Oops, Hamels' is a super-two as well this year. Still, its a below market contract.

IIRC, upper-tier SP have been giving up their arb years for about $15-18m. Hamels is one of the better young pitchers, but the market is depressed and he's only a super-2, so that seems like a fair deal.

Do the Phillies still have him under control for 2012? A show of hands?

Hamels doesn't lose any of his free agent years to team control, so good for him.

Win-win.

Best Regards

John

Yeah, they should have him controlled yet for 2012 as well.

I would not be surprised if the Phillies come back to Hammels after all the arbitration hearings and offer him a little bit more up front in order to control 2012 and maybe 2013.

I don't see how this is a win for the Phillies. CM Wang was coming off two 19 win seasons with a 3.70era in the AL East and he lost his arbitration case for 4.6m, so he made 4m last year. That means realistically Cole would be in the 4.5m range, at most. The increases in both 2010 and 2011 seem standard to me, assuming he remains solid. To me it seems the Phillies are risking 20m to save maybe 2m. There really is no point to this deal, other than I guess to restore some good faith with Hamels that you lost last year by pissing him off with a paycheck of only $500,000. Maybe then after this year or next he lets you buy out that last arb year along with some FA years for a reasonable price.

I'm inclined to agree with #8. Sure, the Phillies save some money but how much? I'm not convinced it's such a substantial amount, especially since they didn't buy out any free agent years or even have an option (that I know of). If he went year-to-year, how much would he have gotten, total? 30MM? There is value in the cost certaincy, sure, but I predict Cole Hamels will be winning Cole Hamelses elsewhere in 2012.

A decent deal for the Phillies, sure, but a better one for Cole. He's no further from being a free agent than he was yesterday.

Fair.

Arbitration salaries are by definition, "below market." The more relevant question, that #8 and #9 are talking about, is whether the Phillies saved money relative to what Hamels would have made in arbitration. Howard's figure is irrelevant - you don't compare hitters to pitchers in this process.

92-93, one big factor in Hamels' favor vs Wang is the WS win and hardware. Those awards do count for a lot in the arb room. Wang and Dontrelle were the two most direct comparables for him.

Willis made $4.35 million coming off a 22-win season and 2nd place in the Cy voting, with career totals of 46 wins, 451 K in 594 IP, and a 3.27 ERA.

Hamels went 14-10, received no Cy votes but did win two postseason awards and a WS ring (Dontrelle had one too), and has career totals of 38 wins and 518 K in 543 IP with a 3.43 ERA.

If I'm Hamels' agent, I file a number over Willis' win, but probably expect to settle under it. The 8 wins and lower ERA for Willis are hard to overcome in this silly process.

Cost certainty is the key here. I've ripped Amaro in other threads, and (IMHO) rightfully so. But he's dealing with a very difficult situation having so many players eligible for arbitration - he has to allocate budget based on worst-case scenarios in the hearings. At least now he'll know what Hamels gets this year and the next two, which helps him budget accordingly.

While Wang might be the closest comp, he was clearly inferior a year ago to Hamels going into arbitration this year:

ERA+ - Wang 105. 124, 121; Hamels 115, 136, 145
K/9 - Wang 3.64, 3.14, 4.70; Hamels 9.84, 8.69, 7.76
WHIP - Wang 1.246, 1.307, 1.294; Hamels 1.247, 1.124, 1.082

Bump up the figures by a couple million each year for the difference between Wang and Hamels, and the deal starts to look much more sensible. It's not a steal for the Phils, but it's a fair bargain for both sides. It gives Amaro cost certainty on one of his biggest and potentially most volatile arbitration cases for this and the next two offseasons, which helps in signing free agents or negotiating other extensions.

Keith, how about prospective comps for years 2 and 3? If we use Zambrano, and we assume the 4.35m is around what Hamels would have made this year anyway, the Phillies are guaranteeing 16.15m for the years in which Zambrano made 18.9m, settling before arbitration in both instances. Are the savings worth it?

I wrote an article on the arbitration process back in 2003 for BTF. Here it is: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/eugene_freedman_2003_12_14_0/

ColonelTom: Those aren't the stats commonly used in arbitration. Using ERA+ is almost delusional. The process has improved somewhat, but stats like wins, saves, RBIs, etc. still rule the day.

92-93: I'm going to answer with a question because I should be busy writing something else - what would Hamels have to do in 2009 to beat Zambrano's second-time-eligible figure in arb? Wins, starts, innings, strikeouts, ERA, etc.

Also, here's some perspective on the process from some arbitrators who are involved- what they consider.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/eugene_freedman_2002_11_27_0/

I predict Cole Hamels will be winning Cole Hamelses elsewhere in 2012

He's still under Phillies' control for 2012, so that seems unlikely.

He's still under Phillies' control for 2012, so that seems unlikely.

I stand corrected, then, after not fully realizing the implications of Super-Two status. In that case, I like this deal considerably less now if it means he still has one more year of arbitration left.

Smart move for Hamels. This is contract that guarantees him lifetime security, and he doesn't have to give up a chance at big a$$ free agent money as soon as he can.

This is contract that guarantees him lifetime security

Or will finance a medium-sized coke habit until his mid-thirties.

It's still not enough to aquire a high-maintenance trophy wife, though.

It's still not enough to aquire a high-maintenance trophy wife, though.

Cole already has a trophy wife. Not sure about her maintenance factor.
Whatever that factor is, I'm guessing she's worth it.

eh, take it from me, she's a dead fish in bed.

So now, where were we?

Man, the Yanks went to arb with Wang over a measly $600 k.

The Phils do probably save a bit on the raises but I have to agree this doesn't look like a huge bargain for them. But given he's still under their control for 2012, I think it's probably wise NOT to buy out any FA years as that would require at least a 5-year contract. Plenty of time to extend him if he's still healthy and effective 3 years from now.

Attractive, I'd definitely #### her, but not my style.