At no point. This team is only slightly better than last year's and will finish around 70-75 wins. I made a bet about this with someone last year, when they were in first place, that they wouldn't top 75 wins, and won it (but never collected because I can't even remember who it was with anymore) and I will happily do the same this year. They're a bad team on a hot/lucky streak. I wish/hope their management knows that.

At what point is it safe to get excited about this team?

I don't know, but it is always a good time to be excited about Andrew McCutchen. .325/.388/.563 so far and he's going to be a Pirate for a long time.

It's fun to get excited, even if it doesn't last. Seeing Washington, Baltimore, Pittsburgh in position to make the playoffs in mid-June is a lot better than spending an entire season watching the same old suspects grind their way to the postseason while the same old suspects sink to the bottom of their divisions.

This team is only slightly better than last year's and will finish around 70-75 wins.

You're probably right. But one other difference between 2011 and 2012 is that there were two pretty good teams in the NL Central last year. There may be not be any this year.

I don't know, but it is always a good time to be excited about Andrew McCutchen. .325/.388/.563 so far and he's going to be a Pirate for a long time.

I love McCutchen and hope that the Pirates can field a real team at some point in time in his career. I agree with post 1, not to the same extent, but I think this team will call it a victory if they finish the season above .500.

You're probably right. But one other difference between 2011 and 2012 is that there were two pretty good teams in the NL Central last year. There may be not be any this year.

Disagree, the Cardinals are a real good team still. I'm not sold on the Reds or the Brewers as much, but they are both better than the Pirates.

the pirates defense is pretty good. toss in pitchers who throw strikes and that's a good combo.

the cards lead the league in runs scored and are above average in run prevention. them being at .500 is kind of odd

the brewers have been undermined by poor defense and a bullpen that cannot even be mediocre. everyone except loe gets hammered half the time. the brewers offense has held up just fine but fans keep yammering about this lineup or that lineup.

the reds need latos to adjust and right quick. that reds bullpen is really good. if dusty gets the offense figured out the reds could get to 90 wins pretty easily.

Disagree, the Cardinals are a real good team still.

I know their pythag is much better than their record, but I'm going to hold off on "real good" for the time being. YMMV.

It's going to be very aggravating for Pirates fans if Erik Bedard is still pitching reasonably well in July and the Pirates decide to keep him, seeing that (a) the Pirates aren't contenders, and (b) Bedard always shuts down by the end of August anyway.

the brewers offense has held up just fine but fans keep yammering about this lineup or that lineup.

I didn't realize until yesterday that Rickie Weeks had gotten off to such an abysmal start. .158/.298/.287!

sweat

rickie has had bad luck but speaking only for myself i think after two months a guy has had time to work out of it and a taylor green deserves some time.

I didn't realize until yesterday that Rickie Weeks had gotten off to such an abysmal start. .158/.298/.287!

The fans of my roto league team are exceptionally aware of how much he's sucked...

As for the NL Central, I think the Cardinals are better than a .500 team and better than the Pirates, but I also don't think Yadier Molina will contend for the batting title or that they can keep getting pick-me-ups from bit players and unexpected arms whenever expected performers get hurt.

I look at the Pirates and I do see a team that has had a lot more going wrong for them then right -- yes, yes, Bedard is amazingly healthy and effective.... but only Cutch is hitting. I wouldn't have expected Tabata, Presley, Alvarez, and Walker (to a slightly lesser extent) to all suck to the degree that they've sucked. What's more (or less), McGeehee, Jones, and Barmes have all been awful (jones perhaps a bit less so) - while I wasn't expecting all-star years out of any of them, I would have expected them to at least be serviceable.

I think the Cardinals are probably the best team in the central -- but I don't think the gap is so large as some appear to believe. I could see the Bucs scrumming with the Reds and Cards for the division if a few things start going right(er) for them. Unfortunately, I think winning the division is the only NL Central playoff ticket that'll be punched.

It would also help them immensely, I think, if the Pirates were to pick up a veteran slugger to play one of the corner OF spots... someone right-handed, prone to hot streaks, and who could be had relatively cheaply.

You're probably right. But one other difference between 2011 and 2012 is that there were two pretty good teams in the NL Central last year. There may be not be any this year.

1-run games:

Pittsburgh 17-10
St. Louis 5-10.

Which leads to a whopping 10 game Pythagorean difference in the standings; they should be 8 games up on the Pirates (& 4 games on the Reds).

It's fun to get excited, even if it doesn't last. Seeing Washington, Baltimore, Pittsburgh in position to make the playoffs in mid-June is a lot better than spending an entire season watching the same old suspects grind their way to the postseason while the same old suspects sink to the bottom of their divisions.

Yes and I'd add Cleveland to this list. Maybe the Dodgers.

The fans of my roto league team are exceptionally aware of how much he's sucked...

You're roto league team has fans?

Which leads to a whopping 10 game Pythagorean difference in the standings; they should be 8 games up on the Pirates (& 4 games on the Reds).

Sure, but I think it's just as likely that while the Cards are underperforming their pythag, they're also overperforming (dramatically) their talent level.

Now, I don't think the Pirates are as good as the Cards (or the Reds). I just don't think that anyone in the NL Central is all that good.

It would also help them immensely, I think, if the Pirates were to pick up a veteran slugger to play one of the corner OF spots... someone right-handed, prone to hot streaks, and who could be had relatively cheaply.

"There's a Theo Epstein for you on line 2..."

[1] If you're the same person as Mash Wilson, then it was with Matt Clement of Alexandria in this thread (posts 23 and 24).

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/pirates_in_1st_place

this will come across as complete homerism but i find it interesting that in this brief thread and elsewhere folks seem to think milwaukee is done. to get to 85 wins, my standard nl central benchmark to be in contention, the brewers have to play .559 ball over the remaining 102 games. that does not seem like an outrageous hurdle to clear.

i won't make the case because folks can look at the roster as easily as i can but if the brewers get any positive bounce in the bullpen and resist playing izturis when he returns from injury i think the crew can defend their division title.

I also don't think Yadier Molina will contend for the batting title or that they can keep getting pick-me-ups from bit players and unexpected arms whenever expected performers get hurt.

He's not going to contend for a batting title, but .300 average from him isn't out of the question. Since 2008 his average is .295. He's not the same Molina that was a 23 year and putting up a 53 ops+, over his last 2200 plate appearances he has a line of .295/.352/.408/.759 106 ops+. At some point in time, people are going to have to realize he's a good offensive player relative to his position.

that they can keep getting pick-me-ups from bit players and unexpected arms whenever expected performers get hurt.

Why not? Seems like that's been the Cardinal way for the better part of a decade.

I don't know, but it is always a good time to be excited about Andrew McCutchen. .325/.388/.563 so far and he's going to be a Pirate for a long time.

161 OPS+, leads team, number 2 is Garret Jones with a 99 in 142 PAs, that's right, no one, not even a bench player with 10 PAs has an OPS+ of 100 or over except for Andrew. Stunning.

Neil Walker is showing signs of hitting, but for the rest?

Pedro Alvarez is still not hitting and his K/BB has regressed yet again
Clint Barmes is doing his best to make the Pirates miss Ronny Cedeno, seriously is Barmes the caliber/type of player who is supposed to be a starter in the MLB at age 33?
Tabata... just not developing

folks dump on the nl central every season yet this is a pretty decent stretch from 2002-2011

nl pennant winner is from nl central: 4 times

champion: 2

wild card entries into playoffs: 4

so that's 2 champs and 8 playoff teams in 10 years

is that really that bad?

and note i didn't discuss best record in nl since folks will immediately respond with teams fattening up on division foes.

which of course also plays into wild card entrants to some extent

and not that they would have helped this year, but their 2 top 10 draft choice stud pitchers? 1 (Allie) doesn't pitch any more, until he switches back again; and the other (Taillon, at #2) has been hammered in his last 5 or 6 starts, which by no means is fatal, but he sure doesn't look Bundey-esque, or even in the same universe.

Sure, but I think it's just as likely that while the Cards are underperforming their pythag, they're also overperforming (dramatically) their talent level.

Where? The Cardinals top 8 hitters in plate appearances are doing roughly what you expect(Craig above--but Craig is legitimately a 120 ops+ hitter, Holliday below). Their 8th hitter(Carpenter with 102 plate appearances) is wildly overperforming, expectations, the injury bug has been about expected.

The only real over performer so far, that has made a difference has been Lance Lynn. I'll say that Lohse overperformance will be compensated by Wainwrights return to form. (They both will end the season between 100-110 era+)

You're roto league team has fans?

Absolutely.

The Helton Skelters are one of the marquee franchises in the venerable Busch League. I still get hate mail for tossing in the towel in 2009 when we were trying to 3peat, dealing veterans for Jason Heyward and something called Domonic Brown because I just didn't see a path to the title, then promptly signing him to a bloated contract. You'd think they'd be over it by now, but for the 2nd straight year, I'm wallowing in the second division... For the first time last offseason, we had unsold tickets to the annual offseason Skelter fan convention.

The fact that the Orioles, Indians, Pirates, and Nationals are competing isn't a sign of their talent, but a sign of the lack of talent across the league. When no great teams exist, mediocre teams can sneak in.

It's fun to get excited, even if it doesn't last. Seeing Washington, Baltimore, Pittsburgh in position to make the playoffs in mid-June is a lot better than spending an entire season watching the same old suspects grind their way to the postseason while the same old suspects sink to the bottom of their divisions.

One of those three will make it. Unfortunately (as a Birds fan), my money's on Washington--I mean, Gio, Strasburg, Harper...

Where? The Cardinals top 8 hitters in plate appearances are doing roughly what you expect(Craig above--but Craig is legitimately a 120 ops+ hitter, Holliday below). Their 8th hitter(Carpenter with 102 plate appearances) is wildly overperforming, expectations, the injury bug has been about expected.

Molina, Craig, Jay, Carpenter and Beltran are all above what I think are normal expectations. No one is meaningfully below (maybe Holliday).

Oh Sam, you are so predictably shrill.

this will come across as complete homerism but i find it interesting that in this brief thread and elsewhere folks seem to think milwaukee is done. to get to 85 wins, my standard nl central benchmark to be in contention, the brewers have to play .559 ball over the remaining 102 games. that does not seem like an outrageous hurdle to clear.

I don't think anyone thinks Milwaukee is done, and 85 wins is not going to win the division, not when you have two sad sack teams like the Cubs and Astros to beat up on and pad the win total.

Molina, Craig, Jay, Carpenter and Beltran are all above what I think are normal expectations. No one is meaningfully below (maybe Holliday). Two of their pitchers have pitched above expectations

Jay has posted a career ops+ of 115, has a 129 currently in 117 plate appearances has missed half the season so far. Roughly speaking the difference in his career average and his current level is 4 singles. That isn't a factor.

Craig, is overperforming, but he is also a legitimate heart of the order bat, about half of the teams in baseball he would be in the starting everyday lineup batting 3/4/5, and again we are talking about only 100 plate appearances, the difference between his current performance and his expected performance is basically one good game. Carpenter I'll give you.(Same caveats as Jay and Craig, with the exception I do not think Carpenter is realistically even a 110 ops+ major league hitter right now) Beltran? Yes he's overperforming, but again he's a genuine 140 ops+ hitter. That is compensated by Holliday underperforming.

Offensively this team is probably a little above where they should be as far as runs per game goes, but coming into the season everyone thought they had the best offense in the NL, and that was with the assumption of Beltran/Berkman/Holliday and Freese missing playing time. Nothing has changed to make it seem any different.


Pitching is the spot where there has been a legitimate major over achiever, and that is of course Lynn and Lohse. Neither are going to continue their run, Wainwright should compensate for Lohse expected return to earth. Lynn is the wild card. As the league gets a better handle on him, his runs allowed will explode, but at the same time the team has already stated that they plan on being very cautious with his innings pitched, meaning the bullpen is going to figure into many of his games. Mind you that may not be a good thing with the jeckyll and hyde nature of bullpens.

cfb

i wrote be in contention.

and in a league where things look to be compressed around the center anything a hair over .500 will put in the mix.

and in a league where things look to be compressed around the center anything a hair over .500 will put in the mix.

Oh Harvey, you are so predictably shrill.

I knew that AJ Burnett would be pitching for a first-place team in 2012.

Pedro Alvarez is still not hitting and his K/BB has regressed yet again

He had one stretch where he looked like the Alvarez from late 2010. Other than that he has been putrid, right?

It would also help them immensely, I think, if the Pirates were to pick up a veteran slugger to play one of the corner OF spots... someone right-handed, prone to hot streaks, and who could be had relatively cheaply.

So you're saying they should sign Jermaine Dye?

the cards lead the league in runs scored and are above average in run prevention. them being at .500 is kind of odd

i'm getting very freaked out ... i always felt like if the cards go in a funk like this, TLR and duncan would spread their pixie dust on the boys and they'd get up off the floor. with those two not around, i am irrationally upset ... but that's pretty much what i am all the time.

Oh for crying out loud, the NL average is 7.7 K/9. That's just silly. Seaver's career average is 6.8 and he once led the league at 7.7

we had unsold tickets to the annual offseason Skelter fan convention.

And game tix are going for 50 cents on StubHub.

Is there any particular reason why Jason Grilli has struck out 39 guys in 23 innings?

[1] If you're the same person as Mash Wilson, then it was with Matt Clement of Alexandria in this thread (posts 23 and 24).

####, how long was I posting under that name? My roommate last spring made that account and posted like 4 times. Yeah, that was me.

I'm not really a big fan of what the Pirates are doing for the future, either. They're going to be fielding a very low-wattage offense for quite a while.

post 40

he's throwing 95 with movement and a decent breaking pitch. grilli impressed me last season and continues to do so

Oh Sam, you are so predictably shrill.

I can understand why Sam is ticked off today. The way those Braves pitchers completely imploded like that yesterday is enough to make a guy want to stab someone in the neck.

Joey's still incapable of reading for comprehension, I see.

he's throwing 95 with movement and a decent breaking pitch. grilli impressed me last season and continues to do so

Grilli was once fairly well thought of, wasn't he? I struggle to see how a guy becomes so lights out at age 35 - did he pick up a new pitch or something? He actually had pretty decent K rates through much of his 30s, but he's suddenly just become unbelievably lights out.

The Pirates bullpen in general looks like it's been pretty fantastic... It's a nice collection of castoffs, forgottens, and reclamations. Without checking, I think Cruz (and maybe Hanrahan?) are probably the only ones making any real money... In short, it's precisely the sort of bullpen I love.

And somehow the Cubs with their 9 million dollar closer don't have a single reliever that would be good enough to be in the Pirates' pen.

And somehow the Cubs with their 9 million dollar closer don't have a single reliever that would be good enough to be in the Pirates' pen.

I don't know... Shawn Camp wouldn't be turned away and I suppose Russell might be acceptable as a 2nd LOOGY.

Someone needs to keep Soriano company in Pittsburgh.