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Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Paul: Tigers’ Alan Trammell, Lou Whitaker hope to enter Hall of Fame side by side

When the BBWAA all had their quarrels and parted…

Detroit — It continues to frustrate Tigers fans.

And, sure, it frustrates the Tigers of yesteryear, too, that no player on that 1984 World Series championship team is represented in Cooperstown.

That puts the 1984 Tigers alongside the 1981 Dodgers as the only two World Series champions, pre-1995, not to have a Hall of Fame player.

“It’s because we’re Detroit, and not New York or Boston. You understand that?” said Paul Carey, Ernie Harwell’s long-time partner on Tigers broadcasts. “We’re west of the Hudson River, and that’s the problem.”

...And while guys like Barry Larkin and Ryne Sandberg have cruised to induction, their contemporaries from Detroit haven’t.

Whitaker, the smooth second baseman, couldn’t even last more than the one year, 2001, that he was on the ballot. And Trammell, the star shortstop, is going nowhere. He’s never received even half the votes needed for election, with two more years of eligibility remaining.

That’s not to say all hope is lost, however. There’s an Expansion Era committee created to induct those who fall through the cracks. Trammell, Whitaker and Jack Morris, who went 0-for-15-years on the Hall of Fame ballot, certainly will get serious consideration.

...“That’s the way it should be,” said Whitaker, decked out in shades and a fedora Monday. “I wouldn’t feel right going in if Tram wasn’t there. We played together, our numbers are the same, we were a combination.”

Whitaker is right. The numbers are scarily similar: They finished just four hits apart for their careers. Whitaker played 19 years, and Trammell one more.

Both received rousing ovations at the ballpark Monday, and the roars grew even louder when they set up for the ceremonial first pitch — only for Whitaker to wave Trammell out from behind home plate. Trammell headed to short, Whitaker to second, and they started a ceremonial double play — with Dave Bergman making a nice reach to finish it off at first.

“You don’t rush greatness. … We’ll wait. Our day will come,” said Whitaker, 57. “We know we deserve it. But, you know, what’s good about bragging about it, telling you guys how good we were? We know how good we were.”

 

Repoz Posted: July 02, 2014 at 08:30 AM | 69 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof, tigers

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   1. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 02, 2014 at 08:41 AM (#4741749)
It'll never happen but it should happen.
   2. AROM Posted: July 02, 2014 at 09:50 AM (#4741781)
81 Dodgers -

Among position players, Garvey came the closest, sticking on the ballot. Ron Cey was one and done, but had the best career among regulars. Reggie Smith had the best career overall, he was a bench player at that point of his career.

On the pitching staff, no serious HOF candidates, but plenty of HOVG.

Fernando 173-153
Reuss 220-191
Hooton 151-136
Welch 211-146
Stewart 168-129
Sutcliffe 171-139

You could get an easy HOF career if you add Fernando's 20's to Dave Stewart's 30's. Not to mention the Fernando "Smoke" Stewart hybrid threw 2 no-hitters on the same day.

Don Sutton missed by one year, he was a Dodger through 1980. Mike Scioscia might make it for managing some day.
   3. TRBMB Posted: July 02, 2014 at 09:50 AM (#4741782)
Won't happen as long as the most brilliant humans on the planet, the precious BBWAA, controls the process. They let Ron Santo pass before they woke up, they're doing it for Minnie Minoso, same will happen for Trammell and Whitaker.
   4. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: July 02, 2014 at 09:53 AM (#4741788)
and the roars grew even louder when they set up for the ceremonial first pitch — only for Whitaker to wave Trammell out from behind home plate. Trammell headed to short, Whitaker to second, and they started a ceremonial double play
Love it.
   5. GregD Posted: July 02, 2014 at 10:05 AM (#4741804)
A ceremonial double play is awesome!
   6. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 02, 2014 at 10:42 AM (#4741836)
Whitaker, 57


Well that's depressing. I'm ####### old.

EDIT: And a ceremonial double play is fantastic.
   7. Booey Posted: July 02, 2014 at 11:01 AM (#4741843)
They mention the '81 Dodgers and '84 Tigers as the only pre-1995 champs without a HOFer, but now that Maddux and Glavine were elected from the '95 Braves, it's actually pre-1997 (Boggs was on the '96 Yankees).

I could see several more recent teams adding to the trend, though.

1997 Marlins - Sheffield and Kevin Brown are worthy, but neither has/had a chance with the writers.

2002 Angels - No one looks like they even have an argument. Scoscia, I guess, if you're counting managers

2007 Red Sox - Manny ain't getting in. Papi and Schilling have a decent shot, but I don't think either are the locks others seem to think they are.

2008 Phillies - Utley probably deserves it, but I don't see it actually happening.

2010/2012 Giants - Lincecum's shot is gone. Cain isn't what he used to be. It's all up to Posey now.

2013 Red Sox - Maybe Papi or Pedroia. Too early to tell, obviously.
   8. Batman Posted: July 02, 2014 at 11:13 AM (#4741850)
No current Hall of Famers have played in a game for the Tigers since Al Kaline 40 years ago. Other than Kaline, it's 67 Eddie Mathews games in 1967 and 1968 and then back to Jim Bunning in 1963.
   9. base ball chick Posted: July 02, 2014 at 11:15 AM (#4741852)
trammell and whitaker did not hit enough Home Runs - but then if they did, they would be obvious steroid users and therefore Not Worthy

whitaker was unnoticed while he played. he's not getting into any HOF. trammell isn't getting in because the EVUL ROIDERS were better, so he is compared to them.

lose, lose
   10. AROM Posted: July 02, 2014 at 11:22 AM (#4741856)
If Pedroia gets in, he'll cover the 2007 and 2013 teams. Or we can wait till 2040 or so and see what kind of support Xander gets.

Counting managers, the 84 Tigers and 81 Dodgers are already represented.
   11. alilisd Posted: July 02, 2014 at 11:50 AM (#4741876)
They let Ron Santo pass before they woke up, they're doing it for Minnie Minoso, same will happen for Trammell and Whitaker.


The BBWAA doesn't control the Veterans Committee. They did not let Santo pass away before his induction, that was the fault of the various incarnations of the VC which missed on him. I'd say Trammell and Whitaker have a good shot through the current VC setup. But who knows how it may change going forward as it has been revised many times over the years.
   12. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: July 02, 2014 at 12:27 PM (#4741912)
The problem with the current system and the Expansion Era is that the players are lumped in the same ballot with the executives, managers, and umpires.
   13. Booey Posted: July 02, 2014 at 12:28 PM (#4741913)
AROM - D'oh! Forgot that Pedroia was on the 2007 Sox too. Still, I don't think he's any more of a lock than Papi or Schilling. Less so, actually, since he's got a lot of career left to be played.
   14. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: July 02, 2014 at 12:44 PM (#4741926)
No current Hall of Famers have played in a game for the Tigers since Al Kaline 40 years ago.


That's astounding, but BBREF P-I backs it up. One would think some HOFer in the journeyman phase of his career would have passed through Detroit, but no. The White Sox have had at least one future HOFer on their roster in all but a handful of seasons since 1974. Assuming Thome gets in, they are missing only 1977-1980 in the period 1974-2009. In 2010, Chris Sale showed up. They also had Manny Ramirez in 2010, Omar Vizquel in 2010 and 2011,
   15. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: July 02, 2014 at 12:51 PM (#4741934)
Hopefully Minnie Miñoso, who made a promotional appearance for the 1980 White Sox will make it in on December's Golden Era ballot (which unlike the Expansion Era ballot isn't chock full of managers and execs)
   16. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 01:04 PM (#4741946)
2007 Red Sox - Manny ain't getting in. Papi and Schilling have a decent shot, but I don't think either are the locks others seem to think they are.


Schilling will go in, it might take a few years for the backlog to clear up, but he'll go in, and as people around here like to talk about, Papi will also probably go in.

I also expect Utley to get some serious consideration when his career is over. This is not the 1990's (and earlier) version of the BBWAA. By the time he is eligible War will be a topic that a large percentage of the writers will be familiar with, and that will be enough to keep him on the ballot and generate support.
   17. AROM Posted: July 02, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4741957)
AROM - D'oh! Forgot that Pedroia was on the 2007 Sox too. Still, I don't think he's any more of a lock than Papi or Schilling. Less so, actually, since he's got a lot of career left to be played.


Pedroia's got a good start to a HOF career, but it all depends on how he finishes. His all-around game, as much as it helps the Red Sox, hurts him for the hall. Kind of makes him look like another Whitaker. Career .300 hitter, but his best is .326. Never more than 21 homers, never a 30 steal guy though he stole 20 4 times. He does have an MVP season which includes 213 hits. That will help.

I think Schilling will get in at some point. He probably will not improve his vote percentage this year, as Pedro and Randy take the place of Greg and Tom, keeping him down on the list. But once those guys get in, it's just him battling Smoltz and Mussina for recognition as best pitcher on the ballot (non Clemens division).

Ortiz - I won't go there. Every aspect has been covered in long BTF threads.

   18. Booey Posted: July 02, 2014 at 01:18 PM (#4741960)
Schilling will go in, it might take a few years for the backlog to clear up, but he'll go in, and as people around here like to talk about, Papi will also probably go in.


I'm less confident about this than most. Schilling has a lot of ground to make up and the ballot doesn't look like it's going to clear up any time soon. Also, 216 wins and no CYA's isn't helping, especially compared to some super contemporaries like Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Pedro, etc. Hi numbers are similar to Kevin Browns. I suspect Mussina will have a tough road too.

As for Papi, I think people are way too confident that 75% of the voters will be willing to ignore the roids just this one time.
   19. Astroenteritis Posted: July 02, 2014 at 01:29 PM (#4741971)
Whitaker, 57

Well that's depressing. I'm ####### old.


No kidding. I'm a year younger than Lou, though!

Loved watching those guys play; can't believe the bit about Kaline being the last HOFer to play in a game for DET. That's amazing.
   20. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 01:59 PM (#4741998)
I'm less confident about this than most. Schilling has a lot of ground to make up and the ballot doesn't look like it's going to clear up any time soon. Also, 216 wins and no CYA's isn't helping, especially compared to some super contemporaries like Maddux, Glavine, Johnson, Pedro, etc. Hi numbers are similar to Kevin Browns. I suspect Mussina will have a tough road too.


Schilling started out with 38% of the vote, Jack Morris started out with 22%(and didn't break 35% until his sixth year on the ballot). There is plenty of time for him to gain ground, and I fully expect him to go in by the tenth year on the ballot. Crowded ballot is hurting him now, but it clears up eventually(to an extent).

His numbers are comparable to Kevin Brown, and also Smoltz...Smoltz is going in. Brown got shafted because of a small roid rumor, and he's a full blown a-hole. Schilling is adored by the press(even if he's less than a pleasant person to be around) has the clutch numbers similar to Ortiz(without the 6 or so post season chokes that Ortiz has on his resume and his chokes are bloody sockable) barring a scandal, Schilling will go in on the writers watch.
   21. AROM Posted: July 02, 2014 at 02:03 PM (#4742000)
Loved watching those guys play; can't believe the bit about Kaline being the last HOFer to play in a game for DET. That's amazing.


That is amazing, that none of the HOFers since then didn't at least play a year in Detroit. If the vets don't solve it, it could be someone not generally associated with the Tigers who played there for a few years. Gary Sheffield or Pudge Rodriguez.

Or else just wait for Miguel Cabrera in 15 years.
   22. AROM Posted: July 02, 2014 at 02:06 PM (#4742002)
Angels don't have a HOF member wearing their hat, but in the same timespan can at least say these guys played for them:

Blyleven
Rickey
Eddie Murray
Dave Winfield
Don Sutton
Nolan Ryan
Reggie Jackson
Rod Carew
   23. Batman Posted: July 02, 2014 at 02:15 PM (#4742009)
The Rockies haven't have any HOFers, but the other three most recent expansion teams have had one each so far: Dawson for the Marlins, Boggs for the Devil Rays, and Alomar for the D-Backs. Somehow Rickey missed all of them.
   24. Booey Posted: July 02, 2014 at 02:19 PM (#4742012)
#20 - Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if Schilling made it via the writers. I just don't think he's a lock, and I listed every champ that MIGHT not be represented. I actually do think it's pretty unlikely that NONE of the Schilling/Manny/Papi/Pedroia group gets elected. But it's an outside possibility since none of them are (IMO) stone cold locks.

I tend to believe this generation of players is/will continue to be judged more harshly than previous ones. How earlier candidates from pre-'cheating' eras did doesn't necessarily mean we'll see matching patterns with the current crop of candidates. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess.

And despite the surge in his support over the years, Morris ended up falling short anyway. Blyleven might've been a better example.
   25. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: July 02, 2014 at 02:28 PM (#4742020)
The Angels should have Grich wearing their cap in the HOF but the Expansion Era ballot has yet to even include him on the ballot. I could see Vlad going in with a Halos cap. Hopefully they won't have to wait for Trout to be the first
   26. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: July 02, 2014 at 03:59 PM (#4742108)
I could see several more recent teams adding to the trend (of championship teams with no HOFers)

That's because the leagues have expanded, and the Hall hasn't kept up. Let's take a look at 50 years ago vs. today:

Players with 2000 AB from
1954-63: 162 (including 25 HOFers).
2004-13: 335.

And yet the Hall keeps electing just a few people per year, a number that's actually dropping thanks to OMG TEH STEROIDS! If the Hall doesn't start getting it in gear and electing 5-6 players per year, they're gonna leave out a lot of worthy players.
   27. alilisd Posted: July 02, 2014 at 04:11 PM (#4742120)
The problem with the current system and the Expansion Era is that the players are lumped in the same ballot with the executives, managers, and umpires.


Good point. This really should be changed.
   28. alilisd Posted: July 02, 2014 at 04:26 PM (#4742133)
I also expect Utley to get some serious consideration when his career is over. This is not the 1990's (and earlier) version of the BBWAA. By the time he is eligible War will be a topic that a large percentage of the writers will be familiar with, and that will be enough to keep him on the ballot and generate support.


I don't know. I agree the BBWAA is changing, but that's a bit more than a change you're descriing. That's more like a full on revolution. As great as Utley has been by WAR, he wasn't a full time player until he turned 26. He's never been recognized by the writers in the MVP voting. He's 35 and just passed the 6,000 PA mark. He has essentially none of the historical markers of a HOF (ink, standards, awards, milestone numbers), and isn't likely to attain them at this stage of his career. To get to even a borderline HOF career in terms of playing time, he'd need to add another 2,000 PA's. Given his health issues over the past four years this hardly seems a given. I'd like to see him go in, but I just don't see the BBWAA changing its standards that significantly over the next decade or two. Unless he has another three full seasons of high level play, I don't think he gets much, if any, consideration.
   29. Booey Posted: July 02, 2014 at 04:30 PM (#4742138)
And yet the Hall keeps electing just a few people per year, a number that's actually dropping thanks to OMG TEH STEROIDS! If the Hall doesn't start getting it in gear and electing 5-6 players per year, they're gonna leave out a lot of worthy players.


Yeah. And they actually don't even need to elect 5-6 a year to hit a reasonable amount. 3 a year until the backlog is cleared and then 2 a year after that would probably work just fine. But electing 0 or 1 in any year nowadays is inexcusible, IMO.

I understand (but don't agree with) those that say the HOF doesn't need to INCREASE the amount of HOFers to keep up with expansion, but it makes absolutely no sense to DECREASE the amount of players elected either.
   30. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 04:39 PM (#4742144)
I don't know. I agree the BBWAA is changing, but that's a bit more than a change you're descriing. That's more like a full on revolution. As great as Utley has been by WAR, he wasn't a full time player until he turned 26. He's never been recognized by the writers in the MVP voting. He's 35 and just passed the 6,000 PA mark. He has essentially none of the historical markers of a HOF (ink, standards, awards, milestone numbers), and isn't likely to attain them at this stage of his career. To get to even a borderline HOF career in terms of playing time, he'd need to add another 2,000 PA's. Given his health issues over the past four years this hardly seems a given. I'd like to see him go in, but I just don't see the BBWAA changing its standards that significantly over the next decade or two. Unless he has another three full seasons of high level play, I don't think he gets much, if any, consideration.


I don't think that is a revolution. The "revolution" already happened with Blylven's induction and Hernandez Cy Young award. The MVP vote total doesn't really make a difference. Utley will need a gradual decline phase(which may not happen of course) where he reaches some legitimate numbers 2200+ hits will probably be the minimum he would need to be a serious candidate. It's possible he might get the Trammell treatment when he becomes eligible, but I really doubt it. My comment was entirely based upon a normal decline phase, where he does put up some numbers.

We are talking about his name appearing on the ballot ten years from now. That is 10-25 years for the voters (who many will not be traditional newspaper writers at that point in time) to come to a reasonable conclusion.

   31. donlock Posted: July 02, 2014 at 04:54 PM (#4742157)
I hope to enter hot tub, side-by-side with Jessica Alba.

Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things.
   32. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: July 02, 2014 at 04:59 PM (#4742162)
No current Hall of Famers have played in a game for the Tigers since Al Kaline 40 years ago. Other than Kaline, it's 67 Eddie Mathews games in 1967 and 1968 and then back to Jim Bunning in 1963.

Wow!

This could change soon if Ivan Rodriguez gets in. I say "if", of course. Who knows if he'll be put on the steriod blacklist.
   33. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:09 PM (#4742173)
I understand (but don't agree with) those that say the HOF doesn't need to INCREASE the amount of HOFers to keep up with expansion, but it makes absolutely no sense to DECREASE the amount of players elected either.


I'm one of those who say that they don't need to increase the amount of hofers, but my argument is more that they don't need to increase it in the same percentage that the number of players increase. I don't have a real problem with some increase, due to medical advancements (Tommy John most notably, but Lasik and contact lenses have probably helped out a lot of players stay productive after normal cliff dying age, along with better surgical techniques that have sped up recovery times of serious injuries and return them back to form) health awareness(working out not bad as once thought) etc...

I think that if in the past we were getting two hof quality players premiering a year in the league, only one of which actually ended up having a hof career, that nowadays we might still be getting only two hof quality premiering a year, but 80% of those guys are sticking around long enough, so every five years in the past we might have had 5 hofers premiere in the past five years, now we are getting 8. (numbers made up to illustrate)
   34. Booey Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:19 PM (#4742186)
#30 - Even if WAR is more widely accepted by the time Utley becomes eligible, it's never going to be the end-all-be-all for voters (nor should it be), and Utley is almost entirely a WAR-only candidate. His traditional stats will likely be really low for a HOFer. Blyleven at least had big numbers in several easily recognizable categories (wins, innings, strikeouts, shutouts), and Hernandez led the league in ERA and was amongst the leaders in strikeouts and innings. Too much of Chase's value is hidden in numbers that don't show up in obvious areas.

If you want to make the HOF as an extreme peak candidate, you'd better lead the league in ERA or homers every year during that stretch like Koufax or Kiner.
   35. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:31 PM (#4742196)
#30 - Even if WAR is more widely accepted by the time Utley becomes eligible, it's never going to be the end-all-be-all for voters (nor should it be), and Utley is almost entirely a WAR-only candidate. His traditional stats will likely be really low for a HOFer. Blyleven at least had big numbers in several easily recognizable categories (wins, innings, strikeouts, shutouts), and Hernandez led the league in ERA and was amongst the leaders in strikeouts and innings. Too much of Chase's value is hidden in numbers that don't show up in obvious areas.

If you want to make the HOF as an extreme peak candidate, you'd better lead the league in ERA or homers every year during that stretch like Koufax or Kiner.


I don't think it will ever be the end all, be all of hof voters, but it's going to open up the conversation. Where a guy like Grich got missed because of the lack of context on his value, a guy like Utley will not get missed. Again, I'm talking with a traditional decline phase, he's going to be around 2300 career hits, 300 homeruns(2nd or 3rd all time for his position), 1000+ runs and rbi(top ~15 for his position), 6+ all star appearances.

And again, I think that by the time he becomes eligible, there will be plenty of voters who will know about his value not showing up in obvious numbers, enough to get his momentum started.
   36. Booey Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:35 PM (#4742198)
#33 - Thing is, they don't even need to increase the number of HOFers to include all these longer career modern guys with hall caliber numbers; just elect the same amount they already have historically and you'll increase the quality of the players enshrined without increasing the quantity, as you'll be able to include more solidly deserving players without having to resort to the borderline (and flat out bad) choices we all complain about. I don't see how that could be a bad thing.

Induct maybe 20-ish players a decade, and the worst players from the 90's and 2000's will be guys like McGwire, Sosa, Sheffield, Vlad, Kent, Ichiro, etc. I'd say that group is miles ahead of Sutter, Rice, Puckett, Perez, Dawson, and Gossage, whom the writers have selected with a similar amount of inductees.
   37. RJ in TO Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:41 PM (#4742202)
I don't think it will ever be the end all, be all of hof voters, but it's going to open up the conversation. Where a guy like Grich got missed because of the lack of context on his value, a guy like Utley will not get missed. Again, I'm talking with a traditional decline phase, he's going to be around 2300 career hits, 300 homeruns(2nd or 3rd all time for his position), 1000+ runs and rbi(top ~15 for his position), 6+ all star appearances.


You seem to be projecting a very, very gradual decline phase for Utley. He's still only at 223 homers, last hit more than 18 in a season in 2009, and only has 6 at the half-point of this season. For hits, he's also only at 1501, and also last had more than 150 in a season in 2009. You're asking for a decline phase that lasts another 6 years or so, for a guy who is already a 35 year old 2B, and who doesn't exactly have a great record of health. It would be nice to see Utley stick around as both healthy and productive for that long, but it seems much more likely that he's done as an effective regular well before that.

And if that happens, then he ends up in a similar situation to Grich - high on WAR, short on counting, low on league leading stats.
   38. GregD Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:54 PM (#4742225)
I don't think it will ever be the end all, be all of hof voters, but it's going to open up the conversation. Where a guy like Grich got missed because of the lack of context on his value, a guy like Utley will not get missed. Again, I'm talking with a traditional decline phase, he's going to be around 2300 career hits, 300 homeruns(2nd or 3rd all time for his position), 1000+ runs and rbi(top ~15 for his position), 6+ all star appearances.
I like Utley as much as anyone other than Mac, but I would take the under on the home runs and hits, for sure
   39. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:55 PM (#4742226)
You seem to be projecting a very, very gradual decline phase for Utley. He's still only at 223 homers, last hit more than 18 in a season in 2009, and only has 6 at the half-point of this season.


Yes I am. I do not think he's hof worthy right now, even if I did think War was the be all end all of a player's value. I generally assume anyone posting a 122 ops+ is going to have five more years as a major league regular, I do not believe there is any predictive value from previous health issues, so we are looking at a guy who will probably play five more years at 100 ops+ on average, with roughly 145 games per year, that is roughly 2500 pa, roughly 800 hits.... roughly another 60 homeruns etc.

And if that happens, then he ends up in a similar situation to Grich - high on WAR, short on counting, low on league leading stats.


Absolutely agree, but the difference is that we are talking about an electorate that is 30 years removed from when Grich was first voted on. My argument is that the writers in Utley's time will be smarter than they were in Grich(or Whitaker's time)
   40. Walt Davis Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4742228)
On Schilling et al: They'll start to climb once Pedro and Unit are out of the way (have I forgotten anybody). Once they are the best starters on the ballot, up they go. They might hit a bump when St. Mariano comes on.

On Utley: I don't take Blyleven's election as strong evidence of the coming saber revolution. He and Morris both had the advantage of being the best starters on the ballot for about a decade. Blyleven got elected as a career compiler. His election is evidence that an advocate can make a difference. But, yes, 10++ years from now (hopefully) when Utley hits the ballot, WAR will be a regular part of the HoF conversation.

But if the world had changed much Walker and probably Edgar would be having a much easier time of it. Utley won't have any saber argument that Walker doesn't currently have and Walker's got an MVP, GGs, career 300 BA. It's surprising how little MVP love Utley got -- he even had 4 straight 100-RBI seasons and the voters considered him an afterthought on his own team.
   41. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 05:56 PM (#4742229)
I like Utley as much as anyone other than Mac, but I would take the under on the home runs and hits, for sure


If Utley doesn't make it to 2200 hits, then I don't think he has a chance at the hof, regardless of his career war and who is voting.
   42. alilisd Posted: July 02, 2014 at 10:03 PM (#4742374)
Injury history absolutely has predictive value when it's degenerative cartilage in the knee. And the"traditional" decline you're expecting with 2,500 PA's and 100 OPS+? Five guys in MLB history have that many PA's playing at least half their game at 2B from 36 on. That's clearly an optimistic decline you're projecting, not a traditional one.
   43. cardsfanboy Posted: July 02, 2014 at 10:29 PM (#4742386)
Injury history absolutely has predictive value when it's degenerative cartilage in the knee. And the"traditional" decline you're expecting with 2,500 PA's and 100 OPS+? Five guys in MLB history have that many PA's playing at least half their game at 2B from 36 on. That's clearly an optimistic decline you're projecting, not a traditional one.


And if he falls off a cliff, he doesn't make it. He has to have at least 8000 pa to have a shot. He has to have 2200 hits to have a shot. I think there is about a 50+% chance that he will. More importantly, in regards to the discussion we were having on this thread, if he does make that, even without traditional eye popping stats, he will get much more love than Grich or Whitaker did in the hof voting.

Not really a fan of "there have only been a handful of number of players to do this" in regards to decline phase.... how many guys who have put up the numbers that Utley has at his age? How many of those guys who didn't have a decline phase, do that prior to 1990 and more recent medical advancements.... A players decline in 1950 has no bearing on how a likely a player is going to decline in 2014.
   44. Walt Davis Posted: July 02, 2014 at 11:45 PM (#4742430)
CFB, more with you than agin' you in #43 but if few have ever done it then, by definition, few have done it recently. I'd start the criticism by noting that Utley potentially will still hit well enough to play 1B or DH.

Anyhoo, since 1900, age 36+, any position, 2500+ PA -- only 56 players
Integration era: 43
Expansion era: 39
1990+: 25
2000+: 12

Looks pretty steady at about 1 new 36-year-old per year will do it. Of course Utley doesn't even have 2500 PA from 31-35 so probably pretty unlikely. That lack of playing time makes it a bit hard to find good comps for Utley. But he's produced about 1 oWAR per 150 PA over the last three years so let's try that, min 1000 PA:

In the 2000s we get 15 players. Even if we give him credit for a full-ish season this year, he's 3rd from last in PA among that group -- ahead of Griffey and teammate Carlos Ruiz. He could end up not far behind ARam in PA and ahead of him in oWAR.

Of the 11 not (nearly) done yet, two of them made it past 2500 (Kent, L Gonzalez), Jeter will make it and Chipper missed by 29 PA. Griffey (surprisingly durable at these ages, unfortunately for his teams) and Sheff made it to 2200 and the others are under 1500.

In his favor, probably the three most like him put up good WAR -- Chipper (17 WAR!), Kent and Walker (10 each). The most hits was 700 by Kent, Jeter's 2nd place total (as of today) would leave Utley on 2150.

Kent, Whitaker and Morgan will always be out there as promising comps for a guy like this. Also Molitor although he was a better hitter than Utley 31-35.


   45. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:40 AM (#4742453)
No current Hall of Famers have played in a game for the Tigers since Al Kaline 40 years ago.

Let me add my voice to the chorus of people saying this is astounding/amazing.

Other than the Rockies, who haven't yet had a Hall-of-Famer, have any teams gone longer than 40 years without one? The expansion Blue Jays (6), Mariners (3), Marlins (1), Rays (1), and Diamondbacks (1) are accounted for.
   46. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:49 AM (#4742456)
Well, I just went through all the teams in my head and was able to quickly identify at least one Hall-of-Famer since 1974. (Nolan Ryan, Eddie Murray, and Gary Carter filled about 1/3 of the spots.)

So other than the Rockies with their drought of "forever", the Tigers have gone the longest without a current-future HOFer. I think all the other teams had a future HOFer in the '80s or later.
   47. DanG Posted: July 03, 2014 at 02:27 AM (#4742465)
2B with 21 WAA

Rk              Player BtWins WAA/pos dWAR WAR/pos    PA From   To
1       Rogers Hornsby  85.60    97.5 13.9   127.0  9480 1915 1937 H
2        Eddie Collins  66.63    78.8  8.2   123.9 12044 1906 1930 H
3           Nap Lajoie  62.17    68.0 10.1   107.4 10461 1896 1916 H
4           Joe Morgan  50.48    63.2  3.3   100.3 11329 1963 1984 H
5            Rod Carew  42.00    46.0 
-2.4    81.0 10550 1967 1985 H
6    Charlie Gehringer  32.63    45.4 10.7    80.6 10244 1924 1942 H
7          Bobby Grich  27.42    43.4 16.2    70.9  8220 1970 1986
'8         Chase Utley  19.89    42.6 17.2    60.4  6019 2003 2014'
9         Lou Whitaker  22.53    42.5 15.4    74.9  9967 1977 1995
10     Jackie Robinson  24.89    39.4 10.0    61.5  5804 1947 1956 H
11      Frankie Frisch  12.45    39.1 21.6    70.4 10099 1919 1937 H
12       Ryne Sandberg  15.54    38.1 12.8    67.5  9282 1981 1997 H
13          Joe Gordon  15.15    37.1 22.4    57.1  6537 1938 1950 H
14     Willie Randolph  10.82    35.7 19.4    65.5  9461 1975 1992
15      Roberto Alomar  21.64    32.3  2.4    66.8 10400 1988 2004 H
16        Craig Biggio  21.17    28.7 
-3.9    65.1 12504 1988 2007
17         Bobby Doerr  13.99    27.0 13.4    51.2  8028 1937 1951 H
18        Billy Herman  14.82    26.6 12.4    54.7  8639 1931 1947 H
19           Jeff Kent  27.52    26.3 
-0.7    55.2  9537 1992 2008
20       Robinson Cano  19.50    26.0  5.9    47.8  6134 2005 2014
21      Dustin Pedroia  10.64    25.1 12.3    41.4  4921 2006 2014
22          Bid McPhee   9.37    25.0 16.3    52.4  9429 1882 1899 H
23        Johnny Evers   8.23    24.2 15.4    47.7  7211 1902 1929 H
24       Gil McDougald   7.86    24.1 14.0    40.7  5398 1951 1960
25         Fred Dunlap  17.79    23.7  8.9    36.9  4264 1880 1891
26        Tony Lazzeri  19.02    23.6  5.2    49.9  7314 1926 1939 H
27        Cupid Childs  20.90    22.3  4.0    44.3  6766 1888 1901
28         Larry Doyle  23.09    21.6 
-2.2    45.1  7379 1907 1920
29       Tony Phillips  14.75    21.5  5.5    50.8  9110 1982 1999
30         Ian Kinsler   7.50    21.2  9.4    38.3  5148 2006 2014
31    Hardy Richardson  21.82    21.0  3.0    40.5  6029 1879 1892 
   48. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 03, 2014 at 03:07 AM (#4742466)
After doing the research, this is what I've got:

NEVER - Rockies
1974 - Tigers (Al Kaline)
1982 - Pirates (Willie Stargell)
1988 - Astros (Nolan Ryan)
1989 - Phillies (Mike Schmidt)
1990 - Giants (Gary Carter)

Most likely to break the streak:

Rockies - maybe Todd Helton (2013), eligible in 2019
Tigers - Ivan Rodriguez (2008), eligible in 2017 (depending on steroid issues and whether Morris, Whitaker or Trammell get in first via some form of veterans committee)
Pirates - Should be but won't be Barry Bonds (1992), can't think of any other real candidates
Astros - Craig Biggio (2007) and Randy Johnson (1998), probably next year
Phillies - Pedro Martinez (2009 -- forgot about that!), probably next year
Giants - Randy Johnson (2009), probably next year

A year from now every team in baseball will likely have had an active future HOFer after 1990 (the grammar is tricky here -- but you know what I mean) except for the Pirates, Tigers and Rockies.

If the BBWAA doesn't reverse course on steroids, it could be a very long wait for the Pirates. The only non-active, non-Barry Bonds guy who might have a slim chance of even surviving the 5% cut is Brian Giles (2003), who joins an extremely crowded ballot next year.
   49. RMc is a fine piece of cheese Posted: July 03, 2014 at 06:20 AM (#4742469)
Tigers should've signed Rickey. Rickey played for damn near everybody, and Rickey Hall of Famer...
   50. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 03, 2014 at 07:17 AM (#4742474)
Tigers should've signed Rickey. Rickey played for damn near everybody, and Rickey Hall of Famer...

Yeah, some of those guys really got around: Rickey (9 teams) + Alomar (7 teams) alone covers 13 separate teams (they share 3 teams). Gossage (9 teams) gives you another 4 unique teams.

All three of those guys played for the Padres, who, despite not being a particularly successful franchise, have had 10 HOFers pass through since the Tigers had Kaline in 1974. Only one of them (Gwynn) is automatically identified with the Padres, though perhaps Winfield is too. (I think of him as a Yankee, but he spent almost as much time in San Diego.) The Indians have had 9, the Twins have had 6, the Brewers have had 5, and even the Royals have had 4 (you'd have to be a pretty big fan to identify 3 of them -- they weren't in KC long).
   51. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: July 03, 2014 at 09:56 AM (#4742527)
the Royals have had 4 (you'd have to be a pretty big fan to identify 3 of them -- they weren't in KC long).


Gaylord Perry is one. Early 80's. Can't think of the others.
   52. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:08 AM (#4742533)
Giles ain't getting 5%, nor should he. He'll be lucky to get 5 votes. He's 20th in WAR on next year's ballot, 15 guys who got votes last year plus Randy and pedro as newcomers, and even if you eliminate the obvious roider blackballs, there's plenty of better guys ahead of him, plus Don Mattingly and Lee Smith siphoning votes behind him.
   53. Batman Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4742536)
Did Killebrew stop by Kansas City?

(checked- yes, he was a Royal his last year, and I wouldn't have guessed the other one)
   54. BDC Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:35 AM (#4742550)
astounding/amazing

All the more amazing since the Tigers have this perpetual ability to win a pennant every 15-20 years or so to keep hope alive for a new generation. It's not like they've been in the dark ages for 40 years.

But I agree that Little Pudge is very likely to break this spell when eligible. He will also fill in a large swath of Texas Rangers history, of course. I reckon Nolan Ryan in 1993 was the last HOFer to play for Texas, though Blyleven (much earlier) was inducted much later.

I was somewhat spoiled as a youngster by seeing Banks, Williams, Santo, and Jenkins play for the Cubs and then Schmidt and Carlton for Philadelphia, not to mention a parade of HOFers on visiting teams like the Cardinals, Reds, Giants, and Pirates. Perhaps that's just because more guys get elected by the Veterans as I get older, but many of the players I saw as a kid (Mays, Clemente, Morgan) were pretty obvious for the HOF while active. So perhaps it's a matter of the BBWAA getting choosier, while a horde of recent superstars are being steroid-blackballed: I saw Thomas and Alomar play, and Rickey Henderson of course, but they're not adding many guys to my life list annually any more.

   55. alilisd Posted: July 03, 2014 at 11:39 AM (#4742611)
All three of those guys played for the Padres, who, despite not being a particularly successful franchise, have had 10 HOFers pass through since the Tigers had Kaline in 1974. Only one of them (Gwynn) is automatically identified with the Padres, though perhaps Winfield is too.


Yes, we're fond of picking up HOF players at the end of their careers. And Winfield is absolutely a Padre. He has a Padres hat on his plaque and was a Senior Vice President for them for 13 years, from 2000 until last year.
   56. alilisd Posted: July 03, 2014 at 11:49 AM (#4742624)
How many of those guys who didn't have a decline phase, do that prior to 1990 and more recent medical advancements.... A players decline in 1950 has no bearing on how a likely a player is going to decline in 2014.


You're awfully fond of the absolutes. No bearing? So what medical advancements have been made in regenerating cartilage in the knee? Of course it has bearing. And it's not solely injuries which cause decline. Baseball requires excptional eyesight and reflexes/reaction time at the plate. These decline with age, regardless of injury history. It also requires exceptional endurance, both mentally and physically, to go out there nearly everyday for six months, and that's just in the competitive season. It grinds you down, year after year. It takes its toll. These factors have always had bearing, and still do today.

Sure, Utley may decline as you describe, but age and history are against him, as is his own personal injury history, and they all do bear on the situation.
   57. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:02 PM (#4742636)
   58. alilisd Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4742652)
I do not believe there is any predictive value from previous health issues,


I'm curious as to how you reconcile this position with your position that health is a skill, too. They seem contradictory to me.
   59. Cooper Nielson Posted: July 03, 2014 at 12:48 PM (#4742682)
I reckon Nolan Ryan in 1993 was the last HOFer to play for Texas,

You are correct.

It's interesting that the Rangers have had 5 Hall of Fame players in their history (not counting manager Ted Williams) and they are all pitchers (Jenkins, Perry, Blyleven, Gossage, Ryan). I have always thought of the Rangers as an offense-first franchise, guys like Juan Gonzalez and Pudge Rodriguez and Ruben Sierra and Josh Hamilton and Alex Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro and Nelson Cruz and Jose Canseco... hmmm, that's an interesting group of players.
   60. BDC Posted: July 03, 2014 at 01:03 PM (#4742702)
that's an interesting group of players

Better living through chemistry.
   61. JE (Jason) Posted: July 03, 2014 at 01:07 PM (#4742714)
If only more of the BBWAA's older members had watched Magnum P.I., both Trammell and Whitaker would have gone in on the first ballot.
   62. jdennis Posted: July 03, 2014 at 01:50 PM (#4742747)
There's still an argument against Utley even for WAR people - he benefits more from the weaker portion of dWAR than most. However, he does have the massive boost of playing for one team his entire career, and being a part of a core that won a title. Trammell and Whitaker will say that won't get him in, but I am convinced that both will get in via VC, so Utley might go that route also.
   63. Moeball Posted: July 03, 2014 at 03:56 PM (#4742824)
I doubt it will happen, but if the VC were to elect Trammaker together, that would be an induction ceremony worth attending, even traveling from San Diego.
   64. cardsfanboy Posted: July 03, 2014 at 04:21 PM (#4742831)
I'm curious as to how you reconcile this position with your position that health is a skill, too. They seem contradictory to me.


I think health is a skill in the past tense, in that it provides value in the players performance. I don't think health is generally predictive, age is more predictive of health problems than past health problems.

Again, my point is that Utley with a normal decline phase, and basically ending up with a career on par with Grich/Whitaker, will do better in the hof voting than either of those guys, because the writers are going to be much better educated on player values.

   65. BDC Posted: July 03, 2014 at 05:27 PM (#4742867)
Grich was eligible for last year's Expansion Era vote, but not on the ballot, right? (Whitaker was not eligible.) As opposed to Garvey and Concepcion … of course that's a different set of selectors and voters, but it doesn't look like education has reached them.
   66. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: July 03, 2014 at 06:19 PM (#4742888)
Grich was eligible for the 2013 and the 2010 Exp Era ballot. The Historical Overview Comm that devises the ballot doesn't do a very good job--I notice they select overrated players like Garvey & Parker who did well in BBWAA voting over strong saber candidates like Grich. This is where having the mgrs, execs, owners, & commissioners on the same ballot as the players clogs the ballot

in 2010 there were eight players (Concepcion, Garvey, Oliver, Simmons, Staub, Blue, Guidry, & T John) and four non-players (Gillick, Miller, Martin, & Steinbrenner)on the ballot
in place of the non players the committee should've added guys like Grich, Nettles, Darrell Evans, and Reggie Smith (unless they felt Smith fell into the Golden Era)

in 2013 there only six players (Concepcion, Garvey, Simmons, TJohn, Quiz, & Parker) and six non players (Miller, Martin, Steinbrenner, Cox, LaRussa, Torre)
once again a few great players like Dwight Evans, Keith Hernandez & Willie Randolph were passed over
   67. cardsfanboy Posted: July 03, 2014 at 06:24 PM (#4742891)
Grich was eligible for last year's Expansion Era vote, but not on the ballot, right? (Whitaker was not eligible.) As opposed to Garvey and Concepcion … of course that's a different set of selectors and voters, but it doesn't look like education has reached them.


Yes he was eligible and passed over.

Grich is now getting screwed over because of the ignorance of the past.(as pointed out by post 66...the guys put back on the ballot are often guys who did well in the original voting) I fully think Grich is a clear and deserving hofer, but I also think he's about 5th on the list that needs a campaign to put him in, and he'll probably never get it while he's alive. (Personally I still focus on Trammel since he's on the ballot, Raines who I don't think is any more deserving than Grich, but a better opportunity, Simmons who was my favorite player growing up..etc)
   68. Tubbs & Minnie Miñoso don't fear Sid Monge Posted: July 03, 2014 at 10:52 PM (#4743053)
Before Rich Lerderer of Baseball Analysts went MIA in early 2012, he was a big supporter of Grich, Matt Welch who sometimes comments here is also a big supporter. By my screen name you can tell I'm a supporter too. I'd love to see a true bandwagon for Grich and the HOF

Simmons is an obvious oversight by the Expansion Era and should'vd gotten in or come close when they decided to put Gillick in. On the latest ballot, no one else was gonna get much support with Cox, Torre, and LaRussa getting a ton of votes
   69. alilisd Posted: July 04, 2014 at 12:16 PM (#4743199)
64: Thanks for clarifying. I had always thought you meant some players were better at staying healthy in a forward looking sense rather than they had added value in a historical sense.

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