Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, May 15, 2014

Perry: High-schooler throws 194 pitches in 14-inning start

Twitchin’ Mitch Williams just got all gooey.

On Tuesday, Dylan Fosnacht of Rochester (Wash.) High School not only worked 14 innings of an eventual 17-inning victory but also racked up 194 pitches (and 17 strikeouts) in the process. To repeat: A high school kid threw 194 pitches in a single start. He was finally lifted in the 15th after allowing the first two batters of the inning to reach.

MaxPreps has more details, including a quote from the assistant coach.

As for Fosnacht, he seems to be fine with it:

Dylan Fosnacht

Some people think it’s awesome, some people think it’s ridiculous. I personally loved every minute of it and it’s a great memory to have

Repoz Posted: May 15, 2014 at 06:00 AM | 58 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hs

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Arbitol Dijaler Posted: May 15, 2014 at 07:24 AM (#4707163)
Really, though, this is a problematic thing to allow even if the young pitcher in question has no future in baseball.


I'm not sure this is really true. The human body has its limits, but it's not 194 pitches. If this is an aberration, what's the big deal. On the other hand, the coach probably overuses him in other games too, so he might actually get hurt. That's not quite the same thing though.
   2. JE (Jason) Posted: May 15, 2014 at 07:34 AM (#4707164)
He was finally lifted in the 15th after allowing the first two batters of the inning to reach.

IOW, no pitch count would have been too high as long as he was recording outs. Nice.
   3. Rants Mulliniks Posted: May 15, 2014 at 08:45 AM (#4707193)
I honestly don't know if this is a bad thing or not. Babying young pitchers over the past decade has only led to an increase in TJ surgery. Martin Perez needs it now.

I was certainly open to the idea that over working young pitchers leads to injuries, but I can't see how it is the driving factor.
   4. Davo's Favorite Tacos Are Moose Tacos Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:28 AM (#4707223)
To quote Steve Prefontaine in Without Limits:

You don't know what it'll do to my foot if I do run... but you know what it'll do to me if I don't.
   5. Rob_Wood Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:38 AM (#4707236)

RM, this is not an issue where agnosticism is a virtue. Did you see the MLB Network roundtable on the epidemic of Tommy John surgeries? Different people may have different views on the criticality of the driving factors, but everybody agrees that overworking your pitchers is definitely a driving force.
   6. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:39 AM (#4707238)
My concern here is not so much that the one time 194 pitch outing is going to destroy the kid but what it indicates about the coach. I worry that he is not being appropriately cautious with his kids. At some point you have to put the reins on the kid.

That the kid is OK with it is entirely irrelevant. Teenagers are idiots, all of them. The 18 year old kid wants to pitch and keep pitching. It doesn't mean it is what is best for him.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:43 AM (#4707244)

Really, though, this is a problematic thing to allow even if the young pitcher in question has no future in baseball.


I don't really see the problem. Even if he had a future in baseball, I'm not sure its a problem. With the long shot odds of making it, this is probably going to be his athletic career highlight.

Is he any kind of prospect? I would assume he'll at least play college ball somewhere?
   8. Tom Nawrocki Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:43 AM (#4707245)
Really, though, this is a problematic thing to allow even if the young pitcher in question has no future in baseball.


It's important to remember that the vast majority of high school pitchers have no future in baseball. And nobody has to get TJ surgery to help them do their job at Office Depot.
   9. Steve Sparks Flying Everywhere Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:49 AM (#4707256)
Did he throw 194 90 mph fastballs? Or does he throw in the 70s? Did he use max effort to throw every single pitch or did he pace himself?

Position players need TJ surgery less often than pitchers despite having similar motions to throw. And position players still throw the ball pretty hard. So I guess what I'm saying is that if the kid threw 194 pitches of so-so speed, then it might not be as bad as we think.

   10. Dock Ellis on Acid Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:59 AM (#4707272)
Is this kid considered a prospect? 17 strikeouts over 14 innings sounds a little light for a high school ace I'd be tempted enough to work that long.
   11. Shibal Posted: May 15, 2014 at 11:03 AM (#4707358)
It's a 1A high school in Washington. The guy will be playing beer league softball in three years with one helluva story to tell.
   12. JRVJ Posted: May 15, 2014 at 11:05 AM (#4707360)
Count me on the side of those who doesn't think this is an issue if this young man doesn't have a future in baseball (and by that, I mean not even getting a college scholarship or ending up as part of a minor league team somewhere).

I am pretty sure I have a busted ligament in my arm from when I played baseball as a kid (it hurts like h-ell when I throw a ball too hard nowadays). I have scrwed up ankles and knees from way too much pick-up basketball and the top falange of my left ring finger is twisted 30º from tackling a buddy in a College pick-up Football game.

None of these injuries (other than perhaps the knees for running longish distances) in any way decrease my quality of life.
   13. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 15, 2014 at 11:09 AM (#4707366)
The guy will be playing beer league softball in three years with one helluva story to tell.


Glory days, yeah they'll pass you by, glory days...
   14. Downtown Bookie Posted: May 15, 2014 at 11:31 AM (#4707399)
From here:

When asked before the 1983 Preakness about [three year old thoroughbred] Marfa’s quarter crack [Trainer D Wayne] Lukas responded: “When you get so close to one of these Triple Crown races with a good horse you do everything you can to make the race.”

The reporter countered with this remark that ended the press conference: “That sounds great Mr. Lukas, but isn’t it the horse that’s going to have to run around the track on Saturday; not you?”

Deputed Testamony won [the 1983 Preakness]; Marfa finished fourth.


DB
   15. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: May 15, 2014 at 11:53 AM (#4707422)
Glory days, yeah they'll pass you by, glory days...


That's an all time classic song, but I always cringe when Bruce says "he'd throw that speed-ball by you" rather than fastball. Unless Bruce was intimating that this guy mixed up a hell of a cocaine/heroin mixture.

As for the actual topic, I'm starting to come around to the notion that pitchers today are throwing too hard to hold up over the long run unless they're even greater genetic freaks than they already are. Regardless, when I was a kid I was never allowed to throw more than a 100 pitches at any time.
   16. andrewberg Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:03 PM (#4707432)
My concern here is not so much that the one time 194 pitch outing is going to destroy the kid but what it indicates about the coach.


I agree with this. The coach's response was that he was checking to see how the kid felt between innings. He's a kid! You are hired to coach him because you are an adult who is supposed to have more judgment and perspective than someone who isn't allowed to vote.
   17. Random Transaction Generator Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:15 PM (#4707439)
None of these injuries (other than perhaps the knees for running longish distances) in any way decrease my quality of life.


it hurts like h-ell when I throw a ball too hard nowadays

I have scrwed up ankles and knees

It kinda does sound like it has decreased the quality of your life.

   18. if nature called, ladodger34 would listen Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:21 PM (#4707445)
I have a dad he threw a few games like this back in the bad old days (he graduated from HS in '72). He still can't lift his right arm very well (and had rotator cuff surgery a few years back). It doesn't make much difference in his job as a county administrator type, but still..

I would love to see the pitch chart from the game and when hit the 100 pitch mark.

* to be honest, my dad has bigger problems anyways. He had an offroad accident a couple of years ago and all that is left of his left hand is a thumb. It still doesn't mess with his job much, but it does mess with his playing catch with the grandkids.
   19. Knock on any Iorg Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:23 PM (#4707446)
It might reduce his quality of life in the future when his shoulder or elbow hurts too much to lift his kid up and hug him. THINK OF THE CHILDREN!!

Or should the coach have his kids taken away from him?
   20. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4707453)
The 18 year old kid wants to pitch and keep pitching.


Anyone else pitch? I pitched in middle and high school and was pretty honest with my coaches about my limits. I actually pulled myself from one game even though my coach didn't want me to come out because I was pretty clearly suffering from tendinitis. If I didn't have much in the tank, I'd tell my coach I had enough for one or two batters. But I never fought to stay in a game where I was obviously tired. Maybe I was a #####, I don't know.
   21. McCoy Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4707465)
Never pitched at a high school level or beyond but did all the time in LL. Never once felt tired or that I wanted to come out. My arm, really my elbow, was done sometime in my freshman year of high school. Couldn't really throw the ball with zip or a lot without getting a throbbing elbow for the rest of the day. Last year was one of the first times my elbow didn't kill me after playing softball/baseball since I was probably 12 or so. Of course at some early point in the game I simply installed myself at first and stopped having to throw the ball around.
   22. Spectral Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:47 PM (#4707469)
People that are bent out of shape about this strike me as the same sort of folks that feel the need to tell me that I'm going to wreck my knees running marathons. They might be right, it's not entirely clear. I personally doubt it, but I accept that I might be wrong. I know that doing what I want to do in that regard brings me great fitness and joy. Likewise, it might be true that this is extremely damaging to this kid's arm. It also might not be. I'm sure it brought him a great deal of joy and a story he has for a lifetime. I'd take my chances if I were him.
   23. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:50 PM (#4707471)

That's an all time classic song, but I always cringe when Bruce says "he'd throw that speed-ball by you" rather than fastball.


I guess "he could throw 194 pitches by you in a single 14-inning start" had too many syllables.
   24. if nature called, ladodger34 would listen Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:57 PM (#4707479)
People that are bent out of shape about this strike me as the same sort of folks that feel the need to tell me that I'm going to wreck my knees running marathons. They might be right, it's not entirely clear. I personally doubt it, but I accept that I might be wrong. I know that doing what I want to do in that regard brings me great fitness and joy. Likewise, it might be true that this is extremely damaging to this kid's arm. It also might not be. I'm sure it brought him a great deal of joy and a story he has for a lifetime. I'd take my chances if I were him.


Except that there is really good evidence that running actually will make your knees stronger. The evidence for high school kids pitching tons of pitches doesn't exactly point to them getting stronger.
   25. Squash Posted: May 15, 2014 at 12:57 PM (#4707481)
Anyone else pitch? I pitched in middle and high school and was pretty honest with my coaches about my limits.

I pitched through college, and I was not honest. I suspect I am in the vast majority. I never wanted to come out because if you do it's 5 or so days before you can pitch again and I wanted to pitch.

Re: the article, I agree with the above that this is less about the kid and more about the coach. Of course the kid wanted to stay in. He's young, pitching is fun, and he's never been hurt before. The coach on the other hand is supposed to have something of a greater perspective on the whole thing and understand a single high school game is not the be-all end-all. The kid may not be a prospect - but if he was, do you think the coach would have halted the process and taken him out? Of course not. The kids are moving on - the coach is staying right here. This is the be-all end-all for him.
   26. Spectral Posted: May 15, 2014 at 01:00 PM (#4707486)
Except that there is really good evidence that running actually will make your knees stronger.

Sure, that's right, it's really more a matter of ignorance on the part of commenters there that they associate running with knee problems. To be clear though, there are health risks associated with running marathons, including cardiac distress and potential for all sorts of muscle tears.

This doesn't apply to general light jogging, but to actually racing a marathon. It really is hard on the body.
   27. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: May 15, 2014 at 01:08 PM (#4707494)
The 18 year old kid wants to pitch and keep pitching.

Anyone else pitch?


I didn't but in Junior High (now called middle school) one of my best friends did, he was pretty decent until the team made the local playoffs, his father meant well but was insane*, had him go outside and throw the damn ball off a mound for 1 hour after school EVERY day before the payoff game he was slated to pitch... The game came, and well, dead arm, no stuff whatsoever, was pulled after 3 innings and a boatload of runs, never pitched in a competitive game again.

*insane in an obsessive compulsive kind of way, not an aggressive/abusive kind of way
   28. McCoy Posted: May 15, 2014 at 01:08 PM (#4707495)
My cousin is in her late 30's and she owns two crossfit gyms. Most of her clientele are in their mid 30's and possibly into their 50's. Bodies in that athletic endeavor are always breaking down and watching them you can see why. There are plenty of workout regimes that might strengthen part of your body while damaging other parts of your body. Especially your joints and ligaments. You really either have to be pretty educated about the healthiest way to work your body out or have a really good trainer who knows their stuff and keeps you in the best form possible while you're working out or else you can do some real damage to yourself.
   29. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 15, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4707509)

People that are bent out of shape about this strike me as the same sort of folks that feel the need to tell me that I'm going to wreck my knees running marathons. They might be right, it's not entirely clear. I personally doubt it, but I accept that I might be wrong. I know that doing what I want to do in that regard brings me great fitness and joy. Likewise, it might be true that this is extremely damaging to this kid's arm. It also might not be. I'm sure it brought him a great deal of joy and a story he has for a lifetime. I'd take my chances if I were him.


In the end we all die anyway. Valar Morghulis.
   30. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: May 15, 2014 at 01:31 PM (#4707521)
Sure, that's right, it's really more a matter of ignorance on the part of commenters there that they associate running with knee problems. To be clear though, there are health risks associated with running marathons, including cardiac distress and potential for all sorts of muscle tears.

This doesn't apply to general light jogging, but to actually racing a marathon. It really is hard on the body.


True but there are two differences between you running marathons and this kid pitching;

1. You are an adult and as such you get to make decisions that are bad for you if you'd like. This kid deserves to be protected a bit.

2. The vast majority of people who run marathons only run one or two a year. I think most people view the issue here in large part that this is not an isolated incident. If it is that's great but I'm skeptical that the 194 pitch outing is an isolated event, I'd bet he gets ridden pretty hard.
   31. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: May 15, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4707526)
Perry: High-schooler throws 194 pitches in 14-inning start

Better than a Perry pre-schooler, I guess.
   32. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 15, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4707527)
My feeling is that if the coach talked it over with the kid and his parents before the season started, and was told that the kid a) was not planning to play competitive sports after his senior season, and b) wanted to pitch as much as possible his final year, then I wouldn't get on the coach for this usage. But both of those would have to be met (and I'm still not sure I'd be willing to go to almost 200 pitches, but how the kid throws might would play a factor to his limits).

   33. thetailor Posted: May 15, 2014 at 02:41 PM (#4707596)
I pitched a little in high school and then when it was determined I was no good, have been pitching in rec leagues ever since (02-present). When I was younger, up through about 05, my mind would start giving out before my body. I'd know I should probably stop pitching, but it wouldn't matter, and I'd push through until I was forced out against my will.

Nowadays, my body gives out first. Once I get to about 60 pitches or so my elbow starts barking to the point where I lose my control and I know it's time to say sayonara.

If I could go back and do it again, I'm sure I wouldn't throw 160 pitches in a game. But that's only because I'm still playing and enjoying my league. If I wasn't playing, I think I would keep the bum elbow.
   34. valuearbitrageur Posted: May 15, 2014 at 02:42 PM (#4707599)
I honestly don't know if this is a bad thing or not. Babying young pitchers over the past decade has only led to an increase in TJ surgery. Martin Perez needs it now


There isn't much evidence of this. The historical evidence is that teams have stopped ignoring serious arm injuries.

And there is no reason to risk shredding a high school pitchers arm, none, whether he's a top prospect or not. It's a silly high school game, he'll be using that arm for the rest of his life. The glory of his coach and senior class isn't worth the long term sacrifice.
   35. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: May 15, 2014 at 02:58 PM (#4707613)
It's a silly high school game, he'll be using that arm for the rest of his life.

And what, now he'll have to go through life with one arm? He'll be fine. If you are going to go through the trouble of playing the game, try to win.

Sure, if a guy looks like he could one day cash a check pitching, look out for him. Everybody else, let if fly. For a lot of people, reliving the high school sports glories is all they have.
   36. theboyqueen Posted: May 15, 2014 at 03:02 PM (#4707617)
As a family doc I can tell you people tear rotator cuffs, elbow ligaments, knee ligaments etc. doing all sorts of mundane things. The treatment is generally some rest and physical therapy and while they will probably develop some premature arthritis injuries like this are sort of the cost of being alive. High level athletes get surgery because they need to maintain a very specific peak performance, very few other people really should. We are not talking about brain injuries here.

In my mind this is less of a deal then all the damn typing we have kids doing to write papers or whatever. At least he was outside doing something physical.

   37. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: May 15, 2014 at 03:07 PM (#4707626)
In my mind this is less of a deal then all the damn typing we have kids doing to write papers or whatever.


Something to be said for that, considering carpal tunnel syndrome, I guess.
   38. JRVJ Posted: May 15, 2014 at 04:31 PM (#4707717)
36, This.
   39. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 15, 2014 at 05:07 PM (#4707744)
The kid isn't a prospect, not even a college prospect, and he seems OK with the decision:
People just don't understand. I'm not a ace pitcher, I'm a infielder who pitches every now and then. Not a prospect ruining there career.

Maybe folks who weren't there don't know better.
   40. andrewberg Posted: May 15, 2014 at 05:25 PM (#4707758)
Still don't understand why the kid's judgment is supposed to be the bottom line. Even if it isn't going to cost him millions of dollars, it seems to me that it is best to have adults around to discourage kids from doing things that are going to potentially lead to him going under the knife.
   41. Lance Reddick! Lance him! Posted: May 15, 2014 at 05:49 PM (#4707775)
The entire point is that there's basically no such potential. Surgery is for people who plan to keep pitching.
   42. McCoy Posted: May 15, 2014 at 07:31 PM (#4707827)
The entire point is that there's basically no such potential. Surgery is for people who plan to keep pitching.

Well, not exactly. He could tear or break something significant that requires surgery or a life with constant pain and or impaired use of your arm. At some point somebody has to be the adult and take a course in probabilities.
   43. Lassus Posted: May 15, 2014 at 08:46 PM (#4707854)
I'm kinda with Clapper and the kid here.

Of course, if the kid had ripped all his ligaments and cartilage on pitch #192, a lot of lawyers would have made a lot of money, so there is validity to McCoy's point as well, even if I don't make it there.
   44. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:44 PM (#4707873)
People just don't understand. I'm not a ace pitcher, I'm a infielder who pitches every now and then. Not a prospect ruining there career.

Kid needs to get off the mound and crack open an English book.
   45. Howie Menckel Posted: May 15, 2014 at 09:55 PM (#4707879)
I've mentioned before that I covered a high school game where a kid threw 216 pitches, and this is almost 30 years ago. A 1-0, 14-inning game. No recall if he won but I hope so. And unlike this kid he went the distance, Ray.

:)

But it was a county tournament quarterfinal game, so there's that.
   46. Sunday silence Posted: May 16, 2014 at 12:47 AM (#4707949)
My feeling is that if the coach talked it over with the kid and his parents before the season started, and was told that the kid a) was not planning to play competitive sports after his senior season, and b) wanted to pitch as much as possible his final year, then I wouldn't get on the coach...


Right, they probably also discussed Sartre's vision of existentialism and Plato's Republic in the same discussion.
   47. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 16, 2014 at 01:04 AM (#4707954)
Right, they probably also discussed Sartre's vision of existentialism and Plato's Republic in the same discussion.


I wasn't suggesting such a conversation took place, only that having a discussion with both the boy and his parent before the season began would be one of the conditions I'd have before I'd be OK with this type of move.
   48. theboyqueen Posted: May 16, 2014 at 01:31 AM (#4707956)
He could tear or break something significant that requires surgery or a life with constant pain and or impaired use of your arm. At some point somebody has to be the adult and take a course in probabilities.


Let's say one out of every thousand times a pitcher throws 100 pitches your doomsday scenario occurs (which in all my years of treating patients I have never seen but this is for the sake of argument). Let's say throwing 194 pitches DOUBLES that risk to two out of a thousand. We would then have to restrict 1003 kids who would have otherwise pitched 194 pitches to 100 pitches to save a single arm. And I suspect the actual hazards are nowhere near this high. Humans are horrendous at estimating risk and this seems to be an illustrative scenario.

   49. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: May 16, 2014 at 02:07 AM (#4707962)
This is kind of unrelated but a while back we had a discussion about diet pop/aspartame. I found a simple news article that cited some studies that I found pretty informative. Here's the link and some excerpts.

Anti-aspartame crusaders point principally to methanol, which is essentially wood alcohol – both poisonous and a carcinogen at high doses. But dosage is what really matters. Aspartame contains tiny amounts of these chemicals, as do many other foods. In fact, there is more “poisonous” methanol in a banana than in a can of Diet Coke, and neither will do any real harm, in the short or long-term.

Moreover, the EFSA said that aspartame becomes toxic only once you consume 4,000 mg/kg of body weight – or about 1,600 cans of Diet Coke a day.

Research has shown that drinking diet pop can actually increase the likelihood a person will overeat and gain weight, and can increase your risk of developing diabetes. How can that be if these drinks contain no calories?

The principal problem is that people who opt for diet drinks (and other low-calorie foods that contain aspartame such as yogurt, sweeteners, flavoured water and gum) often engage in what scientists describe as “cognitive distortion” – meaning that they compensate for calorie-free foods by splurging elsewhere. The classic example of this what researchers call the Big Mac and Diet Coke phenomenon.


   50. JLAC is engulfed in a harmless burst of flame Posted: May 16, 2014 at 07:18 AM (#4707982)
I pitched in little league, but I had a glass elbow. Wasn't old enough to handle as much practising (of pitching) as I did.
   51. Rob_Wood Posted: May 16, 2014 at 10:20 AM (#4708045)

theboyqueen, I respect your opinion and expertise but I disagree with you here. Public policy does not concern one isolated incident. In truth nobody cares about this one kid in Washington. If baseball (fans, organizations, players, etc.) is concerned about the recent spate of Tommy John surgeries, we look for ways to diminish the risks. From a public policy perspective, one of the most obvious and noncontroversial is to limit how much young pitchers throw. Some have emphasized in-game or weekly pitch counts, eliminating year-round play, limiting curve balls, not using radar guns, mounds vs. flat ground, etc., etc.

Nobody is arguing (as far as I know) that by throwing 194 pitches that this one kid is going to need Tommy John surgery in his future. I am sure it barely moved the needle for him. But the point is that there are thousands and thousands of youth coaches and youth pitchers that are in similar situations. The hue and cry is for them (coaches and young pitchers) to educate themselves on the largely invisible risks.

I remember when seat belts became mandatory. Many people argued that the odds of a seat belt saving their life was so tiny that it did not outweigh the inconvenience of buckling up. Of course, such arguments seem strange today (at least they do to me). The point is that there are millions of drivers and by the law of large numbers many lives will be saved (fewer serious injuries, hospital stays, etc.). Society came to the view that we (collectively) would be better off if seat belt usage was mandatory than if we left it up to the individual's own choice.

The reason why this story of the 194-pitch outing received such notoriety is that it flies in the face of everything that so-called experts have been espousing for several years. And to use the fact that this pitcher is not a prospect to somehow absolve the coach is ridiculous -- people really think that the coach would have taken out a better pitcher (prospect) after, say, 100 pitches given that he left this kid in for 194? Give me a break.
   52. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 16, 2014 at 10:28 AM (#4708052)
Humans are horrendous at estimating risk and this seems to be an illustrative scenario.


Yes, this. Frankly the kid was in a lot more danger of long-term physical harm standing at the plate with a bat in his hands than he was throwing 194 pitches.
   53. Rob_Wood Posted: May 16, 2014 at 10:50 AM (#4708073)

repeat - nobody gives a crap about this one kid
   54. Yastrzemski in left. Posted: May 16, 2014 at 11:05 AM (#4708087)
Olbermann had a nice spot leading his show last night on the TJ surgeries. Essentially saying there is very little difference in the necessity of the surgery, but a huge difference in the perception of its efficacy and recovery time. KO quoted Jobe as saying 50% of players who come in with arm pain ASK for the surgery. Kids are coming back stronger and according to the report hardly any of these arms collapse again once its done.
   55. Pat Rapper's Delight Posted: May 16, 2014 at 12:13 PM (#4708151)
Moreover, the EFSA said that aspartame becomes toxic only once you consume 4,000 mg/kg of body weight – or about 1,600 cans of Diet Coke a day.

Uh oh....
   56. Sunday silence Posted: May 16, 2014 at 05:49 PM (#4708455)
Let's say one out of every thousand times a pitcher throws 100 pitches your doomsday scenario occurs (which in all my years of treating patients I have never seen but this is for the sake of argument). Let's say throwing 194 pitches DOUBLES that risk to two out of a thousand. We would then have to restrict 1003 kids who would have otherwise pitched 194 pitches to 100 pitches to save a single arm. And I suspect the actual hazards are nowhere near this high. Humans are horrendous at estimating risk and this seems to be an illustrative scenario.


If you expect us to recognize your expertise as a doctor you ought to at least show some basic scientific logic her. Let's examine your statements:

1. The concept that doubling the number of pitches should double the risks is stoopid. Increasing such activities like that are most often going to increase in an exponential fashion not a linear fashion. Otherwise by your logic a kid could throw a thousand pitches in one session and have a 1/100 chance of injury. Wanna try for 10,000 pitches and see how that works out?

2. you've made up a risk number of 1/1000. That was pulled out of your ### correct? Otherwise where do you get the data pts?

3. "1003 kids." What the hell is this in reference to? How do you arrive at the number 1003? Can you show the work?

4. Humans are bad estimating risks namely for the reason that they often underestimate them. Or at least more so than overestimating them. Otherwise humans would be known for being too cautious. Regardless of whether humans over or underestimate things, citing some saying or some traditional lore or whatever the hell that phrase is, has nothing to do with a serious debate.

5. How do you "suspect" the hazards are lower when you start off apparently by simply making numbers up? If you knew the actual break down rate you wouldnt have to speculate. Who cares what your speculation is/ What difference could that possibly make to anything here?
   57. Sunday silence Posted: May 16, 2014 at 06:00 PM (#4708463)

I wasn't suggesting such a conversation took place, only that having a discussion with both the boy and his parent before the season began would be one of the conditions I'd have before I'd be OK with this type of move.


But even then, is this even sensible?

1 How can you sit down with a parent before a season begins and put precise limitations on such things? Does it matter if it's a playoff game? Does it matter how the kid feels? Does it matter 105 pitches vs a 107 pitches? Does it matter if he's thrown 167 pitches and he only needs one more strike or if he's at 153 and he needs two more outs? Can we draw a curve to show the precise pt at which we stop throwing based upon pitch count vs number of outs remaing?

Do you get it? How on earth would word such an agreement between parent and coach? you've got number of pitches, number of outs to go, value of the game, how the player feels. What if the player has done well year throwing a 110 pitches? Does that matter.

2. This whole concept of the kid is a prospect vs. not a prospect is also bogus. For one thing before the season starts you might very well not know this. That what becoming a sensation overnight is all about. One day the kid shows up for baseball, he's grown 3" and gained 20 lbs. and he tosses 2 or 3 good games and suddenly people wake up and realize this kid could make it.

Otherwise what is the point of scouting and such? Prospective big leaguers arent tagged with that label from the cradle, one day they suddenly arrive. How do you factor that into this hypothetical pre season meeting? The whole issue like this can change on game by game basis depending on how some kid is doing or how is arm is working or how the team is doing. It's not a static situation which you seem to suggest.

3. Why value would there need to be any such parent/coach discussion? Presumably the coach should treat all his players health the same way (of course different players may have different thresholds). Why should the coach take out Bill at 90 pitches but leave Johnny in for 100 simply on the basis of some parent/coach conference. Why on earth would you ask parents know what their kids threshold is? They aren't doctors, or orthopedic specialists.

I realize the coach is not likely a doc either, but presumably as a coach he has to have some experience and judgment with this issue. This is basically what "parens patrie" concept is like for teacher, or big brother, or coach at the boxing club, or whatever are all about They are supposed to have some responsibility.

4. This is sort of unrelated to what Rob said but: DONT THEY HAVE PITCH COUNTS IN THIS LEAGUE?

I am too tired to read the article again but we had pitch counts even up to pony league. what was this high school? Dont they have pitch counts or inn. counts?
   58. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: May 16, 2014 at 06:17 PM (#4708473)
Do you get it? How on earth would word such an agreement between parent and coach? you've got number of pitches, number of outs to go, value of the game, how the player feels. What if the player has done well year throwing a 110 pitches? Does that matter.


You realize you're very pitching-thin this year (or, hell, the boy does and comes to you). You sit down with dad and son and discuss things. You see where they stand on the issue of usage, you throw out some hypotheticals, and go from there. That's probably what coaches should do with all their pitchers.

Obviously, no one's saying, "Hey, would you be willing to throw 194 pitches in a playoff game if it meant advancing?" But you can get a general feel for his (and, more important, his family's) view on his usage. If this boy isn't planning to play organized sports after this, then the risks associated with more pitches than we'd otherwise recommend changes considerably. Not necessarily 194 pitches worth, as I said earlier, but I also don't know enough about how he throws to know what kind of stress he was putting on his arm.

2. This whole concept of the kid is a prospect vs. not a prospect is also bogus. For one thing before the season starts you might very well not know this. That what becoming a sensation overnight is all about. One day the kid shows up for baseball, he's grown 3" and gained 20 lbs. and he tosses 2 or 3 good games and suddenly people wake up and realize this kid could make it.


This was a postseason game and he was a senior (at a small high school). If he's not a prospect by now, and has no interest in playing collegiately, then his baseball career is effectively over in a week's time. Given that, I think it's perfectly reasonable to change how you'd otherwise handle these things, to allow the athlete and his family more say in his deployment.


3. Why value would there need to be any such parent/coach discussion? Presumably the coach should treat all his players health the same way (of course different players may have different thresholds). Why should the coach take out Bill at 90 pitches but leave Johnny in for 100 simply on the basis of some parent/coach conference. Why on earth would you ask parents know what their kids threshold is? They aren't doctors, or orthopedic specialists.


Because the kid's athletic career is ending in about a week's time. I'm more comfortable letting that kid (and that kid's family) have a greater say in how much risk they're willing to take on when it comes to his athletic health.

"Listen coach. I know this is it, but I just want to keep playing as long as we can."

I think it's perfectly sensible to treat that differently than the 12-year-old that you hope is your ticket to Williamsburg.


4. This is sort of unrelated to what Rob said but: DONT THEY HAVE PITCH COUNTS IN THIS LEAGUE?


Apparently not.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
James Kannengieser
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

Hall of MeritMost Meritorious Player: 2014 Discussion
(21 - 5:50am, Oct 22)
Last: toratoratora

NewsblogMike Scioscia, Matt Williams voted top managers
(26 - 5:07am, Oct 22)
Last: Dr. Vaux

Newsblog2014 WORLD SERIES GAME 1 OMNICHATTER
(603 - 5:01am, Oct 22)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogSielski: A friend fights for ex-Phillie Dick Allen's Hall of Fame induction
(116 - 4:59am, Oct 22)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogOT: Monthly NBA Thread - October 2014
(317 - 4:33am, Oct 22)
Last: HMS Moses Taylor

NewsblogFan Returns Home Run Ball to Ishikawa; Receives World Series tickets
(57 - 2:07am, Oct 22)
Last: PreservedFish

NewsblogAs Focus Faded and Losses Piled Up, Royals Change Their Game
(7 - 1:16am, Oct 22)
Last: boteman

NewsblogRoyals’ James Shields passed kidney stone during ALCS but is ready for World Series | The Kansas City Star
(40 - 1:00am, Oct 22)
Last: Roger Freed Is Ready

NewsblogDealing or dueling – what’s a manager to do? | MGL on Baseball
(19 - 12:52am, Oct 22)
Last: Mike Emeigh

NewsblogOT: Politics, October 2014: Sunshine, Baseball, and Etch A Sketch: How Politicians Use Analogies
(2898 - 11:11pm, Oct 21)
Last: The Yankee Clapper

NewsblogDombrowski told that Iglesias 'will be fine' for 2015
(21 - 10:22pm, Oct 21)
Last: fra paolo

NewsblogOT: The Soccer Thread, September 2014
(852 - 8:40pm, Oct 21)
Last: Biff, highly-regarded young guy

NewsblogBaseball's hardest throwing bullpen - Beyond the Box Score
(10 - 8:02pm, Oct 21)
Last: ReggieThomasLives

NewsblogMorosi: Could Cain’s story make baseball king of sports world again?
(107 - 7:04pm, Oct 21)
Last: Spahn Insane

NewsblogBaseball Prospectus | Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the People of Kauffman Stadium
(10 - 6:00pm, Oct 21)
Last: Perry

Page rendered in 0.5192 seconds
52 querie(s) executed