Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Friday, May 30, 2008

Presenting the All-2012 team

Back in 2004, I wrote a column entitled the “All-2007 team,” predicting who might be fantasy’s biggest studs three years down the road. It was a fun exercise, most helpful to keeper-league owners, obviously, but it was also designed to identify franchise-type players, guys with the most stability in the long haul. Some of the picks—Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and David Wright, to name three—were pretty on target. Others—ugh, Rocco Baldelli, Marcus Giles and Mark Prior—were out-and-out busts. I’ve provided the full lists (both first and second team) in the table to the right.

Well, today, it might be 2008, but that doesn’t mean forecasting forward isn’t still in vogue. After all, that’s what fantasy baseball is all about, predicting the future, right? So, in the debut week for Bruce and Kershaw, I thought it only fitting to repeat that exercise and see how both prospects stack up looking ahead the next few seasons.

Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 30, 2008 at 03:54 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: history

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. hscs Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:38 PM (#2799693)
The Amazing Carlos Quentin transcends fantasy baseball.
   2. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:40 PM (#2799697)
But has no spot on this team.
   3. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:44 PM (#2799704)
Who wins a game between the '07 squads? The A team, or the B team?

Antonelli at 2B for 2012 seems like kind of a stretch at this point, even as an alternate. He's really struggling right now.
   4. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:47 PM (#2799710)
The A team wins a series, but barely.
   5. Jimmy P Posted: May 30, 2008 at 04:52 PM (#2799718)
The OFs are interesting. Grady, Hamilton, and Markakis while passing on Bruce, Kemp, and BJ Upton in their primes. I know BJ Upton strikes out a lot, so that one I can see. But, Grady hasn't progressed last season or this one. I think I'd rather have Kemp.
   6. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:04 PM (#2799736)
THe Hamilton pick could end up looking really smart or really dumb in 2012.
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 05:11 PM (#2799750)
Will the blacklisting of Barry Bonds really last until 2012? I would think someone would sign him by then.
   8. Austin Kearns: The Spy Who Shagged Flies Posted: May 30, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#2799908)
So who will be the 2012 teams's version of Ryan Wagner?

Is this guy's name really Tristan H. Cockcroft?
   9. Padraic Posted: May 30, 2008 at 07:03 PM (#2799920)
There's no reason Utley's prime can't extend that far, and I'll go a step further and say that by then, he's being talked up as potentially the greatest second baseman of all-time.


Whoa! The talent is there, both offensively and defensively, but having his first full season at 26 pretty much means he won't have the career totals.
   10. RB in NYC (Now with New iPhone!) Posted: May 30, 2008 at 07:15 PM (#2799949)
I like Utley, and I know we have this discussion every time, but if he's taking "peak" to mine that Utley is still posting a 140+ OPS+ in 2012, I'll pass. There's only been 13 players to see signifigant time at 2B (i.e., 100 games or more) at 2B and post OPS+ of 140 or better at age 33 or older in all of baseball history.

Utley is a fabulous talent, but projecting something like that is asking a lot.
   11. The cushions are crowded for Edmundo Posted: May 30, 2008 at 07:34 PM (#2799989)
Utley is a fabulous talent, but projecting something like that is asking a lot.
It is asking a lot but Utley is still improving offensively at 29. If any 2B can, it would be him.

But as #9 said, Utley will not be in the best 2B ever discussion until long after 2012. I hope he continues his excellence long enough that he will be the poster child for a MSM discussion about pure-peak HOF candidate.
   12. Halofan Posted: May 30, 2008 at 07:40 PM (#2800002)
I would be impressed with his Crystal Ball had he picked 2007's ERA leader John Lackey back in 2004. But he did not so I am not.
   13. Charter Member of the Jesus Melendez Fanclub Posted: May 30, 2008 at 07:49 PM (#2800018)
This just in: Thom Brennaman reports that Chase Utley may be the GREATEST hitting second baseman the game has EVER seen.
   14. gef the talking mongoose Posted: May 30, 2008 at 07:56 PM (#2800029)
Is this guy's name really Tristan H. Cockcroft?


I'm going to go waaaaay out on a limb here & guess that he's white.
   15. Walt Davis Posted: May 30, 2008 at 10:53 PM (#2800282)
I would be impressed with his Crystal Ball had he picked 2007's ERA leader John Lackey back in 2004. But he did not so I am not.

I was actually pretty impressed with his 2004 starting pitcher picks. OK, Prior bombed out. But the rest are Beckett, Peavy, Greinke, Halladay, Vazquez, Zambrano and Hamels. He got badly hit by injury in only 1 of the 8, Greinke's emotional/mental issues to the side. And those guys are still looking pretty nice in 2008. Sure, he just picked hugely talented guys and maybe got lucky on the injuries, but still a nice job.

In the current list, I'm not sure there's a reason to prefer Longoria over Gordon, Zimmerman and maybe others ... at least not to the extent that he deserves "first line" mention.

Of course I have to keep in mind he's doing fantasy baseball projections and I'm guessing traditional fantasy stats. That might explain Rollins who I really don't think is going to be a particularly productive player by 33.

I can't really argue with the OF picks ... but at the same time, there's only one major HR threat there which seems odd. And that's Braun who at his very best will be Manny Ramirez, not a Sosa-Griffy 50+ HR type. Who are we missing? (Again, the steals you'd get from Upton, Young, etc. are part of what's driving their fantasy value.)

I really don't see the Verlander pick. His K-rate is not particularly outstanding (just 8th in K/9 last year, his only good K year so far) nor is his K/BB (and he hits a lot of guys too). I'm not saying he's bad but I'll be surprised if he's one of the top 6 starters in MLB in 2012 -- by ERA, ERA+ and even wins, he wasn't top 6 in the AL last year.

And Carlos Marmol is a god! In his last 103 IP, he's K'd 145 and given up just 55 hits. Holy f'ing crap! Those are Gagne-Papelbon type numbers. Granted, he's on pace for 100 relief IP this year which probably means his arm will fall off but man it will be fun until then.

Why there's endless clamoring about Joba to the rotation while nobody even seems to consider it for Marmol is a mystery to me.

Anyway, this article seems like it was written before the season started and not updated. Verlander, Gallardo (injury), Joba (as a reliever given the move to the rotation), Buchholz (performance), D Young, Cano, Towles, Howard, Butler are all guys you might be a bit more hesitant labelling as among the best in 2012 given what they've done so far this year. (Yes, small sample sizes should not change your projections much ... but someone like D Young hitting worse with even less power than last year has to be seen as a hint that he's more likely to come in on the lower side of his 2012 projection.

Anyway, this list isn't as impressive as what he posted from the last one because he's got so many honorable mentions -- he'll be able to claim all sorts of success in 2012. :-)

Now, where's Dan Uggla?? :-)
   16. Boots Day Posted: May 30, 2008 at 11:07 PM (#2800298)
I'm well aware I've excluded Troy Tulowitzki (27), but I'm still more impressed by his defense than his offense, as his home/road splits are troublesome.

Meanwhile, he put Stephen Drew on his best of the rest - despite the fact that Drew's overall batting numbers last year were worse than Tulowitzki's road numbers.

There are reasons to exclude Tulowitzki, but this ain't one of them.
   17. Gotham Dave Posted: May 31, 2008 at 09:36 PM (#2801344)
Shouldn't Darren Daulton be on the all-2012 team?

If They Only Knew

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
robinred
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogMatinale: WADJ: Wins Above Derek Jeter
(2 - 8:24am, May 25)
Last: Fancy Pants is braggadocious about his Handle

NewsblogHP: Baseball is leaving the human factor behind
(9 - 8:23am, May 25)
Last: depletion

NewsblogOT: NBA Monthly Thread, May 2012
(1773 - 8:14am, May 25)
Last: Famous Original Joe C

NewsblogBoston.com: Curt Schilling’s 38 Studios lays off all staff
(45 - 8:04am, May 25)
Last: Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein

NewsblogNeyer: New Yankee Stadium: A Review
(75 - 8:01am, May 25)
Last: Harveys Wallbangers

NewsblogFS Midwest: Streaker halts Cardinals-Phillies game
(2 - 7:57am, May 25)
Last: Justin 'The Cespedobear' T

NewsblogGreenberg: Cubs' Ricketts decries proposal
(750 - 7:54am, May 25)
Last: Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral Idiot

NewsblogRoy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com
(12 - 6:46am, May 25)
Last: Doris from Rego Park

NewsblogSullivan: Dan Haren Makes Mariners Look Like Mariners
(1 - 6:40am, May 25)
Last: The cushions are crowded for Edmundo

Newsblog12 Baseball Feats That Only Happened Once
(25 - 6:25am, May 25)
Last: Greg (U)K

NewsblogShawn Green to play for Israel in World Baseball Classic
(12 - 5:50am, May 25)
Last: shoewizard

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-25-2012
(1 - 5:33am, May 25)
Last: Tim Stauffer, Trot Nixon's Coming (Dan Lee)

NewsblogWins Above Replacement: Distribution and Rarity of Talent 2011 - Beyond the Box Score
(9 - 4:18am, May 25)
Last: bobm

NewsblogDodgers want to host NHL's Winter Classic
(15 - 3:07am, May 25)
Last: Greg (U)K

NewsblogOT: NHL Playoff Thread
(1731 - 1:45am, May 25)
Last: baudib

Buy MLB playoff tickets, plus 2011 World Series, 2011 ALCS tickets and NLCS game tickets. We also have Texas Rangers playoff schedule, tickets to Red Sox games and Yankees game tickets. Plus, buy Phillies baseball tickets, Tigers playoff tickets and the biggies like ALDS baseball tickets and 2011 NLDS tickets.

Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats

 

 

 

AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets.

Page rendered in 0.1889 seconds
57 querie(s) executed