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Saturday, July 14, 2018

Phillies Reportedly Increase Offer For Manny Machado

The Phillies have improved their offer to the Orioles for star infielder Manny Machado, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). In recent days, the Brewers, Dodgers and Yankees have been categorized as the favorites to land Machado. However, Rosenthal suggests that while the Dodgers and Yankees have the strongest offers on the table, the Brewers are beginning to fade from the mix, while the Diamondbacks are, at this point, “on [the] periphery” of the market.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 14, 2018 at 12:10 AM | 81 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: manny machado, orioles, phillies

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   1. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 14, 2018 at 11:16 AM (#5709849)
These rumors are funny. Very little detail on what's in the offers.
   2. McCoy Posted: July 14, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5709872)
Go Yankees
   3. bfan Posted: July 14, 2018 at 04:19 PM (#5709908)
without knowing the increase I would say this: just 1 more lottery ticket (some kid in the low minors with an impressive MLB skill and a huge flaw [very fast with poor hitting skills; 97 MPH fastball with no control; great bat speed with a hole in their swing; a kid who hits great and catches in the minors, but who cannot catch at an MLB level]) is like adding nothing to the mix; it is just another AA flame-out, in waiting. Yes, I understand that is an essence of a lottery ticket, but carrying the analogy further, people can buy oodles of lottery tickets and never win a thing. I see the scouts drooling over the 1 skill and never properly weighing the flaw. Put a guy on the list who is in AA or higher and has across the board greatness, and Baltimore should be interested. Otherwise, pass.
   4. Walt Davis Posted: July 14, 2018 at 05:07 PM (#5709922)
without knowing the increase

12 cheese steaks
   5. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 14, 2018 at 07:22 PM (#5709961)
Buster Olney, @Buster_ESPN

Sources: Orioles making progress and narrowing their focus in the Machado trade talks. Phillies and Brewers appear to be among the finalists.

Buster Olney, @Buster_ESPN

More on Machado: The Orioles are said to be "definitely motivated" to get a deal done ASAP, according to one evaluator familiar with the conversations.

The Orioles have to take the best deal offered. Taking a pass isn't really an option, unless the offers are all terrible, which doesn't seem that likely.
   6. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 14, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5710005)
Jim Salisbury @JSalisburyNBCS
I am getting the vibe that the Phillies are angling to land Machado AND Britton is same deal.

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN
Some of the Phillies' prospects being evaluated by the Orioles: Franklyn Kilome, 23 years old, pitcher; Jhailyn Ortiz, 19, outfielder; Arquimedes Gamboa, 20 years old, middle infielder; Adonis Medina, 21, pitcher. It'll be interesting to see if Maikel Franco is part of any offer.
   7. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 14, 2018 at 10:07 PM (#5710013)
Put a guy on the list who is in AA or higher and has across the board greatness, and Baltimore should be interested. Otherwise, pass.

That guy is a top-10 prospect, and no one is giving him up for a rental. They'd just promote him to MLB.
   8. Walt Davis Posted: July 16, 2018 at 12:46 AM (#5710411)
Arquimedes Gamboa

MLB needs that name!
   9. Nasty Nate Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:21 AM (#5710451)
Yes, I understand that is an essence of a lottery ticket, but carrying the analogy further, people can buy oodles of lottery tickets and never win a thing.
I think this is taking the analogy too far. Maybe "scratch ticket" is the better metaphor.
   10. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:36 AM (#5710455)
That's an awfully risky package (re #6) - presuming that's where the bulk of it comes from.

I like Kilome but I don't understand why he's actually moved up the prospect ranks the last couple years. He had nice numbers in a partial A ball season in 2016 (10.6 k/9), but he hasn't hit the 9 mark in either of the last two seasons and his control has stunted, if not regressed.

Gamboa is supposedly a nifty glove, but the kid has a career 227/300/319 line. Yeah, he's still young - but he's not hit ANYWHERE. Ortiz is a hotshot power bat - I believe from the same INTL class as Gamboa - but he hasn't set the minor leagues on fire either.

I presume Crawford is off the table, but I'd be at least insisting on Sixto Sanchez - Sanchez plus 3 of the other names might be a decent enough haul for Machado and Britton.
   11. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:59 AM (#5710462)
Some of the Phillies' prospects being evaluated by the Orioles: Franklyn Kilome, 23 years old, pitcher; Jhailyn Ortiz, 19, outfielder; Arquimedes Gamboa, 20 years old, middle infielder; Adonis Medina, 21, pitcher. It'll be interesting to see if Maikel Franco is part of any offer.

Machado has communicated that he will be very unhappy if not at SS in the future. I would love to put Maikel Franco in the trade and then you will have to move Kingery/Crawford to 3B.

At a turnpike rest stop I saw one of those machines that turns pennies into souvenir coins. There were 4 baseball player coins available, from 4 different teams, and one was Maikel Franco. This wasn't even in Pennsylvania, it was in Maryland! Maikel Franco?
   12. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 16, 2018 at 10:06 AM (#5710464)
Based on hype factor alone, the above named prospects (except maybe Ortiz) are all mentioned frequently by Phillies bloggers/podcasters/social media etc so it SOUNDS like a big deal from the Phillies perspective, and it also sounds like a good deal because it does not include the MOST hyped prospect Sixto Sanchez. Who knows if this reflects the reality of how good the prospects are.
   13. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 16, 2018 at 10:17 AM (#5710468)
If the Phillies want both Machado and Britton - both rentals though they may be - I don't see any way the deal doesn't include Sanchez.... at least, I think the Orioles would be morons not to insist on either him or Crawford.

I do find it pretty fascinating that the two teams who make the most sense for a Machado trading partner are neck-and-neck with each other in the same division. I think the Braves can outbid the Phillies package-wise, but my sense is that the Phillies seem more determined to strike a deal.

If the Orioles aren't doing everything they can to stoke a bidding war between two divisional foes, they're doing it wrong.
   14. Charles S., looking 4 band-aids instead of dreams Posted: July 16, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5710475)
Arquimedes Gamboa

MLB needs that name!


Don't know if he's related to Tom Gamboa, but when his team comes to the south side, there needs to be extra security to watch for the next generation of Ligues.
   15. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:02 AM (#5710505)
Machado has communicated that he will be very unhappy if not at SS in the future.

That's going to cost him a lot of money, if he sticks to it.

Manny Machado, excellent 3B, is probably worth 2 wins per season more than Manny Machado, Jeterian SS.
   16. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:52 AM (#5710546)

The Orioles have to take the best deal offered. Taking a pass isn't really an option, unless the offers are all terrible, which doesn't seem that likely.
Nah. Pass. The Orioles should just open up the vaults and pay him whatever it takes to keep him, period.
   17. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:57 AM (#5710551)
David is right in number 16 but it apparently isn’t going to happen.
   18. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 16, 2018 at 12:59 PM (#5710594)
Manny Machado, excellent 3B, is probably worth 2 wins per season more than Manny Machado, Jeterian SS.


If he was Jeterian he'd have several championship rings. I'll take all the Jeterian shortstops I can get.
   19. TomH Posted: July 16, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5710619)
And posts like #18 remind us that in a more just parallel universe, Derek Jeter would have been granted mediocre teammates. He would have scored many fewer runs (fewer times batting around the order, and less able fellas to drive him in), and likely would have moved off of SS halfway through his career (gee, like ARod unjustly was). Then he could have been the Archie Manning of MLB, or at least nothing more than Robin Yount.
   20. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 16, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5710637)
The Orioles should just open up the vaults and pay him whatever it takes to keep him, period.

If the Orioles were willing to do that, they wouldn't be in their current predicament.
   21. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 16, 2018 at 01:51 PM (#5710638)
And posts like #18 remind us that in a more just parallel universe, Derek Jeter would have been granted mediocre teammates.
There is no such parallel universe. Mystique and Aura are pan-universal.
   22. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 16, 2018 at 01:56 PM (#5710643)
If the Orioles were willing to do that, they wouldn't be in their current predicament.


Chris Davis and his contract beg to differ.
   23. Bote Man Posted: July 16, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5710649)
Noted blowhard Jim Bowden declares unequivocally that Machado will go to an NL team, in order: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. He says Manny will play in the ASG wearing an Orioles jersey for the last time, then will be traded before games start after the break.
   24. rconn23 Posted: July 16, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5710654)
The Orioles should keep Machado and ... surround him with what exactly? They don't have a terrible farm system, but it's not good. The rest of the major league roster stinks. They starting staff is abysmal.

I mean, if you offer him the highest contract in MLB history by a sizable margin, I'm sure he'd consider it. But to fill out a competitive team that has any hope of winning the next three of four years, the old man better dig deep to buy some more high-priced free agents.
   25. McCoy Posted: July 16, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5710655)
Doesn't Palmeiro want to play?
   26. jacksone (AKA It's OK...) Posted: July 16, 2018 at 03:06 PM (#5710671)
The Orioles should keep Machado and ... surround him with what exactly? They don't have a terrible farm system, but it's not good. The rest of the major league roster stinks. They starting staff is abysmal.

I mean, if you offer him the highest contract in MLB history by a sizable margin, I'm sure he'd consider it. But to fill out a competitive team that has any hope of winning the next three of four years, the old man better dig deep to buy some more high-priced free agents.


He's only 25, so there is no reason the O's shouldn't be able to compete while Machado is still producing. Having a 29 year old Machado in 2022 is still a lot better than hoping someone else will pan out and consistently put up 4+ WAR seasons.
   27. dlf Posted: July 16, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5710685)
I don't get the thought process that assumes that a team should either be an odds on favorite to make it to October or tear it down to the studs and rebuild completely. To me, there is just something fun about going to the ballpark and watching a great performer even if the team looses more than it wins. I grew up watching Rod Carew on some hopeless Twins clubs and then moved South in time to watch Dale Murphy on hapless Braves clubs. I enjoyed the heck out of that. Telling O's fans that this iffy prospect that they get for a half season rental may, one day, be half the player Machado is now seems to buy into the idea that there is no middle ground between abject failure and winning it all.
   28. rconn23 Posted: July 16, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5710703)
"He's only 25, so there is no reason the O's shouldn't be able to compete while Machado is still producing. Having a 29 year old Machado in 2022 is still a lot better than hoping someone else will pan out and consistently put up 4+ WAR seasons."

It's worth hoping if you are able to fill multiple needs with a trade. The Orioles are springing leaks all over the lineup and the rotation. If you get a great package of players, you trade him. If not, then don't. The Orioles really should have maximized the value and traded him last year. But Orioles are gonna Oriole.
   29. rconn23 Posted: July 16, 2018 at 04:04 PM (#5710714)
"I don't get the thought process that assumes that a team should either be an odds on favorite to make it to October or tear it down to the studs and rebuild completely."

There's nothing to tear down and rebuild. It's one of the two worst teams in baseball. There's one player, granted, a superstar and a good reliever - Britton. They are not a few players away, and they don't have a wave of players coming up in the farm system. They have one top 100 prospect.

If this were a Trout level player I could see the point in keeping him no matter the situation. But he's not.
   30. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5710720)
That's going to cost him a lot of money, if he sticks to it.

Manny Machado, excellent 3B, is probably worth 2 wins per season more than Manny Machado, Jeterian SS.


I disagree with the first part, even if the 2nd part is true (2 wins feels like a lot, in spite of how the numbers look right now). He's not going to get a smaller contract offer because he wants to play SS, someone will be more than happy to meet his asking price that'll be comfortable playing him there. He might theoretically hurt or reduce some offer(s) if he completely refuses to play 3b, if it eliminates a team after him completely from the running. However, I don't even think that'll be true - if his best offer includes playing 3b, I wouldn't be shocked for him to accept it.

However, even if the first part is partially true, it absolutely will not cost him "a lot" of money.
   31. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5710727)
I disagree with the first part, even if the 2nd part is true (2 wins feels like a lot, in spite of how the numbers look right now). He's not going to get a smaller contract offer because he wants to play SS, someone will be more than happy to meet his asking price that'll be comfortable playing him there. He might theoretically hurt or reduce some offer(s) if he completely refuses to play 3b, if it eliminates a team after him completely from the running. However, I don't even think that'll be true - if his best offer includes playing 3b, I wouldn't be shocked for him to accept it.

However, even if the first part is partially true, it absolutely will not cost him "a lot" of money.


If he drives out everyone who wants him to play 3B, it would have to cost him money. The fewer the bidders, the lower the offers. Especially if three of those bidders are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox, all of whom would want to play him at 3B.

As to the two wins, Machado has been an excellent 3B, something like +10/150. The position adjustment is only 5 runs. So, if Machado is -15 at SS, that's two wins. He's playing worse than that by the stats.

   32. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 16, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5710741)
If he drives out everyone who wants him to play 3B, it would have to cost him money. The fewer the bidders, the lower the offers. Especially if three of those bidders are the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox, all of whom would want to play him at 3B.


Well, I think the Dodgers have a red-headed yeti at 3B they're pretty happy with...

But on the whole, I agree. The statisticians can quibble over the numbers - but if he's going to petulantly insist on playing SS when the facts say he really shouldn't be there, his value takes a clear hit to my eyes.

As a 3B, maybe I value him a bit higher under the idea that I could stick at SS for a couple weeks in a pinch/injury/etc all things considered and live with a temporary defensive cost, but as a SS who needs to be convinced he belongs at 3B? Pass. Or at least, pay a lot less.

Sure, EVERY team can find room for a Machado in their lineup... but lots of teams are going to calculate what it costs them on defense if he insists on playing SS and adjust their pursuit accordingly.

   33. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2018 at 04:39 PM (#5710744)
his value takes a clear hit to my eyes.

His value <> how much he's going to get paid, which is all I'm trying to say.


   34. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 16, 2018 at 04:39 PM (#5710746)
Well, I think the Dodgers have a red-headed yeti at 3B they're pretty happy with...

I don't think you let a 33 y.o. block you from obtaining a 26 y.o. superstar. They could always shift Turner to 2B, or trade him.
   35. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 16, 2018 at 05:23 PM (#5710773)
His value <> how much he's going to get paid, which is all I'm trying to say.


Fair enough - though, the universe of teams that need or would be interested in an expensive upgrade at 3B or SS (even with the D hit) is smaller than the universe of teams who only have a need or wish to upgrade SS.

That said, I would admit that it sure feels like maybe we're predicating too much of this on 3rd hand relays of what Machado wants and the extent to which it's a deal-breaker.

I mean, I'm sure he does want to play SS - but I suppose the question is whether he'd take a discount to stay at SS. If team X offers, say, 10/350 but makes it clear he'll be a 3B while team Y offers 10/300 or even 10/250 with a promise to at least begin at SS, does he really pass on the 10/350?

My guess is no.

I kind of suspect a lot of this is might be more antiquated thinking on his part that he'll get paid better if he's a SS... and when push comes to shove, he'll be happy to take the biggest paycheck regardless.
   36. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2018 at 05:27 PM (#5710775)
I kind of suspect a lot of this is might be more antiquated thinking on his part that he'll get paid better if he's a SS... and when push comes to shove, he'll be happy to take the biggest paycheck regardless.

Yep, I said basically the same thing in 30. I just suspect that him wanting/preferring to play SS doesn't mean he won't play 3b. Hell, there's a good chance he'll get traded to a team that wants him to play 3b this year and would he really refuse to make that move now?

   37. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5710776)
I don't think you let a 33 y.o. block you from obtaining a 26 y.o. superstar. They could always shift Turner to 2B, or trade him.

Totally agree. Move Turner to 1b and play Bellinger in the OF somewhere. If Muncy is real, he can play 2b or OF too. I actually think if the Dodgers do get him this year, there's a really good chance he stays there and moves to 3b for them.
   38. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 16, 2018 at 05:38 PM (#5710781)
Totally agree. Move Turner to 1b and play Bellinger in the OF somewhere. If Muncy is real, he can play 2b or OF too. I actually think if the Dodgers do get him this year, there's a really good chance he stays there and moves to 3b for them.


I'm fairly annoyed by the Dodger's 'ability' to locate and/or develop what should be chaff...

Muncy... add that fraud Taylor... you could add a few others who feel like they shouldn't be as valuable as they have been in spurts (Thompson, Kike, etc).

It makes me a lot less sympathetic when yeti gets hurt or Yasiel blows up or Seager goes down.
   39. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: July 16, 2018 at 06:17 PM (#5710800)
ATL: they're not trading for machado because they don't have the appetite to pay what it'll take to keep him this offseason

SS v. 3B: the phillies have a hole at SS, so putting machado there for few years would still be a huge improvement.


i don't buy the phillies as a contender and i think they're going to fade at some point, but they have some interesting markers. they have average or better hitters at every position (except shortstop); they lead the league in pitches per plate appearance, with 3 of the top 20 individual hitters (hoskins, hernandez and santana); none of the hitters are having fluky good seasons; they have two legit top of the rotation starters; they have 2 or 3 legit relievers.


assuming the phillies come close to selling out for the rest of the season, they should be able to add around 50MM in payroll (prorated).

machado (16MM) + britton (12MM) + hamels (23MM) = 51MM

even if they add those 3, they won't be the best (or 2nd best) team in the NL, but they'll be better than a coinflip to win the division, and anything can happen once they get into the playoffs.
   40. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:46 AM (#5711014)
I think teams really need to consider if they can sign Machado next year. I'm a huge fan of striking while the iron is hot and all that, but to part with a number of good prospects for a 60 game rental is a very high price for a position player. A pitcher is a different matter. You can get an impact starter to replace your #5 guy a dozen times after the break and that can get you a good 5-6 wins difference.
   41. Bote Man Posted: July 17, 2018 at 08:17 AM (#5711064)
I think some of you are underestimating the division-leading Phillies now, just as we all did before the season started.
   42. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5711087)
A pitcher is a different matter. You can get an impact starter to replace your #5 guy a dozen times after the break and that can get you a good 5-6 wins difference.

No pitcher is worth 5 wins in 12 starts. Even a 6+ WAR pitcher is worth ~2 wins, just like a 6 WAR position player will be worth ~2 wins.
   43. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 09:36 AM (#5711088)
Hell, there's a good chance he'll get traded to a team that wants him to play 3b this year and would he really refuse to make that move now?


He has said that a team trading for him can play him where it wants for the remainder of the year.

I suspect that a team that sees him as a long-term 3B might have trouble getting him to agree to an extension, though.
   44. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5711097)
I think every team is going to find it very difficult to sign him to an extension regardless of position. Just like the SS/3B thing though, money talks.
   45. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5711111)
Rumors are a deal is done, or nearly done, and that he'll be traded before games resume Friday. Heyman speculates Dodgers are the current leader.
   46. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:36 AM (#5711119)

No pitcher is worth 5 wins in 12 starts. Even a 6+ WAR pitcher is worth ~2 wins, just like a 6 WAR position player will be worth ~2 wins.

It's not likely or expected, but some guys have come close in recent memory. Randy Johnson produced 4.3 WAR over 11 starts for the Astros in 1998, CC Sabathia gave the Brewers 4.9 WAR in 17 starts in 2008, while Verlander gave the Astros 1.8 WAR in just 5 starts last season. Depending on who they were replacing in the rotation, it's possible their true value was higher.

It can happen on the batting side as well -- Manny produced 3.5 WAR for the Dodgers in 53 games in 2008. I'm sure there are other examples. I guess the question is whether a pitcher is more likely to go on an extreme hot streak over 1/3 of a season.
   47. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:47 AM (#5711126)
He has said that a team trading for him can play him where it wants for the remainder of the year.
His generosity knows no bounds. Next thing you know, he'll be conceding the manager's right to make the batting order.
   48. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5711143)

There's nothing to tear down and rebuild. It's one of the two worst teams in baseball. There's one player, granted, a superstar and a good reliever - Britton. They are not a few players away, and they don't have a wave of players coming up in the farm system. They have one top 100 prospect.

If this were a Trout level player I could see the point in keeping him no matter the situation. But he's not.
So your argument is that unless someone is an inner-circle HOFer type, you shouldn't build a team around him?
   49. rconn23 Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5711201)
"So your argument is that unless someone is an inner-circle HOFer type, you shouldn't build a team around him?"

If you have a team that's so porous that by the time you're able to build something resembling a contender the player would at best be on the back end of his prime - then yes. If they had a farm system ready to fill in the team the next two years with top young talent alongside Machado, then by all means, try to keep him. But they don't. With Machado having the best season of his career - in a contract year - they are one of the worst teams in the league. The other option is to sign Machado to a massive deal AND dive deep into the rest free agent market. That doesn't seem like the best plan.

   50. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:20 PM (#5711208)
If you have a team that's so porous that by the time you're able to build something resembling a contender the player would at best be on the back end of his prime - then yes.


It's never the fans of the team in question that seem to be in favor of this "always trade your best player" strategy.

Half of the teams in the league are going to be bad teams, by definition. You know what makes a bad team more palatable and exciting to watch? A homegrown superstar player.
   51. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:25 PM (#5711211)
It's not likely or expected, but some guys have come close in recent memory. Randy Johnson produced 4.3 WAR over 11 starts for the Astros in 1998, CC Sabathia gave the Brewers 4.9 WAR in 17 starts in 2008, while Verlander gave the Astros 1.8 WAR in just 5 starts last season. Depending on who they were replacing in the rotation, it's possible their true value was higher.

It can happen on the batting side as well -- Manny produced 3.5 WAR for the Dodgers in 53 games in 2008. I'm sure there are other examples. I guess the question is whether a pitcher is more likely to go on an extreme hot streak over 1/3 of a season.


Right. Any player can go crazy for two months. But, I see no reason why it's more likely for a SP than a batter
   52. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5711212)
Rumors are a deal is done, or nearly done, and that he'll be traded before games resume Friday. Heyman speculates Dodgers are the current leader.


Hmmmm... well.

The non-Dodger fan upside is that they've already traded away what was quite recently, perhaps the game's best farm system. This should empty it out further. Of course, they've also graduated three pretty good players - and this fallow period would be expected and logical.

Machado certainly stays at SS with Turner back, Taylor moves back to a super ute role. That should hurt their defense, at least.

Obviously, adding someone like Machado makes any team better... but I'm groping for silver linings here.
   53. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5711213)
It's never the fans of the team in question that seem to be in favor of this "always trade your best player" strategy.

Half of the teams in the league are going to be bad teams, by definition. You know what makes a bad team more palatable and exciting to watch? A homegrown superstar player.


Agree 100%. The "tear it all down" stuff is propaganda. Every team can afford to pay a superstar $30M even during a rebuild.

The only ones who benefit from this line of thought are the rebuilding owners, who get to pocket extra profits during the tear down, rather than having to maintain a reasonable payroll to try and avoid losing 100+ games.
   54. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5711216)
Agree 100%. The "tear it all down" stuff is propaganda. Every team can afford to pay a superstar $30M even during a rebuild.
Come on, it's clearly not that simple. How many homegrown superstars are willing to stick it out more or less by themselves through a rebuild, and even if they are, does it make sense to pay more than even superstar market rate for them rather than trading them for pieces that could provide even more relative value (taking cost into account) to the next good team?
   55. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:36 PM (#5711217)
How many homegrown superstars are willing to stick it out more or less by themselves through a rebuild

Joey Votto and Ryan Braun in recent years come to mind immediately. And Freddie Freeman, they kept him while getting rid of every other veteran.
   56. rconn23 Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5711223)
"You know what makes a bad team more palatable and exciting to watch? A homegrown superstar player."


Orioles attendance is down 26 percent, one of the largest declines in baseball. Apparently watching the third worst pitching staff and the second worst offense is enough to obscure Machado's homegrown superstar appeal to fans.
   57. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5711224)
Come on, it's clearly not that simple. How many homegrown superstars are willing to stick it out more or less by themselves through a rebuild, and even if they are, does it make sense to pay more than even superstar market rate for them rather than trading them for pieces that could provide even more relative value (taking cost into account) to the next good team?

If you're paying the guy market rate, there's no surplus value to be acquired. The next 70 games of Machado don't have much surplus value either. The O's are not getting an A or A- prospect back, and probably not even a B+.

I would argue that on an expected value basis Manny Machado would contribute much more to the next good O's team in 3 or 4 years than a couple of B prospects and a lottery ticket or two. And he makes the O's much more watchable over the next 3 years.
   58. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5711229)
The only ones who benefit from this line of thought are the rebuilding owners, who get to pocket extra profits during the tear down, rather than having to maintain a reasonable payroll to try and avoid losing 100+ games.


Owners did not invent the teardown and "rebuilding" isn't just a cynical way of selling the owner's miserliness. The GMs are also driving this out of their own self-interest:

1. Makes them more likely to get hired in the first place ("my plan saves you $30M per year").
2. Puts them in a low-pressure situation in the near future.
3. It's classic CEO high risk / high reward behavior. The GM has little interest in respectable mediocrity, he wants to gamble (using someone else's money) on making himself famous, so the three unknown prospects are worth more to him than the one stable star.
4. Wants to put his own stamp on the team. A new boss is always itching to do something even if it's not justified.
5. Finally, many of them really do buy the success cycle / "next great team" stuff and think that this is authentically the best path.


One other thing that $30M superstar does is make your draft picks less valuable, for example. Unless you think that Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber etc weren't all that helpful.
   59. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:50 PM (#5711231)
Orioles attendance is down 26 percent, one of the largest declines in baseball. Apparently watching the third worst pitching staff and the second worst offense is enough to obscure Machado's homegrown superstar appeal to fans.


The Orioles are an extremely depressing team this year. They "tried to compete" by signing Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner (remember them? they're on the Orioles now and pitching horribly). They have Chris Davis having the worst season in baseball history and Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini hitting all right but producing the worst defense in the league. They are clearly desperate to trade some stars but know they should have done it last year. They have Dan "Lame Duq" Duquette in the media looking sad every day, while at the same time people know Brady Anderson has usurped much of Duquette's power but now doesn't want to take credit for it because the team is an abomination.

After bottoming out, having Machado surrounded by a rebuilding team would look a lot better.
   60. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5711234)
Update: Upon further inspection, Trey Mancini is not hitting all right. Nobody on the Orioles is hitting all right except Machado, Adam Jones, and Danny Valencia.
   61. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5711235)
Owners did not invent the teardown and "rebuilding" isn't just a cynical way of selling the owner's miserliness. The GMs are also driving this out of their own self-interest:

I didn't say they invented it. I said they're the only real beneficiaries.

One other thing that $30M superstar does is make your draft picks less valuable, for example. Unless you think that Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber etc weren't all that helpful.

But everyone keeps telling me that teams aren't tanking for draft picks?

Realistically, this should be addressed by a salary floor, so it wouldn't hurt anyone's draft picks. Any team that spends below $80M on MLB payroll should have their central fund revenue reduced dollar for dollar up to the shortfall amount. If you want to run a $30M payroll, you live on your local revenue.
   62. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5711239)
But everyone keeps telling me that teams aren't tanking for draft picks?


Really?
   63. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5711244)
One other thing that $30M superstar does is make your draft picks less valuable, for example. Unless you think that Carlos Correa and Kris Bryant and Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber etc weren't all that helpful.


Machado isn't exactly keeping the Orioles from earning a very high draft pick.
   64. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5711248)
He might in future years
   65. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5711254)
So they should get rid of their best and most popular player because he might potentially make them win 70 games one year rather than 63? Talk about kicking your fans in the head.
   66. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5711262)
I am pro tear-down - it's a smart move, the right move lots of the time, and I'm thrilled with what it delivered my Cubs.

However, I suppose I could see the argument that a player like Machado -- truly elite, still just 26, on track at least for 1st ballot HoF career - is one of the rarities you keep.

There are maybe three players in baseball for whom I'd say such an exception applies.

Of course, what people are forgetting is that Machado sort of has to want to stay, too... and lots of players who have options to sign almost anywhere are not too thrilled about the prospect of a couple years of 90-100 losses. Perhaps it's possible that giving Machado a blank check to fill out as he wishes would keep him, but there's also a dollar figure where that doesn't make sense either.
   67. Rally Posted: July 17, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5711263)
It's never the fans of the team in question that seem to be in favor of this "always trade your best player" strategy.

Half of the teams in the league are going to be bad teams, by definition. You know what makes a bad team more palatable and exciting to watch? A homegrown superstar player.


Orioles fans are still kicking themselves over the lost opportunity to trade Ripken for prospects 30 years ago. Orioles were pretty awful in 1988. Looking back at prospect lists they might have been able to send him to the Dodgers for Shawn Hillegas, Braulio Castillo, and Jose Offerman.
   68. PreservedFish Posted: July 17, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5711270)
So they should get rid of their best and most popular player because he might potentially make them win 70 games one year rather than 63? Talk about kicking your fans in the head.


Yes, that's the logic. I'm not saying that the Orioles should definitely do this, just that there's a plausible reason for it. Snapper is arguing that teardown rebuilding is just a front for owner cheapness, but I think that this particular vogue is GM-driven.
   69. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5711349)
Yes, that's the logic. I'm not saying that the Orioles should definitely do this, just that there's a plausible reason for it. Snapper is arguing that teardown rebuilding is just a front for owner cheapness, but I think that this particular vogue is GM-driven.

I'm not sure who's actually pushing it, but the extra profit sure makes it palatable to the owners.

In a world where teams couldn't rely on a huge amount of shared revenue, and guaranteed TV contracts, you'd never see these kind of total gut jobs.
   70. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5711364)
I am pro tear-down - it's a smart move, the right move lots of the time, and I'm thrilled with what it delivered my Cubs.

However, I suppose I could see the argument that a player like Machado -- truly elite, still just 26, on track at least for 1st ballot HoF career - is one of the rarities you keep.


This is right. The Cubs deciding to let Geovany Soto go and the Astros deciding to trade Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence don't compare to the Orioles losing Machado.
   71. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5711370)
Joey Votto and Ryan Braun in recent years come to mind immediately. And Freddie Freeman, they kept him while getting rid of every other veteran.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but those were all guys their teams signed to long-term deals when the teams were decent, right? So the players didn't have any say in sticking around through the subsequent teardown/rebuild. As Zonk reinforces in 66, the O's would likely have to pay Machado well above even his market rate to get him to stay.
   72. Rally Posted: July 17, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5711371)
In a world where teams couldn't rely on a huge amount of shared revenue, and guaranteed TV contracts, you'd never see these kind of total gut jobs.


I think Connie Mack would disagree.
   73. dlf Posted: July 17, 2018 at 04:40 PM (#5711420)
In a world where teams couldn't rely on a huge amount of shared revenue, and guaranteed TV contracts, you'd never see these kind of total gut jobs.


I think Connie Mack would disagree.


Calvin Griffith, Charlie Finley, and plenty of others too.
   74. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5711457)
I don't think the O's trading Machado (or Britton) now is the equivalent of a tear-down rebuild. Considering enough teams are doing it these days, it's probably worth a more critical evaluation (I'm not saying this post is that) of whether or not it's successful or a smart strategy, beyond just saving the owners some money.

-No question successful: Cubs, Astros
-Starting to look successful, but still probably too soon to tell: Braves, Phillies (? were they really a tear down or did they just get bad and do a standard rebuild?)
-Promising, but too soon to tell: White Sox. Maybe the Padres go in here, but the Myers extension and Hosmer contract make it hard to tell; they're probably more of the standard small market rebuild model.
-Failure: none?

What other teams should be included here? I don't think the Reds count, even though they dealt Frazier and Chapman before FA, but maybe you want to count them and they might go in the 3rd bucket. Pirates dealt McCutchen and Cole, but they resisted trading Cutch for a long time and I wouldn't say they really tried to bottom out (they just cheaped out when they were good). The Tigers might be early in that process, but they still haven't really stripped the team yet, they just got bad. Royals just got old and bad and clearly chose not to tear down. The A's have always be half tearing down, half not, so they don't fit this model. The Marlins are cheap and maybe stupid, but if you want to put them in a bucket right now they just started the tear down so way too early to judge success (though it would appear to be off to a bad start if you base it on the return for their trades this offseason).

There was a lot of criticism this offseason of teams not trying to win because they didn't sign FAs, so that muddies the water on this discussion. Also, this isn't meant to imply a tear-down is guaranteed success; you can still #### it up a lot of different ways.

tl; dr - hypothesis: there are enough demonstrated successes of the tear down model beyond saving the owners some money that objecting to it is more of a personal preference instead of right or wrong strategy.
   75. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:45 PM (#5711470)
-Starting to look successful, but still probably too soon to tell: Braves, Phillies (? were they really a tear down or did they just get bad and do a standard rebuild?)


The Phillies got bad and then did a teardown. They actively dealt away everyone except Ryan "Untradeable" Howard. Last year's payroll was minuscule.
   76. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:46 PM (#5711471)

I think Connie Mack would disagree.



Calvin Griffith, Charlie Finley, and plenty of others too.


Well that was because baseball wasn't very popular/profitable back then. Some teams literally couldn't afford their payroll, and had to sell players to stay solvent.

In today's MLB environment, money is raining from the trees.
   77. Tom Nawrocki Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:51 PM (#5711475)
-Starting to look successful, but still probably too soon to tell: Braves,


Machado is analogous to Freddie Freeman on the Braves. If you think the Orioles should trade Machado now, you think the Braves should have traded Freddie Freeman in about 2016.

   78. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: July 17, 2018 at 05:56 PM (#5711477)
Well that was because baseball wasn't very popular/profitable back then. Some teams literally couldn't afford their payroll, and had to sell players to stay solvent.

In today's MLB environment, money is raining from the trees.


What you were proposing was "In a world where teams couldn't rely on a huge amount of shared revenue, and guaranteed TV contracts".
   79. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:09 PM (#5711488)
Machado is analogous to Freddie Freeman on the Braves. If you think the Orioles should trade Machado now, you think the Braves should have traded Freddie Freeman in about 2016.

I'm pro-tear down (thanks, Theo) and I don't think the Braves should have traded Simmons.

I think the O's should trade Machado now, and should have thought about in the offseason, if and only if they were convinced he wasn't going to stick around. Freeman already had agreed to stay long term in 2016 (he signed his extension in 2014), so I don't think they should have traded him then.

I don't think they're analogous. I think there's a value, even in a tear down, of committing long term to All Star level players. So I think I understand the Braves deciding Freeman was worth building around Simmons wasn't, even though I would have disagreed.
   80. Where have you gone Brady Anderson? Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:25 PM (#5711497)
I think a lot of people are overlooking that Machado has a choice on where to go. The question is not trade Machado or keep him indefinitely. The questions is trade Machado or TRY to sign him in the offseason.

If you were Machado, would you want to sign with a terrible Orioles team, or would you want to go to a contender? Sure he might sign with the Orioles if they gave him the most money, but even then he might not. And if Machado was willing to give a hometown discount in order to stay with the Orioles, he probably would have signed an extension already. I think it is pretty clear that trading him is the right decision, because I doubt he will re-sign with the team.

Players who stay with one team their entire career are awesome, so it always makes me a bit sad when a star leaves their original team.
   81. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: July 17, 2018 at 06:34 PM (#5711499)
Well that was because baseball wasn't very popular/profitable back then. Some teams literally couldn't afford their payroll, and had to sell players to stay solvent.


That's not really true.

First of all, with very few exceptions - most team owners owned baseball teams as a rich man's hobby. Connie Mack is one exception - his A's break up in the deadball days was a matter of just not being able to afford the players, but I can't think of any other owners who had teams as much more than a toy.

And even Mack himself said - The best thing for a team financially is to be in the running and finish second. If you win, the players all expect raises.

Or, you can go with the Branch Rickey cliche - better to trade a guy a year too early than a year too late.

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