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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
The Mets have announced only that Martinez threw 77 pitches in a 4 1/3-inning appearance against a Cardinals team in an extended Spring Training game on Monday and that he will throw a bullpen session at Turner Field on Wednesday or Thursday. But last week the club was quite optimistic that Martinez would return before June 1. And the plan to have him throw before pitching coach Rick Peterson and manager Willie Randolph two or three days after his extended spring performance strongly suggests that he is close to a return.
Moreover, the scenario that is to unfold in Atlanta this week is quite similar to the one that played out late last summer prior to Martinez’s 2007 debut. Martinez threw a 64-pitch bullpen session in Turner Field on Sept. 1, and when it was complete, the Mets said that his next appearance would be either a start in Class A or a start in Cincinnati. Martinez returned from his 2006 rotator cuff surgery two days later and emerged as the winning pitcher in the Mets’ 10-4 victory against the Reds.
And then this happens…Pedro Martinez mulls retirement at end of season to tend to ailing father.
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1. Russlan will never be fond of Jason Bay Posted: May 20, 2008 at 08:02 PM (#2788064)Oh, wait...
Especially when he's topping out at 90 MPH.
Topping out at 90 MPH is more than enough stuff for Pedro.
Fangraphs has his average FB last year at 86.2 MPH. He had a 2.57 ERA with 32 K and 7 BB in 28 IP. And he allowed a 380 BABIP.
Of course, there couldn't be any relationship between these facts.
I'm sure there were. His LD% was something like 24.4%, so a 380 BABIP is probably a little high. But even assuming you're right, the point is he had a 2.57 ERA with that stuff. So I think thats plenty fastball for him.
Edit: I was trying to make the point that his 2.57 ERA wasn't because he got hit lucky.
I understand that; I didn't mean it like that, exactly.
What I tried to say (unsuccessfully) is that with pretty much the same stuff, last year he put up a 2.57 ERA, and it wasn't like he was getting hit lucky. If anything, he was probably a little unlucky. He did allow a LD% of 24.4% or something, which is really high but thats probably translates closer to a 360 BABIP than 380. But thats not really a huge deal.
I wasn't trying to say his stats would improve; anywhere close to a 2.57 ERA would be a huge boon to the Mets rotation.
No doubt. I was just saying that Coors isn't the best place to take a 90 MPH fastball. But then again, this is Pedro we're talking about, so I'm not sure what point I was trying to make.
Depends. If you believe that a pitcher has full control, relative to average, over his HR / FB rate, then no, Pedro's FIP was 1.84. OTOH, if you believe that a pitcher has zero control, relative to average, his HR / FB rate, then yes, Pedro's xFIP was 3.76.
He allowed zero home runs in 2007, HR / FB rate of 0%. League average is normally around 9-11%.
The last number of those is the most important - 28 innings pitched. Looking at things like BABIP over such a small sample size is basically futile, IMO; you don't have anywhere near enough information to glean anything out of that stat line other than "Pedro has a reasonable chance to be good again if he can stay healthy."
I can think of as many reasons Pedro is done (e.g. injuries taking over, desire to play/rehab could be fading, diminished velocity) as I can reasons he should do well this year (e.g. K/BB and K/BF still project well, he's shown the ability to successfully adapt to reduced velocity in the past, perhaps willing to lay it all out there this year if he knows his career is ending). I don't think anything from 10 IP, 11 ER to 130 IP with a 2.80 ERA over the next 4 months would really surprise me.
The guy had a better than 4 to 1 K to BB ratio last year. Yeah it was 28 IP, but he can certainly get hitters out throwing 87 MPH or so. Thats all I was trying to say. Whether or not he is healthy enough to do so is one thing, but the velocity will be enough.
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