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Thursday, May 01, 2014

Perry: Breaking down Adrian Gonzalez’s early resurgence

Max Adrian: Deliverus.

At this writing, Dodgers first baseman and fulcrum Adrian Gonzalez leads the NL in homers (tied), ranks second in slugging percentage and checks in at seventh (tied) in doubles. It’s early, of course, but this has the makings of a power resurgence for the veteran slugger.

...As for what happens when Gonzalez does put bat on ball, thus far in 2014 Gonzalez is hitting home runs on 27.6 percent of his fly balls. That’s a lofty figure, especially in comparison to his 2013 mark of 11.4 percent. Still, it’s not wildly out of step with A-Gon’s prime HR/FB rates in 2008 (20.7 percent) and 2009 (22.2 percent). While you can expect his 2014 rate to come back to earth a bit, it may not be as much as you’d think. That is, Gonzalez has proved that he’s capable of HR/FB percentages in the 20s.

...This season, exactly half of his NL-leading eight homers have been to left or left-center. That’s a good thing, insofar as Gonzalez’s near-term outlook is concerned. Moreover, Gonzalez, per Jeff Zimmerman’s data, has added almost 15 feet of distance to his average fly ball versus last season.

Yes, sample-size caveats apply, but Gonzalez’s improved health in tandem with his renewed ability to hit balls with authority and use the entire field bode well. Gonzalez is of course soon to be 32 years of age, so a long-term renaissance isn’t likely. The 2014 season, however, may turn out to be a vintage A-Gon campaign.

Repoz Posted: May 01, 2014 at 09:33 AM | 4 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dodgers, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: May 01, 2014 at 06:58 PM (#4698493)
No comments? C'mon, who's the fulcrum on all the other teams?

Was AGon one of the wrist injury victims? Folks here have speculated that it saps your power for a couple of years.

And this season's real comeback story? Justin Morneau is hitting 343/367/618, 154 OPS+. I don't care if it's Coors, I don't care about the walks and even if it doesn't last, that's great to see.
   2. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: May 01, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4698495)
Was AGon one of the wrist injury victims?
Yes, but that was more than 10 years ago. He's been remarkably durable.
   3. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: May 01, 2014 at 08:19 PM (#4698516)
I thought it was a shoulder injury that sapped his power his second year with the Red Sox and carried over for some time in LA.
   4. Dale Sams Posted: May 02, 2014 at 12:19 AM (#4698642)
I hope he keeps it up so all the doomsayers can eat crow.


...and yes, I have been a doomsayer but certainly not about him.

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