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Thursday, July 11, 2019

Phil Coke and the Quest for 512 Wins: An OOTP experiment

I’m sure you don’t need me to tell you that the win statistic is pretty dumb. It largely rewards a pitcher for having a good offense around him. One interesting wrinkle is that starting pitchers are required to pitch at least 5 innings to be eligible for the victory. If the starter is pulled with the lead before the end of the fifth inning, then his replacement is in line for the victory instead. This rule is a major reason why Tampa Bay “bulk guy” Ryan Yarbrough was able to win 16 games in 2018 despite making just 6 starts. I decided to take this rule to the absolute extreme. With the singular goal of maximizing his win total, I believe that even a mediocre relief pitcher could blow past Cy Young’s record of 511 wins.

kthejoker Posted: July 11, 2019 at 09:50 PM | 69 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: ootp

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   1. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:23 PM (#5861186)
Back in my youth I played a LOT of Microleague baseball. One year I did a season with the 1986 Blue Jays. My winningest pitcher with 22 wins was reliever Mark Eichhorn.
   2. PreservedFish Posted: July 11, 2019 at 10:29 PM (#5861188)
I love this wacky ####.
   3. Davo (Love Won The Battle Of Stalingrad) Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:07 PM (#5861195)
This was fantastic. Thank you.
   4. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: July 11, 2019 at 11:15 PM (#5861200)
This is why I interrupt people that love bring up unbreakable records and are touting Cy's win total, focus on his 749 CG record if you want to talk about #### the world will never see again. Get your video game to do that.
   5. ajnrules Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:47 AM (#5861210)
All these vultured wins and he still couldn't break Old Hoss Radbourn's single-season wins record.
   6. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:46 AM (#5861220)
Some funny stuff.
   7. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 07:58 AM (#5861226)
This is why I interrupt people that love bring up unbreakable records and are touting Cy's win total, focus on his 749 CG record if you want to talk about #### the world will never see again. Get your video game to do that.

I suspect you could do this if you wanted to - why not have him pitch 162 complete games in a year? Although you might need to monkey with the injury setting.
   8. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 12, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5861236)
This was really fun.

I tried something like this with Diamond Mind and Cliff Politte, but just for the 2002 season. What's interesting was that when the starter didn't go five and left with the team ahead, DMB was far more willing to give the win to the best reliever instead of whatever reliever came in after the starter left. (SPOILER ALERT) In Coke's record-breaking win he goes a third of an inning and gives up 2 runs. In DMB the win would've probably gone to a reliever who pitched better, even if only to someone who pitched a full inning and gave up two runs. IOW, something like this would be a lot harder in DMB than in OOTP. I suspect that if someone started trying to do this in real life then there would be some sort of offseason missive to the official scorers, ordering them to be more thoughtful and less automatic in doling out wins.
   9. SoSH U at work Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:07 AM (#5861245)
I suspect that if someone started trying to do this in real life then there would be some sort of offseason missive to the official scorers, ordering them to be more thoughtful and less automatic in doling out wins.


So, we need this to happen. I'd love to see scorers start using more discretion on awarding wins.
   10. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:10 AM (#5861246)
Fun!

I don't quite get why he only sometimes GM'ed - I'd have just gone total GM control.... man, though - that's a hella lot games to play out (I usually manage about 1/3, autoplay stretches, and usually manage the playoffs).

I did have a guy break the all-time hits record - he was basically a Ty Cobb who lacked the arm to play CF. He hit .400 twice and set the all-time hits in a season record 4 times - I did have to "cheat" and unretire him because the idiot hung up his spikes at age 39 after slashing a not-terrible something on the order of 270/320/350, but was only about 100 short. He was annoyed that I had to drag him out of retirement and struggled to hit .200 - but I got him over the line.

I don't do player editing anymore (for some reason, the introduction of challenge mode has made me feel guilty about not using it) - but several versions back, when 2016 was just a gleam in a University of San Diego 3B's eye - I did do a frustration unloading edit. Didn't just max out everyone's skillsets - but dump the player pool to file and basically did some player edits to give my primo players top skillsets (i.e., my "power hitter" topped everyone in power, etc). They were all player edits from the draft my first season and very young "lottery ticket" trades I made with teams I hate (i.e., the Cardinals, Yankees, and White Sox each contributed all-time franchise embarrassing trades). I ultimately created a backbone of a better Mike Schmidt at 3B, a faster Rogers Hornsby with less power at 2B, an all-time defensive wiz catcher who could switch-hit like Piazza, a prototypical fireballer in the Clemens mode, another crafty lefty ala Maddux who didn't walk anyone, and a submarining closer that would forced both Quiz and Mo into setup roles. Did max out their 'attributes' (i.e., work ethic, injury, loyalty, etc) - and also had some fun with the names and places of birth.... the 3B had a 5 syllable polish last name from my home town... the fireballer was from Texas with initials that led to his "TNT" nickname.... the submariner was a Cajun from the bayou... the 2B was a kid from the hardscrabble Bronx that escaped the projects.... etc.

They all became HOFers - though only the closer broke any records (he eclipsed Mo by nearly 100 saves). My 3B made it over 600 HRs - and the prototypical Texas fireballer did actually make it to 400 wins (on the nose) but came up a bit short of the all-time K record. All of them except the closer made it to 100 WAR.
   11. Rally Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:20 AM (#5861252)
I tried that in the minor league of my APBA league in 2000. Just figured, "let's see if I can get this guy 30 wins". A few were solid relief wins, pitching 2 innings after coming in from a tie, but also plenty of 4 2/3 outings from starters resulting in vulture wins. It worked, he won 30 games, never tried it again until last year.

My brother's ace starter had just turned 40 and was sitting on 288 wins. At this point we've moved on from APBA, into OOTP. This pitcher at age 39 was incredible, 14-9, 2.26 ERA (actually lowest of his long career) in 199 innings. But he ran out of gas in the playoffs, and entering the new season his velocity dropped from mid 90s to upper 80s. His pitch ratings (20-80 scale) were around 45 instead of 60+.

He got rocked a few times early and we talked about what to do with the guy. He still had 2 years left on the contract. The team wasn't contending anyway so we decided on a plan to vulture his way to 300 before he lost it completely. He picked up a few wins and generally pitched better in relief, but in mid season suffered an injury and was out a few months. He came back towards the end but just fell short. There were a few tough opportunities lost when he would, for example, come into the 5th and get the last out for a 3 run lead, but the other bullpen guys couldn't hold it.

He finished 9-7, 5.87 ERA, giving him 297 wins. Despite having one more year on the contract, the AI of the game made him retire. My brother decided not to continue the farce and let him fall just short of 300 wins. It helped him in that it saved his team about 20 million.
   12. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5861255)
Believe it or not - I've found 30 win seasons (by a SP going 5+) to be doable. Once you build a juggernaut - it tends to be a matter of having a stud pitcher (obviously) with top health.

Despite being a pitcher TLC acolyte - I actually run my digital pitchers into the ground (250 IP are common, barring injury). I still run 5 man rotations - though I tend to go with highest rested - so my aces are still only getting 34-35 starts a year, but on a couple of occasions, I've found myself in August with a 20 game winner already. From then out, I usually manage all his starts myself - and give him every chance for the W, even if he gets knocked around. I suppose technically - I may end up needing to do a Coke-ian vulture the last week or so of the season to get a guy over that 28/29 hump....
   13. Rally Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:29 AM (#5861256)
Had a guy break Pete's record too. His career started in Microleague, spanned the entire APBA era (1997-2014), and into OOTP. A first baseman who hit like Tony Gwynn, a .333 career hitter, a little bit more power but not much more. 4 seasons over 20 HR, top of 28, typically in the 12-18 range. Extremely durable, from 1998-2013 had only one season with less than 600 AB. Hit .331 at 41, .290 at 42. That left him 4 hits short of Pete. His skills were diminished at 43 but he stuck around as a pinch hitter, hit .222 with 1 homer in 117 AB, and took the record.
   14. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:31 AM (#5861257)
In TFA I just got to the link to Coke's Hall of Fame acceptance speech. It's wonderfully ironic.

I mentioned once repeatedly forcing Johnny Damon back onto the field after he attempted to retire, so that he could get to 3000 hits while batting .140 as a platoon DH. OOTP is a lot of fun for doing stupid ####.
   15. Rally Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:33 AM (#5861258)
Nobody has done 30 in my league legitimately. One pitcher got 28, pitched part of the year in a 4 man rotation, though his 264 innings wasn't extreme. Another got 27 pitching in a strict 5 man rotation. Most amazing thing is that he was 27-6 and completely avoided any no-decisions despite only throwing 5 complete games.
   16. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:41 AM (#5861262)
A comment from the link:
I went to a tigers game for my 21st birthday and had the pleasure of watching Phil Coke warm up in the bullpen 1st row seats. At the time I was not the biggest fan of his and may have heckled him a bit. He approached me and asked what I had said, flabbergasted I replied "go back to the yankees" and he responded \"#### the yankees" and I have ever since loved Phil Coke. Great post OP!
Phil Coke is an admirable man!
   17. Nasty Nate Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:41 AM (#5861263)
In TFA I just got to the link to Coke's Hall of Fame acceptance speech. It's wonderfully ironic.
Yeah the blurb and speech are the perfect capper.
   18. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5861272)
Nobody has done 30 in my league legitimately. One pitcher got 28, pitched part of the year in a 4 man rotation, though his 264 innings wasn't extreme. Another got 27 pitching in a strict 5 man rotation. Most amazing thing is that he was 27-6 and completely avoided any no-decisions despite only throwing 5 complete games.


This is what I end up with - very low numbers of No Decisions for SPs... I have to admit that even beyond liking to get 7 IP out of my SP, I also run up big pitch counts because when I manage games, I find myself figuring "meh, come on... you can 9 innings". My leaderboards show a lot of weird anomalies - the rest of the league tends to match up with nominal IRL IP, CG, SHO, etc totals - but I've always got 2-3 SPs who are posting anomalous IP/CG/SHO totals. In my just completed season, for example, Cole Hamels threw 7 CGs.... or, half of the IRL MLB total in 2018.
   19. Rusty Priske Posted: July 12, 2019 at 09:59 AM (#5861274)
So, we need this to happen. I'd love to see scorers start using more discretion on awarding wins.


I want to see LESS discretion - and the 5 inning minimum for starting pitchers removed.

Start recogonzing 'Wins' for what the are - a record of who the current pitcher was when a team took the lead. Nothing more, nothing less.
   20. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:05 AM (#5861279)
Start recogonzing 'Wins' for what the are - a record of who the current pitcher was when a team took the lead. Nothing more, nothing less.


Why? That makes it even more useless than it already is.
   21. Rally Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:13 AM (#5861283)
Curious about avoiding no-decisions. With at least 30+ games, it's been done 86 times, mostly before 1900. 14 times between 1900-1906. Last person to do it was Dazzy Vance in 1925 (22-9 in 31 games).
   22. Rally Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:16 AM (#5861286)
Lowering my query to 20 games, it's been done 5 times since 1925, none after 1942, and 3 of those seasons were from Ted Lyons.

Going down to 15 or more games returns 3 seasons after 1942, most recently Ivan Nova in 2015 (17 games, 6-11).
   23. bfan Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:29 AM (#5861297)
That piece is awesome.

I assume that another easily broken record that looks now as almost insurmountable is SB in a year. Ignoring the modern understanding of how much outs made on the bases cost (i.e. you need to be better than 7)% on your SB attempts or you are costing your team wins), I would assume a Trae Turner or little Mondesi could just start running every time they get on base and get past the single season mark. People talk about the wear and tear as a limiting factor, but the dirt on the infields has to be softer now that it was when the guys were running in the 1970's and 1980's, doesn't it?
   24. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:43 AM (#5861314)
When I bought OOTP18, the first season replay I ran was 1978 and Ron Guidry won 32 games, none of them being vultured wins in relief.
   25. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5861317)
23 - I think breaking Rickey's SB record may be tougher than you think. SB% would absolutely plummet, you'd face a zillion successful pickoff throws, and of course even the excellent Trea Turner does not get on base as much as Rickey did.
   26. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:00 AM (#5861321)
IRL or OOTP?

In OOTP - the SB record (season or career) is very easy to break. I mean - I think it's still as counter-productive to run every time you get on base if you can't achieve the 75%+ success rate, but such stuff is a lot easy to overlook in a game.
   27. Rusty Priske Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:04 AM (#5861323)
Why? That makes it even more useless than it already is.


So a SP has to go five but a RP can literally get a win without throwing a pitch makes it a useful stat?
   28. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:14 AM (#5861327)
Zonk, I assumed we were talking about in real life for the SB record.

In OOTP of course the computer is not smart enough to realize that you're a 100% bet to steal and so doesn't adjust anything. Not sure if it does a good job generally with SB% ... the old strat-o-matic computer game would just straight up tell you what the probability of success was.
   29. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:18 AM (#5861329)
You could break the SB record in OOTP through a Phil Cokeian method. In every game, the first time a guy gets on first (with second open) pinch run your designated speedster. This gets him 162 automatic times on base. Turn that into (say) 140 steal attempts at a 60% rate. Then say he gets on average 3 PA after that. Say a .280 OBP, a steal attempt in 70% of his times on base, at the same 60% rate. That's ~141 steals per 162 games, which (if he misses zero time) gets him the record in ten years. A player with a less abysmal OBP and steal rate would probably get enough per year to make up for the inevitable injuries. I mean, give him Jarrod Dyson's career OBP (.322) and he's averaging ~178 SB/162, even with the anemic SB%.
   30. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5861331)
It does (model appropriately) -- i.e., it's easy to the break the records if you completely ignore the scoring probabilities and success rate chances. So - you can break the records, but you're not going to break the records even if you cheat and max out capabilities of the runners with what are commonly held as the success rate threshold to make it a good idea.... and FWIW - the AI does seem to generally do a good job of adjusting to the baserunners (not sure if it's dynamic or not - I've also gotten the impression, at least, that when I do try to amass SB records on a lark, I seem to run into a lot more pitchouts and get picked off more as the AI tends to throw to 1st more. That might be/seems somewhat broken to me - i.e., when I put the steal on, it feels like I get picked off more than I should but maybe I'm wrong and it makes sense that a 'runner leaning' does lead to more pick offs).

EDIT: Coke - the fizzy kind - to Fern...
   31. Howie Menckel Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5861341)
Lowering my query to 20 games, it's been done 5 times since 1925, none after 1942, and 3 of those seasons were from Ted Lyons.

HOFer Lyons pitched between 169 and 195 IP from 1935-42. he started 20 to 24 games per season - mostly on Sundays - and completed all 20 in 1942 when he went 14-6 with a AL-best 2.10 ERA. he completed 137 of 176 games in that span.

after the war, he returned to the White Sox in 1946 and completed all 5 starts, to a 2.32 ERA.
he retired in May to become manager, having completed his last 28 starts.

   32. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:48 AM (#5861348)
Why did he pitch mostly on Sundays?
   33. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5861355)
I'm guessing he was in the armed forces and had leave on Sundays...
   34. The Run Fairy Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5861362)
Why did he pitch mostly on Sundays?


From his SABR bio:

During his six-year run as the Sox ace, Lyons carried a heavy workload. He led the AL in complete games and innings pitched twice, and pitched the second-most innings two other times. The load apparently caught up with him in 1931. At age 30 he came down with a sore shoulder and started only 12 games all season. The pain eventually diminished, but the injury changed his career.

“I lost the good stuff on my fastball,” Lyons said. “I had to come up with something to keep me in the league. The knuckler rescued me then.” He had thrown a knuckleball occasionally before his injury; after 1931 he relied on it more heavily, though he was never a pure knuckleball pitcher. He reinvented himself as a junkball artist, mixing in his slow curve and what was left of his fastball.

Lyons returned to form in 1932 with a 3.28 ERA, although he finished 10-15 for a team that lost 102 games. From 1932-1934 he pitched more than 200 innings every year, but his workload shrank each season as his ERA rose. In 1935 manager Dykes began giving him six days’ rest between starts, and he rebounded with a 15-8 record and a 3.02 ERA, his best in eight years.

Dykes designated him as the Sunday pitcher who would start one game of that day’s doubleheader. “When I was a kid my mother wouldn’t let me play ball on Sunday,” Lyons said. “Then for [several] years that’s the only day I played.” He thrived on the lighter schedule, usually contributing a dozen or more wins each season with a better-than-average ERA.
   35. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:14 PM (#5861381)
Lyons retired to near my hometown area, and an ex-girlfriend of mine interviewed him for a class project. I figured she'd become my ex shortly after she told me he signed some things for her, but she threw them away while cleaning her room. The horror!

He's probably the only Hall of Famer to attend college on a band scholarship. Tim Kurkjian tells the story in an article at ABCNews.com:
Ted Lyons was a trombone player in the Baylor Bears band in 1919 when a brawl broke out during a Baylor-Texas A&M football game. Lyons carefully set down his trombone and joined the fight, but during the melee, his trombone was crushed, and he couldn't afford a new one. Lyons had been a good high school baseball player, so he decided, since he had no instrument to play and had lost his musical scholarship, to try to play baseball at Baylor. He still had no aspirations to play the game professionally until White Sox catcher Ray Schalk, who was on his way to spring training, visited the Baylor team, saw Lyons pitch and recommended him to his manager, Kid Gleason. Lyons signed with the White Sox, never spent a day in the minor leagues and wound up going to the Hall of Fame.
   36. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:32 PM (#5861390)
Ted Lyons was a trombone player in the Baylor Bears band in 1919 when a brawl broke out during a Baylor-Texas A&M football game. Lyons carefully set down his trombone and joined the fight

Superb.
   37. Elvis Posted: July 12, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5861394)
FWIW - Currently the official scorer has very little discretion on when to award the win. The only case is when the starting pitcher goes fewer than five innings, leaves with his team in the lead and the team maintains the lead the rest of the way.
   38. Rally Posted: July 12, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5861420)
In OOTP - the SB record (season or career) is very easy to break. I mean - I think it's still as counter-productive to run every time you get on base if you can't achieve the 75%+ success rate, but such stuff is a lot easy to overlook in a game.


Too easy to break it in computer games. The record in my leagues is 309, the guy who did it was also caught 132 times. Reached base 234 times, no homers, 26 doubles and 8 triples. I'm having trouble wrapping my mind about what percent of the time he ran compared to opportunities.

1. Some of his outs could be SB opps, either reach on error or reach on fielder's choice
2. In some of his times on base, he might be blocked by other runners
3. He's got 3 SB opps after a bases empty single, but only if he's successful on the first two of them.

Most of the time he stole second and third every chance he got, and quite often tried to steal home. One half of his times on base ended with a caught stealing. He scored 80 runs.

In real life it's completely impossible considering the wear and tear and the way opponents would respond to that. In computer baseball you may not have those considerations, but it's still counterproductive to scoring runs.
   39. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5861426)
Stealing home may have been taking it a bit too far.
   40. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 12, 2019 at 02:32 PM (#5861433)
Oh wow, I love this. Reminds me of the "Breaking Madden" series on SB Nation.
   41. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 02:38 PM (#5861434)
Sure - but it's only too easy because even in the mode where you can get fired.... you don't get fired because you managed like an idiot :-) Well, I suppose you do if you manage like an idiot and win only 70 games - but then, you also get fired if you manage brilliantly and only win 70 games.... so hey - maybe it IS quite realistic!

309 is amazing though.... I'd have to crack open an old version to see - but I believe my record was something more like 150.

I have no numbers to prove this out - but one thing that seems perhaps broken specific only SBs is double steals. It feels like I have a too high success rate on these, even if either of the runners isn't a SB threat. I do a lot of double steals.

On the other side - my catchers always tend to have really bad CS percentages. I presume this has a lot to do with me very (very) rarely bothering with any hold runners, much less throw to 1st and pitchouts. The AI seems to run like crazy on me - and succeed WAY too often. As I normally manage the Cubs - Contreras has a moderately decent arm, but I usually end up upgrading at catcher strictly to get a guy with a 65+ arm (I use the 20-80 scale) behind the plate so the AI stops stealing so much against me. This is usually successful - my rates tend to stay marginally poor to average at best, but I give up a lot less SBs.
   42. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5861437)
BTW - an aside for the math people...

Does the matrix/bar for success change on a double steal? In theory - at least one of your runners is going to advance a base. In OOTP, I notice that the catcher tends to shoot for the guy going to 2B at least as much as the lead runner, though I haven't paid enough attention to see if the AI tends to go after the worse of the two base stealers.
   43. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 12, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5861440)
I'm in the middle of a very long-running game (92 seasons so far), with the environment tweaked for more one run strategies. The SB record is 141 (with only 19 CS), held by a guy named Scholarius Jones from a computer team, in a year he hit 390/455/466 in 161 games. He was a great base stealer and singles hitter who had a year with an insanely flukey BABIP, which strikes me as something that would eventually really happen if early 1980s conditions had continued in MLB for a century. I'd agree that both pickoffs and double steals happen far too frequently, but I think the totals are OK unless you really force something.

(My favorite OOTP record holder is Teófilo Gómez, who owns all of the counting records for starting pitchers -- wins, losses, IP, starts, CGs, Ks, BBs, hits allowed, HR allowed. He was an absolute freak, the top #3 starter in the league for about 20 straight years, who made at least 32 starts every seasons from age 19 to 45. He managed to go 16-16 four times, and won 378 games and zero Cy Young awards. That's really really hard to do.)
   44. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5861442)
Curious, Fern, how do you tweak the aging and talent change randomness controls?
   45. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 12, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5861454)
Aging/dev are .880/1.100 for both batters & pitchers, and talent change is 120. At one point at least those were broadly normal settings, though it's been a while since I spent time on the OOTP forums. It definitely leads to longer careers in some cases.

Except for the total outlier who holds the SP records, most of the other counting records (except for home runs, wins, and complete games) seem to be totals that would be somewhere between 8th and 10th in real MLB. The games played leader is tied with Ripken for #8, the #2 in starts is between Gaylord Perry & Pud Galvin for #9.
   46. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5861459)
It's been a while and an edition or two since I've run a long sim, but as I recall I had a tough time getting a blend where careers seemed realistically long, fewer players suddenly lost it in the middle of their primes, and prospects developed according to a realistic and unpredictable schedule.
   47. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: July 12, 2019 at 03:51 PM (#5861461)
Yeah, I think that in my settings prospects succeed a bit too often and few players fall off a cliff early, barring major injury. My understanding is that turning the aging curve way down and the injury frequency way up gets something more realistic, but in my experience the game then has a tendency to become an exercise in managing the DL and the AAA shuttle. Which is no fun.
   48. PreservedFish Posted: July 12, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5861465)
I played a long historical recreation league, which was really fun, but the player development was wack. Players would debut in peak form and then (generally) get worse throughout their prime.
   49. Walt Davis Posted: July 12, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5861481)
In an early and very silly version of MLB (2000? 2001?), I got Lance Johnson over 200 steals (with an awesome percentage) ... I think he also hit close to 400. Team as a whole must have pushed 800 steals. Also they mis-entered Mussina's knuckle curve as a knuckler and allowed him to throw it at about 95 MPH. You try hitting that.
   50. bunyon Posted: July 12, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5861494)
Love the discussion but have little to add.

IRL, the best improvement that could be made to the Win is if it were not mandatory to award one in each game. Starter goes 4 and gives up 8 but you come back to win with a series of guys going 1 or less? No one gets a win.

I'd say if a starter goes 7 or 8 shutout innings but you only win by scoring two in the ninth, he deserves a win.

Anyway, a Win should be something you have to do a good thing to get.
   51. bfan Posted: July 12, 2019 at 05:32 PM (#5861495)
I played a long historical recreation league, which was really fun, but the player development was wack. Players would debut in peak form and then (generally) get worse throughout their prime.


It was a Dominican league; they had lied about their age. See Pujols, Albert.
   52. GregD Posted: July 12, 2019 at 05:33 PM (#5861496)
IRL, the best improvement that could be made to the Win is if it were not mandatory to award one in each game. Starter goes 4 and gives up 8 but you come back to win with a series of guys going 1 or less? No one gets a win.

I'd say if a starter goes 7 or 8 shutout innings but you only win by scoring two in the ninth, he deserves a win.

Anyway, a Win should be something you have to do a good thing to get.
why have Wins at all? Why not just a version of Quality Start, if that's what you want to know?
   53. bunyon Posted: July 12, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5861498)
Would be fine with me.
   54. The Run Fairy Posted: July 12, 2019 at 05:50 PM (#5861499)
I played a long historical recreation league, which was really fun, but the player development was wack. Players would debut in peak form and then (generally) get worse throughout their prime.


MVP Baseball had a similar problem. You could boost a few individual players by playing a limited number of minigames during spring training, but often prospects stalled out and established (but still young) superstars inexplicably declined after having good seasons. I made up for this by creating a convoluted platoon system involving Matt LeCroy, Wily Mo Pena, the MLBPA-approved fill-in version of Frank Menechino (T Murphy), pre-MVP Justin Morneau, and Hee-Seop Choi that would've made Casey Stengel say "hey, maybe you should have a few regular players, this lineup is changing too often." But then my outfield was Cobb/Ichiro!/Ruth, so I could afford to skimp on the margins.

I didn't ever really bother trying to break records, but I did try to have Hoyt Wilhelm top Mike Marshall's 1974 season (106 games, 208 1/3 IP). IIRC, even with the knuckleball it wasn't easy to do it with MVP's pitcher stamina system.
   55. Zonk is Back Where He Came From Posted: July 12, 2019 at 06:00 PM (#5861503)
I also tend to tweak the player dev/player aging factors per the general range suggestion, but I read on the Ootp forum that actually, the vanilla settings work if you legitimately sim 100 or so seasons but most people don’t. I tend to top out at two generations, and I usually don’t get far. So, if play fewer seasons, you “feel” like you should get more Nolan Ryan’s or Barry bonds.... but the math apparently says you don’t.

I mean, we’ve all seen some inner circle guys... but how many real freaks?
   56. SoSH U at work Posted: July 12, 2019 at 06:14 PM (#5861504)

FWIW - Currently the official scorer has very little discretion on when to award the win. The only case is when the starting pitcher goes fewer than five innings, leaves with his team in the lead and the team maintains the lead the rest of the way.


That's not true. If the relief pitcher who took over the game was "ineffective in a brief appearance," the official scorekeeper can assign the win to the subsequent most effective pitcher.

Sadly, few scorekeepers actually avail themselves of this option.

And I like wins. They're a shitty way of determining value, but I don't care too much about that. They're fun little creatures that lead to interesting some fun statistical oddities and trivia.


   57. Yanigan Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:22 PM (#5861565)
#22: Some kind of no no-decision honorable mention goes to 1972 Gaylord Perry, who made 40 starts and finished 24-16, plus a save in his lone relief appearance.
   58. Howie Menckel Posted: July 12, 2019 at 11:24 PM (#5861567)
Gaylord was one tough Focker
   59. bobm Posted: July 13, 2019 at 09:53 AM (#5861596)
[42] BTW - an aside for the math people...

Does the matrix/bar for success change on a double steal? In theory - at least one of your runners is going to advance a base.



The required success rates for a double steal with less than two outs is lower than “normal” because outside of stealing home, the change in run expectancy we see from a first-and-second situation to a second-and-third situation is the largest increase of any movement on the run expectancy chart when considering the possible outcomes from conventional stolen bases. In other words, a double steal is more valuable than a single steal, which makes plenty of sense. In addition, the increased benefit of a double steal beyond a single steal is proportionally stronger than the more severe penalty of failed attempt.


Link
   60. Infinite Yost (Voxter) Posted: July 13, 2019 at 09:54 AM (#5861597)
BTW, if you want to do this the easy way, you put Sandy Koufax in a 4-man rotation and then keep un-retiring him until about 1983. Because OOTP assumes that his truncated career is just the result of the game running out of realtime, the second half of his career is often even more spectacular than the first half. And he will always end up with more K's than Nolan Ryan could dream of, even if you don't cheat.
   61. Darren Posted: July 13, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5861611)
I wonder if we'll see some relievers racking up crazy high win totals, like 25+ in the coming years. It seems possible if teams decide the best use of their best pitchers is for them to pitch 3-4 IP every few days. Start with an opener, after a couple innings, see if you're winning or tied, and if it is then go to your best pitcher.
   62. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 13, 2019 at 01:27 PM (#5861616)
Ted Lyons was a trombone player in the Baylor Bears band in 1919 when a brawl broke out during a Baylor-Texas A&M football game. Lyons carefully set down his trombone and joined the fight, but during the melee, his trombone was crushed, and he couldn't afford a new one. Lyons had been a good high school baseball player, so he decided, since he had no instrument to play and had lost his musical scholarship, to try to play baseball at Baylor.
This, like most old-time player stories, is total BS. He was good enough to get a music scholarship, but the school didn’t provide an instrument, and then yanked his scholarship rather than buy him a new trombone? Come on. That’s absurd.
   63. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 13, 2019 at 01:38 PM (#5861618)
This, like most old-time player stories, is total BS. He was good enough to get a music scholarship, but the school didn’t provide an instrument, and then yanked his scholarship rather than buy him a new trombone? Come on. That’s absurd.


Lyons' SABR bio agrees with you.

Lyons once said he went to Baylor on a trombone scholarship, but lost his scholarship when someone stomped on his trombone during a fight. That sounds like one of his trademark tall tales.
   64. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 13, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5861620)
Heh. Nice. The ‘just happened to be discovered by Ray Schalk on his way to spring training’ part is also probably BS or at least greatly exaggerated. It baffles me that so many obviously ridiculous stories have gotten repeated as truth for so many years.
   65. Pat Rapper's Delight (as quoted on MLB Network) Posted: July 13, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5861621)
He was good enough to get a music scholarship, but the school didn’t provide an instrument, and then yanked his scholarship rather than buy him a new trombone? Come on. That’s absurd.

It may well be a tall tale, but my experience playing in two different university band programs is that the department provides the instrument if it's prohibitively expensive or not a "typical" band instrument.... stuff like piccolos, English horns, French horns, bass and contrabass clarinets, oboes, tubas, concert percussion, etc.

Common band instruments like flutes, clarinets, trumpets, and -- yes -- trombones? The student is expected to provide that.
   66. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 13, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5861622)
Common band instruments like flutes, clarinets, trumpets, and -- yes -- trombones? The student is expected to provide that.
OK, fine, but would a school yank a scholarship to a student who couldn’t afford to replace a trombone destroyed in a fight at a school event? Moreover, if Lyons couldn’t afford a new trombone, how did he continue to attend Baylor when he had to pay tuition? Just buy the damn trombone and get your scholarship back. Much cheaper that way.
   67. PreservedFish Posted: July 13, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5861624)
Great story. I choose to believe.
   68. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: July 13, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5861626)
IRL, the best improvement that could be made to the Win is if it were not mandatory to award one in each game. Starter goes 4 and gives up 8 but you come back to win with a series of guys going 1 or less? No one gets a win.

I'd say if a starter goes 7 or 8 shutout innings but you only win by scoring two in the ninth, he deserves a win.

Anyway, a Win should be something you have to do a good thing to get.


I agree. starter leaves after 8 up 4-0. reliever comes in the 9th, allows 4 but finishes the inning. Home team scores one in the bottom. That should be either a no win, or a win for the starter. To give a win to the guy who allowed 4 in one inning is absurd.
   69. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: July 13, 2019 at 02:27 PM (#5861627)
That's not true. If the relief pitcher who took over the game was "ineffective in a brief appearance," the official scorekeeper can assign the win to the subsequent most effective pitcher.


You are correct, but if there is no subsequent reliever, he has to give it to the ineffective one. And it's ridiculous that it can only be a subsequent effective pitcher, not the starter.

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