Pelfrey, Perez and Maine seem comparable to the free agents Jason Marquis, Jon Garland, Joel Pineiro and John Smoltz at this stage of their careers.

I guess they're "comparable," in that Pelfrey and Perez are likely to be bottom-of-the-rotation starters compared to mid-rotation starters like Marquis, Garland and Pineiro (who themselves are very durable compared to John Maine).

They felt the pitchers they had were comparable to those they could have signed, aside from John Lackey, who always seemed destined for Boston.

There are two possibilities. One is that Omar Minaya truly believes this -- that his rotation really didn't need another relatively solid, durable starter, either because such a guy would be better in quality than what he has on hand, or because he just needs another pitcher due to the unreliability of Maine (surgery), Perez (head case), and Pelfrey (still not established at a consistent level). Or both. If he really believes that, heaven help us. For the Mets to have had any realistic (albeit outside) chance at contention in 2010, they needed another starter with more than a puncher's chance to be strong.

The other possibility is that the whole explanation for why they didn't pursue one of the available mid-level starters is a smokescreen. Minaya knows very well the hand he has is a loser, but either (a) there just wasn't money to add another guy, or (b) he simply believes they aren't a genuine contender in 2010, and wouldn't have been with another starter, either, so he wasn't going to throw good money after bad on a guy who wasn't going to make a real difference.

The latter explanation is one he can't actually admit out loud, but it makes some sense. Why spend $8M on a one-year deal, or $14-$16M on a two-year deal, for a pitcher whose major contribution is going to be to a .500 team anyway? Keep your powder dry for 2011, and then add a Marquis or Garland-type pitcher. A two-year deal for a pitcher like that THEN -- when the team is hopefully more ready to contend -- is more apt to cover two strong years, and be more worth it.

Sadly, I strongly doubt the rational explanation is the one. The truth is that Omar Minaya probably really doesn't agree that adding a durable, solid starter would have helped the 2010 Mets. More's the pity.

I guess they're "comparable," in that Pelfrey and Perez are likely to be bottom-of-the-rotation starters compared to mid-rotation starters like Marquis, Garland and Pineiro (who themselves are very durable compared to John Maine).

The issue wasn't that the FAs were so much better (they were probably similar quality, but more reliable that Pelfrey and Maine). The issue was the Mets didn't have enough SP depth. They needed to add some more average SPs to avoid ending up in Lima-time. I guess it's Livan-time these days.

Sadly, I strongly doubt the rational explanation is the one. The truth is that Omar Minaya probably really doesn't agree that adding a durable, solid starter would have helped the 2010 Mets. More's the pity.

Another possibility is that Omar recognized the need for another reliable starter but is simply not calling those kinds of shots at this point.

The issue wasn't that the FAs were so much better (they were probably similar quality, but more reliable that Pelfrey and Maine). The issue was the Mets didn't have enough SP depth. They needed to add some more average SPs to avoid ending up in Lima-time. I guess it's Livan-time these days.

I agree in that adding an average (or in Sam's words, "durable" and "solid") starting pitcher would have hedged the Mets' bets, making them much less reliant on all three of Pelfrey/Perez/Maine working out. I do think Marquis/Pineiro/Garland are likely to be of higher "quality" than Pelfrey (and Perez) in 2010, though.

Another possibility is that Omar recognized the need for another reliable starter but is simply not calling those kinds of shots at this point.

This is what the winter's stories seemed to indicate. Another, possibly even more depressing possibility, is that he did want another starter, but his targets were so far down the checklist that he didn't get to them before they were all off the market.

The truth is probably a mixture of all of these things: Omar wanted another starter, but he didn't want one that bad, which made it a low priority, and didn't quite have the money budgeted, which all made it very difficult to sign one because of the Mets' famously inefficient front office structure.

It was a weird offseason. I am surprised that the Mets didn't spend the money that they had slotted for Molina. My guess is that the Mets can add some salary and will do so during the season if they stay close.

Personally, I don't buy the checklist thing.

The Nationals picked up Coste off waivers.

I'm not optimistic about the starting rotation after Pelfrey, but I am impressed with the depth the Mets have accumulated.

I believe it's likely to be

LHP Johan Santana
RHP Mike Pelfrey
LHP Oliver Perez
RHP John Maine
LHP Jon Niese

RHP Francisco Rodriguez
LHP Pedro Feliciano
RHP Ryota Igarashi
RHP Fernando Nieve
LHP Hisanori Takahashi
RHP Jenrry Mejia
RHP Nelson Figueroa

After Niese, who is apparently going to be the fifth starter (wise choice, imo), the Mets have Figueroa, Nieve, Takahashi, and Mejia. The last four are starters, and all of them are capable of pitching well as starters. Pat Misch was also good in the role of spot starter last year. I hope to hell that they take the Earl Weaver approach with Mejia. If he can pitch in the majors he'll be at least as valuable in long relief as he will throwing 60-70 innings as a setup man, and it builds his arm strength towards becoming the starter we hope he'll be. It's definitely odd that the Mets have a very troubled rotation while their 6th through 10th starters, if they were the starting rotation for an expansion team, quite probably wouldn't be the worst rotation in the league.

They needed to add some more average SPs to avoid ending up in Lima-time. I guess it's Livan-time these days.

I agree absolutely on the need to add some average starters, but Livan was certainly tolerable for a fifth starter, better than the average for the slot, and each of the four starters in the pen are capable of pitching better than Livan. I don't think there will be many blowouts (I'd bet the Mets do better than average in avoiding them), but with an offense that screeches to a halt around the fifth spot the Mets are going to lose a hell of a lot of games 4-3 and 5-4.

The good news, from 2009:

Nieve 7 starts 3.21
Figueroa 10 starts 4.09
Niese 5 starts 4.21
Misch 7 starts 4.69
L Hernandez 23 starts 5.47
Parnell 8 starts 7.93

#6 and worse starters: 60 starts, 5.11 era. If you take out Parnell they pitched slightly better than the nominal one through five starters.

The Mets still have all of these guys except Livan, they added Takahashi, and I hope they have the sense to keep Parnell out of the rotation.

Very strange that with $40m to spend Omar/the Wilpons didn't see the need for a starter (two actually, but I may be in a very small minority with that). I also think serious consideration should have been given to nontendering Maine. It's impossible to have a useful opinion without seeing him pitch close up, but at $3.3m he's no longer cheap, and he hasn't been someone you really want in the rotation since the 2007 All-Star break

As of today:

Santana 0-2 6.75 4gs 14.2ip 26h 4hr 3bb 19k
Pelfrey 0-2 7.36 4gs 14.2ip 22h 5hr 2bb 7k
Perez 0-0 5.87 4gs 15.1ip 18h 2hr 8bb 7k
Maine 1-2 7.94 4gs 11.1ip 12h 3hr 6bb bk
Niese 1-0 5.65 5gs 14.1ip 18h 0hr 7bb 12k

I'm damned glad it's still spring.

Personally, I don't buy the checklist thing.

The Wilpons have actually defended the approach, like it, say they've always worked that way, and will continue to do so.

The Nationals picked up Coste off waivers.

That's too bad. I thought Coste was a smart pickup, a good fit, and a good guy. I wish him luck.

I'm surprised so many of you see Pelfrey as a bottom of the rotation guy. His FIP was something like 3.96 in 2008 and 4.39 in 2009. His xFIP was around 4.39 both years. I think he's a pretty solid three and will put up an ERA under 4.50 despite Castillo's best efforts.