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Wednesday, May 16, 2007

Post-Gazette: Smizik: Complete games become obsolete

The latest from the wordsworthy Smizik.

Here are some statistics on the Pirates for the old-schoolers who rip managers for not permitting their pitchers to go a full nine innings. Keep in mind that the Pirates have not had a winning season since 1992. But look what the age of specialization has done even for this lowly team.

Since moving into PNC Park for the 2001 season, the Pirates’ record when leading after seven innings, when there is almost always a reliever in the game, is 340-37. That’s not a misprint. The Pirates, as bad as they have been, are 303 games over .500 when leading after seven innings since 2001.

When leading after eight, again with the extreme likelihood a reliever is in the game, the Pirates are 377-21. That’s a winning percentage of .947.

Repoz Posted: May 16, 2007 at 12:05 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: pirates

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   1. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: May 16, 2007 at 01:07 PM (#2365585)
Every few years the "leading after seven innings" thing is trotted out, and there's always someone who thinks it's the Dead Sea Scrolls or something.
   2. JRVJ (formerly Delta Socrates) Posted: May 16, 2007 at 01:16 PM (#2365589)
Actually, the most revealing thing of this article is how the Pirates manager was very clear on how many pitches had been thrown by his starter and how that number clearly influences his decision making.
   3. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 16, 2007 at 01:41 PM (#2365610)
It would be interesting to see "leading after seven" stats from the days of the CG.
   4. CrosbyBird Posted: May 16, 2007 at 01:53 PM (#2365617)
It seemed to me like he had good reasons, not some sort of slavish obedience to an arbitrary number.

When he took Gorzelanny out, he mentions 93 pitches thrown, but also the right-handers due up, the 4th time through the lineup, the close score, and having two runners on in the previous inning.

I don't think Tracy is a particularly great manager, but that's the sort of thinking that I'd want my manager to be making.
   5. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: May 16, 2007 at 01:55 PM (#2365619)
Back in my day, pitchers throw a hundred innings a day! Every day! With both hands! Blindfolded! Buttpnaked in twelve feet of snow! Uphill! Both ways!

Now get off my lawn!
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 16, 2007 at 01:58 PM (#2365622)
Tracy is kind of prone to leaving his starters in too long, actually. I've seen a surprising number of instances where a guy was under 100 pitches, but still pretty clearly gassed, and he didn't reach for the hook until there were already a couple of runs in.
   7. Dag Nabbit apealing [sic] his own check swing Posted: May 16, 2007 at 02:51 PM (#2365666)
It would be interesting to see "leading after seven" stats from the days of the CG.

Well, b-ref has a team inning scoring feature in its PI . .

Comparing the 1974 AL (the greatest CG league in the last half-century) vs. the 2006 AL . . .

When leading after 7 innings:
1974 AL: 725-114 (.864)
2006 AL: 882-146 (.858)

When leading after 8 innings:
1974 AL: 778-82 (.905)
2006 AL: 952-92 (.912)

There's at least one complicating factor - run environment. 1974 AL averaged 4.10 runs a game. Last year it was 4.97 runs a game.

2007 has more extremes at either end. Whereas every 1974 team blew at least 6 leads in the last two innings, the '07 Twins blew only four and the Angels dropped only 5. Meanwhile, the two teams with the worst W/L records after 7 when leading were the '07 D-Rays (41-18) and '07 Royals (48-17). The best 1974 team was the Rangers (70-6). Worst was the Angels (51-16), who were second in the league in CG. Then again, second worst in '74 was Cleveland (62-17), who had one of the fewest CG totals in the league.

The Twins (72-1) & Angels (70-2) were also better after 8 than any 1974 team. The Royals (47-12) were still the worst. The highs and lows of 1974 were the Yanks (69-3) and Cleveland (65-13).
   8. John (You Can Call Me Grandma) Murphy Posted: May 16, 2007 at 06:50 PM (#2365855)
Complete games are not obsolete!

- R. Wordsworth

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