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Friday, September 28, 2012

Phillies mathematically eliminated from playoff contention

The Phillies playoff run is over.  Carlos Lee’s RBI single in the ninth inning gave the Miami Marlins a 2-1 win over Philadelphia in the opener of a three-game set on Friday…

The loss, though, guarantees that the team will not be playing in the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:27 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: miami, phillies

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   1. JRVJ Posted: September 28, 2012 at 10:48 PM (#4248648)
I'm not entirely convinced that the Phils are done in 2013. But it will depend A LOT on whether Roy Halladay can be ROY HALLADAY.

Other than that, Cliff Lee ultimately ended up having a Cliff Lee season, so the Phils have 2 aces (for sure) on their 2013 rotation.

   2. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:14 PM (#4248676)
This is such a sad occasion, I could cry over my Wiz Wit.
   3. jacjacatk Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4248680)
Other than that, Cliff Lee ultimately ended up having a Cliff Lee season, so the Phils have 2 aces (for sure) on their 2013 rotation.


Lee's pretty much having a "Cliff Lee season". After tonight his ERA will be down to 3.11, averaging over 7 IP per start and a 7+ K/BB ratio. The 15 no-decisions aren't really his responsibility.

They're going to need Halladay to bounce back (possible, maybe even likely, but worrisome), cobble together a competent bullpen to put between the starters and Paplebon (looks doable), and get better offense from several positions (going to be tough given the ages of most of the guys who aren't getting bumped out, and the fact that they aren't likely going to be finding a whole lot more money to spend). And that's all without considering how tough the NL East could be.
   4. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4248683)
Cliff Lee going 6-8 in 28 starts with a 127 era+ has to be one of the more anomalous seasons of all time. I know someone on here proposed that roughly speaking, even in this day and age, that a pitcher gets one decision per 9 innings pitched. By that math, Lee should have had 22 decisions, instead he got 14.
   5. JRVJ Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4248685)
The Phils have to fill-up one infield spot (3B, or 2B if Utley moves to 3B), one or two OF spots, plus 2 reliever spots.

Yes, the Phils are a little bit short on money, but it's not like they can't fill-up these 5 spots with mid-level players (they COULD move Utley to 3B, Rollins to 2B and install Galvis at SS. Very unlikely, but they would have an insanely good defense, which would make up for Galvis' bad bat).

And if memory serves me right, Halladay and Utley are off-the books after 2013. Rollins is signed through 2014 and Papelbon through 2015. Both are tradeable, if the Phils are falling off a cliff after 2013.

Go for it, I say, but don't burn your 1st round pick in 2013.
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4248688)
Just looking at baseball reference, there have been only 8 pitchers to have less than 15 decisions while pitching at least 190 innings.
Rk            Player ERADec    IP Year  Tm  G GS CG SHO GF  W L W-LSV  ERA
1         Craig Swan  143  15 207.1 1978 NYM 29 28  5   1  0  9 6 .600  0 2.43
2      Joey Hamilton  132  15 204.1 1995 SDP 31 30  2   2  1  6 9 .400  0 3.08
3    Sloppy Thurston  127  15 195.2 1923 TOT 46 13  8   0 30  7 8 .467  4 3.13
4          Cliff Lee  127  14 198.0 2012 PHI 28 28  0   0  0  6 8 .429  0 3.18
5       Odalis Perez  126  13 196.1 2004 LAD 31 31  0   0  0  7 6 .538  0 3.25
6          Mike Nagy  124  14 196.2 1969 BOS 33 28  7   1  2 12 2 .857  0 3.11
7       Kenny Rogers  108  14 195.1 1999 TOT 31 31  5   1  0 10 4 .714  0 4.19
8     Firpo Marberry  108  12 197.2 1932 WSH 54 15  8   1 26  8 4 .667 13 4.01 
   7. Davo Dozier Posted: September 28, 2012 at 11:43 PM (#4248693)
Good ol' Sloppy Thurston.
   8. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:06 AM (#4248709)
I heard that Ginger gave the Professor a Sloppy Thurston.
   9. PeteF3 Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:15 AM (#4248716)
Since apparently no one else is going to mention it, congratulations to Homer Bailey for his no-hitter. Not only did he throw a no-no, he had to do it while making a 1-0 lead stand up for 9 innings. At one point in the 7th inning, Andrew McCutchen was the tying run at 2nd before he got greedy and was thrown out trying to take 3rd also.

Getting no-hit to end your bid at a winning season after 19 years has to be a real kick in the teeth for the Pirates.
   10. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:20 AM (#4248719)
Since apparently no one else is going to mention it, congratulations to Homer Bailey for his no-hitter. Not only did he throw a no-no, he had to do it while making a 1-0 lead stand up for 9 innings. At one point in the 7th inning, Andrew McCutchen was the tying run at 2nd before he got greedy and was thrown out trying to take 3rd also.


Think about how many no-hitters Jack Morris would have thrown if his team had just stopped at one run!
   11. Walt Davis Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:56 AM (#4248731)
Poor Odalis Perez.

He has two monster years. In one, he throws 222 innings at 127 ERA+ but his team doesn't score much for him and he goes 15-10. Not bad but c'mon. The second was the one above, 196 IP, a 126 ERA+ and a 7-6 record. Clearly the man sucked at pitching to the ...

Think about how many no-hitters Jack Morris would have thrown if his team had just stopped at one run!

You misunderstand the man's genius. He would have thrown a lot of 12-hit shutouts, not no-hitters.
   12. Walt Davis Posted: September 29, 2012 at 12:57 AM (#4248732)
Oops, forgot my first bit of snark:

Mathematically eliminated? Math is for nerds. As long as they have the gritty veteran presence of Rollins and the clutch godliness of Howard and the zen mastery of Manuel, the Phils will never be intangibly eliminated.
   13. AndrewJ Posted: September 29, 2012 at 08:16 AM (#4248764)
J-Roll's close to 100 runs scored, though with a .312 OBP. It wouldn't kill the Phillies to seek out better on-base leadoff guys in the offseason...
   14. Just a Guy Posted: September 29, 2012 at 10:11 AM (#4248793)
Lee would be in line to start once more, next Wednesday in the season finale, if the Phils choose.

My daughter is a college freshman this year. The last time the Phillies missed a playoff she was in 7th grade. Not too shabby.
   15. cercopithecus aethiops Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:00 AM (#4248811)
Why do we think the Phillies are going to be short of cash? Looks like they have around $40M to spend if the 2013 payroll is going to match 2012. And they lead MLB in attendance.
   16. JRVJ Posted: September 29, 2012 at 11:48 AM (#4248830)
15, also, the Phillies will be under the luxury tax this year, which means that they would only be penalized at 17% for anything they spend in 2013. And I seem to remember that the 2014 luxury tax line goes up by $12MM (but don't quote me on that).
   17. base ball chick Posted: September 29, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4248912)
the phils are reminding me, not in a good way, of the 06 astros - we COULD have done more if that stupid ed wade hadn't had a hate-on for luke scott and had him in the lineup all year instead of that worthless preston wilson.

and that *()^&*$#@! john smoltz (braves, yeah, i know)

anyway, looks like the same sort of problem with the minors. and the same sort of problem with 2 aces, no bullpen, one STAH! one overpaid hitter and a leadoff guy with a low OBP

phils have more money and a less, um, invloved (ahem) owner. and not being dragged down by tal smith
   18. JRVJ Posted: September 29, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4248942)
The Philly farm system should be a little stronger this year, thanks to Raul Ibañez (what? well, he was offered arbitration with an apparent hand shake deal that he wouldn't accept, and that got the Phils a Sandwich Pick after the 2nd round), and the Pence and Victorino trades.

Plus, there's a chance that the Phils' first pick is protected (so that even Amaro can't waste it), so there's hope.

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