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Philly should be on the line to KC and see just how desperate they are. They also should watch out as Toronto might just try to slip in and fleece them.
Thinking out loud: Who are the other possible matches? You'd have to get a team that is not contending next season and that has a frontline starter who is not going to be a building block for the next few seasons. The Marlins already dumped Johnson. Does James McDonald on the Pirates fit the description? I know the Braves were shopping Hanson but he's regressed a bit.
Delgado/ jurrjens for Myers?
edit: OR even Lester, not 'and'.
Man, I'd love if the Tigers sent KC Scherzer for Wil Myers, but that will never happen.
The Royals lost 90 games last year. They need to win 20 more games before they're in contention -- 200 runs. The team OPS+ and ERA+ were both 96. The starting right fielder had an OPS+ of 81.
They don't need to be screwing around trying to get production from particular spots. They need as many runs as they can get, as cheaply as possible. They should be completely indifferent about whether they get those runs on offense, defense, or pitching.
Right now, the Royals are basically set at C, 1B, SS, 3B, LF, and DH, in the sense that they can't realistically upgrade the position on their current budget. If Lorenzo Cain is healthy, add CF to that list. That leaves RF (Francouer) and 2B (Getz) as positions that can be improved on a budget. It's just insane to let go of a young right fielder who can hit for average and power.
When's the next time the Royals are going to have a chance at a free agent outfielder as good as Myers projects to become?
-- MWE
He hit .314 with 37 home runs and slugged .600 between Double-A and Triple-A, and while it would take a big spring for him to crack the Royals' opening-day roster, Kansas City expects his arrival by May at latest – if he's still with the team.
How hard is it to crack that roster?
If you're a small market club, you do *not* trade a Wil Myers. His upside is far, far too high and his chances of getting there much too realistic to possibly justify moving him unless you're getting back a genuine ace who is youngish and still under team control at a reasonable price.
DMGM has to know this, and he's tended to his farm way too carefully to ruin the harvest now.
Wright definitely has value, of course.
It remains to be seen if the bump in K rate will be sustainable, but it wasn't an ability that he only showed at one point in the season. The Mets aren't in a position for that to matter very much-- I don't think the team will be competitive in 2013 or 2014. They simply don't have the talent on-hand or the money to spend to get it. The rotation with RA looks excellent, but they won't be able to score enough runs for it to matter.
This is a joke, right? A 37 year old knuckleballer who's signed for one year for a 21 year old AAA prospect who's cost controlled for six seasons? And you want a bonus, besides?
This is why you should never discuss hypothetical trades on the internet. The conversation quickly degenerates into unrealistic wish fulfillment on all sides.
Whenever people claim that Deal X could never happen, it's worth bearing mind that the Mets got Zach Wheeler for a half-season of Carlos Beltran. GMs do strange things sometimes. I wouldn't do that deal as the Royals-- if I'm the Royals I hold onto Myers for dear life, unless someone blows me away.
Edit: The Royals, for all of their talent, don't look particularly close to contending to me. They'd be banking on Hosmer and Moustakas both taking huge steps forward after miserable seasons, young pitching emerging, and Jeff Francouer not being himself again. Also, why are people excited about Lorenzo Cain?
How hard is it to change the CBA rules on arb eligibility? :-) Sheesh, the Royals didn't even give him a Sept cup of coffee last year.
Myers strikes me as one of the less sure-fire top prospects I've seen.
I'm curious what this is based on. The K-rate's a little high but not scary; good BA, good walk rate, good ISO; he's still playing plenty of CF (and stealing a handful of bases) so I assume he has the speed to project as at least average in RF. His age 20 season was a bit of a disaster but he bounced back completely last year. What's the warning sign?
I'd trade Hosmer before Myers, but unless you're putting together a package for someone like Felix Hernandez or something, I'd rather see if they can have the great offense that they thought they'd get out of Hosmer, Moose, and Myers.
Other than Myers, though, I'm all for trading prospects for established starters, not only pitchers but 2B and possibly CF.
Sorry about getting on your case earlier. Dickey might even be an interesting trade target for the Royals, but putting Myers into the discussion is simply absurd. Historically, the #1-5 prospects put up something like 10 WAR while they're under control of the team. At a free agent cost of $5 million per WAR, that's about $50 million, less the cost of their salary. Call it $30 million for the sake of argument.
The Mets would be putting up one year of R.A. Dickey, a 38 year old who throws a pitch that's historically difficult to control. He's scheduled to make $5 million in 2013, the only year the Mets control. Be generous, and figure he's worth $15 million on a one year contract. So you have the Mets offering something worth about $10 million, in return for something worth two or three times that much. That's not really close enough to be interesting.
I would be on board with this. Aside from Myers, the Royals are starting to get to a point where the talent in the pipeline doesn't necessarily match up with the needs on the field.
If the perfect deal came around, I wouldn't even be opposed to trading Myers. But what would a deal like that even look like? How many contracts out there have $20-30 million of potential excess value? How many of those line up with a position of need for the Royals, and why would those guys even be available? I think the only way to get fair value for Myers is to play him.
K rate?
That, and KC seems really reluctant to put him in the lineup, for whatever reason. It makes me suspicious that they know something that the rest of MLB hasn't figured out yet, and that they want to pump and dump him.
This is not generous. At $5 mil/WAR, Dickey was worth $23 mil last season. Plus, I think you have to assume that if you don't sign Dickey, you would make him a qualifying offer, and you would get the draft picks if you don't sign him. Myers may be too valuable to give up for Dickey, but not dramatically so. On the other hand, the Mets could offer Jon Niese for Myers, which I actually think is too much too give up from the Mets' perspective.
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
HAHAHAHAHA!
hee!
Oh, wait, you were serious?
A proven, above-average cost-controlled major league lefthanded starter for a "prospect" who struck out 140 times in AA and AAA last year - this is the idea you're laughing at - from the perspective of the team with the "prospect"? I thought this was supposed to be a thinking fan's site.
According to the article, trading Myers for a starter is the Royals' idea, not an idea invented by Mets fans. Perhaps you can think of another starter who might be available that is better than Dickey or Niese.
So did I, and then I saw someone claim (apparently with a straight face) that a straight-up Niese-for-Myers deal would be tilted in the Royals' favor. And then you defended him!
I mean, that's some Danks-for-Lopez #### right there.
What would the A's fans feel good about giving for Myers?
What about the Rays?
What about the D'Backs?
EDIT: Or Vlad, would the Pirates give one of their young arms+ for Myers, or are they more concerned with finding arms (I assumed the latter).
I have an idea. Why don't you ask someone other than a Mets fan whether that's a fair deal or not?
Niese has one year as a middle of the rotation starter, certainly not a top of the rotation starter.
The implication of the intent is that Myers would be available for a youngish or cost controlled top of the rotation starter. Disqualifying Dickey.
Your not even in the ball park, son.
I wondered about that, but I think they're committed to Cole and Taillon and Heredia over the long haul. If they weren't willing to deal any of them for Headley last year, I don't think they'd deal them for Myers, either.
If the Royals were willing to go with a second-tier arm? Sure, they'd better be in on that. But I'd be shocked if KC couldn't get a better offer from someone else.
Plus, the Pirates are pretty set in the OF right now with McCutchen and Marte and Snider. If they were going to deal one of their big chips, I think it'd be for a bigger need, like a top shortstop or catcher.
Then again, I remember the halcyon days of Domonic Brown, #1 prospect.
Weighing the 2 points, I have to agree with #37.
I'm sure you mean "you're," which is a contraction of "you are."
His peripherals have been very consistent, but this is the first year he wasn't bitten by the BABIP fairy. A year ago, those of you who like to antagonize us were trying to claim there was something about Neise that made him especially delicious to the fairy.
Yeah, that's what I figured. It's tough to align value and needs, hence the short list above.
They always have the option of not making any deal at all if they don't get any decent offers. This isn't a "no reserve" auction.
Jon Niese WAR (career): 3.1
Obviously defense counts, too, but the disappointing version of Myers could easily be equal to Niese so far. The optimistic projection of Myers seems clearly far beyond the optimistic projection of Niese. The only reason to imagine them equivalent is to believe you have something close to certainty about where each one will fall in their projections. If you know Myers will be toward the pessimistic end and Niese at the optimistic end, then you can make a good case for the trade. In this world, though, it doesn't work. There's a case to be made for trading Myers for an established strong but not superlative level--for someone who pitched like Niese 2012 for 3-4 years--but there's about as much uncertainty around Niese as there is around Myers, without the corresponding upside.
Well, if they don't, I'm sure they'll be blowing up Sandy's phone with calls about Young Paul Maholm.
Niese is a perfectly decent starter, but he's just not the sort of guy you give up a consensus top-five hitting prospect to get.
The pessimistic projection of Myers is a guy who put up less than 1 WAR a year. Niese so far has bettered that, plus he just had his best season, plus if you use component numbers he's a guy worth over 2.5 WAR a year.
Now if Myers succeeds, he'll be much better than that, but I think the odds of him hitting his optimistic projection are somewhat lower than the odds that Niese does.
1. He has averaged 2.33 WAR over the past 3 seasons and 2.55 WAR over the past 2 seasons (fangraphs).
2. The Mets control his rights for the next 4 years at total cost of $24 mil.
3. The Mets have a $10 mil team option in 2017 and an $11 mil team option in 2018.
4. He just turned 26.
In short, you have a cost controlled left-handed starting pitcher for the next six seasons who is at least a No. 3 starter. Assuming the $5 mil/WAR figure that was raised previously and assuming he continues to perform as he has performed (which takes into account his first full season which was a fair bit worse than his last two seasons), his contract gives the team approximately $25 mil in excess value over the next six seasons (and the vast majority of that value is over the next 3 seasons where there is less projection involved). While, there is always risk of performance degradation, there is always the chance of improvement for a 26 year old pitcher - it's not as it Niese lacks upside. And unlike Myers, there is no risk of issues in transition from the minor leagues to the major leagues. Niese is a significant asset. Maybe I do a Niese/Myers deal from the Mets perspective, and maybe I don't. But, based on the numbers, I fail to see how that kind of offer is in any way laughable.
Is Angelos really going to let the Orioles trade away Moustakas for anything but another Greek star?
He was 21 and also dominated AA...and A+, and A before that. He's not a PCL creation.
I agree that he's a good prospect. I just don't think he's elite. He seems like the kind of guy who will put up 120-130 OPS+ while providing ok defense in RF or LF. An above-average player, but not a superstar.
Well, his average FB is only 90-91 MPH. It wouldn't be shocking for him to get hit a little harder than average.
I doubt his .272 BABIP this season is sustainable either.
That's average or above average for a lefty, and I don't believe lefties typically have a higher BABIP than righties. Secondly if he was hittable you'd expect to see that in his strikeout rate. Hittable pitchers don't strike out 8 guys per 9. The only guys who deserve really high BABIPs are bad pitchers (the converse is not true as there are plenty of mediocre K:BB pitchers who can sustain really low BABIPs).
and Glendon Rusch.
Some parallel universe Parker who hasn't had TJ? Absolutely. Otherwise, I think the checkered injury history is probably too much of an impediment.
But yeah, generally speaking, some young flamethrower with a whole lot of team control ahead of him should be just about the right price for Myers.
Or perhaps, like any rational market participant, they have a price they want to get and they will look for it. Myers isn't going to land Felix or Kershaw, but the truth is that they might be able to do better than Parker.
Remember that the downside to keeping Myers is seeing how the top position prospect heading into next season develops. That's not a terrible downside at all, and frankly, I'd keep Myers if I were the Royals.
The Rays do make some sense. Matt Moore would be worth looking at, but I pray they're not dazzled by Hellickson's shiny ERA.
Not by himself, but as the centerpiece of a multi-player deal? I think that's plausible.*
*Assuming that teams are willing to deal that type of pitcher to begin with, of course.
The issue isn't just "that type of pitcher". It's that type of pitcher who has multiple years remaining of team control at a reasonable value. And those types of pitchers are very rarely available. If the Royals want a pitching prospect with front of the rotation potential for Myers, I'm sure they can get that. If they want an actual front of the rotation starter under team control for multiple years at a market rate (Cliff Lee), they can probably get that. If they want an actual front of the rotation starter at an under market rate who isn't under team control for multiple years (Dickey), they can get that. What they can't get is an actual front of the rotation starter who is under team control for multiple years at an under market rate.
Nobody has raised any points that make me think the argument I posed in #62 is invalid. I think the issues people have with Niese are primarily related to the facts that (a) he lacks a top prospect pedigree and (b) the shape of his projected value is not terribly exciting.
No, he's a different grump.
That's probably his middle of the road projection, with upside for more and downside for less. Basically, a right-handed Jay Bruce.
I think the last part is very much up for debate, and of course the injury history as noted. His FIP last year resembled his ERA, but A) That's not park adjusted, and B) even in Oakland, I think we should see at least another year of home run supression that excellent before assuming a baseline. It's an interesting fake trade.
I'm 99% convinced that when Moore trades Myers it will be for FAR less than what most here deem remotely reasonable. let alone equal value/
I'm 99% convinced that when Moore trades Myers it will be for FAR less than what most here deem remotely reasonable. let alone equal value/
Quite possible, but that would be a comment on the GM ability of Moore, not the value of Myers.
Myers looks like a potential future stud, but there is always that risk that he's a Jason Kubel type as mentioned above. Dickey comes with his own set of risks. As a Mets fan I'd do this deal, I'm not sure why the non-Mets fans in this thread think Dickey-Myers is so outlandish. He's the reigning Cy Young award winner and he's been excellent for 2.5 years.
As far as Niese goes, I agree with billyshears. Niese's xFIP over the last three years has been 3.80, 3.28 and 3.64. It's not as if he has just burst onto the scene. He probably has a floor as a 2.5 to 3 WAR pitcher, and he's got a chance to someday exceed that. I probably don't take Niese for Myers if I am KC, but it's not preposterous.
I think that your estimate of Niese's projected future value is excessively optimistic. In particular, I don't see him as having much (if any) remaining upside potential to balance out the downside risk of assuming positive contributions from a pitcher in every year of a contract of that length.
He's also been worth between 9.4 (B-R) and 13.7 (Fangraphs) WAR over the last five years, at a cost of $9,059,166. Using the lower of the two WAR figures and billy's value of $5M per marginal win, that's a total surplus value of just under $38M to date, with one of his six original years of team control still remaining.
If Myers becomes a Bruce-like player, trading him for Niese would be a bad idea, according to the numbers.
I feel it is incumbent upon me to point out that by either B-R or Fangraphs numbers, Niese has had exactly one season of 2.5 or more WAR.
I feel it is incumbent upon me to point out that by either B-R or Fangraphs numbers, Niese has had exactly one season of 2.5 or more WAR.
And every pitcher's floor is "never throws another pitch".
Um, how? I'm taking the average of his last three seasons to get a 2.33 WAR/season figure. That both overweights his 1.9 WAR rookie season and completely ignores any upside a pitcher who just finished his age 25 season might have. At 2.33 WAR/season, even if you ignore the the last 2 team options in the contract, Niese would return approximately $23 mil in excess value over 4 years, and $47 mil in total value over 4 years.
I've assumed away all upside in my calculations. As far as downside risk, I grant that I'm assuming health and no performance degradation beneath a baseline that has been set artificially low. I think that is fair given that there are no red flags on either end. The only downside risk is inherent in Niese being a pitcher, and if the Royals don't want to take those risks, they shouldn't trade hitting for pitching.
I took the $5 mil/win figure from another poster. I also don't know how long that figure has applied - you can't really use it retrospectively.
I didn't say anything about Niese. I agree that Niese for Myers doesn't work, but Niese + 1-2 good prospects (I don't know who the Mets have) is in the ballpark. Parker for Myers seems fair.
I think it's fair to use that figure here, since we're talking about a hypothetical future in which Myers develops into a Bruce-like player during a modern context.
That figure doesn't account for the chance of an injury at some point in the next six years. Also, the distribution of Niese's value across such a long time frame decreases the potential impact of his acquisition - three two-WAR seasons aren't worth as much as one six-WAR season.
I don't see Niese as having any significant additional upside. What aspect of his game do believe that he could improve in order to account for this uptick in performance? He doesn't seem to have much physical projection left.
He's dropped his walk rate each of the last 2 years, from 3.21 per 9 to 2.52 per 9 to 2.32 per 9. So as a Met fanboy I could see convincing myself he could maybe cut the walk rate even more and become an elite control pitcher.
I feel like Myers for Niese very well could turn out to be a fair trade, or one that favors Niese, but also that if you have a prospect like Myers you'd hope to get something more than Niese for him, if that makes any sense.
But you can't use Bruce's past salaries as a baseline for Myers' future excess value because those salaries were determined in a different environment. If Myers performs exactly like Bruce over his first 4 full seasons, he will likely be paid more than Bruce was over his first 4 seasons, giving him less excess value.
Between Niese and Myers, Myers has been more significantly impacted by injury over the past few seasons than Niese. It's not as if there are specific concerns with Niese, and it's not as if Myers has no risk of injury in the next six seasons. Your point is a general one that pitchers are at more significant long term risk for injury and performance degradation than hitters. I agree with that, but it seems to be the Royals idea to trade hitting for pitching.
Well, he might not start throwing 95 mph, but I see no reason why he couldn't improve his control, refine his pitches, increase his stamina, learn how to better approach hitters, etc.
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