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1. Cooper Nielson Posted: November 19, 2012 at 07:20 AM (#4305781)Somehow, I doubt this will be sufficient...
Plus, in Miami, he'll get to play every day.
This is significantly younger than I would have guessed.
I am a little surprised Derek Lee retired when he did.
He played 130 games in Philadelphia last year (starting 98). And 158 last year. And 160 the year before. It's kind of baffling how much playing time he gets. I assumed he's been a 4th OF for a long time, but he only started playing less than part-time last year with the Phillies. He was injured in 2008, but otherwise has been healthy and starting almost his entire career.
Baseball-Reference WAR has him at an average of just 0.6 for the past 4 seasons. Their defensive numbers are very different from Fangraphs'.
One result is that if he's healthy he'll probably be over 2300 hits at the end of the season. 3000 seems out of reach, but it's possible to imagine him retiring with something approaching Johnny Damon's 2769 hits.
Wow! I'm surprised to hear that--I know he played regularly last year due to injuries/trade, but would have sworn he'd been a part-timer with the White Sox and Dodgers.
HA.
You don't sign Juan Pierre for 5 years (!) to make him a fourth outfielder, by Jove.
He was a part time player with the dodgers, once they figured out he wasn't worth playing full time and picked up Manny. He started only 71 and 76 games his 2nd and 3rd seasons there, but Ozzie played him everyday. He has been a part time player in 3 of the past 5 seasons with his two in Chicago being the aberration.
He doesn't stand a snow ball's chance in hades of getting there. He's averaged about 115 hits since becoming a part time OF, which would get him there part way through his age 42 season, with no decline. The only reason he played full time for the White Sox was because it only cost them $5 million for the two years thanks to the dodgers largesse, but he'll never have that opportunity again.
Who's standing in the way of him playing full time next season? Bryan Petersen? Gorkys Hernandez? I expect he starts 120+ games again.
well, he's morphed from a player into some sort of virus, so i guess he could hang around.
Yes, and any of the other six OF on their 40 man roster, then throw in Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. I think they have a couple of Ball Girls and a member of their cheer squad who used to play OF, too.
Fell just short -- ~75 hits -- of getting Damon to 3000.
Jamie Moyer retired at 287 wins (I resigned him to his age 51 season, but he retired instead).
I did get Vlad to 500 HRs, Omar Vizquel to 3000 hits, I-Rod to 3000 hits, though.
Livan Hernandez is, remarkably, only 37.
I think it overstates it by a wide margin and it is pretty much entirely out of the question at this point. Damon, a much better player all throughout his career, was 129 hits closer at the end of his age 34 season and could barely find a job this year. No one is going to give Pierre a full time job just for him to chase 3,000 and you don't get there just by hanging around.
There have been 39 guys to get at least 850 hits after turning 35, Pierre needs 859, but most of them were legitimately great players or guys who also DH'ed some. Pierre does not meet either of those criteria. Even if you include the two years in Chicago, which I still contend were an aberration, he's only averaged 140 hits a year over the past five years. He'd need to do that for another 6 years to get to 3,000. Do you honestly see playing for another six years, let alone continuing to get that level of playing time and experiencing no decline in performance?
French-Canadians?
Isn't it French-Mexicans who are his target demographic?
And I'm with alilsd. Juan Pierre, as much as I love that slappy little bastard, has no chance at 3,000 hits.
Isn't Damon a pretty good illustration of James's observation that players retire not because they can't hit anymore, but because they can't play defense anymore? If Damon could still play a decent outfield, he'd have had a much better chance of holding on in some capacity. But he was pretty much a DH by 2011, and couldn't hit enough to stick. So I don't think it's a given, yet, that Damon was a better player throughout his career, as Pierre can still sort of play an OF position. I don't think he comes close to 3000, but don't overrate the case for Damon's twighlight.
Not for the jersey market. Only the last name on the back and all.
Could be, I hadn't thought about it. I think it's true, it sounds true, if he were more of an option in the OF, he'd have a better chance at a job, but bWAR doesn't think he's a bad OF although I think everyone agrees he has no arm (but then neither does Pierre). bWAR also thinks he's still a good baserunner and he's clearly still a good, though no prolific, base stealer. It would seem if he can still run, he can still play the OF. He can definitely still hit, unless last year was his true talent dropping from OPS+ of around 110 all the way to 73, but maybe he's not what teams think of when they think DH. Not enough of a bopper?
Damon regularly had seasons of around 115 OPS+, 11 over 100 and is at 104 for his career. Pierre has only two seasons over 100 and is at 85 for his career. Damon is better on the bases, about 400 steals at an 80% success rate and 76 Rbaser. Pierre has more steals, 591 to 408, but at a lower success rate, 75%, and is only at 52 Rbaser. Damon would have to be a much worse defender than Pierre for Juan to even get close and Rfield likes Damon better than Pierre. Not seeing Pierre even close to Damon and 52.1 Career WAR to 15.3 bares that out.
Pierre actually was popular with the Haitian community in South Florida during his first stint there. Even though he's not Haitian, many of the fans assumed he was due to his last name.
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