Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

PP: What active players are on their way to Cooperstown? (NL Edition)

Guess four straight OBP titles don’t go as far as they used to.

Cincinnati Reds

Locks: None | On the fringes: None | Jury’s out: Joey Votto

Votto, 30, has raked since cameoing in 2007, with a career .314/.419/.541 career triple-slash. He’s accumulated 33 fWAR in his seven seasons (six full), and won an MVP in 2010. Holding him back, however, are the counting stats that really boost a player’s candidacy in voters’ eyes. With just 999 hits and 157 home runs at his age, he’s not going to wind up with gaudy career numbers. There’s no doubting he’s been a great player, but he has a lot to overcome.

New York Mets

Locks: David Wright | On the fringes: None | Jury’s out: Matt Harvey

Wright may be the best position player in Mets’ history. The 31 year-old already has 50.2 fWAR, and numerous impressive offensive seasons under his belt. Playing at Citi Field may hold back his counting stats in the long-run, but I believe Wright has all but punched his ticket to Cooperstown.

Obviously, Harvey’s future would have looked a lot more exciting without the Tommy John Surgery. By losing a season of his career to rehab, his best shot at the Hall will be producing an incredible peak. The odds are extremely slim, but I felt like mentioning him after such an awesome 26 starts in 2013.

Philadelphia Phillies

Locks: Chase Utley | On the fringes: Cliff Lee | Jury’s out: None

Utley has struggled to remain healthy the past few seasons, which I think has made some forget about just how great of a player he is. He’s one of the great hitting second baseman in history, and an excellent defender as well. He posted five consecutive seasons of 7.1 fWAR or greater, including two 8 win seasons. And, even though he’s missed chunks of time over the past three seasons, he’s still managed to be no worse than a three-win player in each. His 55.2 career fWAR for a second baseman is nothing to sneeze at, and with still a few more years to play, he has a good shot at cracking 70. I do worry that the voters may not appreciate him in the same way, but for me, he’s deserving.

What hurts Lee is that he didn’t do all too much before age 29. Now 35, Lee is going to have to defy the aging curve in order to win over the voters. He’s closed the gap pretty quickly, with a Cy Young and 46.5 fWAR, but he still has his work cut out for him.

Repoz Posted: December 24, 2013 at 12:04 PM | 49 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: hof

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Davo Dozier (Mastroianni) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 12:38 PM (#4623497)
They have Hanley Ramirez "on the fringes," but his new hairstyle should really be enough to push him into the "lock" category.

The other thing this exercise hammered home to me....We appear to be living in a time with surprisingly few Hall of Fame "locks." I mean, if we'd done this in 2005, there would have been about 10 "locks"--Biggio, Bagwell, Piazza, Johnson, Maddux, Martinez, Clemens, Bonds, Glavine, Rivera.... I guess we're in a bit of a lull historically, in terms of having all-time great players active but still at the end of their careers right now.
   2. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 12:43 PM (#4623500)
Over generous with Utley as mentioned in the other thread, but still like the concept of this article, still wished he would have put in at least a mention for the best player on each team.

Not sure how Matt Holliday doesn't get a mention 40 war at age 33 might be a low total, but he's signed for four more seasons, and 55+ war is very possible. Not enough to put him in, unless he has an MVP year in there, but still not totally worth ignoring.

But the sad part is how few NL players are hof locks nowadays.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 12:50 PM (#4623504)
Ryan Howard and maybe even Jimmy Rollins should be "on the fringes". I bet they'll get some decent support.

The "jury's out" guys are kinda ridiculous. Puig has played 108 games. Why not put Byron Buxton on there.

We discussed this in the other thread, but Utley is not a lock by any means.

David Wright is not a lock. Through age 30, he's slightly better than Scott Rolen, who was okayish after age 30 and isn't sniffing the HOF.

If Matt Kemp can bounce back from last year, he should at least be in the conversation.

And I agree, this is a fun conversation starter. My criticism should not be taken as a criticism of the piece, just nitpicking.
   4. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:01 PM (#4623515)
New York Mets

Locks: David Wright | On the fringes: None | Jury’s out: Matt Harvey


There may be no bigger Wright fan than me, I make both my young ones wear Wright Jerseys... and

lock?????

he's still a ways away, and he's missed hefty chunks of 2 of the last 3 years, on the plus side he seems to have finally gotten past that beaning triggered K-Rate boost, and his defense has become much more consistent and quite frankly better- at an age that a 3B's defense should not ordinarily be improving- he always had the defensive tools, but his Dee was regressing pretty severely there for a few years (his dee went in the toilet at the same time his K rate went up 30%, obviously he was having some type of issues 2009-2011- which I tend to attribute to his 8/2009 beaning and concussion- but who really knows, not I)

His BBREF comps through age 30 features 2 HOFers, Brett and Yaz, a guy who should be a lock (Chipper), guy who is either going to be screwed or made to wait 40 years (Rolen), a guy slowly picking up traction (Beltre), a very very very rich guy (Cano), a fotmer teammate who is going to get screwed like Rolen (Beltran) and Gary Sheffield, Aramis Ramirez and Sean Green...

   5. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:07 PM (#4623522)
lock?????


This guys definition of "lock" is different than most other peoples. As best as I can tell, he's assuming a normal decline phase for whoever it is. Wright is going on 31 years old, has 47 War(50fWar) and just completed his second consecutive elite level season. It's reasonable to assume that with a normal decline phase, that he'll put up roughly 20 more war, this guy has 60 war as the line, so I can see him regarding Wright a lock. 10 fwar over the next 5 seasons should be a given.
   6. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:12 PM (#4623524)
As a Cardinal fan, I have to apologize for missing the other obvious Cardinal he ignored (no not Kozma!) but Adam Wainwright. Really this guy isn't even on the radar? 3 Cy Young quality seasons (including the most recent) plays for a team that is known to put up good seasons(so his win total should be pretty nice) he's not too old(for a pitcher)...

I don't expect him to go either, but by the time he's done he could be a Kevin Brown type of candidate.
   7. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:15 PM (#4623525)
Through age 30, he's slightly better than Scott Rolen, who was okayish after age 30 and isn't sniffing the HOF.


Really? I think Rolen will fairly easily make it into the HOF.
   8. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:22 PM (#4623528)
Really? I think Rolen will fairly easily make it into the HOF.


We're talking MSM here. He "only" has 316 home runs, has only 2000 hits, 2004 is the only year he even sniffed an MVP. He was never a big star, isn't really associated with one team. He has a ring (and was awesome in the WS), but I just don't think the MSM is going to see him as Hall worthy. At the very least, he's not going to be a slam dunk, and I wouldn't be surprised if he's only on the ballot a few seasons.
   9. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:24 PM (#4623531)
Really? I think Rolen will fairly easily make it into the HOF.


By the time he becomes eligible, he won't sniff the hof. Doesn't have the counting numbers, too much of his value is tied up in his defense, too many incomplete seasons, too many teams played on, etc. He could overcome one or two of those, but I think he'll be sticking on the ballot more in the mode of Murphy than in the mode of Rice.

Unless he gets a Lederer campaign going for him, I don't see him getting in. Add in that Chipper hits the ballot at the same time, and he's dwarved by another at the same position, and then Beltre will have picked up his 3000th hit at that time along with a still overcrowded ballot and he's going to be Santo'ed.
   10. BDC Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:24 PM (#4623532)
The closest complete career to Wright's is Wally Berger's. They are (so far) good matches in nearly every way but baserunning; even if WAR underrates Wright's defense, Berger was a well-regarded CF when young, and a very fine hitter:

Player         Rfield   PA OPSWAR/pos    H  HR  SB   BA     Pos
Wally Berger       20 5665  138    42.0 1550 242  36 .300 
*87/H39
David Wright      
-11 5945  137    46.7 1558 222 183 .301  *5/HD6 


As Sycophant and fanboy note, Wright with a dignified decline can be extrapolated into the HOF: if he reaches some milestones and the HOF starts to think third base is a useful position :) But he obviously won't make the Hall if hit by a bus. He won't make it either if (like Berger) his decline is hastened by injuries. The thing I'd worry about with Wright is his missing over 100 games in the past three seasons.
   11. JJ1986 Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:37 PM (#4623536)
Since Wright obviously isn't a lock, who is the most likely player in the NL? Kershaw's the best, but he's a young pitcher. Lee is going to end up with a fairly low career value. Molina could get there if he continues a normal career path, but has nowhere near the resume yet.
   12. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:45 PM (#4623540)
Tulowitzki would get my vote as most likely in the NL. But of course he's a ways off from being even on the bubble, but if I was a betting man, he would get my vote.
   13. BDC Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:49 PM (#4623545)
As others have mentioned, this just seems very weird, not to have an obvious Hall of Famer active in an entire league. In the AL you can at least see AROD and Pujols and Derek Jeter, health and legal issues permitting, and they're your basic HOFers, just as one expects in every generation.

He hasn't been mentioned, but I might bet on Tim Hudson for the HOF some day. (And might not live to collect :) Hudson may be through, or he may find his fourth or fifth wind, win another fifty games, and get some rings. That's how strange the current situation is.
   14. Davo Dozier (Mastroianni) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:56 PM (#4623551)
Players currently under contract with National League teams, ranked by WAR:

1. Chase Utley
2. David Wright
3. Cliff Lee
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Matt Holliday
6. Rafael Furcal
7. Carl Crawford
8. Eric Chavez
9. Zack Greinke
10. Ryan Braun

Players currently under contract with National League teams, ranked by WAR:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Albert Pujols
3. Derek Jeter
4. Adrian Beltre
5. Carlos Beltran
6. Ichiro Suzuki
7. Tim Hudson
8. CC Sabathia
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Mark Buehrle

#13 on the American League list (Mark Teixeira) has more WAR than #2 on the National League list. What the heck happened???
   15. Davo Dozier (Mastroianni) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 01:57 PM (#4623553)
Oh, blergh, for some reason I thought Tim Hudson had signed with Oakland. Bah!
   16. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 02:00 PM (#4623555)

We're talking MSM here.


Hmmm. I think Rolen is more highly-regarded by the MSM than most saber types. Was a Cardinal, which like being a Yankee is always good for a boost. Had a reputation for 'playing the game the right way', of being clean in the steroid era. Considered one of the best at his position, if not the best, during his career.
   17. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 02:18 PM (#4623569)
Hmmm. I think Rolen is more highly-regarded by the MSM than most saber types. Was a Cardinal, which like being a Yankee is always good for a boost. Had a reputation for 'playing the game the right way', of being clean in the steroid era. Considered one of the best at his position, if not the best, during his career.


Had a prickly personality, had problems with management in multiple locales... he loses as much as he gains.
   18. Moeball Posted: December 24, 2013 at 02:58 PM (#4623592)
San Diego Padres

Locks: None | On the fringes: None | Jury’s out: None


This is just depressing (sigh).

At least BITD, there may have been some bad teams, but at least there was Winfield, or Ozzie, or Tony or somebody worth paying money to go see play.

Now there's not much of anything of interest happening on the roster and I don't see the front office being competent enough to change that. Drafts and player development over the last decade have been nothing short of useless. How do you play in a great pitcher's park year after year but not be able to develop any quality pitching? There are no Clayton Kershaws on the horizon in San Diego and, even if there were, the team would never keep them.

As a season ticket holder, it's going to be a long season next year without much to cheer for.

At least I'll eat well as the only serious upgrade this team has made recently is to the food served at the park.
   19. Ziggy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 03:08 PM (#4623598)
The HOF is so amazingly hard to get in to, I'm not confident that ANYONE on that NL list will make it. Wright and Holiday probably have the best shot, but frankly neither one seems likely to me. The voters hold 3B to more-or-less the same standards as corner outfielders, and so they'll probably demand about the same production from Wright as from Holiday. Wright has been better and started younger, but Holiday is healthier and has a batting title. Maybe whichever one is still playing at 42 makes it. Cliff Lee is a beast, but his first season that actually helps a hall of fame resume was his age 29 season. I know about Hoyt Wilhelm, but I still think it's safe to say that he has no chance.

The AL list is of course much stronger. The top three (steroids aside) all pass the bus test, and maybe Cabrera does too. (If he met the bus tomorrow he'd probably get the Puckett treatment, though he's much better than Puckett was.) I'm not as confident about Beltre and Beltran as lots of people around here are. Beltran is already 36, the odds are that all he has left is some decline phase. It'll let him rack up a few more hits, but he's not going to reach 3000, and it will pull his rate stats down.
   20. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 24, 2013 at 03:19 PM (#4623608)
I don't see how Rolen gets in if Santo couldn't (sort-of). Santo beats him in HR, RBI, Hits in a much tougher hitting environment. These are some of the categories the voters weigh as important. Additionally, there's the perception (real or imagined) that Rolen was injury prone.
I like to think I'm pretty knowledgeable about baseball, but even I was surprised to see Rolen has a 70 WAR because quite frankly I never saw him as a future HOFmer.
Also, there wasn't really a standard for 3b when Santo hit the ballot. Who was he measured against? Pie Traynor? Stan Hack? Other then Eddie Mathews, who himself didn't get in till his 5th ballot (what a freaking joke) there just weren't any top-tier 3b. Since then we've added three ~inner-circle guys, another guy who's a legend and another upper-tier guy hitting the ballot at the same time as him.
Then we have a bunch of his contemporary's like David Wright, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria, Matt Williams, Ryan Zimmerman, Aramis Ramirez, and Robin Ventura and I think Rolen just gets lost.

   21. Walt Davis Posted: December 24, 2013 at 03:39 PM (#4623615)
rolen will be one of many test cases of saber influence. even some of the crusty voters are at least checking the war lists. like#20 they will be surprised to see how high he is and will dig deeper. but the ballot will still be crowded so I don't think he'll have a great debut.
   22. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 03:43 PM (#4623616)
I like to think I'm pretty knowledgeable about baseball, but even I was surprised to see Rolen has a 70 WAR because quite frankly I never saw him as a future HOFmer.


Really?(I'm assuming you follow AL baseball primarily?) I'm fairly certain Rolen as a future hofer was pretty much a given, he just had to get the counting numbers up. But here was a guy widely considered to be the best defensive third baseman in the history of the game at his peak, who put up Santo like offensive numbers and just needed a normal decline phase to get the counting numbers. I don't think I've ever heard of anyone not considering him a potential future hofer during his prime years.


The HOF is so amazingly hard to get in to, I'm not confident that ANYONE on that NL list will make it. Wright and Holiday probably have the best shot, but frankly neither one seems likely to me. The voters hold 3B to more-or-less the same standards as corner outfielders, and so they'll probably demand about the same production from Wright as from Holiday. Wright has been better and started younger, but Holiday is healthier and has a batting title. Maybe whichever one is still playing at 42 makes it. Cliff Lee is a beast, but his first season that actually helps a hall of fame resume was his age 29 season. I know about Hoyt Wilhelm, but I still think it's safe to say that he has no chance.

The AL list is of course much stronger. The top three (steroids aside) all pass the bus test, and maybe Cabrera does too. (If he met the bus tomorrow he'd probably get the Puckett treatment, though he's much better than Puckett was.) I'm not as confident about Beltre and Beltran as lots of people around here are. Beltran is already 36, the odds are that all he has left is some decline phase. It'll let him rack up a few more hits, but he's not going to reach 3000, and it will pull his rate stats down.


Everyone taking Beltre is assuming he gets very close if not over 3000 hits. He doesn't go in if he ends up with 2700(although he would deserve it more than likely) People are taking Beltran because he's got a three year contract with the Yankees, and had a good offensive year last year that most people expect him to be able to repeat a 120 ops+ season over the next three while playing roughly 120 or so games a year.

I think that the glut of hofers on the ballot now, has led to a dearth of players. A lot of the locks have recently retired and the next generation just hasn't proven themselves yet.

As normal, there is probably 20-30 hofers playing right now, it's just not easy to identify them as many are still fairly early in their career, or in the case of pitchers, outside of the elite, hof pitchers really make their case from their age 30-36 seasons and the best of that group, Halladay, just retired. What they do before their age 30 season is important of course, but if they can't survive until the late 30's, it doesn't really matter.
   23. Buck Coats Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:00 PM (#4623622)
I don't think I've ever heard of anyone not considering him [Rolen] a potential future hofer during his prime years.


I don't think this is correct at all. And the fact that he has only one top-10 MVP finish (4th) would imply that the writers didn't consider him a future HOFer. Contrast that with Jeter who did that 8 times or Ichiro (4 times, once winning it). Adrian Beltre has 4 top-10 finishes including a 2nd place and a 3rd place finish.
   24. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:08 PM (#4623625)


I don't think this is correct at all. And the fact that he has only one top-10 MVP finish (4th) would imply that the writers didn't consider him a future HOFer. Contrast that with Jeter who did that 8 times or Ichiro (4 times, once winning it). Adrian Beltre has 4 top-10 finishes including a 2nd place and a 3rd place finish.


And yet Rolen was a better hitter than Beltre, and has a reputation as a better defender. I think if you took a poll Rolen would score well above Beltre.

And just checking ... ELOrater has Rolen at #70, Beltre at #116. That's about what I would expect.

   25. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:18 PM (#4623629)
Really?(I'm assuming you follow AL baseball primarily?) I'm fairly certain Rolen as a future hofer was pretty much a given, he just had to get the counting numbers up. But here was a guy widely considered to be the best defensive third baseman in the history of the game at his peak, who put up Santo like offensive numbers and just needed a normal decline phase to get the counting numbers. I don't think I've ever heard of anyone not considering him a potential future hofer during his prime years.


I'm not sure how to take that, but ASSUMING you weren't being condescending I'll try to answer. I've been a stat head since my dad brought home the 1966 edition of Who's who in baseball, which if memory serves had The Say Hey Kid on the cover. At 7 yrs. old I used to freak people out because I knew how many HR Harmon Killebrew hit in 1962 or what Dick Groats lifetme BA was.
My passion for the game has remained pretty much unabated through adulthood and despite that, some players just kind of sneak-up on you, or your perception of that player is a little off.
I think in Rolens case, I didn't realize how many quality years he actually had. I remembered him as being injury prone and having more partial seasons then he actually had.
Plus, I never liked him, he struck me as whiny the way he left Philly so maybe it was wishful thinking. Also, there's a difference between being a potential future HOFmer and a likely future HOFmer. His 70 WAR puts him well over the in/out line, and that is what surprised me.
   26. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:25 PM (#4623633)


And yet Rolen was a better hitter than Beltre, and has a reputation as a better defender. I think if you took a poll Rolen would score well above Beltre.


I think that would really depend on where you took that poll. The reality is, they're both probably grossly underrated by the avg. fan so I'm not sure that would tell you anything. Take a poll using those two and David Wright, and I'm pretty sure the avg. fan will say Wright has the best chance at getting into the HOF.
   27. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:40 PM (#4623637)

And just checking ... ELOrater has Rolen at #70, Beltre at #116. That's about what I would expect.


Pujols is 82nd, Yaz 16th, Kaline 20, Banks 23, Bonds 118,. Among pitchers: Koosman 34, Clemens 36

Who takes this serious.
   28. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:41 PM (#4623638)
I'm not sure how to take that, but ASSUMING you weren't being condescending I'll try to answer.


Wasn't being condescending, just curious as to the thought process in regards to the knowledge of the time, in which someone would take Schmidt over Bench for MVP that year. I can see now looking backwards that Schmidt was probably more valuable, but I didn't think that in 1974 the knowledge was sophisticated enough for someone to see it. I imagine the fact that he was the two time defending MVP champ, that hurt him with the voters. But considering that part of the reason that Schmidt beats him in war, is because he played nearly 20 games at outfield and war accounts for that, but a scan of the stats doesn't show that. (and considering that people even nowadays don't realize how many games Mauer doesn't play per year at catcher, it's very likely that wasn't common knowledge to everyone then)

   29. JJ1986 Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:43 PM (#4623640)
Who takes this serious.


Apparently Jerry Koosman.
   30. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:47 PM (#4623642)
I honestly do think, that those who are saying Rolen wasn't perceived as a hofer while playing, have to be AL fans. I just can't see it any other way. I know that I'm the same way when it comes to some AL guys. People kept talking about how Alomar was perceived as a hofer and Biggio wasn't(when my experience it was the opposite) etc.
   31. Booey Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:51 PM (#4623643)
Really? I think Rolen will fairly easily make it into the HOF.


I'm with those who don't think he will. He deserves it, of course, but I think he'll get Jeff Kent type support, if that (and I think Kent is in danger of being one and done). As others have mentioned, writers don't adjust strongly enough for 3B, his counting stats are too low, he only had one real WOW! MVP caliber season, and the ballot will still just be too damn packed to stand out.

Everyone taking Beltre is assuming he gets very close if not over 3000 hits. He doesn't go in if he ends up with 2700


I think he does anyway. He'll still have 450ish homers and 1500+ rbi's. His power numbers will likely be pretty similar to Chipper's, actually. He doesn't have Jones' rate stats obviously, but the defensive reputation will make up for some of that. I don't think he's a HOFer NOW, 70 WAR be damned. But I think he pretty clearly will be - even from a non-SABR POV - when he's finished.

Beltran will be a little tougher. I think he'll need another few years like his last couple to even be in the conversation as a Dawson type candidate (inaccurate and unfair as that may be).
   32. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:55 PM (#4623648)
Wasn't being condescending, just curious as to the thought process in regards to the knowledge of the time, in which someone would take Schmidt over Bench for MVP that year. I can see now looking backwards that Schmidt was probably more valuable, but I didn't think that in 1974 the knowledge was sophisticated enough for someone to see it. I imagine the fact that he was the two time defending MVP champ, that hurt him with the voters. But considering that part of the reason that Schmidt beats him in war, is because he played nearly 20 games at outfield and war accounts for that, but a scan of the stats doesn't show that. (and considering that people even nowadays don't realize how many games Mauer doesn't play per year at catcher, it's very likely that wasn't common knowledge to everyone then)


Wrong thread.
   33. Booey Posted: December 24, 2013 at 04:59 PM (#4623650)
I honestly do think, that those who are saying Rolen wasn't perceived as a hofer while playing, have to be AL fans. I just can't see it any other way. I know that I'm the same way when it comes to some AL guys. People kept talking about how Alomar was perceived as a hofer and Biggio wasn't(when my experience it was the opposite) etc.


That's interesting. I'm from a state without a team in either league, so I guess that makes me neutral, and in talks I've had with other baseball fans over the years, Alomar and Biggio were both considered HOF locks by pretty much everyone, whereas Rolen really wasn't. I never heard him talked about as a future HOFer - now, or at his peak - anywhere but on BBTF. He really seems like the horribly underappreciated type with a good chance to be Whitakered to me.
   34. Buck Coats Posted: December 24, 2013 at 05:03 PM (#4623652)
I honestly do think, that those who are saying Rolen wasn't perceived as a hofer while playing, have to be AL fans. I just can't see it any other way.


Do you think all those NL MVP voters were also just AL fans? I mean, it's not like this guy was playing for second-divison teams his whole career, he made the playoffs 5 times. And only once did they think he was one of the 10 best players in the National League.
   35. BDC Posted: December 24, 2013 at 05:06 PM (#4623654)
A factoid that points to how Adrian Beltre's image is growing is that in each year since coming to Texas, he's won a Player of the Month award, and twice ('11 and '12) the month has been September.

The award per se doesn't matter a rambling iota to anybody's HOF case; it has been won in recent years by such immortals as Jason Kipnis and Kendry Morales. But the MVPs and HOF-candidate types win it repeatedly, and it gets some press. Beltre is a streaky player, and he can appear to carry a team for a while (and it's not all appearance). He's had a couple of 3-HR games, one of them in a game that clinched a playoff series. It's tiny stuff in the statistical balance, but it gets people's attention.
   36. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 05:08 PM (#4623656)
Wrong thread.


Ooops....


The first point stands, I wasn't being condescending. I just find it hard to believe that people think Rolen wasn't very well regarded in his prime as a potential hofer. Many of the articles gave the same caveat, that he needed to be healthy, but that he was clearly on a hof path, or at least on par with the underrated, and undervalued deserving hofer, Santo.

I think he does anyway. He'll still have 450ish homers and 1500+ rbi's. His power numbers will likely be pretty similar to Chipper's, actually. He doesn't have Jones' rate stats obviously, but the defensive reputation will make up for some of that. I don't think he's a HOFer NOW, 70 WAR be damned. But I think he pretty clearly will be - even from a non-SABR POV - when he's finished.


I don't think people trust the defensive numbers on Beltre to be honest. I think they over correct(which seems to be the norm when the numbers are too big) in defense against the defensive numbers. Even discounting 50% of his defensive numbers that still puts him over 60 war right now. If you are of the opinion that War is the first and ultimate determiner of HOF worthiness, it's hard to imagine a world in which Beltre doesn't clear the hurdle.

Even if you aren't that much convinced by war, if you do a reasonable look at his performance, relative to other players at his position, he should still cross the threshold.
   37. cardsfanboy Posted: December 24, 2013 at 05:12 PM (#4623659)
Do you think all those NL MVP voters were also just AL fans? I mean, it's not like this guy was playing for second-divison teams his whole career, he made the playoffs 5 times. And only once did they think he was one of the 10 best players in the National League.


No, but I think that mvp is a seasonal award and that a hof perception isn't about seasonal awards.
   38. spike Posted: December 24, 2013 at 05:12 PM (#4623660)
#13 on the American League list (Mark Teixeira) has more WAR than #2 on the National League list. What the heck happened???


Chipper Jones just retired, and Pujols and Beltran, after accumulating the majority of their WAR in the NL retired to the American League. Not to mention Hudson and Beltre also have significant NL WAR totals.
   39. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 24, 2013 at 05:46 PM (#4623673)
The AL has a built in advantage for "future Hall of Famers" because fHOFers tend to be older players like Jeter and Pujols and AROD and Tex who need the DH to keep themselves employed while they chase round numbers for their career totals.
   40. Mickey Henry Mays Posted: December 24, 2013 at 05:55 PM (#4623677)
The difference between Beltre and Rolen is that Beltre is still adding to his resume. Even assuming he doesn't quite yet rate a "hit by a bus" candidate, how much more does he have to do? Lets be conservative; he's going over 400 HR, 1500 RBI, ~600 2b and 2800 Hits and at least 4 GG. He even has a HR title which is nice for a glove first guy. He's got all the numbers that impress the dinosaurs and with a ~75 WAR he clears the saber-hurdle.
Beltre really benefited from starting so young as reflected in his career numbers, his career was rated as a disappointment until he left Seattle and he really snuck-up as first a possible HOFmer, and now a likely HOFmer.
   41. GregD Posted: December 24, 2013 at 06:12 PM (#4623681)
I think Rolen is an HOFer. I would not, though, be surprised if he has a serious wait or even a VC entry.

My recollection as an NL fan is:
Rolen is a superduperstar!at age 22 and 23, roll over Mike Schmidt
Followed by Rolen is real good but is he getting any better and how often is he going to be hurt for ages 24-27
Then Rolen is a superstar! for 28 & 29
Followed by how often is this guy going to be hurt for 30-33.
Followed by hey for a guy who's often hurt, he's actually still playing well ages 34-35
Followed by guess it's over 36-37

So I do think the narrative of Rolen future HOFer was very established early on but had faded over those 4 seasons where he was good but didn't become better than he looked at 23 (unfair expectation, sure.) Then as he reasserted himself in the popular mind as a future HOFer, the injury narrative took over.

I think you could regroup his career to look like an easy HOFer, but I also think he was fading from popular consideration. And I think injuries particularly hurt players who have a strong defensive reputation, as it seemed to me that people stopped talking about his defense (fairly or unfairly.)

The awards vote means something--he is 406th all-time in them. Whatever you want to say about seasonal vs career awards may be true, but it's also true that it tells us something about how the mainstream press saw a player. He's more than 200 spots behind the also-underappreciated Ron Santo.

I'm not making a case against Rolen; I would vote for him in a snap. But I do think there's reason to believe he'll have a hard time building momentum. We'll see.

   42. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: December 24, 2013 at 06:17 PM (#4623685)
I like Rolen well enough, but a Hall with no room for Fred McGriff can't find a cot for Scott Rolen.
   43. Booey Posted: December 24, 2013 at 06:52 PM (#4623691)
I don't think people trust the defensive numbers on Beltre to be honest. I think they over correct(which seems to be the norm when the numbers are too big) in defense against the defensive numbers. Even discounting 50% of his defensive numbers that still puts him over 60 war right now. If you are of the opinion that War is the first and ultimate determiner of HOF worthiness, it's hard to imagine a world in which Beltre doesn't clear the hurdle.

Even if you aren't that much convinced by war, if you do a reasonable look at his performance, relative to other players at his position, he should still cross the threshold.


He's got some gold gloves to show for his defense though, so even if people don't completely buy the defensive stats, the reputation is there. I think it'll be enough, even without 3000 hits. I'd actually probably give Beltre one of the best chances of any active player to get elected outside of Jeter/Ichiro/Pujols/Cabrera. Rolen may have been a better rate hitter, but Beltre already beats him on counting stats and should crush him by the end of his career with even a normal decline.
   44. BDC Posted: December 24, 2013 at 06:57 PM (#4623693)
Batting comps for Rolen, centered on him in terms of PA and OPS+:

Player          Rfield   PA OPSWAR/pos  SB        Pos
Scott Rolen        175 8518  122    69.9 118       
*5/H
George Davis       140 8310  124    77.7 519   
*654/379
Bobby Grich         81 8220  125    71.0 104   
*46/3H5D
Johnny Bench        75 8674  126    75.1  68  
*253H/798
Ed Konetchy         50 8664  123    46.1 255   
*3/8H179
Sal Bando           37 8287  119    61.5  75 
*5/DH36471
Yogi Berra          31 8359  125    59.3  30   
*2H79/35
Jake Daubert        23 8744  117    39.1 251       
*3/H
Ron Cey             19 8344  121    53.2  24     
*5/HD3
Paul ONeill          8 8329  120    38.8 141  
*9H/73D81
Stan Hack            2 8508  119    52.5 165      
*5/H3
Heinie Manush       
-1 8419  121    45.7 113    *78H9/3
Ron Fairly          
-7 8437  117    35.1  35   *39H78/D
Jim Bottomley      
-73 8354  125    35.5  58      *3H/4
Bobby Bonilla     
-121 8257  124    30.2  45  597H3/D81 


The Hall of Fame, despite its (one-time) tendency to induct anybody from c1930 who could shoulder a bat, really has had some sense of WAR principles. Great catchers who hit like Rolen are no-doubt inner-circle HOFers. Middle infielders with more balanced skills need to wait about a century (Davis, Grich). Gloveless sluggers, no thanks (Fairly, Bonilla).

So what's interesting here is the sheer number of decent-to-good fielding 3B who have batting careers in Rolen's neighborhood: Hack, Cey, Bando. All have some argument to be seen as elite 3B, if not at a Schmidt-or-Jones level; Hack, at least, is in the Hall of Merit. Rolen is not definitively separable from them as a hitter, so his HOF case – indeed his HOM case too – depends a lot on evaluating him as a phenomenal fielding third baseman. Here, the numbers, the MSM perception, the Gold Gloves, and FWIW what little I saw of him all converge; he was great. But then the trouble is that 3B defense has only erratically gotten anybody into the Hall of Fame (Jimmy Collins, Pie Traynor, and Brooks Robinson benefited most from it, and all had other things going for them).

Waiting about a century should do it, though, unless by TransZoopWar of the early 22nd Rolen is newly perceived as a real dog out there.
   45. chisoxcollector Posted: December 24, 2013 at 07:39 PM (#4623701)
Count me among those that doesn't think Rolen was thought of as a likely HOFer at any point during his career. He certainly seems deserving, but I don't expect the writers to vote him in unless there are major changes to the makeup of the group.
   46. Srul Itza Posted: December 24, 2013 at 08:07 PM (#4623709)
I don't think people trust the defensive numbers on Beltre to be honest


And they do on Rolen?

Rolen's problem is that a huge amount of his value is in defense, but there is only room for one "Greatest Fielding X" of all time," and that slot is occupied by Brooks Robinson.

His rate stats at third are good, but like Raines, he is going to be compared to a better offensive star in the same role, Chipper Jones.

His raw numbers are not HOF caliber for the guys looking for milestones -- under 2,100 hits, only 316 HR, in the 1200s in Runs and RBIS, no SBs, etc.


The 8 Gold Gloves are the big calling card for him. I don't know if that will be enough with the good hitting, when weighed against no black ink at all, only one top-10 MVP (4th Place), and being split between 3 main teams. I think he will get a push, as sabermetric analysis and WAR becomes a more common tool among the voters, but if he does get it, it is going to take time.
   47. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: December 24, 2013 at 10:51 PM (#4623742)
And yet Rolen was a better hitter than Beltre, and has a reputation as a better defender.

He also has a (somewhat justified) reputation as not being able to stay on the field. Rolen had 5 150-game seasons in his career; Beltre has 9 and counting. Beltre already has 800 more plate appearances than Rolen, and is still going very strong.

That's part of the reason Beltre's MVP finishes are higher, and why virtually all of his counting stats are either already higher or will be by the end of next season. That has a good chance of making a difference in the voting if they're on the ballot concurrently.

I'd vote for both of them without hesitation, ballot clog permitting. But I'd already be leaning toward having Beltre ahead, and that's before his career is over.
   48. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 25, 2013 at 10:16 AM (#4623798)
This thread reminds me of one of those ESPN.com state-by-state polls.

Will Scott Rolen go to the Hall of Fame?

YES: Missouri, Indiana
NO: 48 other states
   49. Walt Davis Posted: December 25, 2013 at 09:08 PM (#4623950)
On league differences: Looking at the top 25 on the hypothetical 2016 HoF ballot:

NL

Bonds
Maddux
Glavine
Schilling
Bagwell
Walker
Smoltz
Raines
Biggio
Edmonds (by WAR)
Piazza
Sosa
Kent

AL
Clemens
Pedro
Griffey
Mussina
Thomas
Palmeiro
Trammell
Edgar

mixed
Johnson
McGwire
Sheffield
McGriff

So that's 13-8-4. Debatable on some of the mixes -- McGriff/Sheffield probably to the NL by WAR; McGwire became super-famous in the NL; I don't know how the Unit's WAR breaks down but he won all his CYA in the NL; Edmonds could be in the mixed batch but he established his HoF possibility in the NL.

So I might call it as bad as 17-8. Schilling, Raines, Sosa and Sheffield are the only ones who spent substantial AL time towards the end of their careers but I think it only substantially impacts Schilling's chances -- and from his vote totals, he never really made it to "lock" status. His time with the Yanks helps Sheff's case and he passed 500 HR in the AL.

So let's take 2004, still active

Bonds -- lock
Bagwell -- apparently not a lock but he'll get there
Griffey -- lock
Palmeiro -- "lock"
ARod -- "lock"
Larkin -- see Bagwell
Walker -- sigh
Edgar -- chances not good now
Thomas -- lock
Alomar -- lock
Biggio -- not a lock yet
Lofton -- nope
Pudge II -- "lock"
Piazza -- as "locked" as he was gonna get
Thome -- closing in
Sheffield -- closing in
Chipper -- closing in
McGriff -- McGriff
Edmonds -- can't keep this up can he?
Bernie -- fading fast
Manny -- Cabrera
Kent -- where'd he come from?
Rolen -- see above
Andruw -- only 27, it would take a monumental collapse ...
Jeter -- we don't like him, he's already 30, no way he sustains
Nomah -- we like him, he's just been traded to the Cubs, we can foresee a good decline as a 3B, same age as Jeter
Giambi -- questionable, coming off his lost season
Vizquel -- c'mon, he's already 37, he won't last much longer
Vlad -- see Cabrera
JuanGone -- those idiot writers will probably elect him
BJ Surhoff -- just here cuz I can't believe he was still playing in 2004

Clemens -- "lock"
Maddux -- lock
Johnson -- lock
Pedro -- lock
Schilling, Brown, Mussina -- closing in (oops)
Glavine -- very close but still 38 wins from 300
Appier -- see Surhoff
Smoltz -- closing in under the Eck exception (2004 was his last year as a closer), he had just 163 wins and 2400 K
Moyer -- c'mon, dude's 41
Pettitte -- maybe borderline if he hadn't just left the Yanks
Hudson -- far away but dude had a 700 winning %age
Smith -- stupid writers ....
Mo -- he's been great but he's already 34, 140 saves short of Smith's record
Hoffman -- already 36 and he's 85 saves short

The AL still seemed to have a dominance in "locks".

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
JPWF13
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogOTP April 2014: BurstNET Sued for Not Making Equipment Lease Payments
(2521 - 2:25pm, Apr 24)
Last: Rickey! In a van on 95 south...

NewsblogNY Times: The Upshot: Up Close on Baseball’s Borders
(6 - 2:23pm, Apr 24)
Last: Karl from NY

NewsblogOMNICHATTER for 4-24-2014
(18 - 2:22pm, Apr 24)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogCalcaterra: Blogger Murray Chass attacks me for bad reporting, ignores quotes, evidence in doing so
(12 - 2:20pm, Apr 24)
Last: cardsfanboy

NewsblogKeri: Slump City: Why Does the 2014 MLB Season Suddenly Feel Like 1968?
(38 - 2:19pm, Apr 24)
Last: tfbg9

NewsblogPelicans' patient Gallo hits three homers | MiLB.com News
(3 - 2:19pm, Apr 24)
Last: herb

NewsblogMatt Williams: No problem with Harper's two-strike bunting
(19 - 2:14pm, Apr 24)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogToronto Star: Blue Jays pave way for grass at the Rogers Centre
(9 - 2:13pm, Apr 24)
Last: Karl from NY

NewsblogJosh Lueke Is A Rapist, You Say? Keep Saying It.
(243 - 2:11pm, Apr 24)
Last: CrosbyBird

NewsblogMichael Pineda ejected from Red Sox game after pine tar discovered on neck
(91 - 2:06pm, Apr 24)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogThe Five “Acts” of Ike Davis’s Career, and Why Trading Ike Was a Mistake
(64 - 1:47pm, Apr 24)
Last: Ray (RDP)

NewsblogDoyel: How was Gerrit Cole not suspended? He basically started the brawl
(39 - 1:45pm, Apr 24)
Last: ellsbury my heart at wounded knee

Newsblog4 balls, you’re out!
(59 - 1:44pm, Apr 24)
Last: Sunday silence

NewsblogColiseum Authority accuses Athletics of not paying rent
(19 - 1:34pm, Apr 24)
Last: RoyalsRetro (AG#1F)

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread - April 2014
(506 - 1:23pm, Apr 24)
Last: Jimmy P

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

 

Page rendered in 0.9499 seconds
52 querie(s) executed