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1. ColonelTom Posted: April 15, 2006 at 02:07 PM (#1964998)He inhabits this weird space where it seems entirely obvious both that everything he says is a big put-on, and that he's the dumbest man on earth.
That's just Johnny being Johnny, man.
As for Bernie, he should retire now anyway.
If the Yankees got Hunter (a plus defender), to play CF and moved Johnny (an average-to-plus defender) to RF, moving Sheff to DH, I think their OF defense, which was historically horrible the last few years, becomes an actual strength. Now some of this strength is given back by the anchoring of Giambi to 1B.
Offensively, you are essentially replacing Bernie Williams with Torii Hunter. Which may be a push, or Hunter may be better.
So if the Yankees don't have to pay for Hunter in terms of on-field talent, I think this possible move upgrades their offense slightly, and their defense significantly. The only real downside is replacing Sheffield's arm with Damon's.
But I agree with kevin - I don't think it'll happen. I just have a rosier view of the possibilites.
I agree somewhat. Range is more important, but I don't know if 20 times more important. I think arm strength is important only because it prevents runners from trying to go an extra base when in all probability they would've made it anyways. IOW, the fear factor of the arm is important.
I have no numbers to back me up on this, but can you imagine (if Damon goes to RF) how many more doubles the Yankees would give up on singles to right? Can you imagine how many more runners go 1st to 3rd and 2nd to home on ANYTHING hit to right? Sac flies? Runners tagging up from 1st? (if coaches would figure out that any decently deep fly ball to CF now is an auto tagup)
I would think that those extra bases would add up to about the same number of extra balls Damon would get to that Sheff does not...
Chad, have you seen the Yankees recently? Bernie Williams is second on the depth chart to Sheffield in RF - he played there yesterday, I believe. I believe that Bernie's arm is significantly worse than Damon's. It's apparent to me that the Yankees FO is willing to punt RF arm strength at a moment's notice; given this, perhaps it would make sense to set up the alignment outlined above.
But again, I don't think that this situation would actually happen.
I think it's more Joe then the Front Office. He's clearly lost his mind is going to use Bernie whenever he can, no matter how foolish he makes Bernie look in the process. I doubt Cashman had Bernie in right in mind when signed him this off season.
Well, I don't have a significant problem with this. I think a Damon-Hunter-Matsui OF would be better then a Matsui-Hunter-Damon OF, particularly at the Stadium.
But the A-Rod experience has taught me that optimal defensive alignments are less important than player acquisition.
Miguel Cairo, starting first baseman. What do you think?
Scouts think Matsui is a good LF, so I'm fairly certain Torre feels the same way. I think he just doesn't want to keep moving him around out of respect to him.
I'm at least glad that Damon is willing to move at some point, because with the way his defense has regressed I don't want him in CF in years 3 and 4 of his deal. Hunter's just not the guy I would want replacing him.
Does anyone have an explanation for how his swing generated that upperdeck HR the other day? I don't get it. He has one of the worst swings in the game. I can see him maybe poking a few down the line, but I never expected that kind of a HR from him.
No.
"He struck out Ichiro! with a splitter he missed by 2 feet and bailed out on."
I did not know that, but I hear he is embracing the closer role.
"Can't wait for the first RS/yankee series."
When is that?
WTF does this have to do with Johnny Damon or Torii Hunter?
......Standard disclaimers as to the accuracy of the velocity/time/distance calculations ( I don't know if they assume drag and such, I'd think not)
And he only has one hand on the bat.
"In fact, it's more like chopping wood."
With a hatchet.
All I can think is that it isn't generally regarded as worth it. A well-hit ball requires a runner to go halfway between. A player can only really tag on a lazy fly ball that he immediately forecasts as about to be caught. If it drops in, his chances of scoring from first base drop if he doesn't get a good secondary lead.
I have dealt with this in the most childish way I know how (Check Sox Therapy).
TVe.. I think you're right about the OF as you stated is better, but I just don't see it as significantly better than now. BTW, as to Bernie playing RF..well, I guess you have to play him somewhere. What do you think their arms rate in the 20-80 scale? I say Bernie is a 25 and Damon is a 30..maybe
I completely understand. Six innings is plenty of sample size to get excited.
He has looked good, but I think he is talented enough to be a decent to good starter. I wonder if making him a closer now is going to hurt that in the long run.
Why don't people tag up from first vs the Yanks..I just don't know.
It could also be that the arms are not as functionally bad as they appear to be visually. I'm sure if teams felt it was that clear of an advantage we'd be seeing more of it.
That's the rationale that has been used by some to support the idea that Matsui is able to compensate for a less than strong throwing arm. It may have been true in his first season in New York, but it isn't now.
My concern wouldn't necessarily be reflected in early K/BB totals. If his pitches aren't all that close to the zone but hitters are swinging at them, it tells me that his stuff (which I wouldn't question) is getting people out; not his control. That if the scouting report says to lay off his pitches, he won't fool people forever.
Stuff can carry a closer through a great season or two, but eventually his stuff deserts him (be it for a week, a month, or forever). I think the elite closers are effective even when they aren't electric.
My guess is that he probably does a ton of trunk exercises and uses his everything but his hands to generate bat speed. I don't even know if that can work, maybe he's got flubber in his bat.
Do you?
True. IT does take a good read on the runner/1st base coach. I thought one of the things that Roberto Alomar did REALLY well was this. It seems only the really smart/savvy players try it.
CBW, what about how long it takes the person to make the throw? Is that something that is tracked? A lot of fielders make up for less than stellar arm strength with a quick release, although I have no idea if that is something Damon does.
True. And actually Damon does seem to have a decently quick release.
If you need a visual as to how Johnny throws.....
1) find an uncoordinated 5 year-old kid.
2) give him a baseball and set him up to throw
3) stand in front of him about 30 feet away
4) give him instructions to throw the ball as hard as he can at you as soon as you yell "GO"
5) scream "GO" at the top of your lungs
6) You have Johnny Damon (head flies out of the way, limbs going every direction, shoulder flies out, spins out of control...etc)
7) have a video camera ready
I like to use that when trying to figure out the control/stuff ratio.
A control pitcher gets more backwards k's on his scorecard because hitters believe they know that a ball will act a certain way and it goes somewhere else - in the strike zone.
Absolutely outstanding. You know more about swinging a bat quickly than most hitting coaches. A dirty little secret about bat speed is that the hands don't add much to bat speed. They merely act as a a vehicle to transfer the momentum/velocity your trunk has created.
If I may reference again....
role of the hands/arms
the important part of the swing
I actually agree with that, but my fear that he will not be used well throughout the season has really clouded my thinking in terms of Bernie. If he were playing sometimes, like 3-4 days a week, at DH and maybe left, I could see him being useful. But he's becoming an everyday player, which he really isn't capable of (no power right now and he's not going to hit .300 for the season) and meanwhile, no one is ever going to learn if Phillips is useful or not because Torre refuses to give him ABs, even against the ####### Royals. This is the kind of thing that will cost the Yanks wins down the line, if not right now.
I have no idea about Papelbon's future role here. But my statement is pretty universal.
To my knowledge, there has only been one full-time closer to move into the rotation and have any success, and Derek Lowe isn't my idea of a great SP.
We're not far from complete agreement. I think that if we could somehow be guaranteed that Bernie gets the Ruben Sierra role from a few years ago (or the Dion James role from further back), many of us (certainly me) would be enthusiastic and supportive.
I had a great coach in high school and I was one of those guys who tried to speed up my swing with hands and arms, swinging as hard as I could, so I got more then a few lessons about swinging.
Cuz Joe Torre is a basehead.
"Which way did he go, Scoob?"
"Rat Ray".
Seems pretty obvious, but how many hitting coaches teach to bring the knob of the bat to the ball...yikes, so much for bat speed.
I'm sorry, but how is .294/.333/.324 alive? That looks like a Womack line.
I didn't realize it was that bad, before last night his OBP was around .360.
i.e. put the guy with the strongest arm in the pull field for the hitter, and switch him with his counterpart on the other side of the diamond if someone who batted the other way got up?
or is that against the rules?
because it would solve the arm problem.
Give him a month. With his track record, I'd be fairly surprised if his OBP was under .350 after 100 ABs or so.
At this point in the season, I dispense with this-year-only numbers as an evaluation tool of anything other than hotness at the moment.
1) find an uncoordinated 5 year-old kid.
2) give him a baseball and set him up to throw
3) stand in front of him about 30 feet away
4) give him instructions to throw the ball as hard as he can at you as soon as you yell "GO"
5) scream "GO" at the top of your lungs
6) You have Johnny Damon (head flies out of the way, limbs going every direction, shoulder flies out, spins out of control...etc)
7) have a video camera ready
You forgot two steps.
-Tie the 5 year old's elbow to the side of his chest so that he cannot extend his arm.
-Have the 5 year old make a little hop at the end of the throw.
You've lost your mind, unless you think that getting Hunter will cost you Hughes. Melky's OPS+ would be what, 75? That's an enormous gap.
I believe that for an outfielder, range is about twenty times more important than arm strength.
UZR's arm runs could get pretty high for guys like Damon. IIRC, Pierre's was -5 runs a season in CF. It's conceivable that Damon's would be that, or higher, in RF. I think the better solution would be to have Hunter playing RF - both lose a bunch of value when not playnig CF though.
I don't remember Tango's numbers but I think a man on third vs a man on second with the same number of outs must be worth something like a 1/3 to 1/2 a run.
Via The Book:
For 0 outs: .293 runs
For 1 out: .258
For 2 outs: .043 runs
So, it's not quite as high as you had expected, but that certainly adds up.
Give him a month. With his track record, I'd be fairly surprised if his OBP was under .350 after 100 ABs or so.
At this point in the season, I dispense with this-year-only numbers as an evaluation tool of anything other than hotness at the moment.
You're aware he hit .249/.321/.367 last year, and his ZIPS this year is .241/.332/.362. He sucks.
That's legal. At least it was in the 80's. In this game, the Mets were forced to use Rusty Staub in the field and flip flopped him and Danny Heep in the corners; depending on the batters handedness.
Also, come to think of it, it's been done more recently. The Red Sox were forced to use Damon Buford as an infielder in this game and they flipflopped Damon Buford and John Valentin between second and third. I'm pretty sure that the Yanks once had to use Don Mattingly at third base for a game and switched him to shortstop when there was a bunt possibility, but retrosheet doesn't show that.
I'm sure that there are other examples, I'm just a provincial guy who knows about the northeastern teams.
Have I lost my mind because I'm not myopically focused on an overpriced quick fix? Melky is hitting .385 in AAA, and has started to develop plate discipline. I want to assemble a team that is good this year and for years to come.
Hunter makes $10.75 million this year, and has an option for $12 million next season.
Acquiring Hunter would divert resources from what should be the Yankees' primary goal: finding a way to supplement the rotation, which can be extremely expensive since top starters command big bucks.
If the Yankees' payroll was the bottomless pit that you evidently think it is, they would have signed Beltran last year, and this discussion would be moot.
Consequently, if the issue is whether or not one of us has lost their mind, it's likely the person that doesn't factor in those issues into their posts, which would be...um, you.
Hunter's projected offense (.270 EQA, according to BP2006) over Bernie William's offense (.253 EQA) is 15-20 runs. Hunter's defense over Sheffield's is likely another 20. That's 3.5-4 wins - if you don't have to give up a good prospect, they should be all over that. He's a little overpriced, but they're raking in the dough and need to improve their team. That could easily be the difference between making the postseason and not making the postseason.
And Melky Cabrera's OBP was terrible in AA and AAA last year. His numbers so far in AAA are very promising, but they were promising for a week in AAA last year before he got calle dup.
If the Yankees' payroll was the bottomless pit that you evidently think it is, they would have signed Beltran last year, and this discussion would be moot.
Having a one year commitment with Hunter is hardly the same thing as a 7 year commitment.
Improving defense will make the pitching look better, and as you say improving in the rotation can be very expensive. Just improve where ever you have holes, and the wins will add up.
I would rather miss the postseason than burn top prospects on Hunter.
As for Melky, his development is looking a lot like Cano's of a year ago. He seems to have taken a quantum leap, which started in the Domincan Winter League.
Given the way the Yankees are rebuilding their farm system, they can win now, and they can win in the future. I don't want to derail that plan for any one player, especially a good, but not great, player like Hunter.
In a year, the Yankees could have the kind of surplus talent in the organization that would permit that type of trade.
At this point, Tabata (totally untouchable), Jackson, Henry, Gardner, Nunez, Clippard, Garcia shouldn't be moved.
But accepting your point for the sake of argument: If the Yankees did trade prospects for Hunter, what would they do to fill a hole in the rotation if one occurred before the trading deadline, if not sooner?
If the Yankees are intent on rebuilding their farm, they have the cash to get guys like Henry and Jackson whenever they want, offering big bucks to guys who drop for signability reasons. Losing a couple of their half dozen to dozen raw players who need a bunch more seasoning won't seriously setback their farm.
This is awful, also, thanks for volunteering to play RF you jackass. If Cashman lurks here, I would like to formally throw my hat into the RF ring for '07.
Damon and I have the same appoximate value in RF.
His value is only going to drop as he gets older and has trouble duplicating the magical 50 ABs in Arizona.
I don't deal Hughes, Tabata, Hughes, Clippard or DeSalvo. Or Hughes, especially Hughes.
I don't think it would be prudent to deal Jackson. Going forward, if they are going to draft athletes in the 6th, 7th, 8th rounds and take them away from Football and BAseball, they are doing so for 2 reasons, It would not help convince them to sign if just year before, they convinced a kid to take a deal and then shipped him to Rockies.
IF the Devil Rays drafted Jackson and offered him the same 500k to sign, Austin Jackson is in class at GEorgia Tech right now. PArt of the allure is the pinstripes
It's funny you mention them actually. Because they lured Carl Crawford away from a basketball scholarship at UCLA and a football scholarship at Nebraska with a higher than slot bonus. Maybe it's the allure of the carving station. Or maybe someone's drinking the Kool Aid a little too much.
I could see Clippard, though I'm not sure how useful an extreme flyball pitcher would be with the Yankee outfield. DeSalvo looks like a random guy the yanks should move -- he'll never get a chance with the big club anyway.
Also, and i care less about this than most, he carries the injury risj of a young pitcher.
Not moving Tabata and Hughes? Ok. Not moving Nunez, Henry and Jackson? Questionable since the Yankees have so little to begin with and since they are raw and both seem riskier (though im not sure they are...Tabatas a long way off and Hughes' health hasnt been a strenght) but they have the talent to make you regret it someday.
But not moving Clippard, Garcia, Gardner and DeSalvo?
Have you lost your freaking mind?
GARDNER!? MICHAEL GARDNER?
What would the Yankess conciveably give then (besides Duncan) even if they took on all of Hunters contract? Marquez, Battle, Vech? No one else in the system looks like a good bet to be a decent player
You just put every good nonDuncan prospect on the untochable list...good luck getting that deal done.
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