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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Posnanski: Dirty Dozen

On the twelfth day of losses, my JoPo sent to me….

Numerous people have emailed to ask if the Royals can turn this thing around this year. In some ways, yes, I think they can—depending on what you mean by “turn things around.”

I honestly don’t think they are anything close to this bad. I might not go with the SI-Fangraphs-WAR Power Rankings which kind of overshot the target and had them ranked seventh in baseball. But I do agree somewhat with their premise that this team has had a bad run of luck and a a drought of clutch hitting that doesn’t figure to last (five of their 12 losses are by one run). Also, the season is so young that, really, it’s absurd to make too much out of anything. Derek Jeter’s hitting .400. Albert Pujols is on pace to hit zero home runs. Let’s wait it out a bit.

That said, the record of teams that have lost 12 in a row is not perplexing. Good teams do not lose 12 games in a row. It’s that simple. The best team to lose 12 in a row since the strike was the 2004 Baltimore Orioles who ended up winning 78 games. Of course, 78 wins for this Royals team would probably set off a parade in the Plaza. I would say that if the Royals rebounded from this to win anything above 73 games, it would have to be viewed as a real positive….

Twelve game losing streaks since 1995 (with final record):

2012: Kansas City
2011: Seattle (67-95)
2010: Pittsburgh (57-105)
2009: Baltimore (64-98)
2008: Seattle (61-101), Kansas City (75-87), Washington (59-102)
2007: None
2006: Kansas City (62-100), Pittsburgh (67-95)
2005: Kansas City (56-106)
2004: Milwaukee (67-94), Arizona (51-111), Baltimore (78-84), Tampa Bay (70-91)
2003: None
2002: Tampa Bay (55-106), New York Mets (75-86), Baltimore (67-95)
2001: None
2000: None
1999: None
1998: None
1997: Chicago Cubs (68-94), Kansas City (67-94)
1996: Detroit (53-109)
1995: None

RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 25, 2012 at 10:52 AM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: losing streak, posnanski, royals

Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. TerpNats Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4115794)
Hard to fathom that as historically bad as the 2003 Tigers were, they never lost 12 straight.
   2. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4115800)
Conversely, I think the Brewers won 11 in a row in '03 or so while losing 95+ games.
   3. Brian C Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4115804)
Top 5 losing streaks, 2003 Tigers:

1. 11
2. 10
3. 9
3t. 9
5. 8
5t. 8

Good teams do not have 6 losing streaks of at least 8 games. It's that simple.
   4. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4115819)
Really good teams rarely lose even 6 in a row.
I think Bill James had this in one of his Abstracts - division winners basically never lost more than five consecutive games.
   5. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4115831)
[4]And then the '06 Cardinals (who were just a terrible division winner) lost 8 in a row twice.
   6. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 25, 2012 at 02:02 PM (#4115838)
Really good teams rarely lose even 6 in a row.


The 1983 Orioles, who won 98 regular-season games and the World Series, had two 7-game losing streaks during the season (which isn't to disagree with you, really: the rarity of the feat is precisely why I remember it).
   7. TomH Posted: April 25, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4115842)
the '77 Red Sox, who went 97-64, had (IIRC) TWO 10-game losing streaks. The team had oodles of power and one great reliever. When the power went out, the losses ensued.
   8. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 25, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4115882)
Twelve game losing streaks since 1995 (with final record):
So, Kansas City has done it 5 times. Baltimore 3 times. Pittsburgh, Tampa, and Seattle twice.
   9. Zach Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4115933)
Man, the Royals don't even let you pretend, do they? I was actually kind of enthusiastic about this year until Sal Perez got hurt. Lots of young talent and likeable players. But long losing streaks are just punishing. There's nothing you can do but tune out a little and wait for the worst to pass.
   10. Kurt Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4115938)
Nobody seems to have noticed, but Francouer has been a complete bag of crap so far.
   11. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 25, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4115949)

Nobody seems to have noticed, but Francouer has been a complete bag of crap so far.


And his chemistry skills have seemingly eroded overnight!
   12. DA Baracus is gritty and hits with RISP Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4115976)
Nobody seems to have noticed, but Francouer has been a complete bag of crap so far.


And he's doing slightly better than Gordon.
   13. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4115978)
Nobody seems to have noticed, but Francouer has been a complete bag of crap so far.

That Francoeur gets such a benefit of the doubt around here. Why must we overrate him so?
   14. Walt Davis Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4115986)
Really good teams rarely lose even 6 in a row.
I think Bill James had this in one of his Abstracts - division winners basically never lost more than five consecutive games.


As long as we rephrase that as "teams that won a lot tended not to have long losing streaks" I'm fine -- but then that's nearly a tautology.

Winning a division of course doesn't make you a good team -- they could be an average or above-average team that got lucky. If you wanted to establish that good teams don't have long losing streaks (almost certainly true on average), you'd be better off using projections than looking backwards. And even using projections, you have to make some sort of adjustment for injuries, etc.

   15. Kurt Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4115988)
Doesn't it seem like every April - other than this one - is National Francouer month?
   16. phredbird Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4116004)
[4]And then the '06 Cardinals (who were just a terrible division winner) lost 8 in a row twice.


this was the first thing i thought about when i saw this thread. in my memory, it was a 20-game losing streak where the other team scored like a dozen runs a game. just awful. but then ... boo-ya!
   17. Walt Davis Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4116008)
Nobody seems to have noticed, but Francouer has been a complete bag of crap so far.

Standard Francoeur magic. One week into the season and he was hitting 360. By the Rules of Francoeur, that's enough to give him a free ride through at least June.
   18. flournoy Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4116009)
I couldn't believe that the 2006 Braves didn't lose at least 12 in a row in June, but they maxed out at a 10 game losing streak as part of a 2-18 stretch.
   19. Walt Davis Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4116010)
Also in small sample head-scratchers:

Lincecum: 18.2 IP, 17 ER
Zito: 21 IP, 4 ER
   20. flournoy Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4116013)
I would like to note that Francoeur's ELO rating on BB-Ref currently places him right behind some ancient guy named Chicken Wolf.
   21. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4116015)
These are winning streaks rather than losing streaks, but the 1916 Giants had both a 26 game winning streak and a 17 game winning streak - and finished fourth.
   22. buddaley Posted: April 25, 2012 at 04:49 PM (#4116042)
How much of a difference does it make that the 2009 Rays had an 11 game losing streak? They still won 84 games that season. That streak did come in September and dropped them out of contention for the division crown, but that was not a bad team.
   23. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 25, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4116139)
Didn't the 2011 Red Sox set the record by losing 58 games in September?
   24. Tuque Posted: April 25, 2012 at 06:49 PM (#4116202)
Didn't the 2011 Red Sox set the record by losing 58 games in September?

Not only did they lose that many, they in fact lost several games from earlier in the season retroactively, and then pre-emptively lost many of the games from this season as well.
   25. Tippecanoe Posted: April 25, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4116204)
The way I remember it they each gained 58 pounds.
   26. Lassus Posted: April 25, 2012 at 07:41 PM (#4116242)
#20 made me laugh for about 10 minutes.
   27. vortex of dissipation Posted: April 25, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4116270)
I would like to note that Francoeur's ELO rating on BB-Ref currently places him right behind some ancient guy named Chicken Wolf.


Six things about Chicken Wolf that I did not know. (Considering I'd never heard of him until today...).

1. He's RF/SS/1B/C/3B/LF/2B/CF/P Chicken Wolf.

2. His full name was William Van Winkle Wolf. You'd think his nickname would be "Rip".

3. In his 39 games at catcher, he had 25 errors and 58 passed balls.

4. His managerial record was 14-51, a .215 winning percentage.

5. He set American Association career records for games played (1,195), total bases (1,921), hits (1,438), doubles (214), and triples (109).

6. After his baseball career was over, he joined the Louisville Fire Department. In 1899 he suffered a serious head injury when after a collision between his fire engine and a pushcart, he was dragged by the horses across the cobblestones. He was declared "mentally unbalanced" as a result of his injuries, and spent some time in an insane asylum. He died in 1903.
   28. McCoy Posted: April 25, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4116271)
If you're not paying attention you'll think that Frenchy's line is .303/.579 with 59 TB and that is a believable line for Frenchy but then if you look closer you'll discover that it is his SLG, OPS, and OPS+.
   29. Ray (RDP) Posted: April 25, 2012 at 09:51 PM (#4116366)
I think Alex Gordon will be fine. I'm most disappointed with Jonathan Sanchez.
   30. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: April 25, 2012 at 09:59 PM (#4116376)
Chicken Wolf and Pete Browning were probably the two best players for the Louisville Colonels who did not go on to play for the Pirates after the Colonels folded.
   31. Jim Wisinski Posted: April 25, 2012 at 11:16 PM (#4116471)
How much of a difference does it make that the 2009 Rays had an 11 game losing streak? They still won 84 games that season. That streak did come in September and dropped them out of contention for the division crown, but that was not a bad team.


The 2008 Rays had a 7 game losing streak leading up to the All-Star break in 2008 but went on to win 97 games and the division. And of course the 2010 Rays won 96 games and the division while getting no-hit like 9 times.

Edit: Plus in 2010 they had a five game losing streak and at a completely different point in the season lost six of seven.
   32. flournoy Posted: April 25, 2012 at 11:37 PM (#4116514)
I don't really know too much about 19th century baseball, but I do know that Chicken Wolf is now my favorite 19th century player. We should celebrate his would-be-150th birthday next month!
   33. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: April 25, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4116553)
I cannot believe the Louisville team wasn't named the Sluggers. Shame on you, old timey team!
   34. Lassus Posted: April 26, 2012 at 12:08 AM (#4116565)
More about Chicken Wolf:

7. He once got a home run because a dog attacked the fielder.
   35. toratoratora Posted: April 26, 2012 at 12:21 AM (#4116574)
From the SABR bio page (And I love 1890's baseball. Anything before Ruth fascinates me. The game was so different, the players were eccentric to say the least, nicknames abound, skullduggery and chicanery was everywhere, leagues were coming and going, the rules were in flux,parks were thrown up and burned to the ground regularly, players jumped teams/ leagues/coasts,the owners acted like small scale robber barons, the players formed unions and created their own leagues, anything and everything seemed to be fair game at one time or another-it all made for a wild wild ride)

"William Van Winkle Wolf was born on May 12, 1862 in Louisville, Kentucky. To his family he was "Willie." As a teenager a friend dubbed him "Chicken," and later he was known as "Jimmy" to baseball fans in Louisville. "Willie" was a common diminutive of William in the German-American home of the Wolfs. "Chicken" was allegedly given to him by his boyhood friend and major league teammate, Pete Browning. The story goes that when Wolf and Browning were teenagers they were both members of the then semi-pro Louisville Eclipse team. Their manager instructed the team to eat lightly before a certain game, but Wolf surrendered to his appetite and stuffed himself on stewed chicken. He then played poorly in the game, committing several errors. Browning made a connection between the chicken and the lackluster play and hung the nickname "Chicken" on him. The name caught on with his teammates and the local press. How Wolf felt about the name has gone unrecorded..."
   36. Slivers of Maranville (SdeB) Posted: April 26, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4116599)
Their manager instructed the team to eat lightly before a certain game, but Wolf surrendered to his appetite and stuffed himself on stewed chicken. He then played poorly in the game, committing several errors.


I see chicken in the clubhouse has brought more than one team low.
   37. Zach Posted: April 26, 2012 at 05:36 AM (#4116624)
The Chickenwolf hijack reminds me why I love this site.

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