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Sunday, June 02, 2019

Phillies To Acquire Jay Bruce

The Phillies and Mariners were rumored to be very close yesterday on a deal that would send first baseman/outfielder Jay Bruce to Philadelphia, and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter link) is reporting that the trade has been completed.  Bruce could potentially join his new club as early as today — the Phillies are in Los Angeles completing a series with the Dodgers, while the Mariners are at home this weekend against the Angels.

The exact return headed back to Seattle isn’t yet known, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that the Mariners would receive a minor leaguer and some money back from Philadelphia to cover the roughly $21.6MM owed on Bruce’s contract through the end of the 2020 season.  As per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Phillies will take on “the bulk” of Bruce’s remaining salary, so it’s safe to assume that the M’s will only be getting a minor prospect in return for getting so much cash off their books.

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 02, 2019 at 08:20 PM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: jay bruce

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: June 02, 2019 at 09:05 PM (#5847664)
I still don't get it ... is the plan an OF of Harper, McCutchen, Bruce? That sounds like rather a lot of balls dropping. They might be better off with Mallex Smith or Billy Hamilton or even Keon Broxton (or just seeing if Kingery can learn on the job). Bruce is a HR slump away from being useless offensively and is under contract for next year too so it will be interesting to see what the "bulk" amounts to. The Phils should definitely be going for it so I understand they want to address (in baseball terms) Herrera's absence (and suckitude) ASAP but this doesn't look like a great way to do it.
   2. Walt Davis Posted: June 02, 2019 at 09:27 PM (#5847676)
This update from the thread just below this:

the Mariners will acquire minor league infielder Jake Scheiner from Philadelphia, while the Phillies will receive about $18MM from Seattle to cover the majority of Bruce’s remaining salary.

2/3 of this season and all of next should be about $24 M owed Bruce so Ms get $6 M of relief. Further in that thread, Scheiner was ranked as the Phils' 45th best prospect pre-season which is about as far from the majors as you can get while still being known by somebody other than your own mother. And given this year he's hitting 256/326/353 at A+, his stock has probably fallen. (Yes, it's one of those horrible Fla leagues where nobody hits but those numbers are around team/league average.)

EDIT: $6 M for >1.5 seasons of Bruce as a bench corner OF/1B/DH is reasonable enough.
   3. Davo Posted: June 02, 2019 at 09:42 PM (#5847678)
This site listed Scheiner as Philly’s 45th best prospect:

Scheiner was one of the best hitters in the South Atlantic League, especially in the second half. He also is a corner bat who was a 22 year old 4th round pick, so he should have performed well at this level. He will need to show success against higher level competition before there is any sort of certainty about his MLB role.

...Scheiner should open with the (Hi-A) Clearwater Threshers at a position to be determined. He has shown to be comfortable moving between third, first, and left field and it is not unreasonable that he eventually sees time in right field. If he hits in Florida like he did in the second half of 2018, he could be in (AA) Reading before midseason.
ETA: 2021
   4. PreservedFish Posted: June 02, 2019 at 09:48 PM (#5847683)
What a time to live in, where team prospect rankings go 45 deep!
   5. bookbook Posted: June 02, 2019 at 09:58 PM (#5847691)
Evidently, the Phillies are only on the hook for $3.5 million, which is the equivalent of less than .5 WAR in free agency. If his BABIP doesn’t normalize, There’s a glut of similarly talented 4th outfielders, but Bruce’s positive interactions/ mentoring with young players make this a bargain for Philly.

Seattle saves a few bucks and gets to see whether Bishop and Long are worth further investment of time.
   6. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: June 02, 2019 at 10:07 PM (#5847697)
45th in a weak Phils farm system is pretty far down there.

With their AAAA outfielders Quinn and Cozens hurt (Quinn is always hurt), they have no ML semi ready outfielders left. They will let Kingery and Cutch fake CF for a while. They are quite willing to punt defense, as we saw last year.
   7. Steve Balboni's Personal Trainer Posted: June 02, 2019 at 10:15 PM (#5847699)
According to BB-Ref.com, the most similar player in history to Jay Bruce through age 30 was....Reggie Jackson.
Then, through age 31, it was Tom Brunansky.
That's a little more like it.
   8. Davo Posted: June 02, 2019 at 11:22 PM (#5847728)
I was looking at the numbers the other day and, good God, Jay Bruce is having about as bad an offensive season you can possibly have when you’re slugging .533.

I mean it looks like a typo. .212/.283/.533?!?!?
   9. bookbook Posted: June 03, 2019 at 03:03 AM (#5847737)
It’s a Dave Kingman season.
   10. Walt Davis Posted: June 03, 2019 at 03:53 AM (#5847738)
which is the equivalent of less than .5 WAR in free agency.

Not anymore ... not for the 1 WAR type players. Still, $3.5 is even less than $6 so, if accurate, this is perfectly fine by Philly.

Jose Iglesias got a minor-league invite (and $2.5 M); Adam Jones got $3 M; Maybin got a minor-league deal (no idea); Leonys Martin got $3 (not an FA apparently); Melky just over $1; Parra $1.75; CarGo got a minor-league deal; the other CarGo $2. Over the previous 4 seasons, by WAR, all of those guys had been as good or better than Bruce except Parra. (By WAR, I have been better than Parra over the last 4 years and would gladly take a guaranteed min salary ... no service time games!)
   11. bookbook Posted: June 03, 2019 at 06:50 AM (#5847739)
Ageism explains why Parra got your roster spot, to be sure. But the team appreciates your understanding.

(I appreciate your point that the market is not strong for these guys. The “white” Non-Hispanic versions are probably getting paid s bit better—unconscious racism rears its head at the margins. But still Philadelphia had greater leverage than Seattle, here.)
   12. Rennie's Tenet Posted: June 03, 2019 at 08:18 AM (#5847742)
Jay Buhner is on Jay Bruce's most-similar hitters list. They might have made good page mates back in the days of paper encyclopedias.
   13. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: June 03, 2019 at 08:24 AM (#5847743)
phillies' GM klentak worked for mariners' GM dipoto when they were in LA.

considering:
jay bruce
jean segura
carlos santana


it does not seem unfair to question whether dipoto now works for klentak.
   14. PreservedFish Posted: June 03, 2019 at 08:24 AM (#5847744)
Remember when Bruce was literally the top prospect in the game? Seems strange that such a non-toolsy guy would get that ranking.
   15. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: June 03, 2019 at 08:34 AM (#5847745)
and yes, i did just now only look up what carlos santana is doing this year.


ugh. it's honestly kind of impressive that the phillies are so consistently unable to get players to play well while they're here.
   16. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: June 03, 2019 at 08:52 AM (#5847749)
Remember when Bruce was literally the top prospect in the game? Seems strange that such a non-toolsy guy would get that ranking.




.291/.355/.516 as a 19-year old in the Midwest League, then
.319/.375/.587 as a 20-year old through A+, AA, AAA, then
.364/.393/.630 in 49 games in AAA as a 21 year old and then called up for good. It took MLB level pitchers about 2 weeks to figure out he had a hole in his swing and start exploiting it. And, he was never able to fix that.
   17. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 03, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5847750)
Bruce was a pretty good athlete coming up. Not great, but fairly good speed and was able to cover CF in a pinch. Plus he had a cannon arm.
   18. Tom Nawrocki Posted: June 03, 2019 at 10:01 AM (#5847759)
I suppose this officially signals the end of Odubel Herrera in Philadelphia.
   19. bfan Posted: June 03, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5847763)
Jay Bruce takes a lot more grief than I think he deserves. He sits today with a lifetime OPS+ of 109. Ichiro(!), also a corner outfielder, rings in at 107. Would we like Jay Bruce more if his career slash line was .311/.355/.402? Bruce hits HRs and walks a decent amount, both of which contribute to offense, by all recent studies.
   20. PreservedFish Posted: June 03, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5847768)
I mean, he was an average corner outfielder, who had some good years and some bad ones. He earned nearly $100 million. He's OK.
   21. Sweatpants Posted: June 03, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5847776)
With Harper, McCutchen, Arrieta, and now Bruce, the Phillies have a pretty good shot at the 2015 pennant.* They're in first, though. That's pretty good, as far as chasing the past rosters go. Maybe the 2007 Yankees, with none of Jason Giambi, Bob Abreu, Mike Mussina, Roger Clemens, and Johnny Damon playing like a star, are the best success story for this kind of team.

*Bruce having poor years in 2014 and 2015 kind of ruins this, but he was good in 2013 and bounced back a bit in 2016-17.
   22. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: June 03, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5847782)
Would we like Jay Bruce more if his career slash line was .311/.355/.402?
We would like Bruce more if he could have been that kind of hitter, had he wanted to.
   23. Ziggy is done with Dominican discotheques Posted: June 03, 2019 at 11:53 AM (#5847792)
Ichiro(!), also a corner outfielder, rings in at 107.


Whales and gazelle are similar in that they're both mammals.
   24. Adam Starblind Posted: June 03, 2019 at 12:30 PM (#5847801)
Ichiro(!), also a corner outfielder, rings in at 107.


Whales and gazelle are similar in that they're both mammals.


Kind of the point.
   25. SoSH U at work Posted: June 03, 2019 at 12:34 PM (#5847804)
Kind of the point.


That was definitely not bfan's point.
   26. Fernigal McGunnigle Posted: June 03, 2019 at 12:39 PM (#5847806)
I was looking at the numbers the other day and, good God, Jay Bruce is having about as bad an offensive season you can possibly have when you’re slugging .533.
Vinnie Castilla is not impressed. There have been 17 seasons with a .520+ SLG and an OPS+ lower than Bruce's 116:

- 9 were in Colorado between 1994 and 2004 (4 by Castilla, 3 by Dante Bichette)
- 4 were non-Colorado seasons between 1994 and 1999
- 3 were in the NL in 1930, when the league hit 303/360/448
- 1 was for the 1894 Boston Beaneaters, who hit 331/401/484 in a league that hit 309/379/435 (346/401/520 got Bobby Lowe a 111 OPS+)

If Bruce can keep it up, he'd be the first person to ever slug .500 with an average under .230 and an OBP under .300 in 100 or more PAs.
   27. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: June 03, 2019 at 01:01 PM (#5847817)
ugh. it's honestly kind of impressive that the phillies are so consistently unable to get players to play well while they're here.


Speaking as a Mets fan, I can only say "Cry me a effin' river."
   28. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: June 03, 2019 at 01:15 PM (#5847832)
Speaking as a Mets fan, I can only say "Cry me a effin' river."

it's not my fault you support a team that's owned by unindicted co-conspirators.
   29. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: June 03, 2019 at 02:31 PM (#5847872)
Jay Bruce takes a lot more grief than I think he deserves. He sits today with a lifetime OPS+ of 109. Ichiro(!), also a corner outfielder, rings in at 107. Would we like Jay Bruce more if his career slash line was .311/.355/.402?


Jay Bruce 19.5 bWAR
Ichiro 59.4 bWAR

   30. Howie Menckel Posted: June 03, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5847878)
yeah, I am one who is sacrilegious enough to call Ichiro overrated, but Jay Bruce isn't even revolving around the same planet as him once baserunning and defense are factored in.
   31. Hysterical & Useless Posted: June 03, 2019 at 02:54 PM (#5847882)
I am one who is sacrilegious enough to call Ichiro overrated


You're a poor second to Ray in that department, Howie.
   32. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: June 03, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5847889)
There was a guy in our fantasy league who bid on and acquired Bruce like 4 years in a row and after Bruce sucked his age 27 season this guy spent the next fantasy draft imitating the Cerrano character from Major League only instead of ######## at Jobu (sp?) he said Jay Bruce finishing with #### You Jay Bruce! It was funny.
   33. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: June 03, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5847893)
Alas, Jay Bruce never became the player we in Cincinnati all hoped he would. However, we will always remember him for this:

Jay Bruce homers to clinch 2010 NL Central
   34. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: June 03, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5847896)
Speaking as a Mets fan, I can only say "Cry me a effin' river."

it's not my fault you support a team that's owned by unindicted co-conspirators.


Hey, don't bring the President into this...
   35. bfan Posted: June 03, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5847905)
yeah, I am one who is sacrilegious enough to call Ichiro overrated, but Jay Bruce isn't even revolving around the same planet as him once baserunning and defense are factored


Isn't base-running factored into OPS+? Certainly SB (and caught stealing) is.














31. Hysterical














31.
   36. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: June 03, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5847911)
Isn't base-running factored into OPS+? Certainly SB (and caught stealing) is.


It is part of WAR, but not OPS+ (though, maybe you meant to type WAR instead of OPS+).
   37. SoSH U at work Posted: June 03, 2019 at 05:26 PM (#5847933)
You're a poor second to Ray in that department, Howie.


No, he's a poor third. Because nobody, including Ray, holds a candle to bfan in this competition.

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