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1. Walt Davis
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4330523)
Assuming Liriano actually throws more pitches than Martin over the next 2 years. :-)
These are the sort of deals I don't get. Over the last two years, Liriano has 291 IP and a 79 ERA+. The K-rate is still fab but the walk rate is through the roof. His health record is on par with Rich Harden and Erik Bedard. A guy to take a $1-2 M flyer on, maybe even 1/$7 but 2/$14? Terrible deal.
Meanwhile Guthrie (600 IP, 100 ERA+ 2010-12) signs for 3/$25 and people make fun of the Royals.
Fun risk to take. Obviously if you can figure something out and bring the walks down a couple of notches, you've really got something. Starting pitchers with that K-rate don't grow on trees. They (realizing that no one around at that time is likely still employed with the team) did coax that one really good year out of the similar Oliver Perez.
Apparently Liriano started 52 games over the last 2 years. My guess would have been 20. My guess of an ERA above 5 was right on the money though.
But seriously, either this signing is going to be horrible or it's going to be another feather in the cap of the "NL = AAA" crowd.
6. Walt Davis
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 06:17 PM (#4330599)
Obviously if you can figure something out and bring the walks down a couple of notches, you've really got something.
Well, if you can do that and get him out on the field for more than 100 innings. The Pirates tried this last year with Bedard but at least had enough sense to make it a 1/$4.5 deal. The Cubs and Rangers tried this with Harden but only on short-term deals. Like I said, doing this even for 1/$7 I could maybe see; doing it for 1/$7 with a $12 M option I could see.
7. madvillain
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 06:40 PM (#4330618)
That's...not a good deal for the Pirates. Don Cooper couldn't do anything with him and despite good stuff, Liriano throws way too many meatballs.
8. Lassus
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4330625)
Part of the perception gap here is a function of defense-independent stuff. Liriano's raw ERA last year was 5.34, but his xFIP was a much friendlier 4.14. In 2011, the xFIP was a still moderately acceptable 4.52, and in 2010, it was a stellar 2.95.
PNC Park is also a very good place for lefties to pitch, which ought to help him.
10. madvillain
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 07:19 PM (#4330639)
Part of the perception gap here is a function of defense-independent stuff. Liriano's raw ERA last year was 5.34, but his xFIP was a much friendlier 4.14. In 2011, the xFIP was a still moderately acceptable 4.52, and in 2010, it was a stellar 2.95.
Sure, but over his last 300 or so innings, spanning 4 seasons and 3 teams, his era+ is 80. xFIP is a good tool but it's not perfect, and Liriano seems like the type of pitcher that xFIP doesn't accurately project.
Sure, but over his last 300 or so innings, spanning 4 seasons and 3 teams, his era+ is 80.
Two teams, not three. Unless you're counting the Pirates, which would seem kind of cheap...
Also, I get an 86 ERA+ over the last four years, not an 80.
12. madvillain
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 07:44 PM (#4330649)
Two teams, not three. Unless you're counting the Pirates, which would seem kind of cheap...
Also, I get an 86 ERA+ over the last four years, not an 80.
I mistook the "tot" on bref as "tor" and counted 3.
Anyways, I didn't bother to do the math exactly because it doesn't really matter. There are pitchers that DIPS theories don't cover very well. Liriano is one of those guys.
He's pretty much the exact type of pitcher Don Cooper has had great success with, and Cooper struck out with Liriano. Something doesn't add up with him, and I wouldn't pay 14 million to find out if I'm the Pirates.
13. Mike Emeigh
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4330669)
Again, though, this is the team where AJ Burnett got straightened out. Burnett dropped a walk per nine innings in 2012 and went from two straight years of an ERA over 5 to 3.51. I think Liriano is in exactly the same place; the rest of his arsenal is pretty good and most of what he needs to do is to stop throwing so many pitches outside of the strike zone.
-- MWE
14. DL from MN
Posted: December 21, 2012 at 08:41 PM (#4330672)
Part of Liriano's problem was terrible repeatability in his mechanics from the stretch. Much worse with runners on base.
Liriano's ERA+ is unfairly low in that he's given up a really small number of unearned runs (for reasons having to do with his pitching style, with all the walks, strikeouts and homers, his fielders don't see much action). He's been a better pitcher than that 86 ERA+ by looking at runs allowed instead.
In any event while it may be true that FIP overrates him, I think it's also fair to go in the other direction and say getting a guy with an 86 ERA+ that FIP overrates is probably better than getting one with an 86 ERA+ that FIP sees the same way. If the first guy gives you something between the two, he's a useful part.
16. Walt Davis
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4330766)
AJ Burnett also was (and is) a guy you could kinda rely to give you at least 180 IP. Liriano is a guy you have to (a) straighten out and (b) keep on the field for 180 innings just to get him to (c) Edwin Jackson. Again, guys like Bedard and Harden were good pitchers who couldn't stay healthy; Liriano has been a bad pitcher who can't stay healthy. That is not an attractive package and not somebody you guarantee 2 years.
17. Sunday silence
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 04:16 AM (#4330817)
Can someone who follows the Bucs closely explain what the hell happened near the trade deadline or whatever it was when they were within a few games of Cincy, they brought up Marte, and traded for Snider and Sanchez. They seemed like reasonable decisions and then won like 33% of their games the last two months of the season. what the hell happened?
18. Rennie's Tenet
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 09:15 AM (#4330838)
what the hell happened?
The August-September awfulness is not a one-year phenomenon.
My crackpot theory is that the Pirates' institutional calendar has run from trade deadline to trade deadline for so many years that the team just lets up on August 1.
19. Arbitol Dijaler
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 09:24 AM (#4330842)
I would think his success in the (albeit increasingly distant) past would make him a slightly better bet than your average DIPS-defier. Obviously the Pirates are paying a premium because of 2006 Liriano, maybe one that is too high.
Oh, and O. Perez was much worse than this guy.
20. Greg K
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4330890)
Oh, and O. Perez was much worse than this guy.
Oddly enough Perez is only two years older and has more WAR over the past two years.
But seriously, either this signing is going to be horrible or it's going to be another feather in the cap of the "NL = AAA" crowd.
42 wins, an ERA under 3 for the length of this contract. Take it to the bank.
22. Mike Emeigh
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 12:10 PM (#4330899)
The quick answer on "what the hell happened", at least in 2012, is that (a) the Pirates ran up their record in July against the lesser teams in the NL, (b) they reverted to form when the schedule got tougher in August, and (c) Neil Walker got hurt, and the team simply didn't have enough depth to overcome that loss.
-- MWE
23. Bruce Markusen
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4330922)
Wow, Biggio is not a Hall of Famer? He scored more than 100 runs eight times, stole over 400 bases, hit nearly 300 home runs, played well defensively at a tough position, and had the 3,000 hits.
This is not dominance? This is not a Hall of Famer? Wow.
24. base ball chick
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4330930)
bruce
he is not a hall of famer because he hung on 1-2 extra years when he was pretty much cooked to get that 3000 hits and we all know that hall of famers never hang on to the last second
besides, he knew ken caminiti and was friends with him in the early 90s and if that doesn't prove biggio is an alcholic and a drug user, i don't know what does
pirate left field fence is a mile from home plate. liriano can let tough guys try and take him deep all day long at pnc and let the outfielder track down the fly balls.
26. Russ
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4330989)
Basically Mike's reason (c) is the kind of reason for the crappy August records in general. The Pirates never have any depth and by August, something has inevitably gone wrong and that lack of depth is exposed.
The other issue I think is that the Pirates depend on two types of players historically: players with very little experience and washed up vets. I would guess that these two types of players are the ones most likely to beak down after the All-Star break.
27. Walt Davis
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 09:01 PM (#4331174)
liriano can let tough guys try and take him deep all day long at pnc and let the outfielder track down the fly balls.
Well, sure, but Casey Coleman can do that too for a lot less than $7 M. :-)
28. DL from MN
Posted: December 22, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4331264)
Target Field LF was pretty far away. It's hard for Liriano to be effective when he can't locate the slider whenever he has to pitch from the stretch. Then he's fastball/change and players can hit that. The nasty slider is the reason he's in the big leagues. Last year it seemed like all the K's bunched together until someone got on base and then you got all the BB and HR.
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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Walt Davis Posted: December 21, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4330523)These are the sort of deals I don't get. Over the last two years, Liriano has 291 IP and a 79 ERA+. The K-rate is still fab but the walk rate is through the roof. His health record is on par with Rich Harden and Erik Bedard. A guy to take a $1-2 M flyer on, maybe even 1/$7 but 2/$14? Terrible deal.
Meanwhile Guthrie (600 IP, 100 ERA+ 2010-12) signs for 3/$25 and people make fun of the Royals.
But seriously, either this signing is going to be horrible or it's going to be another feather in the cap of the "NL = AAA" crowd.
Well, if you can do that and get him out on the field for more than 100 innings. The Pirates tried this last year with Bedard but at least had enough sense to make it a 1/$4.5 deal. The Cubs and Rangers tried this with Harden but only on short-term deals. Like I said, doing this even for 1/$7 I could maybe see; doing it for 1/$7 with a $12 M option I could see.
The disembodied voice of Dan Szymborski weighs in.
Be nice!
Part of the perception gap here is a function of defense-independent stuff. Liriano's raw ERA last year was 5.34, but his xFIP was a much friendlier 4.14. In 2011, the xFIP was a still moderately acceptable 4.52, and in 2010, it was a stellar 2.95.
PNC Park is also a very good place for lefties to pitch, which ought to help him.
Sure, but over his last 300 or so innings, spanning 4 seasons and 3 teams, his era+ is 80. xFIP is a good tool but it's not perfect, and Liriano seems like the type of pitcher that xFIP doesn't accurately project.
Two teams, not three. Unless you're counting the Pirates, which would seem kind of cheap...
Also, I get an 86 ERA+ over the last four years, not an 80.
I mistook the "tot" on bref as "tor" and counted 3.
Anyways, I didn't bother to do the math exactly because it doesn't really matter. There are pitchers that DIPS theories don't cover very well. Liriano is one of those guys.
He's pretty much the exact type of pitcher Don Cooper has had great success with, and Cooper struck out with Liriano. Something doesn't add up with him, and I wouldn't pay 14 million to find out if I'm the Pirates.
-- MWE
In any event while it may be true that FIP overrates him, I think it's also fair to go in the other direction and say getting a guy with an 86 ERA+ that FIP overrates is probably better than getting one with an 86 ERA+ that FIP sees the same way. If the first guy gives you something between the two, he's a useful part.
The August-September awfulness is not a one-year phenomenon.
2008: .315
2009: .305
2010: .362
2011: .321
2012: .339
My crackpot theory is that the Pirates' institutional calendar has run from trade deadline to trade deadline for so many years that the team just lets up on August 1.
Oh, and O. Perez was much worse than this guy.
Oddly enough Perez is only two years older and has more WAR over the past two years.
*Putting it in as flattering terms as possible*
EDIT: And Odalis Perez is only 34!
42 wins, an ERA under 3 for the length of this contract. Take it to the bank.
-- MWE
This is not dominance? This is not a Hall of Famer? Wow.
he is not a hall of famer because he hung on 1-2 extra years when he was pretty much cooked to get that 3000 hits and we all know that hall of famers never hang on to the last second
besides, he knew ken caminiti and was friends with him in the early 90s and if that doesn't prove biggio is an alcholic and a drug user, i don't know what does
The other issue I think is that the Pirates depend on two types of players historically: players with very little experience and washed up vets. I would guess that these two types of players are the ones most likely to beak down after the All-Star break.
Well, sure, but Casey Coleman can do that too for a lot less than $7 M. :-)
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