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Sunday, March 08, 2009

PECOTA Discussed on the MLB Network (Video)

“Stats are ridiculous.” - Harold Reynolds.

Thanks to Vegas Watch for the headsplosion.

Repoz Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:14 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: announcers, baseball geeks, fantasy baseball, media, projections, sabermetrics, television, zips

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. HGM Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:31 PM (#3096055)
Albert Pujols averages 128 RBI per 162 games. He drove in 116 last year. It's ridiculous that he'll drive in 122? LOL
   2. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:33 PM (#3096056)
Nobody believes that PECOTA is gospel. We think it's a reasonable projection.
   3. HGM Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:34 PM (#3096057)
This entire segment was devoid of logic. "It's what the game was founded on"? Okay Harold Reynolds, if you want to go back to what the game was founded on, you wouldn't be sitting there right now discussing baseball.
   4. Crashburn Alley Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:37 PM (#3096058)
They should have Rob Neyer or someone of that ilk on there to clear up some... err... all of the confusion.
   5. Repoz Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:38 PM (#3096059)
It's everything I expected MLB Philo to be.
   6. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:40 PM (#3096060)
Apparently eyes can't deceive. Sweet!
   7. Repoz Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:41 PM (#3096062)
They should have Rob Neyer or someone of that ilk on there to clear up some... err... all of the confusion.

Neyer used to do radio with John Sterling...isn't that torture enough?
   8. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: March 08, 2009 at 08:42 PM (#3096064)
That's a pretty good encapsulation of why I haven't caught on to the studio shows. One anchor, three ex-players, no diversity of viewpoints.

Magrane is the worst, as far as sentence construction is concerned.
   9. BarrettsHiddenBall Posted: March 08, 2009 at 09:07 PM (#3096072)
What's the big deal? Picota was on ESPN2 just yesterday.
   10. Steve M. Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:06 PM (#3096117)
Sean Casey on the draft: "Are you gettin' good character guys; are these guys winners?"

Inquiring minds want to know.
   11. twon8 Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:06 PM (#3096118)
Ralph Kiner at 86, knows more about baseball than Harold Reynolds. He often refers to OBP, and when discussing the new rules of the WBC in extra innings, he said that while a team years ago would have been tempted to bunt in that situation (first and second, no out), in todays game the team will score more by not giving up outs. He was aware that bunting is a bad play nearly all the time, and you are better off hitting away.
   12. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:25 PM (#3096126)
Ralph Kiner at 86, knows more about baseball than Harold Reynolds. He often refers to OBP, and when discussing the new rules of the WBC in extra innings, he said that while a team years ago would have been tempted to bunt in that situation (first and second, no out), in todays game the team will score more by not giving up outs. He was aware that bunting is a bad play nearly all the time, and you are better off hitting away.
If the road team doesn't score, though, then NOT bunting in the bottom of the inning is about as stupid a move as a manager could make.
   13. Nineto Lezcano needs to get his shit together (CW) Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:26 PM (#3096127)
It was a lot longer than it had to be, given the setup - they all took turns phrasing the same thought different ways. It would have been nice to see one person there advocating for PECOTA that could articulate a different viewpoint.

Nice production values, but not really compelling television. I hate programs like Around The Horn, but watching this is a great reminder of why networks like to book that sort of program; love it or hate it you feel something about it.
   14. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:34 PM (#3096131)
PECOTA's Youkilis projection would make you think that the guy had only hit over .288, 16 HRs and 83 RBI once in his career. This guy is an established stud with a long track record of great seasons, he's clearly going to only get BETTER at 30.
   15. Nineto Lezcano needs to get his shit together (CW) Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:39 PM (#3096135)
PECOTA's Youkilis projection would make you think that the guy had only hit over .288, 16 HRs and 83 RBI once in his career. This guy is an established stud with a long track record of great seasons, he's clearly going to only get BETTER at 30.


Most hitters don't get better at 30, they get worse. Without knowing the number of PAs PECOTA is projecting for Youk I can't really comment on his HR/RBI projections.
   16. HGM Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:52 PM (#3096147)
PECOTA's projection is 597 plate appearances, .275/.366/.475, 21 HR, 84 RBI

Perhaps a little low on the batting average, but I don't think it's a crazy improbable outcome.
   17. Best Regards, President of Comfort, Esq. Posted: March 08, 2009 at 11:53 PM (#3096149)
Most hitters don't get better at 30, they get worse.
I must be too subtle.
   18. The Voice of America Posted: March 09, 2009 at 12:00 AM (#3096156)
@#15: You have your sarcasm detector off today.
   19. Rough Carrigan Posted: March 09, 2009 at 12:43 AM (#3096198)
You have to understand. All his career, statistics said insulting things about Harold Reynolds. He's just indulging in reciprocity.
   20. bookbook Posted: March 09, 2009 at 01:36 AM (#3096241)
Nate's a TV personality now. Why didn't they have him on?
   21. MFS Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:16 AM (#3096303)
Man you're having a rough weekend on here Larry.

I get ya. ; )
   22. Sleepy supports unauthorized rambling Posted: March 09, 2009 at 04:48 AM (#3096480)
I'll be really, really shocked by an OBP under .370 for youkilis; for that to happen, imho, it would take some really bad BABIP luck, or a concerted effort by umpires/MLB to change the strike zone.
   23. PreservedFish Posted: March 09, 2009 at 05:00 AM (#3096494)
for that to happen, imho, it would take some really bad BABIP luck, or a concerted effort by umpires/MLB to change the strike zone.


This is a funny sentiment I've seen here a few times in the offseason. Predictions that certain things might happen, but only if the Gods of Strongly Luck Influenced Microstats conspire to allow it.
   24. jayjay Posted: March 09, 2009 at 06:15 AM (#3096510)
PECOTA's projection is 597 plate appearances, .275/.366/.475, 21 HR, 84 RBI
I'll be really, really shocked by an OBP under .370 for youkilis
So you wouldn't be "shocked" if his OBP was .370, but .366 yes? You're quibbling over what, a few less hits or walks?
   25. Right As Rain Posted: March 09, 2009 at 06:57 AM (#3096520)
I don't know why Rob Neyer has this reputation of being a "stats" guy. He's a decent writer, and a notch above Gammons who only knows how to use OPS in the proper context, but his analysis using progressive statistics is pretty limited.
   26. Gambling Rent Czar Posted: March 09, 2009 at 07:05 AM (#3096524)
Matty V. The voice of reason.
   27. MFS Posted: March 09, 2009 at 08:04 AM (#3096540)
#25, He doesn't have to do analysis. He just needs to have a basic understanding of what's going on to counter these jocks who clearly have no clue what PECOTA is and are rambling from the top of their heads. Ditto for someone like Gleeman or JoePoz.

The funny thing is that the Youk projection is exactly why we need PECOTA. It's easy to get excited about a likable guy like Youk and think he's gonna hit 40 bombs next year, but when you look at his age and track record you realize that PECOTA's projection looks pretty good. The point of statistical projections is that they can be a sobering reality.

And of course I am using "PECOTA" as just an example that could be replaced by ZiPS or CHONE or whatever.

Anyway, as easy as it is to bag on Reynolds and Casey, the dumbest part of the entire sequence sadly came from a guy I like: the Straw Hat question. What a pointless, meaningless, stupid question, designed to elicit exactly the response Matt knew it would.

Let's round up 3 ballplayers with the exact same opinions and ask them a banal question that we know their answer to. Great Television.
   28. hokieneer Posted: March 09, 2009 at 01:50 PM (#3096615)
Has anyone on this board ever thought PECOTA was the "gospel". It's just a tool, that is fairly accurate.
   29. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: March 09, 2009 at 01:59 PM (#3096627)
the Straw Hat question.

Typical tactic for a losing argument - building a Straw Hat Man.
   30. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:26 PM (#3096645)
I had no idea the "o" in PECOTA was a long o until that segment (assuming it's correct).
   31. SoSH U at work Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:38 PM (#3096653)
I had no idea the "o" in PECOTA was a long o until that segment (assuming it's correct).


How did you pronounce Bill's name?
   32. The District Attorney Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3096656)
Who doesn't make projections for players?? Everyone does -- I predict this guy will improve, that guy will fall off. It doesn't matter whether it's done mathematically; everyone should at least understand the concept of a projection. How could anyone with a functioning brain seriously believe that Silver/BP think the players are 100% bound to do whatever PECOTA predicts??? Good Lord.
   33. hokieneer Posted: March 09, 2009 at 02:39 PM (#3096657)
Did anybody else hear that idiot Woody Paige mention PECOTA on around the horn last week. He was talking about the loss of A-Rod for 2 months would only cost the Yankees 2 games, and he cited PECOTA as his source. But he managed to pronounce it about 7 different incorrect ways before the host corrected him.

It's nice to see BP getting some "mainstream" play, even if it's incorrectly pronounced and slammed. Might peak the curiosity of some smart people who have never heard of PECOTA or BP. That's assuming there is a person still in the intersecting sets of "smart baseball fans" and "oblivious to BP".
   34. Bad Doctor Posted: March 09, 2009 at 04:11 PM (#3096758)
One anchor, three ex-players, no diversity of viewpoints.

Wonder if a producer for the show has a diverging viewpoint, whichever one picked out the four projections for the panel to discuss. It was a bit of delicious irony to set up the anti-stats crowd to rail on how the numbers geeks are far too pessimistic on Kevin Youkilis, and only the gray-haired, stogie-smoking, straw hat-wearing crowd can appreciate him fully.
   35. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: March 09, 2009 at 04:24 PM (#3096770)
I thought Casey provided some balance to the opinions.

Agree that Reynolds was just mindnumbingly stupid.
   36. MFS Posted: March 09, 2009 at 06:36 PM (#3096900)
How did you pronounce Bill's name?


I would assume "rhymes with terra cotta."
   37. Repoz Posted: March 09, 2009 at 06:50 PM (#3096920)
That's assuming there is a person still in the intersecting sets of "smart baseball fans" and "oblivious to BP".

That shoots Madden down on both ends.

Impressive.

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