but, unlike Thomas, Konerko is getting better as his career extends.

Steroids!

Konerko's now had the two best seasons of his career and 34 and 35.

If I could have picked one player in his prime in 2006 or so who would fall off the cliff by 2010, it would have been Konerko. He was horribly overrated because he wasn't a very good hitter and he gave back 15-20 runs in the field and on the bases. No one better encapsulated the concept of "old player skills". But somehow he's started hitting enough in his mid-30s to make up for the rest of his game.

In conclusion, steroids.

Konerko should pass 400 HRs sometime early this year and you'd have to say that if he wants it, he's probably got a pretty darn good shot at 500.

Favorite toy puts him at 58% to get there...

Any chance he goes? And if so - is he the worst HoFer in Cooperstown? He doesn't even have a Rice peak to speak of... He'd almost certainly finish with an SLG under .500, an OPS+ below 120, and NO black ink (except one year leading the league in GDP). 4 AS, sparse MVP votes...

Maybe with steroids, the magic of 500 is gone and buried... but if folks want to keep him out, I'd suggest getting the bacne rumors started sooner rather than later.

Maybe with steroids, the magic of 500 is gone and buried... but if folks want to keep him out, I'd suggest getting the bacne rumors started sooner rather than later.

Interesting thing: because Konerko's Indian Summer is happening post-Mitchell, I think there's a decent chance that 500 HR could be *somewhat* restored. Konerko could get quite the Rice/narrative push:

- Writers only really see his bat, and don't realize how bad his glove is. Moreover, there's an argument that because Konerko's manning the position into his mid-late 30's, so how bad could he be?

- Konerko's 05/06 really gave him something of a rub as a star

- He's got a good argument for best player on the 05 White Sox (unless you take WAR into account.)

- His best years came when he cut the k's and started walking more. Hard work, etc.

- Doesn't Konerko have a rep as a smart/good guy type in Chicago?

- He'll probably play with the White Sox for the rest of his career, which will give him significant brand ID with a major club.

I wouldn't put Konerko in the HOF unless he keeps this up for a while longer, but if he does...

is he the worst HoFer in Cooperstown?

Probably not, but you have to dig down to the Lloyd Waners of the world to get to worse guys (and I would guess you could make a non-ridiculous case that Little Poison was better than Paulie). Jim Rice blows him away, and all of the knocks we liked to give to Rice - DP-machine, lousy fielder, played in a ballpark extra-favorable to him - apply at least as much to Konerko. For example, Comiskey (yes, I'm old) is a HUGE homer haven: Konerko's career H/R split for HRs is 237/159 and 45/25 the past two seasons.

Doesn't Konerko have a rep as a smart/good guy type in Chicago?

Yes, Paul Konerko is extremely well regarded by the sports media in Chicago (and not-Sox-hating fans). If he hits 500 HRs, he'll get significant HOF support from the Chicago media, and Chicago has a pretty strong number of HOF voters. I still don't think he makes it, though, because his career really doesn't stack up to Jim Rice in any meaningful way. Jim Rice really was considered one of the best hitters of his generation and his 1978 season was viewed as being quite special (moreso than it really was) - Rice getting 400 TB in 1978 was actually quite remarked about at the time. Yes, Konerko was (arguably) the best position player on the 2005 White Sox, but unless he (and the White Sox) do something more here in the next couple of years, I don't think that's going to go very far.

I think 500 HRs is dead and buried as an elect-me milestone. 27 more homers would have done nothing for Carlos Delgado's case, for instance. Paul Konerko will be lucky to break 5% in his first ballot, barring a Bondsian late career peak.

If Konerko reaches 500, he'll be the mutant step-son of the 500 homer club that the rest of the family hides in the basement and feeds fish heads through the bars of his cage (I had a messed up childhood).

Who's the worst player in the 500 club now? Sosa? (if you prefer career over peak). Palmeiro? (if you're more of a peak person)

Konerko is significantly beneath either of them.

Yes, Paul Konerko is extremely well regarded by the sports media in Chicago (and not-Sox-hating fans). If he hits 500 HRs, he'll get significant HOF support from the Chicago media, and Chicago has a pretty strong number of HOF voters. I still don't think he makes it, though, because his career really doesn't stack up to Jim Rice in any meaningful way. Jim Rice really was considered one of the best hitters of his generation and his 1978 season was viewed as being quite special (moreso than it really was) - Rice getting 400 TB in 1978 was actually quite remarked about at the time. Yes, Konerko was (arguably) the best position player on the 2005 White Sox, but unless he (and the White Sox) do something more here in the next couple of years, I don't think that's going to go very far.

I don't think Konerko makes it unless this late peak continues until 37-38. However, if it does and Konerko finishes with, say, 525 HR? I think he could present a decent narrative case that could up and Morris one day.

WRT Rice, of course Rice was the better player and he assuredly received greatest buzz as such during his career (I mean, TEH FEAR!1 and all that jazz), but I think there's a non-zero chance that Konerko could narrative his way into the HOF someday in a sort-of-similar way. The biggest reason is probably that he'd be championed by the Chicago media, and that's a pretty good champion to have.

The big difference here is that Rice has 78, Morris has 84 + Game 7 '91 and Konerko doesn't really have that sort of a signature beyond the 05 White Sox, and that's not as strong an argument.

And that team sort of pitched themselves to a title, didn't they?

And that team sort of pitched themselves to a title, didn't they?

Totally, but Konerko was their best position player and if he finishes his career with the White Sox, well... narrative.

If he gets to 500 I could see narrative keeping him on the ballot somewhere in the 10-25% range for a while. I'd be awfully surprised if he got anywhere close to being elected though.

Who's the worst player in the 500 club now? Sosa? (if you prefer career over peak). Palmeiro? (if you're more of a peak person)

That's a pretty intriguing question, actually. Would it be Raffy? What about Killebrew?

That's a pretty intriguing question, actually. Would it be Raffy? What about Killebrew?

I guess it probably depends an awful lot on defensive valuations...

Eddie Murray? Gary Sheffield?

FWIW - just quickly checking - it appears that Ernie Banks has the lowest OPS+ (122) of any 500 club member... Murray is at 129, Sosa at 128.

Bottom 5 by WAR are Sosa at 59.7, Killebrew at 61.1, McGwire at 63.1, Sheffield at 63.3, and then Banks at 64.4

Not only did their pitch their way to the title, but the narrative about their offense was about stealing bases and sacrifice bunting, not the lumbering 1B who

FWIW - just quickly checking - it appears that Ernie Banks has the lowest OPS+ (122) of any 500 club member... Murray is at 129, Sosa at 128.

Banks is pretty clearly the worst HITTER in the group, but since his peak was as a shortstop, there's no way he's the worst player.

Bottom 5 by WAR are Sosa at 59.7, Killebrew at 61.1, McGwire at 63.1, Sheffield at 63.3, and then Banks at 64.4

I think Sosa's ranking depends almost entirely upon your opinion of peak vs career. His overall career as a non gold glove corner outfielder with "only" a 128 OPS+ is borderline for a HOFer (or HoMer, I should say). But his 5 year peak is really good. 1998-2002 amounts for the majority of Sosa's overall value.

WAR defensive rankings absolutely HATE Sheffield. -18! He couldn't really have been THAT bad, could he?

I think Sosa's ranking depends almost entirely upon your opinion of peak vs career.

Yeah, given that you are dealing with all HoF'ers or close, I would probably go with WAA over WAR, but I don't have WAA handy.

Konerko's late career surge is ODD

what's going on?

1: Take and rake, walking more and hittng more HRs
Answer: No. 2010: K rate was 17.4%, career average is 14.5% MLB average is 17.2, Konerko has a few years around 16%, but 2010 was his highest K year- but he dropped to 13.9 in 2011. BTW 2011 notwithstanding, Konerko tends to do better the more he Ks

Walk rate, 11.4 and 12.1 in 2010/2011, that's pretty much his walk rate since 2004.
HR rate 6.2% and 4.9%, his career is 4.8, but he's been between 4.3 and 6.4 since 2004

BABIP, .326 and .304, career is .282, but he'd hit .326 in 2006 and .310 in 2000....

hmmm... He didn't actually do anything in 2010/2011 he hadn't done before, but, his previous BABIP highs came in years when he either had a power trough or a BB trough - in 2010/2011 he his at his top end BABIP while simultaneously having both a good walk rate and HR rate (good by his own standards).

My guess is that Konerko is better when he's trying to crush the ball, he basically went too far in 2003 trying to make contact, career low K rate, also career low ISO and BABIP
In 2010 he absolutely went to town on pitchers when he was ahead in the count, 200 OPS above his career average in that situation

I think Konerko was a guy, who when the pitcher was ahead- changed - he became defensive, he sought merely to put the ball in play- that's not Konerko, he can't be Ichiro- no matter what the count
later on in his career, he's a guy who changes when he's ahead in the count- more focused on getting something he can crush.

Or it could be steroids I suppose

Konerko has turned into a guy that can use all fields. I could be wrong, but early in his career wasn't he primarily a fast ball pull hitter? Now he's able to take off-speed stuff into the gap. These are just my intuitions as a Sox fan, I'd like to see the data and will try and find some here in a minute.

Those aren’t quite Frank Thomas numbers but, unlike Thomas, Konerko is getting better as his career extends.

Grrr ...

1. "Not quite"? 282/359/500/122 is "not quite" 301/419/555/156. Hey, what's 115 points of OPS between friends?

2. While technically true, Konerko's "better" 34-35 were 160 and 144 OPS+. Thomas had some tough seasons at 33-34 but his 35-36 were 146 and 156. The improving Konerko is now as good as the declining Thomas.

There's no shame in not being as good as Thomas but there should be shame in pretending Konerko is anywhere near as good as Thomas.

I don't think Konerko's HoF chances would be very good even if he squeaks over 500 HR but he would do at least a little better than McGriff.

2. While technically true, Konerko's "better" 34-35 were 160 and 144 OPS+. Thomas had some tough seasons at 33-34 but his 35-36 were 146 and 156. The improving Konerko is now as good as the declining Thomas.

The 156 was over 74 games.

I don't think Konerko's HoF chances would be very good even if he squeaks over 500 HR but he would do at least a little better than McGriff.

Think so? McGriff was at least legitimately one of the best hitters in the game for an extended stretch (1988-1994). Konerko never was for more than a year or two at a time. And despite playing most of his peak in the pre-sillyball years, Crime Dawg's still got better numbers than Paul. When you adjust for era (134 OPS+ compared to 122 and in more PA's), it's not even very close.

Think so? McGriff was at least legitimately one of the best hitters in the game for an extended stretch (1988-1994). Konerko never was for more than a year or two at a time. And despite playing most of his peak in the pre-sillyball years, Crime Dawg's still got better numbers than Paul. When you adjust for era (134 OPS+ compared to 122 and in more PA's), it's not even very close.

Well, McGriff split that peak across three cities that aren't connected by a common division. Konerko has spent all his meaningful career with one team. He's the captain of the Sox, leader of the World Series team, and he'll probably be the franchise leader in many key categories by the time he's done. So he seems to have a good chance at securing a loyal voting bloc that McGriff might not have.

Here is a graph of Konerko's ISO as a function of his K%, I excluded from the data his 2 partial seasons.

Konerko is a fine, fine HoVG addition.

I never really realized how the shape of Ernie Banks' career is almost the perfect complement to Sammy Sosa's. They really only overlap in age as elite hitters at 29. I don't really know much about Banks beyond the cartoony Mr. Cub/"Let's play two!" stuff--why did he go from great to mediocre so quickly, and why did he switch to first base when he was only 31?

Sheffield played for 8 teams? Wow, that never registered with me.

I never really realized how the shape of Ernie Banks' career is almost the perfect complement to Sammy Sosa's. They really only overlap in age as elite hitters at 29. I don't really know much about Banks beyond the cartoony Mr. Cub/"Let's play two!" stuff--why did he go from great to mediocre so quickly, and why did he switch to first base when he was only 31?

His knees were going out on him and so he couldn't play SS any more. So he went from great SS to average (at best) 1B

Sheffield played for 8 teams? Wow, that never registered with me.

And he made the All Star team and cracked the top 10 in MVP voting for 5 of them. Those have got to be records, right?

Konerko is a fine, fine HoVG addition.

I'd put him in the Hall of Pretty Good with Don Baylor, Andres Galarraga and Greg Vaughn.

I think Konerko is the outer ring of HoVG.
If he has a couple more seasons like his last couple, then I think he's a solid member of the HoVG.

FTFA:

Garza's fastball was still in the mid-90s after 110 pitches, and of course he would have had the shutout had he not uncorked one of the worst throws ever to first base in the ancient ballpark. He exploded in the dugout tunnel after coming out of the game, letting everyone see how highly his engine had been revving even with an eight-run lead, but collected himself quickly. He told reporters and himself that he'd try again for a complete game "six days from now,'' and I think he meant it.

Since going to the NL, Matt Garza has struck out 8.9/9, walked 2.8/9 and given up .6 HR/9. And he looked lights out a couple of days ago. He is probably one of the worst fielding pitchers in the league but its cool to see him take this step forward and become a legit ace. He always had the stuff and now he's figured out how to harness it. I'm glad he did it after leaving the AL East.