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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Phil Coke, Not the Real Thing? - Baseball Analytics Blog - MLB Baseball Analytics

I bet we’ll see Valverde in the closer role at some point in the series.

IT IS NOT JUST AN INCREASING BATTING AVERAGE AGAINST THAT SPEAKS TO CONCERNS ABOUT COKE, A QUICK LOOK UNDER-THE-HOOD SHOWS THAT THE LEFTY STRUGGLES AGAINST RIGHT-HANDED BATTERS.

Split AB R H BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHB as LHP 101 20 40 10 21 .396 .446 .604 1.050
vs LHB as LHP 118 14 31 8 30 .263 .313 .373 .685
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com:
Generated 10/24/2012.

Of course, thus far in the postseason it’s been different for Coke: overall batters are hitting .154 against him with lefties and righties each hitting .154 (2-for-14 with one walk).

If that’s the pitcher that faces the Giants, you can assume that Leyland will have a Coke and a smile.

Jim Furtado Posted: October 24, 2012 at 02:20 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: sabermetrics, tigers, world series

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   1. Run, Mookie, Run Posted: October 24, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4281651)
This article makes the same point and says Coke's RHBs are .474 BABIP

Leyland not committing to a closer for World Series

"Just going to play it by ear, see what happens," Leyland said


about Coke:
"I think we'd be putting the cart before the horse all of a sudden to say he's a definite full-time closer," Leyland said. "I'll leave it at that. He did a terrific job, no doubt about that."

   2. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:08 PM (#4281707)
Nothing against Coke, but I do think it's funny how he's suddenly being praised as the solution to the closer problem when just a few weeks ago, Coke trotting in from the bullpen would make a lot of Tigers fans groan. And let's not forget his save in Game 3 was very Valverde-like.
   3. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4281768)
Did we link to the recent Grantland article on Coke (by primate Jonah Keri)? 'Cause it was really good.
   4. JJ1986 Posted: October 24, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4281769)
The Yankees were overwhelmingly left-handed. It doesn't make much sense for Coke to close against Scutaro-Sandoval-Posey-Pence, but he should go in against Belt-Blanco-Crawford.
   5. Tim D Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4281886)
Coke was only closing against NY because of all the lefties. Period.
   6. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4281904)
I agree with Tim/#5. Leyland's going to mix and match more in this series because the Giants are more balanced offensively and their bench (Huff excepted) is right-handed. I anticipate that you'll see a lot more of Dotel/Benoit/Valverde, maybe even some of Porcello (who has pitched a grand total of 1/3 inning in the postseason so far).

-- MWE
   7. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:56 PM (#4281945)

Yeah, the assumption that it's either Coke or Valverde is bizarre. I'd guess Benoit and Alburquerque will see some high leverage innings.
   8. Jorge Luis Bourjos (Walewander) Posted: October 24, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4281949)

Every Walks Clog Up The Bases post since 1 October "Nothing against the Tigers and their fans.... but (insert uninteresting diatribe about the players not being that good or the people on my Facebook timeline)"
   9. valuearbitrageur Posted: October 25, 2012 at 12:00 AM (#4282701)
Coke's numbers are the class of the "worst" list Bill provided. He's walking fewer and striking out as many or more, as everyone else on that list. Obviously a weak compliment, and given his struggles against RHB, you have to use him sparingly. But evidence is, he's a bit better than his numbers.
   10. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2012 at 12:52 AM (#4282720)
You pretty much have to be Billy Wagner to be a left handed closer.

I am sure that Leyland is smart enough to avoid using Coke in tight spots against righties.
   11. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 25, 2012 at 01:40 AM (#4282732)
Every Walks Clog Up The Bases post since 1 October "Nothing against the Tigers and their fans.... but (insert uninteresting diatribe about the players not being that good or the people on my Facebook timeline)"


Get real. It's more like 75 percent of my posts!

And all I meant there was it's funny how a handful of games, given the right context, can change the perception of a player in the eyes of a lot of fans. Coke has been one of those guys that a lot of Tigers fans seem to dislike or, at least, not have much faith in. Not until now, anyway.

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