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Tuesday, August 07, 2012

Dayn Perry: Putting Mike Trout into perspective

Trout: Time quakes.

Here, then, is a list of the highest OPS+‘s ever by qualifying 20- and 21-year-olds. Although Trout is, as of today, 21 years of age, this is his age-20 season, so that means some players on the list to follow will be older than Trout. Keep that in mind as you peruse these names, which come to use courtesy of the Baseball-Reference Play Index ..

ue

That’s a list of every qualifier to notch an OPS+ of 160 or better in his age-20 or -21 season. Of the 12 names on that list, you’ll find nine current hall of famers, one future hall of famer (Rodriguez) and one of the all-time “what could’ve been” guys (Cedeno).

You’ll also find, comfortably at the top of the rankings, Mike Trout.

Folks, we’re witnessing something very special.

 

Repoz Posted: August 07, 2012 at 07:03 PM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: angels, history, sabermetrics

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. AROM Posted: August 07, 2012 at 07:51 PM (#4202754)
Happy birthday Mike Trout. Enjoy a beer tonight, but in moderation. Let's not let the Mantle comparisons go there.
   2. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: August 07, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4202761)
This kid is awesome. It is super fun to watch him and it is obvious that he is having an historically amazing season.

He has salvaged the season for me, regardless of whether the Angels make the playoffs or not.
   3. Willie Mayspedes Posted: August 07, 2012 at 08:08 PM (#4202764)
Still got some work to do this year but yikes!
   4. AndrewJ Posted: August 07, 2012 at 08:20 PM (#4202771)
As I posted on another thread, Mike Trout was born the day after the first website was launched.

Which makes me feel really, really old.
   5. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: August 07, 2012 at 08:22 PM (#4202773)
What?!? What was the first website?
   6. The District Attorney Posted: August 07, 2012 at 08:27 PM (#4202778)
What?!? What was the first website?
Abe Vigoda Status.
   7. Jim (jimmuscomp) Posted: August 07, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4202779)
Ha!!!
   8. AndrewJ Posted: August 07, 2012 at 08:44 PM (#4202789)
Here's a story about the world's earliest website.
   9. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: August 07, 2012 at 09:10 PM (#4202802)
I like to imagine that the first website was created by radical elements at Harvard Law School who wanted to discredit Barack Obama and prevent him from becoming law review president.

"Barack Obama wants you to think that he's a black Muslim. But did you know he's really half-white? And Christian? Learn the truth about Barack Obama's stodgy, traditionalist Judeo-Christian values here."

As a result, I won't be clicking on the link in #8.
   10. GEB4000 Posted: August 07, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4202810)
"BO also wants you to think he was born in Kenya, but he really was born in Hawaii."
   11. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:21 PM (#4202846)
What?!? What was the first website?


Mr. T Ate My Balls
   12. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: August 07, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4202858)
What?!? What was the first website?


Pog Think Factory.
   13. Nasty Nate Posted: August 07, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4202910)
the 87 games sticks out a little on that list
   14. Loren F. Posted: August 08, 2012 at 12:02 AM (#4202914)
What?!? What was the first website?


Wouldn't that have been Town Ball Think Factory?
   15. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: August 08, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4202917)
Look at that list of hacks! Especially the two guys who came up twice. Trout has no future in this game, he should try basketball.
   16. phredbird Posted: August 08, 2012 at 01:01 AM (#4202941)
87 games sticks out a little on that list


noted ... but how bad does he have to crater to fall to mere jimmie foxx level? note that his OPS+ margin over foxx is greater than foxx (2) to ott (8).
   17. Walt Davis Posted: August 08, 2012 at 02:45 AM (#4202952)
What was the first website?

It's a trap!!
   18. Walt Davis Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:10 AM (#4202955)
but how bad does he have to crater to fall to mere jimmie foxx level?

Probably not far at all really.

Since Mickey Hatcher was fired, Pujols has hit 332/406/661 in 325 PA. On the year he's got an 883 OPS and 147 OPS+.

Mike Trout has 401 PA and has hit 348/411/598. So if he sucks for a month at that early Pujols level, he could fall all the way back to 150.

Alternatively he has played 87 games and the Angels have 52 games left. Assuming he plays all 52, solve for X to get an approximation of what his OPS+ would have to be for the remaining games to pull him below 160:

87*183 + 52*X = 139*159

I get X = 119.

In short, if he hits like Alfonso Soriano (all things to all people!) for the rest of the year, he'd fall off Dayn's list completley. It really is too soon to anoint his season as falling among these greats. I mean an OPS+ in the 150s and we'd be comparing him to bums like Pujols, Griffey, Musial, Speaker, Hornsby and Hal Trosky!

Seriously, you don't start hitting a substantial number of non-HoFers until you get below 140. There are a few -- Cedeno, Trosky, Hoblitzel, Del Ennis and I hear the jury is still out on Giancarlo Stanton (why is nobody talking about this guy?) Even below 140 you've got plenty of HoFers. Looking at these lists, his "downside" seems to be "HoF track until injured." I get 41 players (min 400 PA) who posted a 135 OPS+ or better at age 21 or younger and, unless I missed somebody, Hoblitzel and maybe Carlos May and Curt Blefary are the only seasons that look like flukes. Everybody else conssistently hit at that level or better for their primes.
   19. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: August 08, 2012 at 06:55 AM (#4202967)
Giancarlo Stanton (why is nobody talking about this guy?)
Well, you just spent a couple hundred words talking about this other guy for some reason. I wonder if that's been happening a lot.
   20. Bug Selig Posted: August 08, 2012 at 07:09 AM (#4202968)
the 87 games sticks out a little on that list


Let's blame Bobby V for not having the Angels play 285 games through July.
   21. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: August 08, 2012 at 09:57 AM (#4203047)
Took my kids out for frozen yogurt last night and saw the top three of an ESPN list of the best athletes 21 and under ... 3) Kyrie Irving, 2) Bryce Harper, 1) Anthony Davis.
Trout-less.
   22. The District Attorney Posted: August 08, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4203209)
Took my kids out for frozen yogurt last night and saw the top three of an ESPN list of the best athletes 21 and under ... 3) Kyrie Irving, 2) Bryce Harper, 1) Anthony Davis.
Trout-less.
Joe Sheehan argued Harper over Trout the other day.

It is funny, however, to put a guy who isn't in his sport's major leagues yet over both of them.

Also, Perry apparently beat Jonah Keri to writing this same article.
   23. Chokeland Bill Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4203515)
Giancarlo Stanton (why is nobody talking about this guy?)


I think a big part is he started slow this year and then has been out for a month or so. During that time Trout has been nuts so everyone has just forgotten Stanton.

Jason Heyward has had a nice little bounce-back year, too. Lots of talented young outfielders around right now.
   24. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4203528)
From Jonah Keri's article:

And if he keeps up this pace, we might soon be able to say this: On a per-game basis, he's putting up one of the greatest performances by any player, of any age, ever.


I dislike articles that are founded on the assumption that someone's unprecedented numbers over half a season will continue over the second half. If you want to write an article comparing Mike Trout's numbers over 87 games to other people's numbers over 87 games, have at it.
   25. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 08, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4203541)
trout has all the makings of some superhero type character. broad shoulders, big smile, aw shucks approach

mike, young'un, i am fine if off the field you dress up in women's clothes or are on the down low or whatever non-hurtful to other behaviors may exist in your life since this persona seems too good to be true

just stay away from the drugs, the booze and tattoos and you and i will get along just fine

thanks for all the great work to date
   26. Portia Stanke Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4203595)
or are on the down low


Wikipedia just taught me something I did not previously know.
   27. The District Attorney Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4203615)
Harveys can hit you with all sorts of hipster slang.
   28. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:17 PM (#4203621)
it's the grandkids influence. that and one hippie daughter and one hippie d-i-l
   29. T.J. Posted: August 08, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4203675)
If you want to write an article comparing Mike Trout's numbers over 87 games to other people's numbers over 87 games, have at it.

Can anyone figure out which players have had the greatest 90-game starts to their careers? That would be kind of neat to see.

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