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Saturday, December 31, 2011

Padres acquire Carlos Quentin from the White Sox

As Byrnes put it, “We twa hae run about the braes after being hit by a pitch, and pu’d the gowans fine.”

The Padres just announced that they have acquired outfielder Carlos Quentin from the White Sox for prospect right-hander Simon Castro and prospect left-hander Pedro Hernandez.

The District Attorney Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:01 PM | 41 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: padres, white sox

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   1. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:32 PM (#4026329)
Not sure where Quentin plays, but this is an extraordinarily minute price to pay for him.
   2. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:39 PM (#4026332)
Quentin's one year away from free agency, so he'll cost maybe $6-8M for 2012 and then be gone. He's not a very good player - he can't field or run, and his bat is good not great - but he's probably better than 1/6 or 1/8.

I really don't understand what Kenny Williams is doing. I guess you could make the case that he hopes to contend by 2014, and he'll have Danks for two more seasons even after that, and he wants to maintain some roster continuity and win a few games. That's not a terrible explanation, I guess.
   3. UCCF Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:39 PM (#4026333)
Yeah, this looks like a bit of a steal. I can't believe there's not a team out there with OF problems that might have paid a little more for a 3 WAR guy (last year at least) likely to get less than $10M in arbitration.

I'm looking at you San Francisco (and not just because you're right outside my window).
   4. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:46 PM (#4026338)
So, where are we on Quentin's d - below average or horrendous? His #s vary quite a bit by year (enough to give him negative FG WAR over the '09-'10 timeframe) - I know ZiPS still has him w/ poor range. How will he fare in Petco?

Well, the Sox are buying low with Castro - this is okay if he's what some people thought he was a year or so ago.
   5. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#4026339)
Reposting from the dugout: Quentin will be a free agent after next year. I don't know if he'll be a Type A or not but I think the new CBA stipulates a team has to have the upcoming FA for the entire year to get the draft pick. I actually think this is a slick move for the Padres (assuming Quentin will be a Type A), and that we'll be seeing more off-season trades for quality guys that will be free agents after the next season.
   6. JRVJ Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:51 PM (#4026340)
Not knowing how the baseball industry works, I wonder why this went down on December 31st. Are there any material contractual or tax reasons why this HAD to be done today and not next week?
   7. Jimmy P Posted: December 31, 2011 at 08:53 PM (#4026342)
I really don't understand what Kenny Williams is doing. I guess you could make the case that he hopes to contend by 2014, and he'll have Danks for two more seasons even after that, and he wants to maintain some roster continuity and win a few games. That's not a terrible explanation, I guess

It appears the plan is that there is no plan. Kenny's peripatetic behavior is not good for a team that is supposedly rebuilding.
   8. Stately, Plump Buck Mulligan Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:03 PM (#4026344)
That's not a terrible explanation, I guess.


Here's another one: The White Sox think they can replace Quentin's production by sticking Viciedo in RF, so they just offloaded Quentin to save on salary. And, since Cooper has a good reputation for turning around top prospects who have fallen on hard times (like Thornton, Floyd, and Humber, to name three), they figure maybe he can make something of Castro.

So far this off-season, Williams has traded Quentin (age 29) and Santos (age 28), and let Buehrle (age 33) leave. In exchange, he acquired Molina (age 23) and Castro (age 24), and will fit Dayan Viciedo (age 23), Addison Reed (age 23) and Chris Sale (age 23) into the spots vacated by the three departed players. Getting younger would appear to be the plan, wouldn't it? (And if I'm right, you can probably expect Thornton (age 35) to be the next to go.)
   9. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:05 PM (#4026346)
So, where are we on Quentin's d - below average or horrendous? His #s vary quite a bit by year (enough to give him negative FG WAR over the '09-'10 timeframe) - I know ZiPS still has him w/ poor range. How will he fair in Petco?

I saw Jermaine Dye lumber around in RF for a few years -- that's my personal standard for horrendous. So I'd go with "solidly below average", although that might be parsing words. UZR doesn't rate Quentin's defense (although last year he was average by that standard), and he's below average in Tango's past few Fans' Scouting Reports.

On the deal and Kenny Williams' plan as a whole, I was working from a hypothesis that the Sox weren't really rebuilding, but rather that Williams was cutting salary in places where he could afford it. Sale replaces Buehrle, Reed replaces Santos, and overall production is similar. The pitching staff is still pretty good, and he banks on a handful of offensive players bouncing back or stepping forward. This deal, though, kind of throws a fork in that. It's not the return that throws me -- Castro is exactly the type of guy the Sox love getting their hands on -- but losing Quentin for next year appears to be a 2-3 win loss. I know Viciedo steps in, and I'm okay with that, but that means Rios is now a full-time starter instead of a caddy for De Aza/fill-in when Quentin got hurt. So now I'm lost.

Maybe it's just cutting some salary to bring in Cespedes? Cut me some slack -- these days, hope is in short supply on the south side.
   10. Dewey, Soupuss Not Doomed to Succeed Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:06 PM (#4026347)
Not sure where Quentin plays, but this is an extraordinarily minute price to pay for him.

It would be if Quentin were guaranteed to be healthy. He's an exciting player when he's healthy. Problem is he's always hurt, and guys that are always hurt aren't worth very much.

This is about what I expected in return for Quentin - a couple of mediocre prospects.
   11. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:23 PM (#4026359)
I really don't understand what Kenny Williams is doing. I guess you could make the case that he hopes to contend by 2014, and he'll have Danks for two more seasons even after that, and he wants to maintain some roster continuity and win a few games. That's not a terrible explanation, I guess.


Well, Kenny can't really do a *complete* re-build, because many of the players on the major league roster are just untradeable- I'm specifically talking about Rios & Dunn, Konerko & Peavy too I guess. Plus, they've got a bunch of relatively young guys who will receive plenty of playing time this year- Morel, Beckham, Viciedo, Sale, and Reed.

Re-signing Danks was a no-brainer, unless they were going to get a grade-A prospect back by trading him (and I don't think that was going to happen). He's signed through his prime years, and if the Sox do fall apart early next season, I'm sure he can still be dealt; look at what Oakland got for Gio & Cahill, and I'd say Danks is better than Gonzalez (probably better than Cahill too, though Danks is older).

A team run by Kenny Williams will never be in complete re-building mode, like the Astros of today or the Rays of the early-aughts. The Sox organization hasn't undergone a complete re-build since like '97.
   12. BDC Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:24 PM (#4026360)
For all the time I spend on B-Ref, my impression of a player is still mightily colored by seeing him in person. I have a strong image of Quentin as an elite hitter; come to find that his lifetime line in Arlington is .327/.407/.692, best of any city he's played in. All things considered, I am not that sad to see him leave for the NL (though at that, the Rangers will play a series in SD next year, and don't play the White Sox all that much).
   13. Walt Davis Posted: December 31, 2011 at 09:38 PM (#4026370)
Well, Kenny can't really do a *complete* re-build, because many of the players on the major league roster are just untradeable- I'm specifically talking about Rios & Dunn, Konerko & Peavy too I guess.

I'd say Konerko is plenty tradeable. Somehow the man hits better now than he ever did and he only costs $12.5 a year. A cliff candidate signed for 2 more years so maybe they'd have to eat a little salary but not a lot I don't think. Tampa would probably love to find a way to fit his salary in but I doubt that would work.

And I've been calling him a cliff candidate for at least 6 years now so I know what I'm talking about! :-)

hope is in short supply on the south side.

And Theo's doing the same thing on the north side. We have more hope I guess because he's THEO!!! but it's still no fun to watch.

And Oakland's nearly suicidal, Mets fans are in deep despair, Ms fans would rather read the weather report than the sports pages, Astros fans feel like men (and baseball chicks!) without a league, Dodgers fans will stop leaving in the 7th because they won't be showing up in the 3rd, Twins fans feel like they have a concussion and Pirates fans are remembering last summer when they almost thought they'd get to kiss the pretty girl only to find out she was just using them to make LaRussa jealous.

Happy Holidays!!
   14. Sweatpants Posted: December 31, 2011 at 10:09 PM (#4026385)
Isn't Quentin a guy who's generally helped by the White Sox home park?
   15. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: December 31, 2011 at 10:25 PM (#4026390)
Isn't Quentin a guy who's generally helped by the White Sox home park?

Compared to Petco, certainly.
   16. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:12 PM (#4026400)
This is the second time Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes have traded Carlos Quentin between each other.
   17. alilisd Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:14 PM (#4026401)
If he's not a plus defender, he'll be horrendous in Petco's RF. It's cavernous and has a quirky angle, the "Petco Porch." He'll be fine in LF with Maybin flanking him, but it will be a disaster if they try to play him in RF.
   18. TerpNats Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:26 PM (#4026404)
hope is in short supply on the south side.

And Theo's doing the same thing on the north side. We have more hope I guess because he's THEO!!! but it's still no fun to watch.

And Oakland's nearly suicidal, Mets fans are in deep despair, Ms fans would rather read the weather report than the sports pages, Astros fans feel like men (and baseball chicks!) without a league, Dodgers fans will stop leaving in the 7th because they won't be showing up in the 3rd, Twins fans feel like they have a concussion and Pirates fans are remembering last summer when they almost thought they'd get to kiss the pretty girl only to find out she was just using them to make LaRussa jealous.
In contrast, we Nationals fans are actually cautiously optimistic, although realizing the franchise's more likely time of arrival as some sort of postseason contender is 2013. Still, this being Washington baseball, where fatalism has reigned for close to 80 years, there's always the likelihood of a banana peel somewhere. Fans who were around D.C. in the spring of 1970, following the first winning season for any Senators team since 1952, know the feeling all too well.
   19. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:29 PM (#4026406)
So, where are we on Quentin's d - below average or horrendous? His #s vary quite a bit by year (enough to give him negative FG WAR over the '09-'10 timeframe) - I know ZiPS still has him w/ poor range. How will he fare in Petco?


His defense in 2011 was visibly improved from 2010. I'd imagine he'd give that improvement back in Petco.

This trade seems fair.
   20. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:29 PM (#4026407)
This is the second time Kenny Williams and Josh Byrnes have traded Carlos Quentin between each other.

Kinda like when he and Pat Gillick traded Gio Gonzalez back and forth.
   21. Something Other Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:35 PM (#4026408)
Well, Kenny can't really do a *complete* re-build, because many of the players on the major league roster are just untradeable- I'm specifically talking about Rios & Dunn, Konerko & Peavy too I guess.

I'd say Konerko is plenty tradeable. Somehow the man hits better now than he ever did and he only costs $12.5 a year. A cliff candidate signed for 2 more years so maybe they'd have to eat a little salary but not a lot I don't think. Tampa would probably love to find a way to fit his salary in but I doubt that would work.
Are we talking about stealth HOF candidate Paul Konerko? Career high in walks, improving walk to strikeout ratio, as durable as he's ever been. Last year and this are his two best years by OPS+. Something groovy's going on.

It does seem odd that a player with 400 HRs, reasonably durable, defense that's either average or a little below, who can take a walk and who hits for a respectable average, in 8163 PAs has a bWAR around 25. That's awfully low. Awfully low. I realize he gets dinged everywhere; double plays, baserunning, even reached on errors, but still... He doesn't have anything like Joe Carter's OBP, for instance. Has Konerko really been worth only two wins per 653 plate appearances?
   22. Jack Keefe Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:35 PM (#4026409)
Williams has traded Quentin (age 29) and Santos (age 28), and let Buehrle (age 33) leave

Hey do not for get Al Mr Williams has left Ozzie Guillen age 49 and Jack Keefe age 29 leaf for the My Hammy Marlins.

Al I just made a joke. My Hammy Marlins. I know they are not called that but it seemed like a Punt. I will try them more often Al.
   23. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:48 PM (#4026413)
Happy New Year, Jack.
   24. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: December 31, 2011 at 11:50 PM (#4026417)
What have been the nature of his injuries? If he has to patrol a large OF and can't get any rest as a DH, this seems like a poor fit.
   25. JoeC Posted: January 01, 2012 at 12:08 AM (#4026426)
Has Konerko really been worth only two wins per 653 plate appearances?


Yeah - 2 WAR comes out to "averageish starter," which is what he's pretty much been except for 2003 and 2010-11. It's a bit weird to think that an averageish player could get to 400 HR, but an average first basemen has an OPS+ around 120, and of course homers have been easier to come by during Konerko's career.

Konerko's career shape has been a little deceiving too - these last two years aren't just an older player beating the odds and playing at his peak again, they're an older player suddenly reaching a level he'd never approached before. It's fun to watch, and I'm glad it's happening now and not in 2004 so we don't have so many armchair skeptics questioning its legitimacy. (Not that anybody's 100% sure even now, but what fun is it when anything extraordinary is assumed to be cheating and can't be enjoyed for what it is? You know, the reason the Tour de France got briefly popular in the US and then dove back down to Davis Cup/World Series of Poker levels.)
   26. Tricky Dick Posted: January 01, 2012 at 01:28 AM (#4026452)
I actually think this is a slick move for the Padres (assuming Quentin will be a Type A),


Under the new CBA,as I understand it, there will be no Type A or B players. The free agent compensation is available only if the Padres offer him a 1 year contract at a prescribed salary level and he turns down the contract and signs elsewhere.
   27. Walt Davis Posted: January 01, 2012 at 01:48 AM (#4026460)
Konerko is also hitting into fewer DPs now.

Yes, I love that by WAR Konerko is the almost exactly average player -- Rrep of 273, Rrar of 264 puts him 9 runs below average for his career.

He's kinda the Johnny Damon of 1B. Konerko's got a reasonable shot at 500 HR and/or 1500 RBI like Damon's got a reasonable shot at 3000 hits (less than 300 away now).

However Damon has a now extremely respectable 51 WAR despite his mere 105 OPS+. The difference between the two will put your WAR faith to the test ...

Konerko loses 109 runs through Rbaser, Rroe, Rdp and Rfield; Damon picks up 144 runs through those. So that's 253 runs or roughly 25 wins. Damon also has a lot more playing time (sheesh, the guy's to nearly 10,700 PA).

Alas, Konerko's speed numbers are easy to believe -- just means he's slow as death. RH guys with power usually do OK on Rroe at least but not him. The man has hit only 3 triples in the last 11 years. In a Starkian moment, here are your career leaders (3000+ PA) in HR/triple ratio:

Barajas 125/1
McGwire 583/6
Hoiles 151/2
McCann 136/2
Kittle 176/3
Piazza 427/8
Konerko 396/8
VMart 143/3
Giambi 429/9
CFielder 319/7

Damon's might be a little tougher to believe -- 14th (t) most Rbaser in history (although I'm not sure how far back in history Rbaser really go). And, just for kicks, among LHB, Damon has the most (tied with Pinson) Rroe of all-time with 15. The next highest are Greg Gross and Del Unser at 10. He's also #1 all-time in Rdp for LHB (1 ahead of Ichiro). Based on these, Damon has a case for best baserunner ever among LHB and top 5 all-time. Add the three and WAR puts him slightly ahead of Raines.

Damon is kinda the player they thought Lou Brock was -- i.e. without the flashy SB numbers but with better defense and somewhat better OBP.
   28. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: January 01, 2012 at 01:59 AM (#4026468)
The free agent compensation is available only if the Padres offer him a 1 year contract at a prescribed salary level and he turns down the contract and signs elsewhere.

Thanks, Tricky. That's what I was thinking of. That prescribed salary level is supposed to be the average of the top 125 salaries in that year, which should be about 11m or 12m per I'm going off my memory of what I read elsewhere). A player like Carlos Quentin who will be a free agent for the first time will almost certainly turn that down, so the Padres should still get compensation.
   29. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: January 01, 2012 at 02:06 AM (#4026473)
26 - yup. Tender a qualifying offer for 1 yr and $X ... This yr, X would've been $12.5m, iirc.

Thanks for the d assessments...

EDIT: coke to dock.
   30. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 01, 2012 at 02:47 AM (#4026485)
In theory, this seems fair, but I can't shake the feeling that Quentin's glove in PETCO is a bad idea.
   31. shoewizard Posted: January 01, 2012 at 03:03 AM (#4026489)
Thanks, Tricky. That's what I was thinking of. That prescribed salary level is supposed to be the average of the top 125 salaries in that year, which should be about 11m or 12m per I'm going off my memory of what I read elsewhere). A player like Carlos Quentin who will be a free agent for the first time will almost certainly turn that down, so the Padres should still get compensation.


Unless he gets hurt again....he might accept that and try to come back and rebuild value on a one year deal. Problem is hitters can't "build value" playing in Petco unless they are Adrian Gonzalez.
   32. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: January 01, 2012 at 03:58 AM (#4026497)
Not knowing how the baseball industry works, I wonder why this went down on December 31st. Are there any material contractual or tax reasons why this HAD to be done today and not next week?
So the charitable deduction will apply to their 2011 returns.
   33. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: January 01, 2012 at 04:29 AM (#4026510)
Are the Padres working on some super secret 6 man first base platoon? Interesting.

But seriously, I think it's a good sign and flip-at-the-deadline opportunity for San Diego.
   34. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: January 01, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4026585)
What have been the nature of his injuries? If he has to patrol a large OF and can't get any rest as a DH, this seems like a poor fit.


One time he got mad about a foul ball, so he punched his bat and broke a bone. That may have cost him the 2008 MVP. Quentin only became a RF because Juan Pierre's arm is so bad and they already have too many DH's.
   35. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 01, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4026666)
Quentin seems a poor fit for the Padres.

Or maybe that's just me
   36. Something Other Posted: January 01, 2012 at 08:06 PM (#4026669)
@25, 27: nifty elaborations, gents. I'd never thought of Damon as other than a very good baserunner. That he might be one of the best ever, even if it's only since Rbaser's been in the works, well, if it's true that's one more data point to tell me that my eyes are rough tools when it comes to evaluating ballplayers.

I enjoyed that earlier thread, a couple of months back, on Damon and the HOF. Of all the balllplayers who might get into the discussion by reaching one of the major milestones, I think Konerko nips him for the top spot on the "I Never Really Thought of Him as a..." list. Still and all, if Damon gets to 3000 hits he'll have accumulated other markers that tend to go with a HOF career; he'll be up around 1800 runs, he'll be in the top 20 in PAs and top 30 in games played, top 60 in stolen bases, top 25 in doubles. He looks like he'll drop below 50+% of his games played in CF. That's a small ding. Funny. BBRef's page on Damon omits games at DH for his career.

If I were betting on it, if Damon gets 3,000 hits and Konerko gets 500 HRs and only one of them makes the Hall, it's got to be Damon, right?
   37. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: January 01, 2012 at 08:15 PM (#4026674)
Still and all, if Damon gets to 3000 hits he'll have accumulated other markers that tend to go with a HOF career; he'll be up around 1800 runs, he'll be in the top 20 in PAs and top 30 in games played, top 60 in stolen bases, top 25 in doubles. He looks like he'll drop below 50+% of his games played in CF. That's a small ding. Funny. BBRef's page on Damon omits games at DH for his career.

If I were betting on it, if Damon gets 3,000 hits and Konerko gets 500 HRs and only one of them makes the Hall, it's got to be Damon, right?


Damon probably gets in around 2030, Blyleven-style, after year after year of defense-quantifying statheads scratching their heads about how any of the morons of the 1990s and 2000s could have thought Manny Ramirez was more valuable than Johnny Damon.
   38. The Long Arm of Rudy Law Posted: January 01, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4026743)
If I were betting on it, if Damon gets 3,000 hits and Konerko gets 500 HRs and only one of them makes the Hall, it's got to be Damon, right?


Konerko has gotten better the last few years. If this continues, he'll finish with infinity home runs, which should put him in the Hall on the first ballot five years after infinity.
   39. GotowarMissAgnes Posted: January 01, 2012 at 10:10 PM (#4026756)
(And if I'm right, you can probably expect Thornton (age 35) to be the next to go.)


Nope. Jason Fraser for a 20 year old and a 22 year old.
   40. valuearbitrageur Posted: January 01, 2012 at 10:25 PM (#4026761)
Quentin seems a poor fit for the Padres.

Or maybe that's just me


I don't think he's a terrible fit. They need power, he has a bunch, it's offset somewhat by his defensive shortcomings, but it still makes him a useful piece. If they are paying almost nothing for him, it makes sense whether he can net them any prospects later or not.
   41. Moeball Posted: January 03, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4028185)
Having been a Padres season tix holder for several yrs, I have seen several "surefire" power hitters die in Petco. Much was said in the media during construction that the short porch in the right field corner was designed specifically with Ryan Klesko in mind, and he hit a total of 13 HR there. Over the next 3 seasons combined.

Also, take a look at this:

BA .195 SLG .390 Only 10 RBI in 82 AB

Those are Barry Bonds' numbers in Petco, and everyone knows how he absolutely killed the Padres over the years, but he hated hitting in Petco, too. Yes, he had a .405 OBA there, but it's a pretty empty set of numbers overall.

Or this:

BA .258 OBA .351 SLG .536

Those numbers actually look pretty decent, especially for Petco. But those are pretty pedestrian numbers compared to Albert Pujols' career numbers, and over the last 3 years he's only been .225/.311/.450 at Petco so the park is starting to work its magic on him, too.

Trust me, even the greatest hitters in the game (especially power hitters) don't do well at Petco, and Quentin isn't one of the greatest hitters in the game. He's had some good years for the ChiSox but I'm expecting his experience in Petco will be very similar to Ryan Ludwick's.

Unless the Padres can trade him for something better down the road or at least some magic beans, this isn't going to be pretty.

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