Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Panas: Walk-off Wins and Momentum

Well…there sorta goes McCarver’s theory about Pedroia’s catch changing future geomagnetic jerk patterns.

After Sunday night’s improbable Red Sox comeback, many Red Sox and Tigers fans claimed that the momentum was now on the Red Sox side.  It’s certainly true that it’s better for the Red Sox to be tied 1-1 in the series than down 2-0, but does the walk-off win make them more likely to win game three on Tuesday?

It is widely believed that a walk-off win or sudden victory creates a boost for a team that carries over to the next game more often than not. I wanted to see if this was true, so I went to the retrosheet database and found all walk-off wins between 1995 and 2012. There were 3,769 of these sudden victories during the period which comes out to about seven per team for a season. My goal was to see if walk off winners had a tendency win the next game after their walk offs.

Twenty-eight walk offs fell out of the sample because they occurred in the final game of the season and thus were not followed by another regular season game. That gave me 3,741 games with which to work. I discovered that teams won 52.6% of the games immediately following walk off wins. That’s more than 50% so at first glance it seems that there is a bit of a tendency for teams to win games following walk offs.

Before jumping to conclusions though, there are a couple of important factors to consider. First, walk off wins only happen at home so chances are (85% of the time to be exact) that the next game would also be at home. Since teams win 53.9% of their home games, you would expect them to have a good winning percentage in games after walk offs even without a carryover effect. Also, teams with good winning percentages tend to have more walk off wins. For both of these reasons, one would expect a win the next game after a walk off more than 50% of the time even if walk-off wins had no influence on future games.

...Based on these analyses, the Tigers heart-breaking loss should not affect their performance in game three any more than any other result. Tigers manager Jim Leyland’s theory is that “Momentum is only as good as the next game’s starting pitcher”.  If that’s the case, then the Tigers should be in a favorable position with red hot Justin Verlander facing Red Sox right hander John Lackey on Tuesday.

Repoz Posted: October 15, 2013 at 05:29 AM | 1 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history, red sox, sabermetrics, tigers

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. fra paolo Posted: October 15, 2013 at 09:20 AM (#4572746)
Well, I hope so. Go Tigers!

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
1k5v3L
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOT: NBC.news: Valve isn’t making one gaming console, but multiple ‘Steam machines’
(1368 - 3:46pm, Dec 20)
Last: Poster Nutbag

NewsblogOT: Politics - December 2014: Baseball & Politics Collide in New Thriller
(5091 - 3:43pm, Dec 20)
Last: The Id of SugarBear Blanks

NewsblogRuben Amaro Jr. says it would be best if Phillies move on from Ryan Howard
(25 - 3:41pm, Dec 20)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)

NewsblogThe Yankees’ plan in case A-Rod can’t play at all
(3 - 3:40pm, Dec 20)
Last: gehrig97

NewsblogGiants acquire McGehee to fill third-base spot
(2 - 3:28pm, Dec 20)
Last: DanO

NewsblogTrading Justin Upton means the Braves are in full rebuilding mode | Mark Bradley blog
(88 - 3:19pm, Dec 20)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogThe 2015 HOF Ballot Collecting Gizmo!
(134 - 3:15pm, Dec 20)
Last: bigglou115

NewsblogAmazin' Avenue - Cohen: Mets and Rockies discussing Troy Tulowitzki deal with Noah Syndergaard as the centerpiece
(47 - 3:06pm, Dec 20)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogThe right — and wrong — way for Mets to get Tulowitzki | New York Post
(9 - 3:01pm, Dec 20)
Last: Walt Davis

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - December 2014
(754 - 2:52pm, Dec 20)
Last: Famous Original Joe C

NewsblogThe 4 surprisingly quiet teams of the MLB offseason
(37 - 2:38pm, Dec 20)
Last: Mirabelli Dictu (Chris McClinch)

NewsblogOT - College Football Bowl Spectacular (December 2014 - January 2015)
(102 - 2:37pm, Dec 20)
Last: BDC

NewsblogOT: Soccer December 2014
(318 - 2:03pm, Dec 20)
Last: frannyzoo

Hall of Merit2015 Hall of Merit Ballot Discussion
(103 - 2:00pm, Dec 20)
Last: Howie Menckel

NewsblogZuckerman - Trea Turner Named Now, Plays Later
(6 - 1:51pm, Dec 20)
Last: Justin T steals bases with his bat

Page rendered in 0.1580 seconds
48 querie(s) executed