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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, December 21, 2012
This is a better use of money than 2/17 on Russell Martin. Liriano could be this year’s version of A.J. Burnett.
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1. Walt Davis Posted: December 21, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4330523)These are the sort of deals I don't get. Over the last two years, Liriano has 291 IP and a 79 ERA+. The K-rate is still fab but the walk rate is through the roof. His health record is on par with Rich Harden and Erik Bedard. A guy to take a $1-2 M flyer on, maybe even 1/$7 but 2/$14? Terrible deal.
Meanwhile Guthrie (600 IP, 100 ERA+ 2010-12) signs for 3/$25 and people make fun of the Royals.
But seriously, either this signing is going to be horrible or it's going to be another feather in the cap of the "NL = AAA" crowd.
Well, if you can do that and get him out on the field for more than 100 innings. The Pirates tried this last year with Bedard but at least had enough sense to make it a 1/$4.5 deal. The Cubs and Rangers tried this with Harden but only on short-term deals. Like I said, doing this even for 1/$7 I could maybe see; doing it for 1/$7 with a $12 M option I could see.
The disembodied voice of Dan Szymborski weighs in.
Be nice!
Part of the perception gap here is a function of defense-independent stuff. Liriano's raw ERA last year was 5.34, but his xFIP was a much friendlier 4.14. In 2011, the xFIP was a still moderately acceptable 4.52, and in 2010, it was a stellar 2.95.
PNC Park is also a very good place for lefties to pitch, which ought to help him.
Sure, but over his last 300 or so innings, spanning 4 seasons and 3 teams, his era+ is 80. xFIP is a good tool but it's not perfect, and Liriano seems like the type of pitcher that xFIP doesn't accurately project.
Two teams, not three. Unless you're counting the Pirates, which would seem kind of cheap...
Also, I get an 86 ERA+ over the last four years, not an 80.
I mistook the "tot" on bref as "tor" and counted 3.
Anyways, I didn't bother to do the math exactly because it doesn't really matter. There are pitchers that DIPS theories don't cover very well. Liriano is one of those guys.
He's pretty much the exact type of pitcher Don Cooper has had great success with, and Cooper struck out with Liriano. Something doesn't add up with him, and I wouldn't pay 14 million to find out if I'm the Pirates.
-- MWE
In any event while it may be true that FIP overrates him, I think it's also fair to go in the other direction and say getting a guy with an 86 ERA+ that FIP overrates is probably better than getting one with an 86 ERA+ that FIP sees the same way. If the first guy gives you something between the two, he's a useful part.
The August-September awfulness is not a one-year phenomenon.
2008: .315
2009: .305
2010: .362
2011: .321
2012: .339
My crackpot theory is that the Pirates' institutional calendar has run from trade deadline to trade deadline for so many years that the team just lets up on August 1.
Oh, and O. Perez was much worse than this guy.
Oddly enough Perez is only two years older and has more WAR over the past two years.
*Putting it in as flattering terms as possible*
EDIT: And Odalis Perez is only 34!
42 wins, an ERA under 3 for the length of this contract. Take it to the bank.
-- MWE
This is not dominance? This is not a Hall of Famer? Wow.
he is not a hall of famer because he hung on 1-2 extra years when he was pretty much cooked to get that 3000 hits and we all know that hall of famers never hang on to the last second
besides, he knew ken caminiti and was friends with him in the early 90s and if that doesn't prove biggio is an alcholic and a drug user, i don't know what does
The other issue I think is that the Pirates depend on two types of players historically: players with very little experience and washed up vets. I would guess that these two types of players are the ones most likely to beak down after the All-Star break.
Well, sure, but Casey Coleman can do that too for a lot less than $7 M. :-)
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