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Tuesday, December 04, 2018

Patrick Corbin agrees to terms with Nationals

The Washington Nationals are adding another high-caliber pitcher to their rotation, reportedly agreeing to terms with free agent Patrick Corbin on Tuesday.

The Washington Post first reported that Corbin and the Nats had agreed to terms.

The 29-year-old Corbin, an All-Star selection in 2018, is coming off his best season, going 11-7 with a 3.15 ERA while logging 200 innings for the second time in his career. Relying largely on his filthy slider, Corbin set a career high in strikeouts (246) after making his first Opening Day start for the Diamondbacks.

The Washington Post first reported that Corbin and the Nats had agreed to terms.

Looks like it’s 6 years and I’ve seen $125 million or $126 million.

Jose is an Absurd Kahuna Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:06 PM | 25 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: diamondbacks, free agents, nationals

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   1. Bote Man Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5793915)
Jamal Collier @JamalCollier
Source confirms the deal for Patrick Corbin is for six years, $140 million and includes deferrals.

Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Corbin is a nasty top of the rotation.


As expected, Bob Nightengale was wrong--again.

Also: buh-bye Bryce!
   2. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:16 PM (#5793918)
Corbin scares me. He was very good last year, but the velocity drop is disconcerting.

edit: down 1.4 MPH on his fastball, 1.2 MPH on his sinker, from 2017 to 2018.
   3. Bote Man Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:18 PM (#5793920)
Mark Zuckerman @MarkZuckerman
Nationals rotation now includes:
Scherzer: 7 years, $210 million (3 years remaining)
Strasburg: 7 years, $175 million (5 years remaining)
Corbin: 6 years, $140 million
   4. Baldrick Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5793923)
Oh boy would I not pay that much money for Corbin.
   5. jmurph Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5793928)
So, to the obvious question: do they have enough left to pay Harper?
   6. bbmck Posted: December 04, 2018 at 04:50 PM (#5793932)
Washington 2019 payroll is about 10% higher than 2018 with Corbin and without Harper. Ted Lerner is a 93 year old billionaire, if he cares more about a championship than the size of his estate he could add Harper and Machado and move Trea Turner to 2B.
   7. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 04, 2018 at 05:08 PM (#5793941)
So, to the obvious question: do they have enough left to pay Harper?

The Lerners are among the wealthier MLB owners. They could afford Harper if they wanted to. The effect on the bottom line might be uncertain, but a winning team with Harper ought to boost revenues. Unless the contract is totally ridiculous, Harper is worth more to the Nationals than any other team.
   8. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: December 04, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5793949)
They’ll be regretting this deal by August.

Good on Corbin though!
   9. Walt Davis Posted: December 04, 2018 at 05:19 PM (#5793950)
The Nats are the deferring-est of deferring teams so the NPV on this is probably closer to 6/$126, which makes it Darvish-Cueto class. When you take deferrals into account, Scherzer's contract is roughly the same as Lester's with an extra year (from memory) and is an awesome contract. Strasburg's is too complicated to even contemplate with the opt-outs but up to $70 of the $175 is deferred until after 2023. So while the headline numbers in #3 are impressively scary, the total NPV is probably closer to $420-440 M than the $515 M total.

Of coures an increasing number of such contracts are including deferrals and opt-outs so we may be approaching a time when we can go back to just comparing the raw dollar values and at least end up with the same ranking and relative $ comparisons.
   10. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 04, 2018 at 06:04 PM (#5793967)
Jon Heyman @JonHeyman 1h1 hour ago

nats have basically replaced salaries of wieters (11M), gio (12M) and madson (8M) with Corbin (23M) and Gomes (8M). so while other teams are wondering whether Corbin signing means they are out on Harper, the belief is that they are not necessarily out.


Chelsea Janes @chelsea_janes 1h1 hour ago

No one has said so, but stands to reason Rizzo and Co. plan is take care of business, leave the Harper decision up to ownership. Lerners were always going to have to make an unprecedented commitment to get. So get roster right without saving up for Harper, leave it up to them.
   11. bbmck Posted: December 04, 2018 at 06:08 PM (#5793971)
Jon Heyman "my boss told me to tweet that a team remains interested in his client".
   12. JJ1986 Posted: December 04, 2018 at 06:21 PM (#5793975)
I do not understand how Heyman decides which proper-nouns to capitalize on Twitter. He picked some of the last names in that post!
   13. aberg Posted: December 04, 2018 at 07:02 PM (#5793992)
Ted Lerner is a 93 year old billionaire


The Nats are the deferring-est of deferring teams


Hard not to relate these two statements to each other.
   14. JAHV Posted: December 04, 2018 at 07:13 PM (#5793995)
I do not understand how Heyman decides which proper-nouns to capitalize on Twitter. He picked some of the last names in that post!


I refuse to read Heyman tweets for this reason. I can't handle his disdain for proper capitalization.
   15. Ziggy's screen name Posted: December 04, 2018 at 07:26 PM (#5794000)
That's a lot of moolah for an okay pitcher, even if he had a good year last year. Dude is 29, and ZiPS projects him to a 3.76 ERA. Which isn't bad or anything. I guess $23m (at whatever NPV it is) is "above average starter" money now.
   16. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: December 04, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5794004)
Somewhere, I imagine there's a very HAPPy agent ...
   17. charityslave is thinking about baseball Posted: December 04, 2018 at 09:31 PM (#5794028)
The Nats are determined to get me to predict that they'll win the pennant for the 5th year in a row.
   18. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: December 04, 2018 at 09:33 PM (#5794031)
I refuse to read Heyman tweets for this reason. I can't handle his disdain for proper capitalization.
yeah, i hate that, too. it makes the words completely unreadable.
   19. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: December 04, 2018 at 09:37 PM (#5794034)
i, for one, am happy the phillies did not get corbin.

i could always be wrong, but i think it's better to wait out the market this year and try to sign someone like happ, pomeranz, warren, miley, etc. on the cheap as soon as the money dries up.

   20. Walt Davis Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:16 AM (#5794052)
ZiPS projects him to a 3.76 ERA

In DC or AZ? A 3.76 in AZ is pretty fine.

FWIW, last year sure looks like a breakout for him -- K-rate up by about 1/3, walk rate down by 1/4, HR rate down by 1/3, ERA worse than FIP. That's not "luck" as we usually think of it around here -- it could always be Brady Anderson 50-HR fluke but there's little doubt that his actual performance was better last year.
   21. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 05, 2018 at 01:38 AM (#5794053)
Isn't it especially dangerous from a health standpoint to rely on sliders?
   22. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 03:17 AM (#5794054)
Corbin is an injury risk, obvs. And his track record is short. But his K rate for a dude who threw 200 innings is hard to ignore -- it's the kind of thing only ace relievers used to put up.

Suffice it to say I'm curious what he's capable of, long-term.
   23. JL72 Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5794100)
Ted Lerner is a 93 year old billionaire, if he cares more about a championship than the size of his estate he could add Harper and Machado and move Trea Turner to 2B.


To me, the key question is how much does Ted want to see a World Series championship. As a Tigers fan, I saw them try to do that for Mike Ilitch in the years before he passed with mixed success. Unfortunately, it led to some really bad contracts that the team is still dealing with.

   24. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:29 AM (#5794106)
Corbin is an injury risk, obvs. And his track record is short. But his K rate for a dude who threw 200 innings is hard to ignore -- it's the kind of thing only ace relievers used to put up.

The scary part is he did it with declining velocity (FA down 1.4 MPH, SI down 1.2), and (as Dr. Vaux says) a huge rate of slider usage. 40%.
   25. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: December 07, 2018 at 09:09 AM (#5794926)
To me, the key question is how much does Ted want to see a World Series championship. As a Tigers fan, I saw them try to do that for Mike Ilitch in the years before he passed with mixed success. Unfortunately, it led to some really bad contracts that the team is still dealing with.

Heh, you say that like it is finally nearing its end. They are paying Cabrera until 2023. And they still owe Jordan Zimmermann 50 over the next 2 years. At least the VMart deal is finally done though, so there is that.

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