan, Nash, Big Z, Jermaine O'Neal, Peja, maybe even Antoine Walker that you would be happy with. '03 you have LeBron, Wade, Melo, Bosh, Kaman, West, maaaaaybe Josh Howard and Mo Williams. So none of these guys may be LeBron and, at this point, there's little certainty about which one(s) of these guys will really emerge but there seems to be high potential to get excellent return on your Top 7 or so pick.

While I would love for my team to only do things that assure championship contention the reality is that sometimes you have to just put quality pieces together and have a team that is just good and hope that if/when things break your way you are able to contend. While most of the guys I mentioned never won championships or, if they did, they may not have been The Guy on those teams they were all players of pretty solid quality that could have been integral parts of very good teams with the right roster construction. Most years there's not that many guys you go into the draft thinking that about and you're just really hoping for "not a bust" or someone who will help in a very specific/limited capacity.

Apologies for the rambling, typed this while going back and forth between a million things at work.
   376. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:21 AM (#4569133)
Antetokounmpo was 1/6 with 7reb, 4blk, 7TO tonight in 28mins. He was better in the Bucks' first preseason game, but nothing about the lines scores really jumps out at you at this point (not to say Thorpe is wrong, of course).

I watched some of last night's Bucks/Twolves game and Giannis definitely jumps off the screen. He traveled 2-3 times in the 10 minutes or so of game time that I saw him play, but also made some really impressive plays. The guy was all over the place, both in the sense that his performance was erratic and the literal sense that he has the athleticism to cover so much court. It is really easy to watch him and dream about the player he'll be with good coaching and when he's not, you know, 18 years old and still growing.
   377. Srul Itza Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:28 AM (#4569136)
Went to the Lakers-Kings game at the MGM Grand last night. Kobe better get well soon.
   378. Publius Publicola Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:31 AM (#4569141)
I think that makes him a Brad Miller-type, down to the skin color.


McGary is much stronger than Miller. I think a better comp would be Jeff Ruland or Big Country Reeves.
   379. Publius Publicola Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:33 AM (#4569143)
Not to be all Zillery*, if KG is on that list, Wade should be, too.


Completely disagree. Wade isn't/wasn't anywhere near the player Garnett is/was.
   380. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:38 AM (#4569146)
Completely disagree. Wade isn't/wasn't anywhere near the player Garnett is/was.

Considering that Wade won a title ('06) while being the #1 guy on said team I find it hard to believe that criteria could exist by which Prime Wade is not considered good enough to be the #1 guy on a title team.

Shumpert can really shoot. He's going to be a real asset for the Knicks.

If Shumpert can shoot, or just be a plus for the Knicks offensively, that's huge.
   381. Publius Publicola Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:41 AM (#4569149)
here's a youtube clip of Antetokounmpo:

Giannis Antetokounmpo highlights

Looks like he has very good range, court vision and length.
   382. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:49 AM (#4569154)
I've never been comfortable grading Giannis - too far away. Sure looks interesting, though.

McGary is much stronger than Miller.

Not sure about "much", but yes. McGary is more of an athlete, Miller is more of a "basketball player". (Not a knock on McGary - he was a freshman last year.)

Wade should be on the list. I'd rather have KG.

Shumpert - he's not that different than he was at GT. Does a lot of things well... sometimes. Those guys occasionally explode into something special (like Paul George), but most of the time they just kind of stay erratic and interesting (like Iman Shumpert).

Oh, also, Atlanta doesn't do the idea discussed upthread - no way.
   383. Publius Publicola Posted: October 11, 2013 at 10:51 AM (#4569156)
Considering that Wade won a title ('06) while being the #1 guy


Shaq was the #1 guy. Wade scored more points but Shaq was the key to that team. Saying Wade was the number 1 guy is like saying Pierce was the #1 guy on the '08 Celtics or Kobe was the #1 guy on the '02 Lakers or Parker was the #1 guy on the '07 Spurs.

None of those guys could anchor a defense, draw the interior double downs or control the boards. Shaq made is easy for Wade by drawing so much attention away from him.
   384. The Buddy Biancalana Hit Counter Posted: October 11, 2013 at 11:06 AM (#4569165)
Upon reflection, I was a bit harsh above regarding Marcus Smart's potential. It's at least as likely he's the next Jamaal Tinsley as the next Frank Williams.
   385. kpelton Posted: October 11, 2013 at 11:15 AM (#4569173)
Morey pointed out that if you don't get a top 5 pick while tanking, it's probably the worst outcome possible ...

Morey has also been pretty clear that he would have tanked had Leslie Alexander not been against it. The fact that Philadelphia tore down more than anyone else this summer seems to support that theory.

RE: Draft quality. Tough to analyze statistically, but what I think I would say about this draft is that while none of the individual players save perhaps Wiggins are overwhelmingly likely to be franchise players, the fact that there are so many possible franchise players implies that several of them will pan out successfully by this time next June. That's what makes this draft so alluring.

After watching last night's WNBA Finals .... Mitch McGary comp: Janel McCarville?
   386. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 11:22 AM (#4569179)
RE: Draft quality. Tough to analyze statistically, but what I think I would say about this draft is that while none of the individual players save perhaps Wiggins are overwhelmingly likely to be franchise players, the fact that there are so many possible franchise players implies that several of them will pan out successfully by this time next June. That's what makes this draft so alluring.

This is what I was trying to say. Thanks, Kevin.
   387. King Mekong Posted: October 11, 2013 at 11:44 AM (#4569205)
Exum looks pretty impressive too. Liked this article about him in grantland back during the FIBA summer stuff. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/68170/dante-exum-the-fiba-u19-world-championships-and-the-purest-form-of-nba-draft-nerddom
   388. nick swisher hygiene Posted: October 11, 2013 at 12:29 PM (#4569237)
301, 368, 369--ok, this gets weirder. BOTH GUYS have Serge Ibaka at #6.

edit: gotta agree with NJ here....I mean dude writes this in criticism of Goldsberry:

"ShotScore elevates: the guys who shoot long twos abnormally well (i.e. the Chris Boshes). Goldsberry's top 10 in ShotScore includes Serge Ibaka (a 15 ppg scorer who drains long, assisted, twos at a high rate)..."

....and then Ibaka ALSO IS #6 on his own list!
   389. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 11, 2013 at 01:35 PM (#4569274)
....and then Ibaka ALSO IS #6 on his own list!

That's no big deal to me - the issue is that Ziller criticized Goldsberry's approach in answering a question that was different than the question Goldsberry was trying to answer. If you want to say 'Goldsberry's question is irrelevant', I think you've got a potentially good argument, but I don't think that that's what Ziller was saying.

EDIT: I enjoyed Goldsberry's bit, but in the "fun toy" sense and agree that the approach was both overly complicated and probably should have included free throws.
Also, both of these dudes do good work - I'm glad they're around.
   390. King Mekong Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:01 PM (#4569301)
It seems like the current method for determining the best Free Throw shooters gets you 99% of the way there (FT%), so I'm not sure if it's really needed for Goldsberry's question. Agree with 389, Ziller's article is tearing holes in a strawman.
   391. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:05 PM (#4569305)
Any thoughts on the SCHOENE projections so far? Anyone want to kick off the thread predictions?
   392. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:06 PM (#4569308)
390/KM: Since Goldsberry looked at points above the average shooter in the same "situation" (spot, etc...) - seems like it would be interesting to add free throws (and make it relative to the league FT%, not eFG%).
   393. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:09 PM (#4569312)
391/NJ: Team or individual?
   394. King Mekong Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:16 PM (#4569320)
392/DK, ah yeah that makes sense, would be another good component for "Best Shooter" in the way Goldsberry is doing it.
   395. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:20 PM (#4569324)
[393] Either. I haven't read the features on either the Wolves or the Pistons yet, but I was surprised to see both land so high (5th in respective conferences). Then again, the Wolves did rate well on paper going into last season before all the injuries hit and the Pistons aren't so much "high" as they are "higher than the Knicks" considering the present state of the East. Looking forward to reading both pieces later.
   396. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4569329)
Anyone want to kick off the thread predictions?


won't do win totals because they prolly won't add up but I'll do my EC seedings:

Chicago
Miami
Pacers
BK
NYK
Det
Cle
Mil

Yikes, the east is awful after the big 3. I think their are clear tiers with Bulls, Heat, Pacers at the top, then a drop to BK, NY, then another big drop to Det/Cle/Mia
   397. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:28 PM (#4569331)
I always until the last second to do my own predictions.

Individual: I liked them, by and large, though I was only half kidding (3/4 kidding?) when I said that they were too short. Stats as shown were too limited to be of much use to me. I also like WARP / WinPct less than some other uberstats, but that might be more on me.

Haven't read much of the team stuff yet - liked what I've gotten to.
   398. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: October 11, 2013 at 02:59 PM (#4569369)
Ziller didn't do an amazing job introducing his argument and metric, but I thought it was a valid counterpoint. Getting buckets and scoring points are two overlapping but different points (ha) of inquiry.
   399. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 03:11 PM (#4569378)
Ziller didn't do an amazing job introducing his argument and metric, but I thought it was a valid counterpoint.

What was he countering though? He and Goldsberry were discussing two different things IMO.
   400. NJ in NY (Now with Baby!) Posted: October 11, 2013 at 03:12 PM (#4569380)
FLIP
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