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Sunday, July 20, 2014

Padres’ Offense May Go Down as Worst Ever

“Because of baseball’s long history, there is usually comfort in knowing that as bad as it gets for your team, there is almost always some other club that was worse. But the 2014 San Diego Padres might not have that consolation. At this point, their awful offense is about as bad as any in history, and there are still more than 60 games to be played.”

NattyBoh Posted: July 20, 2014 at 08:40 AM | 84 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, offense, padres, yankees

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   1. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 20, 2014 at 12:03 PM (#4754662)
And yet they are in 3rd place in the NL West, ahead of the Diamondbacks. Where did they get all that pitching, like that Ian Kennedy kid (121 innings, 2.97 FIP)?
   2. jdennis Posted: July 20, 2014 at 02:34 PM (#4754707)
Worst in the last 100 years, not ever
   3. McCoy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 02:44 PM (#4754709)
Well, if you're the worst in the last 100 years that probably makes the worst ever when you consider the context. I mean I expect teams to field bad players in 1898 or teams struggle to score because of the rules in say 1906 but in this day and age to be this bad is almost impossible.
   4. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 20, 2014 at 03:18 PM (#4754720)
I'd put the 2010 Mariners up against this Padres offense. Sure, they scored 3.13 runs per game, as opposed to the 2.98 the Padres are scoring, but that was with a DH and in a higher run scoring environment.
   5. bobm Posted: July 20, 2014 at 03:50 PM (#4754732)
FTFA:

In an attempt to smooth out cross-era comparisons, Baseball-Reference.com developed a statistic called Split O.P.S. Many fans of traditional statistics will roll their eyes at yet another metric, but Split O.P.S. uses two tried-and-true numbers — on-base and slugging percentages — and compares the team’s combination of those two figures with the rest of the major league clubs that season.

Each team is then assigned a number indicating how far the team is above or below the major league average. The baseline is 100, with anything above it indicating the team performed above average, and vice versa.

In the case of the 2014 Padres, comparing the team’s .607 O.P.S. to the major league average of .707 results in a Split O.P.S. of 72, or the second lowest a team has registered in the last 100 years. The worst full-season Split O.P.S. on record, a 71, came from the 1924 Boston Braves, a team that included Casey Stengel, who was an outlier on that club with a respectable .280 average.

Tied with the Padres at 72 are the 1963 Houston Colt .45s, an expansion team then in its second season with a roster that featured seven teenagers, including a couple of 19-year-olds named Rusty Staub and Joe Morgan.





   6. Buzzkill Posted: July 20, 2014 at 04:07 PM (#4754738)
Wow. Cabrera should run back to BALCO or wherever it was he found 60 points of OPS+ and a 100 points of OBP. Can you say Poster Boy?
   7. bobm Posted: July 20, 2014 at 04:14 PM (#4754740)
For single team seasons, From 1914 to 2014, Total (within Season Totals), sorted by least sOPS+ (among the lowest 1500 teams by season OPS)*

OPS_Rk Team Split Year  G   OPS sOPS+
    83 BSN Total 1924 154  .633    71
     2 HOU Total 1963 162  .584    72
    16 SDP Total 2014  97  .607    72
   409 BOS Total 1930 154  .677    72
     9 HOU Total 1964 162  .599    74
    74 PHI Total 1940 153  .631    74
   123 BSN Total 1938 153  .642    74
     1 TEX Total 1972 154  .581    75
    42 CIN Total 1933 153  .618    75
   142 PHI Total 1938 151  .645    75
    91 BAL Total 1955 156  .634    76
   102 SEA Total 2010 162  .637    76
   155 BRO Total 1927 154  .647    76
   200 BSN Total 1937 152  .653    76
   244 BSN Total 1922 154  .659    76
     3 PHA Total 1943 155  .592    77
     4 PHI Total 1942 151  .595    77
    10 NYM Total 1963 162  .600    77
    12 NYM Total 1965 164  .604    77
    62 MIA Total 2013 162  .627    77
    32 SDP Total 1969 162  .614    78
    90 WSH Total 1947 154  .634    78
   100 STL Total 1986 161  .636    78
   115 SEA Total 2011 162  .640    78
   179 BSN Total 1931 156  .650    78
   351 LAD Total 2003 162  .671    78
    39 TOR Total 1981 106  .617    79
   164 PHA Total 1954 156  .648    79
   169 OAK Total 1979 162  .648    79
   266 BSN Total 1939 152  .662    79
   397 DET Total 2003 162  .675    79
   564 CHW Total 1929 152  .689    79


* BB REF PI Team Batting Split Finder apparently lets one sort by unadjusted OPS but not by sOPS+. I manually sorted the list of the 1500 lowest OPS team-seasons by sOPS+. "OPS_Rk" is where that team-season ranks by unadjusted OPS. I found it to be an interesting demonstration of the impact of adjusting OPS.

ETA: I realize I could have run a second BB REF PI query (PI often limits one to 1500 results) to get the remaining 684 team-seasons. It doesn't change the answer.
   8. DavidFoss Posted: July 20, 2014 at 04:15 PM (#4754741)
The 1899 Spiders had a team OPS+ of 74 which is in the same ballpark as the teams discussed here (2014 Padres, 1963 Astros, 1924 Braves). I guess it was their 58 ERA+ which made them truly horrific.

What's the true measure for context-adjusted scoring? Something like (R/G)/ lg(R/G) * BPF / 100 ?
   9. stanmvp48 Posted: July 20, 2014 at 05:03 PM (#4754760)
When I divide the Padres OPS of .607 by the leage average of 707 I get .856. What am I missing?

Speaking of the 63 Colt 45s, and I witnessed much of this sweaty abomination as a kid, name the player who led the team with 10 home runs and 59 RBIS.
   10. cardsfanboy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 05:11 PM (#4754763)
When I divide the Padres OPS of .607 by the leage average of 707 I get .856. What am I missing?


OPS+ isn't figured that way, the components are computed separately. 100*[OBP/lg OBP+ Slg/lg Slg - 1] with the park factor applied.

in this case you get (.273)/(.312) + (.335)/(.385) for .875+.870-1 = .74513(or 75)...Not sure why the park factor isn't really figuring in more than a one point jump in ops+, was thinking that park would have been good for a 3-5 point jump.

   11. McCoy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 05:16 PM (#4754766)
There is only one player that I know of on the 1963 Colt .45s team and that was Joe Morgan.
   12. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 05:41 PM (#4754784)
Rusty Staub? Jim Wynn? Jerry Grote?
   13. stanmvp48 Posted: July 20, 2014 at 05:51 PM (#4754791)
no none of them.
   14. valuearbitrageur Posted: July 20, 2014 at 05:51 PM (#4754792)
As of June 1st of 2012, your Oakland Athletics were in 3rd place with a 22-30 record, and their hitters had a total line of .208/.287/.329/.615, and an OPS+ of 73. One of their big problems was giving 86 ABs to a failed 3b prospect hitting .141/.140/.235/.375 named Donaldson.

But fear not, by the end of 2012 they finished in first with 94 wins, and the hitters finished averaging a 99 OPS+ (I assume because they sent Donaldson down at end of May and never allowed him near a MLB plate again) and 2 years later are best team in baseball (I assume the GM must have been fired and replaced with someone good).

So the lesson to learn is, the season is not close to over, the record is not set, and many strange things will happen before it is.
   15. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4754795)
no none of them.


That was actually a response to McCoy, but I understand the confusion. I have no idea who led the team.
   16. Sweatpants Posted: July 20, 2014 at 06:02 PM (#4754797)
Roman Mejias?
   17. stanmvp48 Posted: July 20, 2014 at 06:06 PM (#4754800)
I believe he's a 24 the year before and was no longer on the team
   18. BDC Posted: July 20, 2014 at 06:19 PM (#4754806)
I guessed Bob Aspromonte, which is wrong but not by much.
   19. Astroenteritis Posted: July 20, 2014 at 06:28 PM (#4754810)
Rusty Staub? Jim Wynn? Jerry Grote?


Pete Runnels? Don McMahon?
   20. stanmvp48 Posted: July 20, 2014 at 07:23 PM (#4754832)
catcher John Bateman
   21. McCoy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 07:29 PM (#4754838)
Rusty Staub? Jim Wynn? Jerry Grote?

I know the names but like I said I only know the name of one player that was on the 1963 team. Well, now for the moment I know 7 other names but that is only for the moment.
   22. Steve Treder Posted: July 20, 2014 at 08:27 PM (#4754864)
It is Bateman, as named in #20.

Their primary second baseman, Ernie Fazio, hit .184. Their primary shortstop, Bob Lillis, hit .198. Their primary center fielder, Howie Goss, hit .209. Their primary third baseman, Bob Aspromonte, hit .214.

Bateman hit .210.
   23. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: July 20, 2014 at 08:41 PM (#4754867)
All I have to say in regards to how they stack up to the Mariners is -- let's seem 'em do it for a whole season.
   24. Steve Treder Posted: July 20, 2014 at 08:41 PM (#4754868)
Bateman drew 15 walks while striking out 103 times. He was the first catcher in MLB history to strike out 100+ times.
   25. Misirlou was a Buddhist prodigy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 08:47 PM (#4754870)
He was the first catcher in MLB history to strike out 100+ times.


So, the first was in 1963. The 10th was in 1977. There were 10 last year.
   26. bfan Posted: July 20, 2014 at 09:48 PM (#4754897)
and yet, that Houston team was not no-hit. Were they 1 hit, that season?
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: July 20, 2014 at 09:55 PM (#4754901)
and yet, that Houston team was not no-hit. Were they 1 hit, that season?


Yes. They were also No hit. Games with 2 or fewer hits, sorted by most hits.
Rk            Date  Tm Opp    Rslt R H
                                      
1       1963
-07-11 HOU PIT  L  0-3 0 2
2       1963
-07-03 HOU CIN  L  1-2 1 2
3       1963
-05-31 HOU MLN  W  3-2 3 2
4    1963
-05-11(2HOU CHC  W  1-0 1 2
5       1963
-04-23 HOU STL L  0-15 0 2
6       1963
-04-19 HOU LAD  L  0-2 0 2
                                      
7       1963
-08-04 HOU LAD  L  0-4 0 1
                                      
8       1963
-06-15 HOU SFG  L  0-1 0 0 
   28. AJMcCringleberry Posted: July 20, 2014 at 10:17 PM (#4754915)
Their primary second baseman, Ernie Fazio, hit .184. Their primary shortstop, Bob Lillis, hit .198. Their primary center fielder, Howie Goss, hit .209. Their primary third baseman, Bob Aspromonte, hit .214.

Bateman hit .210.


I'm pretty sure you made up all those names.
   29. Born1951 Posted: July 21, 2014 at 12:05 AM (#4754960)
I've been looking at teams with low% of all baserunners scored, and the 1963 Houston team is the second worst since 1950 at 26.0%, ahead of only the 1954 Orioles at 25.6%.
   30. Steve Treder Posted: July 21, 2014 at 12:31 AM (#4754965)
One of my favorite teams ever is the 1942 Phillies, who scored 394 runs in 151 games.

Yes, they did.
   31. It's a shame about Athletic Supporter Posted: July 21, 2014 at 01:04 AM (#4754969)
As of June 1st of 2012, your Oakland Athletics were in 3rd place with a 22-30 record, and their hitters had a total line of .208/.287/.329/.615, and an OPS+ of 73. One of their big problems was giving 86 ABs to a failed 3b prospect hitting .141/.140/.235/.375 named Donaldson.


Actually, Donaldson was a failed catching prospect, playing 3B for no apparent reason whatsoever. One of the strangest decisions of the Billy Beane era.
   32. cardsfanboy Posted: July 21, 2014 at 01:18 AM (#4754970)

Actually, Donaldson was a failed catching prospect, playing 3B for no apparent reason whatsoever. One of the strangest decisions of the Billy Beane era.


Yea, too bad it didn't work out. :)
   33. Walt Davis Posted: July 21, 2014 at 02:11 AM (#4754976)
Wow, as a team they have just 2.6 oWAR. That is hard to do.

The 24 Braves are credited with 2.3; the 63 Astros are way up at 7.6; the 64 team was at 7.3; the 1930 Red Sox were at 4.8; the 2010 Ms were at 7.5.

I don't know of any way to do a team oWAR search so I turn you over to the great bobm to see if he can turn up some other stinkers.

EDIT: 42 Phils at 7.4
   34. cardsfanboy Posted: July 21, 2014 at 02:24 AM (#4754978)
Wow, as a team they have just 2.6 oWAR. That is hard to do.


Miami, 2013... 0.5
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: July 21, 2014 at 02:29 AM (#4754979)
I don't know of any way to do a team oWAR search so I turn you over to the great bobm to see if he can turn up some other stinkers.


Agree.... there has to be a reasonable way to do that...(I'm working on making databases to help me with that, but I'm busy working so we are talking about a project that hopefully will be done by the playoffs---at the same time, I feel guilty since I'm going to be stealing bb-ref data. )
   36. KingKaufman Posted: July 21, 2014 at 02:41 AM (#4754981)
"Ernie Fazio, the light-hitting Houston infielder, switched from a 33-ounce to a 29-ounce, and he said, ‘After I strike out, a 29-ounce bat is a lot easier to carry back to the dugout.’” —Ernie Harwell
   37. Batman Posted: July 21, 2014 at 08:44 AM (#4755011)
One of my favorite teams ever is the 1942 Phillies, who scored 394 runs in 151 games.
Runs were rationed during the war. Without that team's patriotism, today's Phillies would be losing in German.
   38. AROM Posted: July 21, 2014 at 09:14 AM (#4755014)
He was the first catcher in MLB history to strike out 100+ times.


Congratulations. There are plenty of baseball trivia that I don't immediately know the answer to, but very few that blow my mind. This one did. I know strikeouts have exploded in recent years but I would have guessed someone like Bergen would have done that. Nope, the .170 career hitter had a career high of 50 strikeouts (372 PA, 1909).

Before 1960, only 60 players struck out 100+ times in a season. 47 of these guys led the league. The first time a player struck out 100+ times and did not lead his league was in 1938 (Dolph Camilli, second to Vince DiMaggio).
   39. Jeltzandini Posted: July 21, 2014 at 09:35 AM (#4755023)
Odds are the Padres regress to nonhistorical badness. They're only at game 98.

It is pretty impressive to have a league best RA/G while 12 games under .500.
   40. Coot Veal and Cot Deal taste like Old Bay Posted: July 21, 2014 at 09:57 AM (#4755031)
It is pretty impressive to have a league best RA/G while 12 games under .500.


reminiscent of the 1984 Pirates (75-87) who led the NL allowing just 3.5 runs per game vs. a league average of 4.06...
   41. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 21, 2014 at 10:32 AM (#4755063)
One of my favorite teams ever is the 1942 Phillies, who scored 394 runs in 151 games.

I recognize six names on that team. Two known only as managers (Bobby Bragan and Danny Murtaugh). Two were washed up (Lloyd Waner -- he played for the Phillies? -- and Chuck Klein, who had 1 hit that year). One I know because he was from Wilkes-Barre (Tommy Hughes). And Pinky May, the superstar of the bunch.
   42. AROM Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:10 AM (#4755097)
Klein played 2 more years after that, and ended up 4 for 41 over the last 3 years of his career. Was he a coach at the time? It seems like a lot of players back then would be primarily a coach, but available for pinch hitting or emergency play if the roster got banged up.
   43. OCF Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:15 AM (#4755107)
I see the 2003 Dodgers on bobm's list in post 7. That was a team that would once in a while play its starting catcher (LoDuca) at 1B or LF (eek) just to get the backup catcher into the game to improve the offense. On the other hand, that team had great pitching, even if the attempt to convince anyone in L.A. that the pitching was every bit as good as the Koufax/Drysdale years would get you scoffed at.
   44. just plain joe Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:19 AM (#4755112)
I recognize six names on that team. Two known only as managers (Bobby Bragan and Danny Murtaugh). Two were washed up (Lloyd Waner -- he played for the Phillies? -- and Chuck Klein, who had 1 hit that year). One I know because he was from Wilkes-Barre (Tommy Hughes). And Pinky May, the superstar of the bunch.


Danny Litwhiler, who was the everyday left fielder, had a solid major league career (over 3800 PA's and a 119 OPS+). He was later the baseball coach at Florida State and at Michigan State.
   45. BDC Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:23 AM (#4755119)
Nick Etten of the '42 Phillies was an interesting player. Stuck in the high minors at the age of 26, and then he got his break to play on the dismal Phillies, and then in 1943 he was the starting first baseman for the World Champion Yankees. Kind of a two-true outcome guy, he would win both the HR and BB titles in 1944, but almost never struck out. Led the AL in RBI in 1945.

Ron Northey and Danny Litwhiler were NL journeymen with reasonably long careers. Oddly enough, like Etten, they were pretty good hitters. Litwhiler I remember as baseball coach at Michigan State when I was a student there.
   46. Steve Treder Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:47 AM (#4755148)
Was he a coach at the time? It seems like a lot of players back then would be primarily a coach, but available for pinch hitting or emergency play if the roster got banged up.

Yes, that's exactly what it was.

It must have been a somewhat nightmarish experience for Klein, who'd found hitting to be hilariously easy a decade or less earlier, but who now was just embarrassingly bad. One imagines how effed up his knees must have been.
   47. Ron J2 Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:47 AM (#4755149)
#42 I remember that the Phillies had to press one of their coaches into action after a bunch of catcher injuries back when I was first starting to follow the game seriously. Early 70s.
   48. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:53 AM (#4755161)
I remember that the Phillies had to press one of their coaches into action after a bunch of catcher injuries back when I was first starting to follow the game seriously. Early 70s.

Doc Edwards

Maybe he should have suited up when he was managing the 1988-89 Indians. Could he have been worse than Andy Allanson?
   49. bfan Posted: July 21, 2014 at 01:34 PM (#4755246)
48 comments and maybe 2 on the topic of the article? Since TFA deals in raw numbers, and not park-adjusted, I assume the main problem is the stadium needs to be fixed (yes; fixed). We all soil ourselves about how distorted Coors field is; let's have an uproar for whatever is causing a boat-load of yawner, 2-1 games. Reduce the foul ground tremendously, if that area is large; bring in the fences with a conventional chain-link fence, if that is the problem; better the hitters background in CF, if that is not good enough; install new lights; do something.

Next, I would can the hitting coach. I would do that every year my team finished 29th or 30th in any major category in MLB stats, but we do not even have to go there, with this team. When your the worst at something in 100 years of baseball, something has to change, and no amount of nuanced and thoughtful argument can get one to the hitting coach has done his job at an acceptable level. This line-up has good hitters; hitters that have hit well, or younger hitters that by all accounts have the physical tools to hit MLB pitching. Headly; Smith; Alonso; Grandal; Cabrera; Venable; Quentin. That is not a group of nobodies that were never going to amount to anything (and as the article says, these SD players are not kids with no MLB experience, taking their lumps this year, before they are ready).
   50. alilisd Posted: July 21, 2014 at 02:55 PM (#4755307)
Reduce the foul ground tremendously, if that area is large; bring in the fences with a conventional chain-link fence, if that is the problem; better the hitters background in CF, if that is not good enough; install new lights; do something


Foul ground is not the issue. The fences have been brought in at least twice. The batter's eye has been worked on repeatedly. Must be the lights. :-)
   51. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 03:04 PM (#4755320)
Headly; Smith; Alonso; Grandal; Cabrera; Venable; Quentin.

But all these guys have hit before in this same park. 2013: Quentin 144 OPS+, Venable 125, Headley 115, Grandal 101, Cabrera 112, Alonso 105. 2012: Quentin 146, Venable 115, Headley 145, Grandal 143, Alonso 110.

The park didn't suddenly change. All these guys just started to suck.

Except Smith, who became a monster.
   52. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 03:34 PM (#4755328)
I just looked at the Padres' all-time HR leaders, wow, #1 at 168 HRs, and #10 with 84 total HRs as a Padre. Only seven players have hit 87 or more HRs as a member of the Padres. I would've never guessed the guy in the #1 spot. Funny that Greg Vaughn is still 15th all-time as a Padre in just over 2 seasons.

By comparison (similar 1969-2014 window), #1 Brewers all-time is 251 HRs, and #10 is 160 HRs (both HOFers).
   53. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 03:38 PM (#4755329)
I would've never guessed the guy in the #1 spot.


And I would've gotten it right ... except your saying that made me think I had to be wrong.

Damn you.
   54. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 21, 2014 at 03:45 PM (#4755336)
The one thing Nate Colbert is known for is leading the Padres in stuff. After learning about him, familiarize yourself with Steve Rogers, Alvin Davis and Mike Caldwell.

I had no idea Adrian Gonzalez got so close to his record! Oh well.
   55. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: July 21, 2014 at 03:46 PM (#4755337)
Nate Colbert?

edit: I posted this before I saw #54 so...I am a genius.
   56. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 03:53 PM (#4755340)
I had no idea Adrian Gonzalez got so close to his record! Oh well.


Thank god SD traded him, because it would've been really creepy to see Nate Colbert showing up at every game in hopes that he wouldn't homer, a la weirdo Calvin Murphy when whoever it was was threatening his free-throw record, or whatever it was.

Assuming that that really happened, & my memory isn't playing tricks on me.
   57. AROM Posted: July 21, 2014 at 03:58 PM (#4755341)
The park didn't suddenly change. All these guys just started to suck.


This year's team can't use the park as an excuse. They are actually hitting slightly worse on the road.
   58. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 21, 2014 at 04:04 PM (#4755343)
Since TFA deals in raw numbers, and not park-adjusted, I assume the main problem is the stadium needs to be fixed (yes; fixed).


The Pads are averaging 3.09 runs per game at PETCO, and 2.82 per game on the road. They just suck.
   59. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 21, 2014 at 04:10 PM (#4755345)
in this case you get (.273)/(.312) + (.335)/(.385) for .875+.870-1 = .74513(or 75)...Not sure why the park factor isn't really figuring in more than a one point jump in ops+, was thinking that park would have been good for a 3-5 point jump.


Park Factor is already baked in to the .310/.3874 denominators (not .312/.385)
just like it's already baked into the Rockies' .337/.422 denominators and Pirates .316/.393 denominators

The league is hitting .312/.385- but that's not the denominator being used for OPS+
what it used is park adjusted NON-PITCHER hitting OBP/SLG.

In the case of Petco, the park factor basically offsets the removal of pitcher hitting...




   60. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: July 21, 2014 at 04:23 PM (#4755349)
Their primary third baseman, Bob Aspromonte, hit .214.
I'm pretty sure you made up all those names.

Nope, Aspromonte was known as Aspro the Astro.
   61. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 05:06 PM (#4755363)
And had a brother, Ken, a/k/a ... uh ... well, actually, none of Aspro the Red Sock/Senator/Indian/Angel/Brave/Cub/Dragon/Whale really has a ring to it.

   62. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 05:34 PM (#4755376)
The one thing Nate Colbert is known for is leading the Padres in stuff. After learning about him, familiarize yourself with Steve Rogers, Alvin Davis and Mike Caldwell.


I think you meant to say Jim Slaton.
   63. alilisd Posted: July 21, 2014 at 05:44 PM (#4755380)
The park didn't suddenly change. All these guys just started to suck.


And that's the bizarre thing. There's really no good reason that many guys should so far underperform expectations within the same season. I blame it on the Curse of the Garvey!
   64. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 21, 2014 at 06:10 PM (#4755388)
The park didn't suddenly change. All these guys just started to suck.


Venable from 125 to 63
Alonso from 105 to 70
Gyorko from 112 to 39
Cabrera from 112 to 58
Headley from 115 to 88
Denorfia from 110 to 77

and except for Cabrera's 112 in 2013 it's not like they were playing over their heads in 2013
Venable was at 111 for his career entering 2014
Alonso was at 110
Headley 115
Denorfia 110

   65. Walt Davis Posted: July 21, 2014 at 06:33 PM (#4755402)
And the park is apparently not so extreme these days. Multi-year park factor of 93, single year of 96. Dodgers Stadium was posting numbers like that throughout the late 90s and early 00s and throughout the 60s. The Astrodome of the 80s was that bad.

Even with the humidor, Coors has a PF around 115, down from about 125 in its heyday. The pitching equivalent of Coors would have to be on Jupiter.
   66. stanmvp48 Posted: July 21, 2014 at 06:34 PM (#4755403)
"Except Smith, who became a monster."

By the way, did anyone at all agree that his walk off "single" yesterday was scored correctly?
   67. Moeball Posted: July 21, 2014 at 07:53 PM (#4755428)
By the way, did anyone at all agree that his walk off "single" yesterday was scored correctly?


I was there - 2 outs and a runner on third in the bottom of the 9th, score tied 1-1. Seth hit a little dribbler to the pitcher. Should have easily been the third out of the inning and we should have been headed for extra innings. But the pitcher fell down trying to field it and by the time he finally had a handle on it and tried to throw to first everyone was safe and the game was over. That Smith was credited with a single on that play is a joke, it was an E-1 all the way, but our idiot official scorer won't call anything an error unless a fielder kicks the ball 5 times on a play. Apparently the pitcher only bobbled it twice and that wasn't enough.

But it ended the game in the Padres favor and sent us all home as winners so I'll take it!
   68. Moeball Posted: July 21, 2014 at 08:04 PM (#4755437)
Wow. Cabrera should run back to BALCO or wherever it was he found 60 points of OPS+ and a 100 points of OBP. Can you say Poster Boy?


Actually, just the opposite. Everth Cabrera was busted in the Biogenesis scandal which broke in spring of last year. The records seized by MLB were related to purchases/usage of steroids related to 2012 and earlier. In 2012 Everth Cabrera hit a whopping 2 HRs (that's right, two more than a dead guy)and had an OPS+ of 85. That was when he was definitely on the sauce. If anything, he should have gotten his money back because whatever he took wasn't enhancing his performance.

Last year he had a pretty good season with a 112 OPS+; by all accounts he was clean (although as has been pointed out in a zillion other threads here, we really have no way of knowing for certain that a player is clean even if he's passing all the tests). He doubled his power output, too, from 2 HRs all the way up to 4!
   69. bobm Posted: July 21, 2014 at 08:13 PM (#4755442)
2004 Dbacks = 0.5 oWAR

ETA:

1993 Marlins = 0.0 oWAR
1986 White Sox = 2.2 oWAR
1983 Mariners = 0.0 oWAR
1976 Expos = 1.5 oWAR
1954 and 1956 Athletics = 3.2 oWAR
1950 Browns = 2.2 oWAR
1948 Senators = 2.4 oWAR
1943 Athletics = 1.0 oWAR
1927 Dodgers = 0.8 oWAR
1922 Braves = 1.3 oWAR
   70. bobm Posted: July 21, 2014 at 08:29 PM (#4755447)
1920 Athletics = -0.8 oWAR
1909 Boston Doves (NL) = 0.9 oWAR
1901 Boston Beaneaters (NL) = 1.1 oWAR
   71. bobm Posted: July 21, 2014 at 08:52 PM (#4755453)
Greatest team-season oWAR

year  tm oWAR
1931 NYY 46.0
1927 NYY 43.8
1930 NYY 43.1
1976 CIN 41.9
1932 NYY 40.1
2007 NYY 40.0
2001 SEA 39.9
1953 BRO 39.3
1933 NYY 38.8
1914 PHA 38.6


   72. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 09:06 PM (#4755468)

I'd put the 2010 Mariners up against this Padres offense. Sure, they scored 3.13 runs per game, as opposed to the 2.98 the Padres are scoring, but that was with a DH and in a higher run scoring environment.

Yeah, you can't really compare team OPS+ of teams with the DH to those without it. OPS+ is calculated against a league average that excludes pitchers. I would argue that the Padres' 75 OPS+ (76 as of today) in an NL where the average team is at 94, is better than the 2010 Mariners OPS+ of 79 in an AL where the average was 100.

Sure enough, the total OPS+ of Padres non-pitchers is 81, while the OPS+ of 2010 Mariners' non-pitchers in 2010 was 80.
   73. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 21, 2014 at 09:15 PM (#4755475)
Sure enough, the total OPS+ of Padres non-pitchers is 81, while the OPS+ of 2010 Mariners' non-pitchers in 2010 was 80.

People, people. Can't we just agree they both suck eggs?
   74. What's the realistic upside, RMc? Posted: July 21, 2014 at 09:46 PM (#4755499)
Somewhere, Enzo Hernandez is laughing.
   75. alilisd Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:50 PM (#4755546)
Number eleven!... Enzo Hernandez!

Walt, I think, no data, the park is playing a bit more fairly than it has. The big move of the right field fence last year does seem to have made an impact.
   76. Howie Menckel Posted: July 21, 2014 at 11:55 PM (#4755547)

actually it was "number 11... ENNNNNN-ZO!...... Her-NAN-dez!" on the PA

almost made you think he might get on base, lol
   77. Steve Treder Posted: July 22, 2014 at 12:33 AM (#4755554)
actually it was "number 11... ENNNNNN-ZO!...... Her-NAN-dez!" on the PA

That, only exaggerated a million times. I don't know who the Padres PA guy was in those years, but it was clear that he considered restraint a sin.
   78. Born1951 Posted: July 22, 2014 at 01:10 AM (#4755557)
[37]
Runs were rationed during the war. Without that team's patriotism, today's Phillies would be losing in German.

Good one!
   79. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 22, 2014 at 01:36 AM (#4755560)
My dad used to say he got the runs when stationed in the Pacific. Now i know where they came from.
   80. alilisd Posted: July 23, 2014 at 12:29 PM (#4756270)
actually it was "number 11... ENNNNNN-ZO!...... Her-NAN-dez!" on the PA


Yes, much better!
   81. Ron J2 Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:15 PM (#4756298)
#63 I was a young Oriole fan in 1972. Sometimes a whole pile of guys have really bad seasons.

Team OPS+ went from 112 to 89 and it looked even worse because offensive levels dropped in 1972. Not a single returning regular had a good year by their standards in 1972
   82. Ron J2 Posted: July 23, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4756300)
#76 It would take around 2 minutes for the PA announcer in Montreal to say John Boccabella.
   83. alilisd Posted: July 23, 2014 at 02:47 PM (#4756351)
Sometimes a whole pile of guys have really bad seasons.


No way, Man! It's the Curse of the Garvey!
   84. Ron J2 Posted: July 23, 2014 at 03:32 PM (#4756395)
#83 And 1972 was explained as payment for trading Frank Robinson.

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