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Thursday, February 27, 2014

Pedro Martinez thinks he ‘should have a shot’ at the Hall of Fame in 2015

Hell, everybody has a higher WAR than Tom Glaivine.

Pedro Martinez should be a first-ballot Hall of Famer when his name appears on the ballot for the first time next year.

He has a lower career ERA (2.93) than Greg Maddux, more strikeouts (3,154) than Sandy Koufax and a higher WAR (86.0) than Tom Glaivine. All of those pitchers were inducted on the first try.

Martinez, now a special assistant to Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, is confident, but not certain that he’ll get the news he’s looking for next year.

“I think I should have a shot but it’s not up to me,” he said Wednesday from the team’s spring training complex. “Like I said, it’s not up to me. I can only hope and wait.”

...He’ll learn his fate for the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown sometime early next year.

“I’m looking forward to that,” Martinez said. “There’s only so much I can do. As of now, I’m just like you, hoping and waiting to get another chance to actually make it back-to-back years. Boston, then the Hall of Fame.”

Repoz Posted: February 27, 2014 at 07:49 AM | 132 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hall of fame, red sox

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   101. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: February 28, 2014 at 12:59 AM (#4663941)
Mays got 94.7


Still my favourite statistic. 5% of voters looked at Mays name on the ballot and thought, nope not this year.
   102. bjhanke Posted: February 28, 2014 at 06:00 AM (#4663951)
I think Dean and Ali are a good comparison. They both made big boasts before they actually had to do anything, and then lived up to the boasts. Joe Namath made a big boast and won a Superbowl 16-7, IIRC. If you win a football game 16-7, and your opponent was the Johnny Unitas Colts, don't you think it's likely that the MVP of the game might be a defensive player - Mike Curtis or somebody? The big news about the GAME, instead of about Namath's mouth, was that they held Unitas to one touchdown.

The candidacies of Dean, Koufax and any others like them really boils down to your personal criteria. If you're into peaks, primes, and postseasons, then Dean and Koufax are easy ins. If you're into compiling career regular-season WAR, then they are probably easy outs. I'm in group 1, and occasionally vote for Dean in the HoM. But I know that there are other opinions, so I don't take his failure to get elected personally. - Brock Hanke
   103. Sunday silence Posted: February 28, 2014 at 08:11 AM (#4663962)

He's 17th in career WAR for pitchers on bbref and 16th on Fangraphs. That seems pretty good.


WHere are you getting this from? He's 142nd on WAR according to baseballreference.com see here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_pitch_career.shtml
   104. Sunday silence Posted: February 28, 2014 at 08:29 AM (#4663964)
The big news about the GAME, instead of about Namath's mouth, was that they held Unitas to one touchdown.


This is kind of a really odd statement because Unitas did not enter the game until there was only 13 min 10 sec left. He immediately moved them 48 yards when Beverly INT in the end zone. THe next drive he moves them 80 yards for a TD; the next drive with 3 min. left he moves them 20+ yards and they run out of downs.

THe feeling I get is that with Unitas in their they probably win the game, they certainly make it closer; aside from Morral's weirdness Unitas would have got them first downs and the Jets were just killing them with long possessions in the second half. It would have been a very different game.

I dont really think anyone was writing about how great they did against Unitas after the game,but I was only 5 so maybe they did.
   105. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 28, 2014 at 09:16 AM (#4663970)
WHere are you getting this from? He's 142nd on WAR according to baseballreference.com see here:


He's talking about Pedro not Dean.
   106. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: February 28, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4663996)
Unitas was injured during the entire 1968 regular season, and played only bits of 5 games, with 11 completions and 2 TDs but 4 interceptions. Morrall had been their quarterback all year, and even though his numbers were distinctly caretakerish, the Colts had gone 13-1 behind him and and had just stomped the Browns by 34-0 in the NFL championship game. In hindsight, Shula would have been better off taking the gamble and going with the rusty Unitas against the Jets, but at the time the choice of Morrall seemed pretty obvious.

Ironically, a similar decision confronted Shula again in 1972 when he was coaching the Dolphins, when Bob Griese broke his ankle in the 5th game and missed the entire rest of the regular season. And who filled in for Griese and kept the Dolphins undefeated in their record breaking year?

Earl Morrall.

And when the Dolphins got to the playoffs, Morrall also started (and won) the first round game against the Browns, and started the AFC championship game against the Steelers. But when the Dolphins offense stalled in the first half, Morrall was replaced in the second half by Griese, who led two touchdown drives for the win. And when the Super Bowl came around, Shula had seen the light and let Morrall sit on the bench.
   107. BDC Posted: February 28, 2014 at 10:50 AM (#4664021)
The five most similar careers to Pedro Martinez's, in terms of GS and ERA+:

Player             WAR  GS ERA+   G  CG   W SV     IP
Lefty Grove      110.0 457  148 616 298 300 55 3940.2
Pedro Martinez    85.9 409  154 476  46 219  3 2827.1
Carl Hubbell      67.8 433  130 535 260 253 33 3590.1
Roy Halladay      65.6 390  131 416  67 203  1 2749.1
Hal Newhouser     60.4 374  130 488 212 207 26 2993.0
Whitey Ford       53.9 438  133 498 156 236 10 3170.1 


IOW there isn't a career remotely similar. Koufax was about as effective overall (career ERA+ 131) as Hubbell, Halladay, and Newhouser – and before anyone objects, those are three great pitchers, no harm to be compared to any of them. Koufax of course had a tremendous peak. But Koufax made a lot fewer career starts (just 314).

Grove gets closer than anyone else: longer career, completed six times as many games, pitched more in relief, and was nearly as effective. The well-known doubts about whether Grove was quite as good as he seemed, given the way the talent in his league was so imbalanced, are perhaps enough to move him and Martinez closer together in career worth than face value might indicate. But both seem inner-circly enough even at the most skeptical evaluation.
   108. GregD Posted: February 28, 2014 at 11:04 AM (#4664028)
The well-known doubts about whether Grove was quite as good as he seemed, given the way the talent in his league was so imbalanced, are perhaps enough to move him and Martinez closer together in career worth than face value might indicate.
Has the tide turned against Grove to that degree? I thought the point was that he probably wasn't the single-greatest pitcher who ever lived, not that he was still inner-circly.

Don't people still put Grove in the top 10 pitchers ever? Don't a decent number of people still have him in the top 5?
   109. Moeball Posted: February 28, 2014 at 04:50 PM (#4664262)
One of those second-place finishes seemed particularly egregious: In 2002, he lost to the 23-win Zito despite having a lower ERA and more strikeouts. Even if you can argue that Zito deserved the award for pitching less spectacularly in 30 more innings, that fails to explain the five voters who gave Martinez and his 20-4 record, 2.26 ERA and 239 K in 199.1 IP third-place votes that season.


On a side note, come to think of it Zito was a part of the whole "Moneyball" thing although he didn't get mentioned as much as some other stuff. The book talked mostly about the approach to hitting and getting more patient hitters at the plate, but probably a bigger impact on the team was the change in approach to building a pitching staff. There's the scene where Billy goes ballistic because the scout wants to draft flamethrower pitchers out of high school despite a historically poor track record for those kinds of draft picks. My Padres were a classic example of other teams getting duped by not willing to adapt like the A's were. Zito was a high school prospect down here in the Padres' own back yard, so they saw him pretty much before any other teams did - but their scouts said to stay away from him because he didn't have the kind of fastball they were looking for. No, he hasn't had a great career, but Oakland did get several pretty good years out of him that the Padres' scouts didn't think were possible...because he didn't "look" like a big league pitcher.

Just one more reason the A's (and Tampa and some others as well) continue to put better teams on the field than the Padres do, despite not having NY or Boston sized payrolls. It's not necessarily how much you spend, it's how you spend it, and the Padres front office constantly looks like a ship without a rudder.
   110. Moeball Posted: February 28, 2014 at 05:11 PM (#4664274)
Every era has a group of super-talented guys at a certain position it seems.
1990/2000's: pitching with Clemens/Johnson/Maddux/Martinez
1970/80's: 3B with Schmidt/Brett/Boggs (arguably the best 3 ever to that point)
1950/60's: OF with Mantle/Mays/Aaron/Robinson


People were wondering if it was coincidence to have 4 all-time great pitchers at a time when hitting was running rampant - so I thought, what about the last time baseball was in such a hitting-heavy environment? Who were the pitchers - and how many - that really stuck out as spectacular at that time?

Looking at the '20s-'30s time frame, Lefty Grove (61 pitching WAR) goes to the head of the class by a sizeable margin over Carl Hubbell (39 pWAR) - and Hubbell also seems head and shoulders above the rest of the crowd. These two were able to keep their ERAs down when most other pitchers were giving up 5 runs/game. Maybe you could throw Dazzy Vance in there as well at a little bit lower level(29+)? It certainly doesn't look as stacked as the 1990s-2000s period does. Between 1990-2009 you've got the Big 4 all over 50+, with Schilling, Glavine, Mussina, Smoltz and Brown in the 30s. That's 9 guys with over 30 pWAR, and in the 1920-1939 period there were only 2. That's a big difference. Something unusual was happening in the recent vintage of high-scoring years that was enabling a select group of pitchers to still perform at a very high level that wasn't happening the last time hitters took over the game. I'm open to theories.
   111. GuyM Posted: February 28, 2014 at 05:39 PM (#4664284)
That's a big difference. Something unusual was happening in the recent vintage of high-scoring years

I don't see a big difference. Selecting for starters with at least 1,000 IP in those years, and looking at ERA+, we get:
1920-39:
130/above 4
120/above 14
115/above 25

1990-2009:
130/above 9
120/above 25
115/above 36

Given that MLB is nearly twice as large today, seems like very similar distributions. There were a few more guys in the modern era who managed to combine great performance with durability, but that's probably just chance. Anything else is likely an artifact of how WAR is calculated.
   112. bjhanke Posted: February 28, 2014 at 05:43 PM (#4664285)
I worded my Namath comment very badly, for which I apologize. I was aware that Unitas had only played the second half (although I did not remember that it was only about a quarter). What I SHOULD have written would read more like this: The Colts had a highly effective offense (see the 34 points against the Browns) because there were two minds working out it: the coach's and Unitas'. Johnny was, in this way, like Peyton Manning (although Unitas was a nastier person). He was more than just the guy who executed the offense, he was in charge of it during the game and worked on the design phase with the coaches in ways that most quarterbacks don't do because they're not natural born offensive coaches like Peyton and Johnny were/are. Earl Morill, who played most of the game, wasn't some cheesy last-ditch QB. He was a solid veteran, probably better than several starting QBs in the league. And he knew the Colts' offense very well. And he could not score on the Jets' defense at all, possibly because he could not make the quality of in-game decisions that Johnny could. But even when the Colts turned to Unitas in desperation, Unitas did score once, but was also intercepted. That, again, says a good thing about the Jets' defense. I really don't see how your offense can score 16 whole points, while your defense holds a fine offensive team to 7, and have an offensive player be the game's MVP. One thing that may make more sense of why the MVP voters chose Namath is that none of the Jets' defenders stood out from the team as a whole, at least that I can remember. I used Mike Curtis' name, although Curtis was actually the Colts' middle linebacker, because I could not come up with a name of a Jets' defender. I'm sure there's some names that, now, I'd recognize, but at the time, it was a no-name defense to me. I was 20 years old at the time. But my point remains the same. It's the Superbowl. You can pretty much assume that your opponent can play both offense and defense. If you hold a team of that caliber to 7 points, I don't care what the name of your QB was, someone on your defense should be the game MVP.

The same principle applies, I think, to Tom Brady's being given the game MVP for the win over STL in that Superbowl (forgot the exact year). IIRC, The Patriots scored 23 points. 7 were on a Ty Law pick-six (my opinion is that Law should have been the MVP). 7 were on a Brady fumble, forced by Ray Lewis, that took a straight-ahead bounce and ended up in the end zone in the hands of a Patriot, which is a worst-possible scenario for your defensive end getting to the QB just as he's trying to pass. That's just luck, and it was the score that decided the game. That's 14 points out of 23, leaving 9 points, three field goals, to credit to Brady himself. Brady was not the MVP of that game. - Brock
   113. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: February 28, 2014 at 05:53 PM (#4664290)
Ray Lewis and Brady have never played against each other in the Super Bowl.
   114. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: February 28, 2014 at 05:59 PM (#4664296)
Ray Lewis and Brady have never played against each other in the Super Bowl.


I thought maybe Brock was conflating his manslaughtery defensive players, but it appears that Leonard Little did not force any Brady fumbles in that Super Bowl (nor did anyone else).

   115. bjhanke Posted: March 01, 2014 at 10:22 AM (#4664422)
Oh, hell. Having the memory of a 66-year old is a pain, and mine is particularly getting bad at names (which psychologists say is usually the first memory set to weaken with age). Yes, I was thinking about Leonard Little, not Ray Lewis, who played in Indy on Peyton Manning's teams, right? But the play I'm pretty sure of. It's the last score the Patriots made. I have a VERY serious visual memory of the defensive left end (whoever he was) getting to Brady as he was about to throw and the ball just bounding into the end zone. But I'm 66. Does anyone know where I can find film to look at and get my facts straight, or at least a summary in detail? I've been carrying this memory around ever since Brady was announced as the MVP. Please tell me that it was the Patriots and Tom Brady, and that Ty Law did do a pick-six. If not, I have ZERO idea what I'm talking about. - Brock
   116. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: March 01, 2014 at 10:27 AM (#4664423)
Ray Lewis, who played in Indy on Peyton Manning's teams, right?


No. He played in Baltimore, the city where Peyton Manning's former franchise once played, but for the team that used to play in Cleveland.
   117. bjhanke Posted: March 01, 2014 at 10:32 AM (#4664425)
I found a source. I had almost no idea what I was talking about. Ty Law did do a pick-six, but the Cardinals performed all the turnovers. The Cards scored a TD to Ricky Proehl with 1:30 left in the game to tie it at 17 and Brady, with no timeouts, got the Pats into field-goal range, and won the game with the kick 20-17 (I even had the score wrong). The late drive was probably what got Brady the MVP. Thanks to all of you who called me on this. I really hate having my sports memories wrong. I guarantee that I will NEVER get this one wrong again. - Brock
   118. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: March 01, 2014 at 10:39 AM (#4664428)
I guarantee that I will NEVER get this one wrong again. - Brock


You might want to rethink this promise...

Like many other St. Louisans born in the early 1900s, your Cards hightailed it to the desert when they hit old age.
   119. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: March 01, 2014 at 11:29 AM (#4664440)
Ray Lewis, who played in Indy on Peyton Manning's teams, right?


No. He played in Baltimore, the city where Peyton Manning's former franchise once played, but for the team that used to play in Cleveland.

Of course you now have to point out that Payton Manning's former team was the one that had previously arrived in Baltimore via Brooklyn, Boston, New York and Dallas, and not the one that came to Charm City from Miami, the hapless team whose only accomplishment of note was that it bequeathed our current Super Bowl champions their nickname, before moving to Baltimore and losing to Buffalo and blowing the chance to pull the Upset of the Century by beating the Browns in the title game. It's really not that complicated.
   120. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: March 01, 2014 at 11:40 AM (#4664446)

Of course you now have to point out that Payton Manning's former team was the one that had previously arrived in Baltimore via Brooklyn, Boston, New York and Dallas, and not the one that came to Charm City from Miami, the hapless team whose only accomplishment of note was that it bequeathed our current Super Bowl champions their nickname, before moving to Baltimore and losing to Buffalo and blowing the chance to pull the Upset of the Century by beating the Browns in the title game. It's really not that complicated.


In that case, it's probably worth noting that the man who spirited the Colts out of Baltimore was in the position to screw the people of Balmer after swapping franchises with the guy who owned the team that later bolted Los Angeles for St. Louis, where they would later lose to New England in the Super Bowl that started Brock's confusion in the first place.

   121. cardsfanboy Posted: March 01, 2014 at 11:48 AM (#4664447)
You might want to rethink this promise...

Like many other St. Louisans born in the early 1900s, your Cards hightailed it to the desert when they hit old age.


I'm seriously hoping he did that on purpose.

   122. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: March 01, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4664462)
Of course you now have to point out that Payton Manning's former team was the one that had previously arrived in Baltimore via Brooklyn, Boston, New York and Dallas, and not the one that came to Charm City from Miami, the hapless team whose only accomplishment of note was that it bequeathed our current Super Bowl champions their nickname, before moving to Baltimore and losing to Buffalo and blowing the chance to pull the Upset of the Century by beating the Browns in the title game. It's really not that complicated.

In that case, it's probably worth noting that the man who spirited the Colts out of Baltimore was in the position to screw the people of Balmer after swapping franchises with the guy who owned the team that later bolted Los Angeles for St. Louis, where they would later lose to New England in the Super Bowl that started Brock's confusion in the first place.


Yeah, but if it hadn't been for that playboy owner who skipped for La-La Land just a few weeks after his team had won the championship, the man who scared off John Elway wouldn't have been interested in buying the swap bait in the first place, and the Curse of 1948 would've returned to kibosh the Brady Bunch in the Super Bowl.
   123. bjhanke Posted: March 01, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4664477)
"You might want to rethink this promise..."

Oh, no. I am thoroughly embarrassed. I'll remember this one. Now I have to find out what game it was that I was watching when I saw Leonard Little blow by a tackle, reach the QB just as he was pulling his arm back and forced the fumble which bounced into the end zone, winning a game. LSD or no LSD, that memory is too visual and too exact to never have happened. I just don't know what game it might have been. - Brock
   124. cardsfanboy Posted: March 01, 2014 at 01:26 PM (#4664480)
Oh, no. I am thoroughly embarrassed. I'll remember this one. Now I have to find out what game it was that I was watching when I saw Leonard Little blow by a tackle, reach the QB just as he was pulling his arm back and forced the fumble which bounced into the end zone, winning a game


In the NFL you can't fumble a ball forward and recover it as a touchdown. (In the 70's you can, but they changed that rule because of the Raiders and Plunkett fumbling a ball forward)

Edit: reading the rules more, that only applies to two minute warning plays or fourth down..
   125. BDC Posted: March 01, 2014 at 01:51 PM (#4664500)
he man who spirited the Colts out of Baltimore was in the position to screw the people of Balmer after swapping franchises with the guy who owned the team that later bolted Los Angeles for St. Louis, where they would later lose to New England

This kind of thing is why I've never shifted my rooting allegiance away from the Decatur Staleys.
   126. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: March 01, 2014 at 02:02 PM (#4664508)

In the NFL you can't fumble a ball forward and recover it as a touchdown. (In the 70's you can, but they changed that rule because of the Raiders and Plunkett fumbling a ball forward)

Stabler
   127. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: March 01, 2014 at 03:07 PM (#4664542)
This kind of thing is why I've never shifted my rooting allegiance away from the Decatur Staleys.

Yeah, those Monsters of the Midway are a bunch of parvenus.

Me, I'm an Oorang Indians diehard. As far as they were concerned, the only good Staley was a dead Staley.
   128. Walt Davis Posted: March 01, 2014 at 06:18 PM (#4664641)
CFB in #94 ... note the sentence I was responding to suggested Koufax's total as a guide for Pedro in a "normal year." Johnson and the crowded ballot might keep Pedro in Koufax's range (I still expect 90%+ ... OK maybe 89%+) but in a "normal year" Pedro is easily the best candidate on the ballot and cruises in comfortably over 90%.

Last year was probably quite indicative. Glavine still pulled 91%+ even with Maddux near unanimous and Thomas easily sailing over. Johnson won't do as well as Maddux but I don't expect Smoltz to come close to eating up Thomas's total so, if anything, there should be more votes available for Pedro.

That said it's mainly a question of whether that 8% of weirdos that didn't vote Glavine think Pedro was more deserving and are there folks who had Glavine just over the border who don't think Pedro made it.

But 3 CYA titles (+ 2 seconds, a third and a fourth), 5 ERA titles, 3000 Ks, a >2/1 win % and even won 20 twice and struck out 300 twice. "Nobody" is going to be talking about his short career except in the tragic sense that injury robbed us of a great pitcher.
   129. #6bid is partially elite Posted: March 01, 2014 at 06:39 PM (#4664649)
No, he [Zito] hasn't had a great career, but Oakland did get several pretty good years out of him that the Padres' scouts didn't think were possible


Zito had 31 bb-ref WAR in 7 years with the A's. That's 7 years of All-Star performance. Most teams would be very happy with such production from a draft pick.

(Most teams would not be very happy with Zito's 3 bb-ref WAR in 7 years with the Giants. Even if they didn't have to pay $126,000,000 for it.)
   130. bobm Posted: March 02, 2014 at 01:27 AM (#4664757)
[76.] Meanwhile, color me as another who is skeptical of the very high ERA+'s put up in the steroid era. Z-scores is a much better way to make comparisons of extreme environments.

To look at annual z-scores for 1963-1966 Koufax and 1997-2000 Pedro, I calculated average and standard deviation for ERA and ERA+ for each season, using the subset of pitchers with minimum 35 IP in a given season.

Of their combined 8 seasons, Pedro has 3 of the 4 highest annual Z-scores for both ERA and ERA+, albeit in significantly fewer innings.

     
        Player Year     IP    ERA ERA Z  ERA+  ERA+ Z
  Sandy Koufax 1963  311.0   1.88  1.69   159    1.76 
  Sandy Koufax 1964  223.0   1.74  1.86   186    2.04 
  Sandy Koufax 1965  335.2   2.04  1.55   160    1.80 
  Sandy Koufax 1966  323.0   1.73  1.93   190    2.93 
     
Pedro Martinez 1997  241.1   1.90  1.99   219    3.20 
Pedro Martinez 1998  233.2   2.89  1.19   163    1.39 
Pedro Martinez 1999  213.1   2.07  1.98   243    3.83 
Pedro Martinez 2000  217.0   1.74  2.27   291    5.38

   131. bjhanke Posted: March 02, 2014 at 05:55 AM (#4664768)
I remember the brouhaha over Stabler - or at least, I think I do - but the issue there was more specific. Basically, whenever Stabler was caught scrambling behind the line of scrimmage, he'd essentially throw an underhand pass right at one of his players, designed to bounce one or two times before it got to the other player. He was doing this routinely, and the league got fed up with it. What I THINK I remember (and my football memory reputation has to be at an all-time low right now) is that the action the league took was to prohibit this UNLESS a defensive player made contact with your body, forcing the fumble. That is, you cannot deliberately fumble forward, but if a defensive end strips you of the ball, it goes where it goes, no foul. But right now, when it comes to football, I'm not guaranteeing any memories other than the Patriot/Cardinal Superbowl, which I read about yesterday. I think I remember at this year's Superbowl, announcers repeating endlessly that Peyton Manning had had troubles in postseason games before, and I think I remember that he started the game trying to throw his normal assortment of passes, only to find that the longer ones were sailing on him (which might be due to a cold football being harder than a warm one), or at least that's what it looked like to me. And I also think I remember that after the first quarter, Peyton was reduced to little short flare passes and the running game, and Seattle's defense had no problems destroying that. But hell, what do I know? That might have been a SB from the 1960s, and I might be thinking about Bobby Layne. - Brock
   132. toratoratora Posted: March 02, 2014 at 10:33 AM (#4664786)
BobM-Thanks
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