On the twelfth day of losses, my JoPo sent to me….
Numerous people have emailed to ask if the Royals can turn this thing around this year. In some ways, yes, I think they can—depending on what you mean by “turn things around.”
I honestly don’t think they are anything close to this bad. I might not go with the SI-Fangraphs-WAR Power Rankings which kind of overshot the target and had them ranked seventh in baseball. But I do agree somewhat with their premise that this team has had a bad run of luck and a a drought of clutch hitting that doesn’t figure to last (five of their 12 losses are by one run). Also, the season is so young that, really, it’s absurd to make too much out of anything. Derek Jeter’s hitting .400. Albert Pujols is on pace to hit zero home runs. Let’s wait it out a bit.
That said, the record of teams that have lost 12 in a row is not perplexing. Good teams do not lose 12 games in a row. It’s that simple. The best team to lose 12 in a row since the strike was the 2004 Baltimore Orioles who ended up winning 78 games. Of course, 78 wins for this Royals team would probably set off a parade in the Plaza. I would say that if the Royals rebounded from this to win anything above 73 games, it would have to be viewed as a real positive….
Twelve game losing streaks since 1995 (with final record):
2012: Kansas City
2011: Seattle (67-95)
2010: Pittsburgh (57-105)
2009: Baltimore (64-98)
2008: Seattle (61-101), Kansas City (75-87), Washington (59-102)
2007: None
2006: Kansas City (62-100), Pittsburgh (67-95)
2005: Kansas City (56-106)
2004: Milwaukee (67-94), Arizona (51-111), Baltimore (78-84), Tampa Bay (70-91)
2003: None
2002: Tampa Bay (55-106), New York Mets (75-86), Baltimore (67-95)
2001: None
2000: None
1999: None
1998: None
1997: Chicago Cubs (68-94), Kansas City (67-94)
1996: Detroit (53-109)
1995: None
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1. TerpNats Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4115794)1. 11
2. 10
3. 9
3t. 9
5. 8
5t. 8
Good teams do not have 6 losing streaks of at least 8 games. It's that simple.
I think Bill James had this in one of his Abstracts - division winners basically never lost more than five consecutive games.
The 1983 Orioles, who won 98 regular-season games and the World Series, had two 7-game losing streaks during the season (which isn't to disagree with you, really: the rarity of the feat is precisely why I remember it).
And his chemistry skills have seemingly eroded overnight!
And he's doing slightly better than Gordon.
That Francoeur gets such a benefit of the doubt around here. Why must we overrate him so?
I think Bill James had this in one of his Abstracts - division winners basically never lost more than five consecutive games.
As long as we rephrase that as "teams that won a lot tended not to have long losing streaks" I'm fine -- but then that's nearly a tautology.
Winning a division of course doesn't make you a good team -- they could be an average or above-average team that got lucky. If you wanted to establish that good teams don't have long losing streaks (almost certainly true on average), you'd be better off using projections than looking backwards. And even using projections, you have to make some sort of adjustment for injuries, etc.
this was the first thing i thought about when i saw this thread. in my memory, it was a 20-game losing streak where the other team scored like a dozen runs a game. just awful. but then ... boo-ya!
Standard Francoeur magic. One week into the season and he was hitting 360. By the Rules of Francoeur, that's enough to give him a free ride through at least June.
Lincecum: 18.2 IP, 17 ER
Zito: 21 IP, 4 ER
Not only did they lose that many, they in fact lost several games from earlier in the season retroactively, and then pre-emptively lost many of the games from this season as well.
Six things about Chicken Wolf that I did not know. (Considering I'd never heard of him until today...).
1. He's RF/SS/1B/C/3B/LF/2B/CF/P Chicken Wolf.
2. His full name was William Van Winkle Wolf. You'd think his nickname would be "Rip".
3. In his 39 games at catcher, he had 25 errors and 58 passed balls.
4. His managerial record was 14-51, a .215 winning percentage.
5. He set American Association career records for games played (1,195), total bases (1,921), hits (1,438), doubles (214), and triples (109).
6. After his baseball career was over, he joined the Louisville Fire Department. In 1899 he suffered a serious head injury when after a collision between his fire engine and a pushcart, he was dragged by the horses across the cobblestones. He was declared "mentally unbalanced" as a result of his injuries, and spent some time in an insane asylum. He died in 1903.
The 2008 Rays had a 7 game losing streak leading up to the All-Star break in 2008 but went on to win 97 games and the division. And of course the 2010 Rays won 96 games and the division while getting no-hit like 9 times.
Edit: Plus in 2010 they had a five game losing streak and at a completely different point in the season lost six of seven.
7. He once got a home run because a dog attacked the fielder.
"William Van Winkle Wolf was born on May 12, 1862 in Louisville, Kentucky. To his family he was "Willie." As a teenager a friend dubbed him "Chicken," and later he was known as "Jimmy" to baseball fans in Louisville. "Willie" was a common diminutive of William in the German-American home of the Wolfs. "Chicken" was allegedly given to him by his boyhood friend and major league teammate, Pete Browning. The story goes that when Wolf and Browning were teenagers they were both members of the then semi-pro Louisville Eclipse team. Their manager instructed the team to eat lightly before a certain game, but Wolf surrendered to his appetite and stuffed himself on stewed chicken. He then played poorly in the game, committing several errors. Browning made a connection between the chicken and the lackluster play and hung the nickname "Chicken" on him. The name caught on with his teammates and the local press. How Wolf felt about the name has gone unrecorded..."
I see chicken in the clubhouse has brought more than one team low.
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