Self-promotion, I gather?

Don't forget to enjoy a Dos Equis while you watch the game.

Yes, self promotion, but I left it up to the admins to see whether the audience would be interested.

Interesting that your third order win percentage simulator projects San Francisco out so low. I recently calculated first order Pythagorean Win % for Post-AS break 2010 numbers, and found that San Francisco was projected as the third best team in the majors, second best in the NL. San Francisco, as a team, largely changed composition from the first half of 2010 to the second half of 2010, so half-season analysis is a more valid predictor of their postseason performance, IMO. In fact, they were exactly 41-40 at the 50% point. My analysis avoided selective endpoints, however, and just used post-AS break numbers.

I don't think the Giants should be considered such underdogs, based on the post-AS break 2010 numbers. I wonder if your WP3 numbers would agree with the WP1 numbers.

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/posts/preview/1542071

Odds? Chances? WP3? Destiny said the probability was 1.

San Francisco isn't the only team that is better than their record. Texas added Cliff Lee, obviously, but Kinsler and Cruz both missed 50+ games and Hamilton missed 30. Also, they've stopped giving ABs to Smoak and Davis and appear to have decided Cantu isn't the answer at 1st either. Also, they seem to have benched Borbon in favor of a Murphy/Frenchy platoon. So, just like SF, Texas has done a good job of minimizing the dead weight on their roster. Also, their big hitters appear to be healthy.

Don't forget to enjoy a Dos Equis while you watch the game.

Only the Amber. Serving the "Lager" is regarded as a "crime against humanity" under the auspices of the Geneva Convention ...

Nivra: I'm not surprised. Both SFO and TEX are better than the data I'm using. I relied on Baseball Prospectus' WP3 calculations, mainly because they do a better job adjusting for schedule and park than I do.

That said, all postseason teams tend to make big trades that improve their roster that also aren't accounted for fully in regular season stats. Nevertheless, the historical data going back to 1995 still indicate that two teams with these particular full season WP3 numbers winning their respective LCS should happen about once every 30-35 seasons, and even the market (which should theoretically do a better job weighting new information) put both teams making the WS at about a 24:1 shot.

So even considering the resurgence of both teams, this outcome is nevertheless rare.

Postseason Simulator Marginally Favors San Francisco (50.1%)

My postseason simulator has the Giants at 50.0%. Of course, my postseason simulator is a 1996 nickel.

Who cares about simulation. I want to know what Paul the Octopus thinks.

What's that, you say?

RIP, friend.

#10 Did you run your simulation 10,000 times? I'm not going to trust a sim with fewer runs than that.

Nice that you've shared your source code though.