“Thin”.

Maybe he meant skinny.
Sheets could not hold Colon's jock when it comes to a visit to Hometown Buffet.
So, maybe he meant skinny.

For all those reasons and Shawn Chacon making a triumphant return to the starting rotation - yeah, the Pirates could laugh last.

When you replace Tony Armas with Shawn Chacon and it turns out to be an upgrade, you're big time.

I have been travelling which kept me from commenting on last week's less than impressive commentary regarding Milwaukee. A few points for folks to consider since common sense and critical reasoning seemed to have left the premises.

First, good teams beat up on bad teams. Teams don't win divisions by winning 60% of their games against other good teams. They dominate the bad teams and play ok against other good teams. Not so? Please, do take the time and review the records of the division/pennant winners over the course of a reasonable time period and I guarantee, GUARANTEE, you will find that to be the case. Be it the Brooklyn Dodgers of the 50's beating the snot out of the Pirates or the New York Mets of the mid to late 80's beating the snot out of the Pirates that is what happens. So this whole Dayn Perry/Joe Sheehan line of thinking that Milwaukee is a joke because they haven't beat anybody is demonstrative of a complete lack of historical perspective. Which is my polite way of writing that their columns and comments concerning the Brewers have been incredibly silly. Or dumb. Whichever adjective the reader deems more appropriate.

Second, folks do recall that Ben Sheets pitched regularly in the rotation for three straight seasons and exceeded the 200 inning mark each season? It is in the archives if one needs to verify. And that two disparate injuries of a non elbow and non rotator cuff nature kept him out of action the past seasons? Again, that also can be validated. Curt Schilling pitched less than 200 innings over his age 27 and 28 seasons and he seems to have bounced back pretty well. Rick Rhoden had a three year semi-timeout in his career and then churned out a series of 200 inning seasons. Ben has the thick pitchers build, good mechanics, and an overall positive history. I think folks need to point to something other than "He ruined my fantasy team." before branding someone the new Bret Saberhagen.

Finally, this ream of articles from writers in other NL Central cities smacks of folks looking to make excuses on behalf of their organizations. (The one exception being Hal McCoy in Dayton.) I'm sorry Milwaukee had a plan. I'm sorry that the Milwaukee organization stayed committed to that plan. I'm sorry that Doug Melvin has the sense God gave the common rabbit. I'm sorry that Prince Fielder appears to be developing as per the standard projection models. I'm sorry that so far in 2007 J.J. Hardy is exceeding expectations. I'm sorry that Rickie Weeks worked hard on his defense and got better which defies the understanding of Nate Silver who openly declared Weeks "hopeless". I'm sorry that Bill Hall didn't b*tch, p*ss, and moan about moving to centerfield and that the club has stuck with him despite some early season goofs. I'm sorry that Geoff Jenkins has been a stand up guy and taken out his anger at being platooned on the baseball as opposed to sulking in the clubhouse. I'm sorry that Derrick Turnbow swallowed his pride and has evolved into a solid setup man.

I'm REALLY, REALLY, REALLY SORRY that this group of players wants to do well, worked on their respective games to generate better results, and now have the audacity to actually win games. I understand that this type of approach is not common the National League Central. But hey, nothing wrong with taking a new approach and exploiting a market inefficiency.

Excellent Harveys. I doubt I'll read a better post all day.

People laughed at me at the preseason fantasy draft. "You sure have a lot of Brewer, don't you?". It seems to be working out allright. The pitching being thin is another joke. You want thin pitching?, try the other 5 NL central teams. I'm still waiting for David Bush to have a dominant stretch, though I'll probably stick with him longer than most, having played for the same high school (10 yrs apart).

Apologize for nothing Harvey -- enjoy the winning, you've waited a long time for ity.

Whew, Harvey. That's got a solidity and logic that few rants have. Well done.

And, as a Cardinals fan living in Chicago--and within about two more bad weeks of giving up on my guys for the summer--I am really enjoying the Brewers' success. They've been a fun team to watch for a couple of years, and now that their young players are making good on their potential all at once, they're even more fun. And that's all _before_ I start thinking about how awesome Turnbow's hair is.

Now, I'd still like to see them lose their next twenty games so the Cardinals would have a chance to get back in it. But assuming that doesn't happen, come September it'll be hard for me to root against the Brew Crew.

come September it'll be hard for me to root against the Brew Crew.

As a Cubs fan if the Brewers make the post-season and the Cubs don't I too will be pulling for the Brew-crew.

The pitching being thin is another joke. You want thin pitching?, try the other 5 NL central teams.

I have very little complants about the Cubs starting pitching this year. A little worried about Zambrano but not much.

Milwaukee is not a great team. Milwaukee is not a perfect team. Milwaukee is not a dominant team. But this team has HOPE. This team has PROMISE.

And more than anything else I think that is what bothers fans in other cities. Because they don't see those qualities in their teams. And for that I am legitimately sorry. Because I have been there and it is no fun.

What has astonished me, as in honest and legitimate amazement, is that Milwaukee was held up for years as an example of how teams in "small markets" can't compete, that the organization has no chance, and that everyone should pity the fans of Milwaukee.

And then 2007 comes and the team is doing well and every schmoe on ESPN, CNSSI, FOX, etc. spends their NL Central commentary on how Milwaukee is overrated and boy are the chickens going to come to roost.

Overrated? OVERRATED??? When the h*ll did Milwaukee become RATED??!!!! Jes*s H. Chr*st. I spend time and money wading through the muck and the mire of Jeff Juden and Jeffery Hammond watching and when the moment finally arrives when my team has a square chance to win any game on its schedule all the noise around the team is that it s*cks.

And them folks at the networks aren't alone in this nonsense. Folks right here in my own backyard espousing the identical drivel. At the so-called "Thinking Fan" site no less. The team loses 2 out of 3 to the Mets and the Brewers season is declared kaput. The team's manager helps the squad blow the first two games of the Philly series and folks around here are already looking to dismantle the team, tear down the stadium, and open a water park on the available property.

While the stooges wearing coats with insignias have the excuse of being shallow and stupid I think the reason the denizens of BBTF are so desperate to be both "right" and "first" that all kinds of absurd arguments are proposed. All in the name of being able to post a link in some future thread to show the world that "Yup, that such and such was going to happen? I called it. See, link. SEE THIS LINK. SEE THE LINK WHERE I WAS RIGHT BEFORE ANYONE ELSE!!!!!!!!!!"

Well, ya' all squabble about when the Brewers are going to collapse be it a June swoon or a July fry or what have you. Me? I'm going to watch some baseball and cheer on the home fellers.

Second, folks do recall that Ben Sheets pitched regularly in the rotation for three straight seasons and exceeded the 200 inning mark each season?

I did. I picked Sheets as a dark horse Cy Young candidate before the season, and he's on my fantasy team's staff. His K-rate is lower than I expected but I think he'll turn it around.

Sheets was unfortunate enough to miss time two seasons in a row, which saddled him with the "fragile" tag.

The Milwaukee-hate can be largely explained by that bit I heard about Kruk a few weeks ago in which he admitted that ESPN pushes him and his colleagues to take audacious or contrary positions in the name of allegedly exciting television. In their minds it's boring to say that the Brewers are a solid team so, like Harvey says, they have to jump to be first or controversial or what have you.

ESPN isn't alone in this. It seems that most web-based publications traffic in controversy or iconoclasm in an effort to differentiate themselves, even though the positions one must have to take to truly stand out are often absurd.

Conventional wisdom may be boring, and it is often wrong, but the notion that anything that isn't CW is good analysis is simply silly.

And then 2007 comes and the team is doing well and every schmoe on ESPN, CNSSI, FOX, etc. spends their NL Central commentary on how Milwaukee is overrated

Is this true? I can't really speak for SI or FOX, but every ESPN guy I've heard on the radio, starting with Kurkjian two weeks ago, has essentially said, "Well, we'll see how they match up once the schedule gets tougher but, yes, they're a for-real playoff contender."

sadly those who follow the nl central should have seen this comming. milwaukee has been building a solid team over the last few years, will this be the one where they win the division? im not so sure, but i know for the next 3 or so years they will be a force to reckon with. they might win it this year, though sadly not because of how good they but just because how bad some of the central is.

oh and the pirates will never have the last laugh, littlefield is their gm that automatically disqualifys them, he will ##### it up some how

Post 11:

Well, I wouldn't post something that I know to be false. I may have overstated to some extent, but I have clearly heard some of the blathering fools use the word "overrated". And that term was used here, as in a thread on BBTF, as well.

And if not's that spiel there are folks wishing the team to fold. Even good fans who know their bum from their elbow are relishing in every Brewer loss. Do people here sit around a relative's bed chanting, "Die, die, die"?

well i know that i love every brewer loss, but then im a cubs fan, so what woulda ya expect

First, good teams beat up on bad teams. Teams don't win divisions by winning 60% of their games against other good teams. They dominate the bad teams and play ok against other good teams. Not so? Please, do take the time and review the records of the division/pennant winners over the course of a reasonable time period and I guarantee, GUARANTEE, you will find that to be the case. Be it the Brooklyn Dodgers of the 50's beating the snot out of the Pirates or the New York Mets of the mid to late 80's beating the snot out of the Pirates that is what happens.

1947-56 Dodgers vs. .500+ teams: 344-297, .537 Pct
1947-56 Dodgers vs. .500- teams: 601-299, .668 Pct

1984-90 Mets vs. .500+ teams: 277-243, .533 Pct
1984-90 Mets vs. .500- teams: 389-223, .636 Pct

Brewers are currently 5-6 against .500+ teams. Others under .500 from the listed Dodger/Mets teams:

1948 Dodgers 40-48
1949 Dodgers 21-23
1952 Dodgers 42-46 (54-11 against the second division!)
1954 Dodgers 19-25
1956 Dodgers 21-23
1984 Mets 29-37 (including a slew of losses to the '84 Cubs)
1989 Mets 41-49

Milwaukee is not a great team. Milwaukee is not a perfect team. Milwaukee is not a dominant team. But this team has HOPE. This team has PROMISE.

Best of all this team has a six and a half game lead past the quarter turn.

Chris:

I presume you are sharing the numbers for those unwilling to take my word as gospel? Ha, ha.

But this applies to the vast majority of good teams and has since the game began. Why allegedly informed people completely overlook this incrediby obvious FACT surprises me.

All in the name of being able to post a link in some future thread to show the world that "Yup, that such and such was going to happen? I called it. See, link. SEE THIS LINK. SEE THE LINK WHERE I WAS RIGHT BEFORE ANYONE ELSE!!!!!!!!!!"

When the Brewers signed Suppan:

Kiko Sakata Posted: December 24, 2006 at 06:40 PM (#2268219)

This was mentioned in another thread, so I'll repeat my comment from there. I really like this deal for the Brewers. I think they're easily the favorites in the NL Central right now, and I can't see any of the other 5 teams catching up the rest of the offseason.

I called it. See, link. SEE THIS LINK. SEE THE LINK WHERE I WAS RIGHT BEFORE ANYONE ELSE!!!!!!!!!!

I did. I picked Sheets as a dark horse Cy Young candidate before the season, and he's on my fantasy team's staff. His K-rate is lower than I expected but I think he'll turn it around.

Me too, I went after some recently injured pitchers this year - Sheets, Pedro, Colon, Big Unit. I'll be happy as long as I've got at least two of them healthy.

Kiko:

Now THAT'S funny. Thanks for the chuckle.

Agree with much of Harvey's post.

However, there is something to be said about the Brew Crew's W-L record. They have won more than their share of close games, which you can either attribute to
a. luck, or
b. the closer allowing 5 hits in 19 IP to date

neither of which is likely to hold up :)

My guess is they are a 85- to 90- win team, which if they overperform a bit could make them a 95-win team, a.k.a. NL Central champs unless the Cubbies get real hot, in which case they would still probably be the wild card. Go Milwaukee!

Harveys -

As a White Sox fan, I know exactly how you feel. I heard the exact same things in 2005.

EDIT: And yes, to some extent the Sox got lucky in 2005. But sometimes it's more fun to be lucky than good.

My guess is they are a 85- to 90- win team, which if they overperform a bit could make them a 95-win team

If they're really a 90 win team, and don't overperform the rest of the way, they should win 91-92. (checks). They're pythag records says they're a 90 win team, but if they match their pythag record the rest of the way, they'll go 65-52 from here on out. That gives them a 93-69 season record.

They don't need to overperform to break 90 because they already have overperformed. The flipside's the Cubs.

EDIT: And yes, to some extent the Sox got lucky in 2005. But sometimes it's more fun to be lucky than good.

How many first place teams don't get some luck? They're lucky and good.

Milwaukee has been extraordinarily healthy this season. If folks wanted to point to "luck" that is where I would begin. You always have a much better chance to win when your best players are on the field.

What I find encouraging is that Milwaukee's "second string" outfield of Hart/Gross/Gwynn Jr. is as good as some team's first string outfields. Contrast that with the days when the Crew was lucky to trot out one guy who was deemed "Major League Average".

By the way, for anyone curious about Gwynn Jr. suddenly "learning to hit" this season teams keep throwing him fastballs, middle in, around thigh way and to the lad's credit he goes "Whoopee" and laces another hit. For the Cubs fans think Dwight Smith circa 1989.

Anyway, I am glad for the youngster but until I see him handle legit breaking stuff I will reserve judgement. But yes, he can hit a fastball. That hurdle has been cleared.

Why allegedly informed people completely overlook this incrediby obvious FACT surprises me.

Just because it hasn't been mentioned doesn't mean it's been overlooked. Also not mentioned was that the sun rose in the east today. Why are you people overlooking this obvious FACT?! Look, we all know it's a long season, it's too early to tell, they've got a big lead and we're happy about that, etc. etc. That doesn't mean that we can't point out the obvious fact of how crappy the Brewers looked the second they faced any team of quality this year. I'm not talking about this column. I haven't read it and I'm not going to. I'm addressing your specific calling out of the thinking fans here. They didn't get some bad breaks against the Mets, Phillies and Twins; they got their heads handed to them. The two wins they managed against the Phillies and Twins were both by one run. They're going to be fine; they're going to win the division. Just speaking for myself, I still reserve the right to gripe when they play like crap. Sorry.

I picked the Brewers to win the 2006 NL Central Division title, so of course, I didn't pick them this year.


As a White Sox fan, I know exactly how you feel. I heard the exact same things in 2005.

When did people begin to believe in the 2006 Tigers?

The local sports radio guy in KC has kinda adopted the Brewers as his favorite team this summer and is urging listeners to do the same. He's already directed people to Pee Your Pants For the Brewers.

I'll be pulling for them this summer. I always pull for small market teams. And I look smart for drafting Bill Hall, Chris Capuano, and Jeff Suppan in my fantasy league. If only I had taken Hardy!

hsfw

EVERY SINGLE TEAM plays like crap some days and the 27 yankees other days.

so you would be happy if the bad days were losing 6 to the pirates?

every great team and GOOD team has days when the 03 tigers hand them their ass. it happens it is baseball. elsucko pitchers throw 1 hitters. it happens

the brewers are very good - they SHOULD win the central pretty easy. and as for the mets well i sure don't see them 42-0 neither

and harvey - happy birthday, a little late, sorry. and happy birthday to mrs harvey too

Kiko Sakata Posted: December 24, 2006 at 06:40 PM (#2268219)

This was mentioned in another thread, so I'll repeat my comment from there. I really like this deal for the Brewers. I think they're easily the favorites in the NL Central right now, and I can't see any of the other 5 teams catching up the rest of the offseason.


I called it. See, link. SEE THIS LINK. SEE THE LINK WHERE I WAS RIGHT BEFORE ANYONE ELSE!!!!!!!!!!

www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/mlb_brewers_melvin_shares_offseason_plans_with_fans/

14. Smitty* Posted: October 21, 2005 at 12:23 PM (#1696451)

Harv,

I'm a Cards fan, and the Brew Crew scare me going forward. I think in 2007 they make a serious run at the division title.

You were right before everybody but the guy who hates pants.

Oh, and don't you hate pants?

And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?

A Pittsburgh writer is calling the Brewers rotation "thin"? Seriously? With 3/5ths of the Pirates rotation sporting an ERA over 5?

That strikes me more as denial than anything else. The Pirates offense has two potential impact bats in Bay and LaRoche, and LaRoche isn't a sure thing. The defense is mediocre. And the starting pitching is more young than good.

I do agree that calling them "overrated," if that actually happened, is dumb, though. To say that they weren't as good as they appeared to be when they were 25-10 was not revelatory of anything. It's going to be fun. Stay warm!

My guess is they are a 85- to 90- win team, which if they overperform a bit could make them a 95-win team, a.k.a. NL Central champs unless the Cubbies get real hot, in which case they would still probably be the wild card. Go Milwaukee!

The loser of the Mets/Braves race and the runner up in the Dodger/Padre/Diamondback race are going to be around 90 wins too. The NL Central looks easier than the WC for the Brewers. I recommend they win it.

Getting Braun up at some point this year (and possibly Gallardo as well) will be big for Milwaukee, and if they desperately need to fill a hole down the road they have the OF depth to make a deal.

Conventional wisdom may be boring, and it is often wrong, but the notion that anything that isn't CW is good analysis is simply silly.

CW is often wrong. Of course, it is more often right.

When did people begin to believe in the 2006 Tigers?

Ironically, just after I began to believe in them they went on a four game losing skid.

Overrated? OVERRATED??? When the h*ll did Milwaukee become RATED??!!!! Jes*s H. Chr*st. I spend time and money wading through the muck and the mire of Jeff Juden and Jeffery Hammond watching and when the moment finally arrives when my team has a square chance to win any game on its schedule all the noise around the team is that it s*cks.

It's strange how certain media types will jump all over a team that finally reaches succcess after years of mediocrity. I don't get backlashes like this against innocuous teams with fantastic fan bases that simply finally get a chance to enjoy some success. I've been a die hard Warriors fan for as long as I can remember, then all of a sudden we finally make the playoffs and Charles Barkley and some other types want to down us. It's amazing that some won't allow even low expectations to be met with satisfaction.