There should be a hotline for former star athletes to call. They would use it just for emergencies, just for those moments when they have this interesting thought but are not sure if they should make that thought public. For instance, before doing an interview like this with Newsday, Goose Gossage might call the hotline.
Goose: So, I’m thinking about talking again about how you can’t compare Mariano Rivera to relievers of our time.
Hotline: Don’t do it.
Goose: No, this time I’m going to talk about how great Mariano Rivera is, you know, how he’s a great guy. I mean, I’ll say it over and over again.
Hotline: Don’t do it.
Goose: “No, it’s OK, I’ll keep saying that Mariano Rivera is great, really great, but you can’t say he’s the greatest because he’s used in a different role than guys from our time, you know, like me. But he’s really, really great and all, it’s just that just guys from our time, you know, like me, would have been just as great if we were used the Mariano way. I guess what I’m trying to say is that while he’s super great, he might not be any better than guys from our time, you know, like me, if Rivera had been used the way we pitch. But he’s great.”
Hotline: “Don’t do it.”
There is no such hotline, sadly… The reason I think it was unfortunate is, well, there are actually two reasons, one obvious, the other perhaps less so.
The obvious reason is that it diminishes Goose Gossage to talk this way. Goose Gossage was a great pitcher. A truly great pitcher. Gossage is in the Hall of Fame, he’s widely remembered, he does not need to go around telling people how great he was or how he wasn’t used the way pitchers today are used. I think it cheapens him to do so, especially when he uses the beloved Mariano Rivera for effect. Rivera has been gracious and classy and respectful. Gossage shouldn’t use him as a prop… If Gossage was using the platform to fight for the Hall of Fame causes of other great relievers of his day—Dan Quisenberry, John Hiller, Sparky Lyle, Lee Smith, etc.—that would be one thing. But you don’t get the sense from Goose’s proclamations that he’s all that interested in new people joining him in the Hall. This kind of talk about Rivera is self-serving and should be beneath him.
But the second reason, the less obvious one, is why I wish Gossage would quiet down: When Gossage talks about Rivera like this, it’s only human nature to start making some comparisons. And Gossage won’t look good in the comparisons…
For Rivera to match Gossage in the basic numbers, he would have had to pitch 278 more innings—all those multiple innings that Gossage pitched—and he would have to allow 201 more (a tidy 6.51 ERA). He would have had to walk 350 or so batters in those innings, while allowing 42 home runs. And he would have had to do all that in a much lower scoring run environment. I’m guessing here, of course, but I think he could have managed it.
And as far as the ease of pitching one inning—Gossage has called it easy in the past—the Goose pitched exactly one inning 249 times in his career. His ERA in those outings: 3.75…
Gossage’s greatness stands the test of time. He was part of the bridge that took us from the 1950s and 1960s, when relievers were used sporadically and like pawns on a chess board, to now, when closers are celebrated and paid like kings. He was of his time, and that’s a good thing. If he had been used like a modern closer, sure, he probably would have more saves, but he might not be in the Hall of Fame. He might have been like Jeff Reardon or Billy Wagner or John Wetteland—great pitchers who lit up the sky and then burned out in their mid-to-late 30s.
You know, if you just want to talk saves, Gossage does suffer. He blew 112 of the 432 save opportunities he had. Rivera has blown only 73 of the 681 chances he’s had. It’s not an entirely fair comparison, Gossage’s save opportunities were different from Rivera’s. But it’s a comparison we make because Gossage can’t just say “Mariano Rivera is a great and timeless relief pitcher” and leave it at that.
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1. willcarrolldoesnotsuk Posted: March 11, 2013 at 06:14 PM (#4386569)We'll there is probably a large part of selection bias going on here. A number of those starts were probably limited to 1 inning, because Gossage was stinking up the joint, and the manager thinking he needed to get somebody else in there.
I'll let somebody else do the grunt work on that. After coming dangerously close to defending Gossage here, I need to go take a 2 hour shower.
And/or they were very late in his very long career, when he was hanging on and hanging on as just another guy, long after he had ceased to be the Goose Gossage that's relevant to any such analysis.
Maybe Wilhelm's knuckleball? I sure wasn't around to see it, but it must have been excellent.
The best strikeout pitch I've ever personally watched is Johnson's slider, but I'm not sure I'd say it was a better out pitch.
I heard Rico Petrocelli talking about Wilhelm on XM radio this weekend, he called it a hard (fast) knuckler. When asked about comparing it to Dickey, he said Dickey throws it much harder, but emphasized that Wilhelm was much faster than Wakefield or Wilbur Wood.
Not the most apt comparison by Posnanski. Shouldn't it be some number of 2 and 3 inning appearances Rivera would have not pitch, not just total innings?
I've been trying to search for a batters survey I saw circa 2000 or 2001 but I can't seem to find it now. The intriguing thing is I still remember the highlights of the results:
MLB batters were asked what was the single nastiest pitch to hit - the one that really made you look stupid - like I said, this was around 2000 or 2001 - can't remember if it was ESPN or SI or whomever that ran the survey, but here were the leaders:
1)Single nastiest pitch #1 (2 tied for the most votes from batters) - Mariano Rivera's cutter
1A) Single nastiest pitch #1 also went to Trevor Hoffman's changeup
Interesting that it was two closers who tied for the single nastiest pitch to hit
The pitcher who actually received the most votes overall didn't win for single nastiest pitch - speaking of nasty, Randy Johnson's "Mr. Nasty" (as he referred to his slider) received a lot of votes, as did his fastball. Neither pitch was the individual leader but he just missed leading with both pitches and therefore received the most total votes of any pitcher.
But the really eye-opening number was "3" - as in Pedro Martinez had 3 different pitches receive some votes, although he didn't receive the most total votes overall. Pedro's fastball, slider and changeup all received some votes. When you're a batter and a pitcher has 3 different pitches that can totally befuddle you, you just have no chance at all, which pretty much describes how dominant Pedro was at the time.
If anyone can find a link to this survey it would be appreciated, or if there has been a survey done more recently I would be curious to see the results.
I always thought it was called "Mr. Snappy" </nitpick>
steve carlton slider
bruce sutter's pitch
mario soto's changeup
camilo pascual's curveball
so true, with several examples here.
Posnanski seems to be following the Eddie Mathews/Ernie Banks route of sportswriting. Great early in his career and then...
Judging by the results? No.
steve carlton slider
bruce sutter's pitch
mario soto's changeup
camilo pascual's curveballss
All of those pitches were just as devastating as Rivera's cutter, on the days and the years that those pitchers could control them. And to those you can add plenty of other pitches by plenty of other pitchers. The problem is that none of those pitchers were even close to being as consistent as Mo was over the course of their careers. Probably the best example of an impossible pitch in a long career would be Nolan Ryan's heater, but since his control over that pitch came and went with practically each and every game, on many days batters had the option of simply waiting for a walk. They could almost never do that with Mo.
You can rightly say there are many good reasons for Rivera's dominance, mainly the fact that he usually only had to go through the lineup once, but that's another story. And anyway, it's not as if most batters didn't know exactly what they were going to be getting the next time they faced him.
So, you're saying he was good at first...?
Blown saves also is a weak comparison because Rivera NEVER comes into games with the tying run on base. Well, he did in a very memorable postseason game and got charged with a technical 'blown save' that is very misleading in the closer stat-protective modern era, as his supporters rightly point out. Well, 1970s managers weren't as obsessed with protecting SV pcts as they were, um, winning games. Torre grasped this well in that postseason game, but bubble-wrapped Mariano in regular seasons (not necessarily bad, but it hurts comparisons to other eras).
I'd still have Rivera's cutter over all those. It was just flat out unhittable for a long period of time.
But other good ones would be Glavine's cutter, Mike Scott's splitter, Blyleven's curve, and Randy Johnson's slider.
i was thinking only in terms of a pitch that everyone in the ballpark knew was coming and the batter still did not do anything positive
and yet somehow i think that steve carlton's 5000 odd innings hold up pretty well against rivera's innings
given the varying interpretations this could be argued into the ground with no real answer
but peak for peak i put sutter's pitch right there with rivera
career vs career i think carlton has a claim. his slider was 'the' out pitch used in highlights for almost a decade. only guidry came close as for a contemporary
Not to knock Rivera in the slightest; as I say, he's been excellent even against the teams that have hit him best. But I've seen a somewhat toned-down version of him. And that's regular-season only, needless to say. In the postseason, the Rangers have never scored on Rivera, in 14 innings. In that respect he reminds me of Andy Pettitte, who has been completely mortal against Texas in the regular season but has kicked their butts in October. even including his loss in '10.
From 77-85, as a reliever he had a batting line against of .201/.271/.289 .559 OPS, and a sOPS+ of 59
Wake threw it about 65-68. Dickey averages 77, but sometimes throws it as hard as 80-82. I guess that puts Wilhelm around 71-74.
(Seriously though, didn't know he was reputed to doctor the ball. Is this a 'known' thing or is it just you pulling Andy's chain?)
that is the precise definition of carlton and to a lesser extent guidry's slider.
it is a known thing. whitey discusses it openly or at least used to. he became a heavy practitioner in either 60 or 62
Both those guys threw other pitches and changed location. Mo throws the same pitch, to the same basic spot, over and over again.
Are you kidding? I'd have been in much more of a frenzy if Whitey hadn't come up with that scuffer.
Now that dirty cheating Lew Burdette---that's another story!
do i have the timeframe about right?
FFY
Among other things, he used a sharpened wedding ring, or had Elston Howard cut it on his shin pads.
do i have the timeframe about right?
I believe that 1960-62 is right on the
moneywedding ring.When he was young his fastball was lively enough, but his motion made it look like the ball was coming out of his shirt. In his home uniform, it was a small white ball coming at you around ~90 MPH out of a vast field of white. It must have been a nightmare trying to pick it up visually.
Jeff Nelson's slider always looked unhittable to me, too, but I guess he couldn't always keep it in the strike zone.
yup. but i vividly recall sid's average fastball being around 87/88 mph. and everyone being amazed that batters couldn't "catch up"
he's 3rd all-time in fewest hits per 9 innings
Derick Jeter's gift basket?
This made me laugh, thanks! As a Mets fan since the 70's and even today (I am unsure why) Sid was unique...trained water buffalo, LOL!!
And I kept drafting him on my Rotis team and he'd never help me in wins but those H&BB; per 9 were quite nice!
Agree with this. Another reliever like that - Mike MacDougal. He made some hitters look ridiculous his rookie year. Just couldn't throw strikes with any regularity.
#14 ajn - U R absolutely correct - that was my senile mind misremembering what Johnson's slider was nicknamed.
#22 and here I've done it also, "remembering" Pedro's slider as getting votes when, in reality, it was his curve.
I've heard Mike Schmidt say the most difficult pitch for him to hit was Nolan Ryan's fastball.
#2 on Schmidt's list was Nolan Ryan's curve. Therein lies the problem - on the days Nolan struggled with his control (often, sadly), he was only decent. On the days he could hit the corners with the hook, however, he was just otherworldly and mesmerizing to watch. I think back in the Abstract days Bill James basically described it as follows - if Ryan issues 5 or more walks, you can get to him and beat him. If, on the other hand, he gives up only 3 walks or fewer in a game, you have no chance.
I never got to see Blyleven in his prime, but from what I read it was similar.
Fernandez did have a huge home/road split in his career: 67-40 with a 2.73 ERA at home, 47-56 with a 4.05 ERA on the road. A lot of that is Shea Stadium, but he also pitched for other teams, and was always better at home than on the road.
No surprise at all. And now that I've checked, he was indeed much more effective pitching in his home whites. A 2.73 ERA in 979 innings vs. a 4.05 in 887. His K rate was much better at home as well.
Ryan's curve was incredible to watch; just a tiny bit inferior to Blyleven's, but a very similar pitch. Huge, sharp 12 to 6 break.
Not quite at the level of Carlton's slider or Sutter's split-finger but still top-top-grade (in person from good seat witnessing required):
Fernando's screwball.
Jim Kern's straight over the top 1979 gas.
Ron Davis's between 3/4 and sidearm 1981 fastball that must have looked to a right-hander like it was coming from behind his back. (The Yankees' 1-2 bullpen punch of Gossage and Davis was ridiculous that year.)
I watched the Sid Fernandez game that had no assists: every out was a K or a pop-out.
Very much known. Bouton has some funny stuff on it in Ball Four, about how Ford could make a scuffed ball "sail, drop, break in, break out, and sing 'When Irish Eyes Are Smiling'." And when Elston Howard cut the ball on his shinguard buckle, "The buckle ball sang two arias from 'Aida'."
Surprised that no-one has mentioned Christy Mathewson's fadeaway (screwball).
Ford also wrote about it extensively in his biography - he started throwing a mudball in the early 60s, then had the wedding ring/rasp made shortly after by a jeweler he was tight with to get a more controllable break. And the shinguards thing, and he tried to throw pitches in the dirt during between-innings warmups in the hopes of getting a scuff he could use.
From 97-05 Mo had a batting line of .210/.262/.283 .545 OPS in the sillyball era. Add his post-season and the numbers go down while he closes to within ~12 innings/year of Gossage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOYME2Q4nAg
Geez. I mean talk about tipping your pitches...
Bravo, Sir!
Nobody called it anything until some copywriter put that line into his mouth for a commercial.
Impressive!
There's a good clip of Wilhelm on Youtube now, where he talks about it & throws it some. More of a sidearmer than I'd imagined, and that speed estimate looks about right.
God, this breaks my heart. Back then, the Mets were so much fun to watch.
this game. To be nitpicky, there was one outfield assist when Joe Orsulak threw out someone trying to stretch a single into a double
For someone who's accusing Poz of misusing stats... you know you can actually look up things like this, right? 28% of Rivera's career relief appearances came on 0 days' rest, to 18% for Gossage.
I didn't interpret the statement you're responding to as having said what you think it said. It's not who pitched on 0 days rest more frequently, it's who was more likely to have pitched on 0 days rest having pitched more than 1 inning the day before.
Ah, fair enough. That would either be a laborious examination of gamelogs, or a PI search... regardless, excessive nastiness retracted.
Still, it's probably worth pointing out that Rivera pitched more relief innings on no rest than Gossage, despite the fact that Gossage pitched more innings overall. The lengths of their appearances declined by similar amounts when pitching on no rest as compared to their other outings.
And he tipped every pitch he threw and they still couldn't hit it.
That's pretty impressive. I remember reading an article with Pete Rose during the mid eighties and the interviewer asked him who had the best curveball. Pete didn't hesitate, "Koufax."
Meanwhile, I wasn't going to mention it until I saw a poster above mention Matty's fadeaway, but the best pitch in baseball history has to be Walter Johnson's fastball. One pitch made that man arguably the greatest pitcher ever.
He's Mariano, but throwing complete games.
"regardless, excessive nastiness retracted."
there goes the BBTF neighborhood!
:)
Ages 26-37 IP/year:
Gossage 77 (ERA+ 148)
Rivera 74 (ERA+ 217) -- not including postseason.
the myth of the goose is ####### crazy.
The "myth" of Gossage is a spectacular peak, which is no myth at all. Then he hung around forever and was pretty good a lot and mediocre, too. Writers touting stats that are obviously disingenuous distract from real arguments, as do exaggerations like "myth of Gossage back to back 3 inning saves."
The funny part is that Mariano doesn't need parlor tricks and exaggerations - his numbers are great. Not sure why that isn't enough for his backers....
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