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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Posnanski: Holding Court with the Hit King

And that’s not just somebody off Billboard Türkiye (though it could be)...but Pete Rose!

I decide to bend the “Rules of Interviewing Pete” and try to get him back on the subject of Jeter. I do this merely by saying, “Jeter.”

“I don’t think he will break the record,” Rose says. “First of all, I don’t think he wants to leave the Yankees. And the Yankees, they’re about winning. Jeter had a great year this year, but he’s what? Thirty-eight years old? And he’s a shortstop? How many 40-year-old shortstops you see walking around? Not too many, right? And they can’t put him at third because A-Rod’s there. They can’t put him at second ‘cause Cano’s there. He don’t help them in left field—he’s got to be in the center of things, you know what I mean? What are they going to do? Put him at first base?

“He still needs 950 hits, right? He had a great year this year, but you think he can do that again? At 39? A shortstop? Let’s say he does it again. Let’s say he gets 200 more hits next year. And let’s say he gets 200 more hits when he’s 40, though I don’t think he can. OK, can he get 200 more hits when he’s 41? You think he can?”

...“I don’t think he can get 200 more hits at 41, but let’s say he does. OK, now he’s 42. He’s gonna get 200 more hits then? At 42? Let me tell you, I’ve been there, the body locks up. Jeter’s a great hitter. I’d say he hits like I did. But he’s gonna get 200 hits when he’s 42? I don’t think he will. And even if he does all that, he’s STILL 150 hits short.”

One beat of silence. Two beats of silence.

“I’d say Jeter will probably end up in batting average about where I was. We’re about the same—me, Derek, Hank, Willie. We were all hitting about .311 or .312 or .313 when we got into our late 30s, maybe Willie was a little lower, and we all ended up around .303 or .305. Jeter will probably end up where I did, right around there. So if his average is around the same as mine, he has to get about as many at-bats as I did. I got 14,053 at-bats. What’s he got? Ten thousand? Eleven thousand? He’s a great hitter. How’s he going to get 3,500 more at-bats? I think time’s running out.”

Repoz Posted: October 10, 2012 at 05:47 AM | 104 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Nasty Nate Posted: October 11, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4263748)
It's the result of the person reacting to what he just saw - that you hit when you weren't supposed to and had you not done that the dealer would have busted and now everyone loses. But no similar cataloging is done when the "idiot" player takes the card that would have made 20 for the dealer. It's selective memory/bias.

That's what I thought, but I wasn't sure if I was forgetting some aspect of the game.
   102. zonk Posted: October 11, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4263785)
The thing about not being at a table with people making bad decisions at blackjack is just a superstition thing, right? I wouldn't think that it would hurt/help you over the long run.

I don't think it does hurt you. The constant b!tching about this at the tables is silly. It's the result of the person reacting to what he just saw - that you hit when you weren't supposed to and had you not done that the dealer would have busted and now everyone loses. But no similar cataloging is done when the "idiot" player takes the card that would have made 20 for the dealer. It's selective memory/bias.

By the math, this is apparently correct -- if you're not counting cards and just playing with the 'right' blind rules, whether someone does or does not take a card when they shouldn't or should has no impact on the odds for you individually.

Like I said, I saw the proofs... I just still don't buy them ;-)

FWIW, playing at single deck tables -- where counting is expected and the obvious way to play -- drives me bonkers. There are counting processes where you don't actually 'remember' every card played, but instead count groupings -- but they always just make me play worse. I'm sure, by design - as with all tables - the hands just move too fast.
   103. Ron J2 Posted: October 11, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4264157)
#102 Doesn't take much for the house to get the edge back against a counter. The edge a counter has over the house is small enough (in the current multiple deck, frequent shuffle setup. Single deck is a different story) that a mistake an hour pretty much gives it all back. And it takes a lot of practice to play at the right tempo without making mistakes
   104. Don Malcolm Posted: October 11, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4264362)
Wonderful that this thread has morphed over into the nuances of gambling.

Didn't Tango suggest that we count all of the hits in the post-season as part of a player's career total? If that's the case, then Rose has 4342, Jeter 3501 (and counting).
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