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1. Rants Mulliniks (formerly Cold Prosimian) Posted: December 02, 2009 at 09:21 PM (#3401470)Just cause Robby is Jones' closest comp doesn't mean that they have extremely similar stats (which they don't). In fact, nobody really resembles Andruw at the bat.
While the R/HR/RBI totals are close, Frank is up in OPS+ by 150 to 116 at that age.
No he effing wasn't.
Jones came up early, played a lot, got a lot of PAs, in a high offense era, and hence compiled a ton more HRs and RBIs by age 29 than someone of his caliber ordinarily would, look up total HRs and RBIS by age 29- centered on Andruw, and the list will fall into two groups
A: Andruw Jones
B: A bunch of much better hitters than Andruw Jones.
As a hitter Jones was a hell of a lot closer to Dave Kingman than F Robbie
You want hitting comps through age 29?:
Rk Player OPS+ ISO PA To From Age G1 Bobby Higginson 120 .208 3432 1995 2000 24-29 825
2 Raul Mondesi 120 .220 4191 1993 2000 22-29 1012
3 Nate Colbert 120 .208 3808 1966 1975 20-29 988
4 Jesse Barfield 118 .212 4398 1981 1989 21-29 1161
5 Bobby Thomson 118 .208 4393 1946 1953 22-29 1054
6 Eric Chavez 117 .217 5156 1998 2007 20-29 1256
7 Pat Burrell 117 .221 4145 2000 2006 23-29 994
8 Geoff Jenkins 117 .228 3295 1998 2004 23-29 807
9 Tino Martinez 117 .212 3495 1990 1997 22-29 856
10 Adam LaRoche 116 .217 3230 2004 2009 24-29 838
11 Andruw Jones 116 .238 6617 1996 2006 19-29 1607
12 Dave Kingman 116 .253 3385 1971 1978 22-29 917
13 Nick Swisher 115 .215 3119 2004 2009 23-28 761
14 Carlos Beltran 115 .211 5178 1998 2006 21-29 1176
15 Paul Konerko 115 .209 4479 1997 2005 21-29 1123
16 Ron Gant 115 .204 3546 1987 1993 22-28 858
17 Sammy Sosa 114 .229 5096 1989 1998 20-29 1247
18 Richard Hidalgo 113 .224 3588 1997 2004 22-29 899
19 Javy Lopez 113 .209 3006 1992 2000 21-29 790
20 Lance Parrish 113 .205 4300 1977 1985 21-29 1055
21 Aramis Ramirez 111 .217 4838 1998 2007 20-29 1179
22 Carlos Lee 111 .204 4334 1999 2005 23-29 1042
23 Brad Fullmer 111 .207 3065 1997 2004 22-29 807
24 Alfonso Soriano 110 .220 3490 1999 2005 23-29 802
25 Joe Carter 110 .200 3545 1983 1989 23-29 862
Rk Player OPS+ ISO PA To From Age G
Jones' raw numbers dwarfs the rest of the group due to his enormous PT advantage
He was never, ever, close to the Mays/F Robbie class.
Acknowledging that this is not a fair way to represent Andruw's value as a ballplayer, if this were even close to true, Andruw would definitely be a HOFer right?
Do you mean: with the early success and insane dropoff at age 30? His narrative might be unique, but in terms of ability there are tons of good comparisons, and they have names like Jenkins and Dye and Mondesi, as opposed to Snider/Robinson
Look again, every single player on that list is a SIGNIFICANTLY better hitter than Andruw, with the sole exception of Beltran.
Andruw's peak OPS+ was 136, 4 of those guys averaged better than that, everyone else has a higher peak.
He was an everyday player at age 20, and he played almost every day thereafter through age 29, that gave him a huge counting stats boost.
Oh, I certainly don't mean that I believe he has been a great hitter, PF, though the combination of his offensive and defensive talents at his peak, as well as his durability during his twenties, surely suggested a future HOFer.
Possibly, even I'll admit that he had, at his peak, more defensive value than any of those guys I listed in post #5, but he didn't keep that defensive value.
Jones' problem now, is that the HOF voters have shown zero ability to reocognize that CF is a defesnive position or that CFs tend on average to post OPS+s about 10-15 points below that of LFs or RFs
Your average (median) starting LF or RF is going to post a 112-115 OPS+, the median CF is going to be around 100, a player who was a GG caliber CF fro most of his career and a 110-115 OPS+ hitter in some 10,000 PAs is certainly a better player/HOF candidate than, oh, Jim Rice...
Put Jones in Robinson's environment and he'd produce stats far more similar to someone like Don Lock. Now, hitting like Don Lock is good hitting, but it's miles short of Frank Robinson. And hitting like Don Lock while playing a world-class-brilliant CF, and doing it with tremendous durability for a decade is a damn fine career -- but it's highly questionable whether it's a HOF-worthy career.
Like nearly every other player, Andruw's HOF case will be determined by what he does in his 30s. So far he's, shall we say, not off to a good start.
You mean his age, or his waist?
I don't think there's any doubt about the waist, so he must be talking age.
Jones' career would make a ton more sense if he lied about his age by about 3 years.
It sure would, though his simultaneous offensive, defensive, and durability face-plant over 2006-2008 would stand out as historically extraordinary at any age.
But in the "it would make a lot more sense if he was a few years older than listed" category, he joins a long and distinguished line: Edgardo Alfonzo, Carlos Baerga, Cesar Cedeno, Vada Pinson, Floyd Robinson, Whitey Lockman ...
Before his 30th birthday, Alex Rodriguez had hit over 400 HR, played in 9 All Star games, won 2 MVPs (and deserved 4 more), won 2 Gold Gloves, and, at one point or another, led the league in every offensive category worth a damn other than triples, walks, SBs, and OBP.
how about this guy
and this
guy
or even better this guy
and even this guy
if you want to look at BA-HR-RBI
Hmmm? I don't like this comparison.
At age 29 Andruw Jones was already being discussed as a "compiler." In the sense of: well, he's not really that great anymore, but his counting numbers will be so huge that he will coast into the Hall anyway.
Jones seemed like a future HOFer in his early 20s because he had the extraordinary defense and we assumed that his bat was going to develop. But it never did develop, and his fielding fell off.
Just fantastic.
And I agree with #11 above; if Dave Kingman was an elite defensive center fielder he'd be in the HOF today.
Carlos: 150, 143, 132, 132, 129, 125, 122, 114, 100
Andruw: 136, 127, 126, 125, 117, 116, 113, 112, 100
Carlos: 150, 143, 132, 132, 129, 125, 122, 114, 100
Andruw: 136, 127, 126, 125, 117, 116, 113, 112, 100
or...
Edmonds: 170, 160, 158, 149, 146, 137, 137, 129, 123, 123
(and the first six of those for Edmonds were consecutive years--and all 10 were in an 11-yr span)
And a weird power surge at age 30...
But since the defensive metrics now still have some rough spots, those then aren't necessarily bullet proof.
If you take Edmonds' glove at face value and don't penalize him for some sort of 'roid assumption, he looks like an easy HOFer to me. I personally don't care about the latter, but the former is questionable.
Or just re-establish a functioning veterans committee.
How do we know that Andruw hasn't already entered his 40s?
You mean his age, or his waist?
Primey nomination. Very good.
Having to wait 19 years for the VC to get you in isn't much of a remedy.
Actually, Murphy's sudden decline was quite "explicable".
It was the 12 knee surgeries (only the last of which was arthroscopic) which left him playing quite literally on his last legs at a much too early age. The constant bone-on-bone contact left him with an all-arms swing that robbed him of his power and the ability to make consistent contact.
Essentially done at 32, though he hung around for a few more years...
What is crazy is that for the year's we have both, Total Zone doesn't like Andruw as much as UZR (fangraphs version, at least), so he might have been even better.
Like Murphy, anything resembling a regular decline phase would have probably led to him coasting in. I think Andruw's knees aren't what they used to be, again echoing Murphy.
Yeah, well.
Andruw Jones (1997-2006):
1576 G, 6504 PA, .268/.346/.506/.852, 117 OPS+, 130/53 SB/CS, 142 GIDP, +180 runs (B-R Total Zone numbers) in CF, 58.5 WAR
Ichiro (2001-2009):
1426 G, 6607 PA, .333/.378/.434/.811, 118 OPS+, 341/79 SB/CS, 43 GIDP, +73 runs (B-R Total Zone numbers) primarily in RF, 45.3 WAR (+2009)
As to possible reasons why people don't think of Andruw as a Hall of Famer:
1) People have a hard time putting the numbers to just how awesome Andruw was in the field (5 straight years of +25 defense in CF, and 5 more at +15? That's just silly).
2) Because people here tend to obsess over OBP, and his was nothing special (0.338 vs. league of 0.344).
3) Because he tanked at a (relatively) young age, he's viewed as a disappointment, and he's not likely to further add to his case.
4) Because, even though we should know better, we still tend to compare CFs offensively with corner OF.
5) Because, deep down inside, a lot of us still like counting stats.
Using WAR, he's firmly in the range at which he should be considered as an extremely serious Hall of Fame candidate, and a better one at this point in time than Ichiro (although in my opinion, Ichiro is likely to surpass Jones' career total before he retires).
Is this a suggestion that he wasn't actually the age he said he was? That's rather far-fetched in my opinion. Curacao is not the Dominican Republic (the DR is really the only Latin American country with this pervasive problem; and Curacao is controlled by the Dutch, to boot), and Andruw was clearly but a lad when he made the majors.
If that's not what you meant, then my apologies.
Ah, the vagaries of HOF standards.
Well, remember that many people see Ichiro as having played 18 years. That would make a difference, right?
I think he was talking about those people that concentrate on Ichiro's! ML numbers exclusively.
And Ichiro does have an 18 year career, dammit!
Can we get a thread going about this?
Heh.
I was obviously not thinking clearly, but still, the list is few. Another one was Jimmie Foxx, who could have hit 800 HRs with a normal decline.
Why? Plenty of guys had to wait for the VC. I don't see the difference between waiting 19 years for the BBWAA to vote you in (like Rice) and waiting 20 for the VC. The vast majority of guys will be alive 20 years after their careers end.
EDIT: And Ichiro.
One fact that Dag Nabbit likes to mention (and which I find stunning) is that more votes have been cast by the BBWAA for RP than for CFs. The BBWAA minimum standards for CF have been absolutely ridiculous - the complete list elected by them reads like a list of inner circle quality HoFers (and Puckett): Mays, Mantle, Dimaggio, Cobb, Speaker, Snider, Puckett.
So basically, you have to be able to handle CF, and hit like a superstar corner OF or 1B to be considered worthy of the HoF by the BBWAA (or be Puckett who, while damn good, is nowhere near the rest of this group). Despite doing both, Snider still had to wait for 16 years after he retired to gain election.
The Greenberg example might have more force if Andruw had gone to fight in Afghanistan. Actually, there's an idea - I'd support his HOF candidacy if he could go over and, say, eat the Taliban.
24 years then (I meant 19 years after they're one and done). Point is, expansion has rendered the voting parameters as too restrictive, given the larger pool of arguable candidates about to come along; someone who may have hung around at 20%, slowly building momentum over time, will, starting in 2013, likely not even get to 5% and then begins the long wait I mentioned.
You left out one: a lot of us agree with Chris Dial that Andrew's defensive WAR aren't real.
Not knowing Chris' position on Andruw's defense, that possibility didn't occur to me.
Out of curiosity, how big is the difference between Chris' evaluations of Andruw's defense, and the TotalZone numbers on B-R?
I think the problem comes down to the fact that CF's used to hit better than RF/LF, and now they're quite a bit worse. I don't know why, but I imagine this has got the BBWAA hung up.
Why could Mays, Mantle, DiMaggio, Cobb, Speaker and Snider put up those offensive numbers in CF but now nobody seems able to? If anything CF used to be a more demanding defensive position, which the much larger OFs (particularly to dead center) in the old-style ballparks and 1960's multi-purpose stadiums.
Is it just a drought caused by a few guys flaming out early (Murphy, Bernie Williams)? Are guys who would have been CF's b/c of their size now playing in the IF (Jeter, ARod)?
I'm assuming this to mean that it took relief pitchers (Wilhelm, Fingers, Sutter, Gossage, Eck, and guys like Smith on the outside) much longer to get in than the center fielders, and thus guys like Goose and Sutter ended up with more total votes than Willie and Ty. Still out of whack (since I wouldn't have voted for any of them but Wilhelm), but it does seem a bit misleading when phrased that way.
It's both that, and a matter of timing of arrival on the ballot - most relief pitchers have only come on to the ballot at a time when the number of voters was fairly large, and when there were few credible CF candidates. Even if the RP get a lower percentage of the votes while failing to gain induction, he can still end up with more total votes than some early CFs were elected with.
So there's roughly a 14 win gap in his thin years between your evaluations, and the Total Zone numbers listed on B-R, which would (replacing only those) reduce Andruw's career WAR down to roughly 43 for his 10 year period, which is a much, much more marginal area for HoF consideration.
As a follow up, and realising that you're at work and may not have access to all your data, would you be willing to offer a guess as to why there's such a large difference between the two defensive evaluation systems on Andruw's defense (even though I'm pretty sure you've already explained the differences to me in a previous thread, and I've just forgotten)?
EDIT: And it looks like you've already answered a big part of my question, with your (p)response in #63.
Good point, which makes it even less stunning.
Well, I still find it surprising, given the relative number of CFs who end up on the Hall ballot, as opposed to the number of RP who end up on the ballot, and their relative importance in terms of team success. It just seems like the BBWAA has been either badly underestimating the value of CF candidates, or (more likely) badly overestimating the value of RP candidates.
EDIT: Although, looking at the CF candidates from the last 30 years or so, there really haven't been many credible CF candidates to make the ballot - Puckett, Dawson, and a bunch coming in over the next 5 to 10 years in Beltran, Bernie, Edmonds, Griffey, and so on.
Oh, no doubt about both of those (particularly the latter). But it doesn't come close to suggesting the BBWAA has valued relievers over CFers, as the raw numbers might lead one to believe.
Not. What "unimpeachable peak"? He was great defensively, but was never all that great offensively. Even his career year that everyone went crazy over because of the 51 home runs produced just a 136 OPS+.
If you give him huge credit for defense there are 8 seasons that fit ok into a HOF career. And nothing else.
Any HOF chance he had was always mostly about bulk numbers, and once he got old and lost it all in one season (paging John DiFool), that chance disappeared. And it's not coming back.
Yes. I think the interesting question is why has the level of play of the top CFs dropped off so much.
Prior to 1970 there were 10 CF's who exceed a 130 OPS+ (>5000 PAs, >60% Gs in CF): Mantle, Cobb, Mays, Speaker, DiMaggio, Hack Wilson, Snider, Berger, Doby and Averill. 7 of those (Snider and above) were over 140 OPS+.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/b8hB3
Since 1970 there have been 2 CFs over 130: Griffey and Edmonds. And they are at 136 (and falling) and 132. Zero CFs over 140.
http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/YvKcR
The standards haven't changed, the level of CF performance has.
I was going to ask this as well but didn't want it to seem like I was trying to start up another Ichiro thread.
Ichiro allegedly has great defense in RF. Andruw allegedly had great defense in CF. That's a big difference, and would seem to make up for any edge Ichiro has on offense.
No, since people like Andy think he's done enough solely in MLB to be inducted.
If you go by AROM's numbers for Jones in terms of both D and WAR (both available in #39), then he would be a very credible candidate.
EDIT: Like Ichiro, however, there is a very heavy dependance on the defensive evaluations. If Total Zone is right (+180), then Andruw is a very serious candidate, but if Chris' numbers are right (+10 combined for the thin/fat years, if I understood Chris' post #60 correctly), then he's at best marginal.
No prob. What I meant was what Mefisto says in #54. My apologies for being inarticulate.
Any ideas why this might be the case?
Robinson had a 142 OPS+ at age 20. Just amazing. I stand corrected.
Of course, Robinson, like Jones, was done at age 29. Just ask Bill DeWitt.
It's wild guess time!
In general, I'd propose something about the introduction and widespread adoption of Astroturf in the 60s and 70s putting a premium on defense and speed at the position - what might have been a single or possibly a double if missed by a CF in the 40s or 50s quickly turned into a guaranteed double and likely triple (or inside-the-parker) on Astroturf. I'd also guess something about the non-equal distrubtion of elite talent, and the highly-competetive nature of the 80s supressing extreme outliers in stats like OPS+ (based on my understanding of Dan R's work).
Hey now, better to trade 'em a decade too early than a decade too late!
But, most of the old parks (built in the teens and '20's) had CF's and power allies well over 400'. The average dead CF distance in the 20's-30's was over 450'.
Mantle and DiMaggio patrolled a home field with a LCF and CF aroun 460'. Mays had a LCF, CF and RCF all around 440-450' in the Polo Grounds. Cobb played in a Tiger Stadium with a 467' CF. Speaker played in a Fenway with a CF of 488' and League park with a CF/LCF area ranging from 420' to 505'.
That had to place a premium of CF defense as well.
My wild guess is a lot of the great athletes who now patrol the IF (especially SS, but also 2B/3B) would have been considered "too big" in the old days, and would have been converted to CF.
It's hard not to imagine guys like Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, and ARod playing SS if they came up in 1955. Even David Wright might have been moved off 3B prior to the 1950's. There were no big sluggers at 3B before Eddie Mathews. I imagine they all could have been very good CF's though.
As a quick question, earlier in the thread, you mentioned that CF used to outhit LF and RF. Would you happen to have the data to support the degree of thatt for the early part of the 20th century? I ask, only because the B-R league splits only provide tOPS+ information by position back to 1954 (and does show the general trend you mentioned of CF tOPS+ getting worse over time in relation to LF and RF), and I'm curious about just how big the difference was (and how badly the averages could have been skewed in the smaller 8-team leagues by the presence of a random clustering of multiple greats in a short periods - Mays/Mantle/Snider in the 50s and Cobb/Speaker in the 10s/20s).
I haven't the foggiest clue why that comparison would sound right to anyone who was not holding a crack pipe at the time.
It's hard not to imagine guys like Jeter, Hanley Ramirez, and ARod playing SS if they came up in 1955. Even David Wright might have been moved off 3B prior to the 1950's. There were no big sluggers at 3B before Eddie Mathews. I imagine they all could have been very good CF's though.
I share this wild guess. Through the 1960s or '70s, the best "big" athletes were put in CF or RF. Since then, they've tended to be put at SS or 3B. The infield's gain has been the outfield's loss.
1. Baseball-reference.com listed him as closest comp.
2. My memory of Jones and Robinson did not dovetail with their numbers, but more in line with the Baseball-reference.com comp.
3. As I said before, I stand corrected.
4. Stay classy, Ray DiPerna.
Sounds almost as insane as Frank Robinson in the other direction, but it's an interesting comp. Fregosi played in a lethal environment for hitters, had pretty good power and walked a bit, but struck out a lot, and had a good defensive reputation at a key position. He was a really fine player. And after Fregosi turned 29, his career was a shambles.
Well, Fregosi didn't strike out all that much, but yes, it's a reasonable and insightful comp. Fregosi at his peak was highly respected as the very good player he was, but nobody was confusing him with the top performers in the game, and nobody thought that the knee problems that wrecked his career in his early 30s had derailed a HOF-bound career.
I don't. I've read the conclusion, but haven't seen the raw data. I don't know if B-ref has reliable breakdowns of OF Gs by position going back that far. I'll take a look.
Regarding centrefielders and defense... what was the quality of the left and right fielders in the early part of the century. From memory weren't alot of parks deeper in one of the corners so teams had much better defensive outfielders in general? Where as more recently the trend has been for corner outfielders to more and more resemble statues forcing the centrefielder to cover more ground despite a generallly smakker field. Kind of like how the defensive weightings of the infield positions have changed with time.
Some were, but many had at least one very shallow corners, rapidly deepening towards the power alleys, as a result of being shoe-horned into a city block. Think of CF as one corner of a square and home plate near the opposite point.
This is cool site I found today.
http://www.andrewclem.com/Baseball/Dimensions.html
Right. The problem preventing Jones from becoming an elite player was always OBP. He would show flashes of being able to walk at a pretty good clip, but he was never able to get the average+walks combination high enough in any one season to produce a top OBP. In his 51-homer year, he had just a .347 OBP and so was not in the top 10 in OPS+.
Absolutely, not nearly as much as Jones, but this is intriguing: in his career, Fregosi made three batter-strikeout leaderboards, finishing 9th, 8th, and 8th. In his career, Andruw has made three such leaderboards: finishing 9th, 8th, and 8th. Relative to their leagues, both struck out at a fair clip. Exceedingly minor point, I grant you ...
By positional league batting splits, B-R data only goes back to 1953. As to individual players by OF position, I think they're still waiting on the Retrosheet data for back then, or at least that's what I suspect, based on data sets I've been entering for them.
Well not exactly. Again, going by AROM's numbers, he has 10 seasons of being a good or better player (3+ WAR) and the majority of those are excellent (5+):
7.9, 7.2, 7.1, 7.0, 6.5, 6.1, 5.1, 4.8, 3.6, 3.2.
That a superb 10 year stretch with a very high peak (4 years of 7+). And those numbers aren't even the most optimistic out there, when it comes to his defense.
Of course, in the final accounting all the standard caveats about the reliability of fielding metrics apply, and thereupon lies the crux of Andruw's case. If Dial's numbers are more accurate, then obviously he's not nearly the same caliber of candidate. But if we are giving him "huge credit" for his defense as you hypothesize above, then his HOF case is very good and covers a 10 year span.
Through 2000, Griffey had a 147 OPS+ over 7319 plate appearances. That's higher than all but the first five on the pre 1970 list, and 7319 plate appearances was over 1500 plate appearances longer than the careers of Wilson, and Berger and 1000 pa's more than Doby's entire career.
edit: In 2005, Griffey put up a 144 OPS+ in 550+ pa's and had a career 144 OPS+ in just over 9000 pa's. The last 4 years have really killed him. It's hard to believe it's been a decade since he was truly great.
edit: In 2005, Griffey put up a 144 OPS+ in 550+ pa's and had a career 144 OPS+ in just over 9000 pa's. The last 4 years have really killed him. It's hard to believe it's been a decade since he was truly great.
Yes. And Griffey is going in, first ballot. But no one else has even been close to him in the last 40 years. And he's not close to the top-5 immortals.
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