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Thursday, November 14, 2013

Posting-system impasse between MLB, Japan puts Masahiro Tanaka’s future on hold | MLB.com: News

This needs to get settled.

The posting-fee system that has allowed Yu Darvish, Ichiro Suzuki, Daisuke Matsuzaka and others to play Major League Baseball before reaching free agency in Japan is in limbo, Rob Manfred, MLB’s chief operating officer, said on Thursday.

The impasse between Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball puts the immediate future of pitcher Masahiro Tanaka in doubt. Tanaka, who went 24-0 in the regular season this year for the Japan Series-champion Rakuten Golden Eagles, was expected to be posted this offseason and command a high fee and multiyear contract.

Without a posting agreement, the 25-year-old Tanaka would have to play two more seasons to attain the nine years of service time required to become a free agent in Japan.

Jim Furtado Posted: November 14, 2013 at 08:15 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: japanese baseball, masahiro tanaka

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   1. AROM Posted: November 14, 2013 at 09:11 PM (#4600454)
MLB is really playing hardball, especially after appointing Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, and Matt Garza to negotiate this.
   2. ptodd Posted: November 15, 2013 at 12:28 AM (#4600535)
MLB saving the Yankees from another Igawa. Anyways, Japan should decide what the requirements are for the players they release from their control. If MLB does not agree, they can just wait for players to be free agents and Japan teams can do without the posting fee.

I mean, how is the current system better for MLB than this new one. The only losers here are Japan teams, and they were forced by the players to change what for them was a very profitable system

MLB players are probably happy with the proposed plan since it forces MLB teams to pay more taxable salary to Japan players, which puts them on a more level playing field with MLB free agents. MLB teams should be happy since they will pay a lower posting fee, albeit at the cost of higher salaries which are spread out over several years. The small market teams who have been left out of the process as posting fees got too large should also be happy with a system that improves competitive balance. Only the few teams who have the money to spend on large posting fees and who are up against the tax threshold would be opposed to the change.
   3. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 15, 2013 at 03:11 AM (#4600570)
well the npb could just get screwed and have mlb taking what talent they want from japan when they want it.
   4. AROM Posted: November 15, 2013 at 09:12 AM (#4600610)
Two can play at that game. I don't think Mike Trout, if he's renewed for another year would jump to Japan for an 8 million dollar deal, as he is close enough to a big payday.

I could see a late bloomer like Carlos Ruiz was a few years ago - being 30 years old and not even arbitration eligible yet, taking a free agent deal in Japan if the 2 leagues can't respect each other's contracts. I strongly doubt that either league will go there.
   5. McCoy Posted: November 15, 2013 at 09:20 AM (#4600612)
Of the two the NPB is the one that couldn't deal with a war financially.
   6. John Northey Posted: November 15, 2013 at 12:11 PM (#4600695)
It would be entertaining if MLB and the Japanese leagues decided to go to war on that. Players in the minors or in their first 6 years in the majors would have an incentive to go to Japan or to push for a multi-year contract and teams would have the incentive to bargain in good faith on those multi-year deals. Players in Japan could jump ship at any point by just not signing multi-year deals in Japan. Once a contract is up the player can shift leagues, but not while under a contract thus ignoring the reserve clauses. All it would take is one league deciding to start raiding the other to get it going.

Odds are far, far higher though that MLB and NPB will make a deal.
   7. valuearbitrageur Posted: November 15, 2013 at 01:00 PM (#4600742)
Of the two the NPB is the one that couldn't deal with a war financially.


Japanese clubs will spend what they spend, whether on US minor leaguers or Japanese professionals. They'll get an influx of interesting names, they'll lose some well know older players. In the end they'll probably have the same fan support, fans will rapidly start rooting for their new players, especially if they help the team win.

MLB teams will get an influx of almost entirely lower tier players that they'll have to overpay to get to move. Then they'll have to start overpaying minor leaguers to get them to stay.

I really doubt a "war" is catastrophic to either league, it may just raise the cost of doing business a moderate amount. Which is why they collude to have agreements in the first place.
   8. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: November 15, 2013 at 01:06 PM (#4600743)
MLB saving the Yankees from another Igawa.
Nah, Igawa was hittable in NPB. He was good, sure, but he was hittable.

Tanaka's been insanely, mindblowingly dominant. Over his last 76 starts, he's 53-9, 1.44 ERA, a home run allowed every ~36 innings, 1.15 BB/9, 8.73 K/9, 7.3 H/9.

I mean, it's entirely possible that he gets posted, someone drops $100+M on the posting fee and his contract, and then he blows his arm out. But that'd make him another Matsuzaka, IMO. He's way, way too good to be another Igawa.
   9. SG Posted: November 15, 2013 at 02:25 PM (#4600781)
But he's Japanese. They're all the same, aren't they?
   10. tfbg9 Posted: November 15, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4600843)
Tanaka's been insanely, mindblowingly dominant. Over his last 76 starts, he's 53-9, 1.44 ERA, a home run allowed every ~36 innings, 1.15 BB/9, 8.73 K/9, 7.3 H/9.


In 2011 and 2012, the runs scored per game levels of his league bottomed-out dropping from 2010's ~4.40 from to ~3.40, about a full run per game. In 2013 they came back up to around 4 per game. So, while he's clearly been great over there, some of it seems to be the result of some kind of League-wide messing-around with baseball or whatever. In 2011, the average ERA was 2.95!

   11. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: November 15, 2013 at 03:38 PM (#4600846)
In 2011 and 2012, the runs scored per game levels of his league bottomed-out dropping from 2010's ~4.40 from to ~3.40, about a full run per game. In 2013 they came back up to around 4 per game. So, while he's clearly been great over there, some of it seems to be the result of some kind of League-wide messing-around with baseball or whatever. In 2011, the average ERA was 2.95!

The jump in 2013 is attributable to the NPB doctoring the ball to make it fly further. Kato recently had to step down because of this controversy.
   12. The Clarence Thomas of BBTF (scott) Posted: November 15, 2013 at 03:43 PM (#4600849)
Tanaka's k rate has dropped about 2 per nine over the last 2 years. I think he's more likely to be a Matsuzaka than a Darvish.

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