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Tuesday, January 09, 2018

Phillies Trade Proposal For Christian Yelich « CBS Philly

This strikes me as a little short on the Phillies side.

MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince proposed a trade that might work for both the Phillies and the Marlins: Nick Williams, Mickey Moniak, and Jorge Alfaro for Yelich.

Jim Furtado Posted: January 09, 2018 at 10:17 AM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: marlins, phillies

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: January 09, 2018 at 05:08 PM (#5603642)
On the surface it seems fair enough (it's essentially impossible to put together a truly fair trade for a young star on a team-friendly contract but I wouldn't be the GM trying to trade Yelich).

Nick Williams: top-50ish prospect who just put up a 113 OPS+ at 23.

Moniak: already top 20 on some lists last year at 19 but had a lousy season. Still #29 at mlb.com.

Alfaro has been a #50ish prospect for a few years now, had a nice cup of coffee (129 OPS+).

But in detail it starts to fall apart. Apparently Williams' defense is terrible -- bad enough to make him replacement level by bWAR and statcast has him among the 10 worst (but only about half as many runs). Alfaro only helps the Marlins if they are trading Realmuto (or trading Bour and moving one of the other two to 1B).

Still, it's the equivalent of 3 prospects ranked roughly 20 to 50 but no tippy-top prospect. That's a pretty nice return but it probably requires a top-10 prospect ... but no obvious fits there.
   2. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: January 09, 2018 at 06:04 PM (#5603693)
pass.

i'd do something built around odubel herrera, though

herrera and yelich are basically the same player; same age, same position, same skillset. yelich is slightly better and much more consistent, but his contract is twice as expensive, with one fewer year of team control.

cutting salary works out for the marlins, plus they can trade herrera at a later date.
getting better works out for the phillies, and they keep prospects on hand for a later trade.
   3. #6bid turns frustration into motivation and muscle Posted: January 09, 2018 at 08:28 PM (#5603754)
This Marlins fire sale is simply out of control, I cannot believe they traded Christian Yelich for a proposal.
   4. SoSH U at work Posted: January 09, 2018 at 08:58 PM (#5603770)
This Marlins fire sale is simply out of control, I cannot believe they traded Christian Yelich for a proposal.


To be fair, It was one of those really good Jumbotron ones, where the horrified woman can't believe her dumbass boyfriend thought she'd consider it romantic to get asked to marry in front of 40,000 people and the creepy furry standing beside him.
   5. stevegamer Posted: January 09, 2018 at 09:40 PM (#5603792)
The proposed deal for Yelich is too much for the Phillies to pay.

While I agree with Stiggles that Yelich might be a small upgrade on Herrera offensively, I think he's worse defensively. If you wanted to do Stiggles' challenge trade, I'd ask them to give me something else, not the other way around. Yelich is more expensive, and under team control for less time; the Phillies have an extra option year on Herrera. Therefore, the Marlins should have to pay me in some sort of way to give them a cheaper version of the same type of player, who is more likely to be able to stick in CF longer.

So if you're not swapping Herrera out, we're then going to compare Yelich's offense to a corner outfielder, and I don't mean Jason Heyward's. I'd rather have the 3 prospects - all of whom seem like they could be as good offensively as Yelich. Yes, there's achance none are, but there's a chance more than one is, since we already have some MLB play from 2 of them.

   6. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: January 09, 2018 at 10:31 PM (#5603810)
if you're not swapping Herrera out, we're then going to compare Yelich's offense to a corner outfielder
yup. and not only that, but with yelich, herrera and hoskins pencilled into the OF, you've put a speed bump in front of williams, altherr, moniak, hasely and any OF prospect who starts to make some noise.
While I agree with Stiggles that Yelich might be a small upgrade on Herrera offensively, I think he's worse defensively. If you wanted to do Stiggles' challenge trade, I'd ask them to give me something else, not the other way around. Yelich is more expensive, and under team control for less time; the Phillies have an extra option year on Herrera. Therefore, the Marlins should have to pay me in some sort of way to give them a cheaper version of the same type of player, who is more likely to be able to stick in CF longer.
yelich is more expensive, but his contract is still a bargain. and one 15MM option 6 years from now is mostly meaningless.

the difference in their salaries is also mostly meaningless, at least from the phillies point of view.

i didn't realize this before, but yelich's defensive stats show a huge split between his defense in LF, where he's well above average, and CF, where he's slightly below average.


that throws some cold water on the idea, but it might still be workable.

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