On Friday night against the Pirates, Braves right-hander Tim Hudson will make his first attempt at earning career win number 200. While I have no use for pitcher wins and losses as a measure of value, this is still a relevant career benchmark. It also raises the question of whether Hudson is cobbling together a case for the Hall of Fame.
In addition to being on the brink of 200 victories, the 37-year-old right-hander also boasts a .657 career winning percentage (21st all-time), a 126 ERA+ (61st all-time) and 1,814 strikeouts (92nd all-time). On a broader level, Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, which compares players to the established hall-of-fame norms at their respective positions/roles, paints the following picture for Hudson as things presently stand:
...Hudson’s best chance will come via the “career value” path. After all, it’s unlikely that a 37-year-old is going to drastically improve his peak indicators. And those peak indicators (no Cy Youngs, merely three All-Star appearances, for instance) leave something to be desired when it comes to the high standards of the Hall. But Hudson has indeed been remarkably consistent over his career. To put a finer point on it, only once, in 2006, has Hudson logged a seasonal ERA+ worse than 110. He’ll reach 200 wins, of course, and 2,000 strikeouts should come in 2014.
One of the keys for Hudson will be sustaining his rate value (i.e., his run-prevention numbers) while continuing to climb the innings list. At present, Hudson ranks 190th on the all-time innings list with 2,700 1/3 frames to his credit. On that front, Bob Lemon (himself a dubious choice for Cooperstown) probably represents the low end for hall-of-fame innings, with 2,850. That’s certainly within reach, should Hudson choose to continue pitching beyond this season. Hudson could also get to 3,000 innings late 2014 and something in the range of 3,250 would likely place him in the top 100 all-time (Andy Pettitte and Roy Halladay are the only active pitchers ahead of Hudson on the innings list).
Posted: April 19, 2013 at 12:28 PM | 66 comment(s)
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