When I first heard the Yanks were about the sign Nick Johnson and say goodbye to Johnny Damon last night, my mind immediately went into “If I were Omar, what would I do?” mode.
...• In that 24-hour window I call the agent for Mark DeRosa and see if he would take a two-year deal to be our left fielder. If he balks, I would call Boras back and see if Damon would consider a 2-year, $16M offer with incentives for a third year. If Boras laughs me off the phone, I shift the conversation to Holliday, while at the same time letting him know that we are close to pulling our offer for Bay, and may go with a Xavier Nady type for 2010 and gear up for 2011 (maybe, as ChillieJet say) make a run at Carl Crawford. This would not come as good news to Boras, because as much as the Mets stink, he needs the New York money, or the threat of it, to drive the market.
• At the end of the 24 hours, I either have Bay or I don’t. If I have him at four years, great. If not, I let my fan base know that I tried, but don’t want to give the guy five years. Either that, or I say something about patience and hope they buy it.
• Then I focus on DeRosa and Damon. Both are good team guys and both - while their annual salary might be a little higher than they deserve - won’t hamstring my payroll for more than 2 (or possibly 3) years. Really, I think signing Damon, while risky, is not a horrible move. It would give the Mets some personality, some veteran leadership and a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the order. It also wouldn’t sit well with some Yankee fans, which is never a bad thing.
Repoz
Posted: December 18, 2009 at 01:49 PM |
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1. bobm Posted: December 18, 2009 at 02:29 PM (#3416695)If you're Omar, I doubt you're the Mets' GM in 2-3 years. The Wilpons' budget constraints prevent him from spending towards a real "win now" drive, however.
No, but it is that stupid.
But is it idiotic?
If I'm Boras and Omar told me he was thinking about waiting until 2011 and going after Crawford, I'd ask which team he plans to be the Asst. GM at when he goes after him.
"Tiger Woods, citing new direction, accepts backup catcher position for New York Mets"
It all depends on price, of course, but Damon would be a pretty big upgrade if you let him displace Francoeur.
Even if he's a -10 LF, (and he projects better than that b/c last year was his only bad outing in LF) he's still a ~3 WAR player vs. 0-2 WAR for Francoeur.
If you can pay Damon ~$8M p.a. and save Francoeur's ~$4M, you're probably picking up ~2 WAR for $4M, which is a nice move.
I know the Phillies would love to see Damon playing LF for the Mets.
They didn't do too bad with Ibanez out there.
That's the first problem. The man-crush that the Mets' front office has for Francouer is too great. I'm not sure there is a right fielder in baseball they would replace him with. Well, maybe Roberto Clemente, because he is a Lati ... oh, never mind.
Could Damon and his noodle arm handle left field at New Ebbets? I think so, and I agree that you have to see the price tag before making any real declarations. Would Johnny Damon really want to play for the New York Mets, after spending most of the previous decade with winners in Boston and in New York? I seriously doubt it.
Exactly. The move would level the playing field. The real danger for the Phillies is the Mets sign Holliday, not that the Mets sign Damon.
This is assuming that he would be available for a contract similar to what Moises Alou signed.
It all depends on price, of course, but Damon would be a pretty big upgrade if you let him displace Francoeur.
Not worth talking about. French is entrenched in rightfield.
Well, which definite playoff contenders are looking to drop serious coin on a LF right now?
If the Mets offered 2/20 I'm pretty sure they'd get him. Maybe a lot less if they wait him out.
I don't know, it just feels like it would be kind of embarrassing for a baseball player to go from a Yankees team that just won the World Series to a Mets team that ... well, I'm not sure how to describe the Mets these days. Rudderless?
I'm a lifelong Mets fan and I think I'd question the motives of any baseball player who would go from the Yankees to the Mets if he had any other viable option.
Not a bad super-sub, but definitely shouldn't be starting in the OF.
I'm a lifelong Mets fan and I think I'd question the motives of any baseball player who would go from the Yankees to the Mets if he had any other viable option.
The motive is money. The same motive that drives 95% of free agent signings. These guys go where the most money is. There's no shame in taking the Mets money. It's just as green as anybody else's.
Realistically, none of the definite contenders, except the Yankees, have a need for Damon. He has to go to a possible contender, or take a discount deal to go back to NYY.
I'm sure he'd rather play for the Mets or Braves or Giants for 2/20 than the Yankees for 1/8 or 2/14.
LoDuca taught him everything he knows.
IIRC LoDuca's honeys were better looking too. Which is just sad for Tiger.
Entrenched fortifications have always worked out very well for the French.
If this is true, then the Mets have no hope until Minaya is gone. HTF does a guy with a career 93 OPS+ get "entrenched" in a position?
By having a 120 OPS+ hitting for you after his acquisition. I'm not saying it's the logical conclusion that I would support, but to throw up your hands in bewilderment at the thought process is ignoring human nature.
I also think it's a mistake to see him as unmovable, but if Frenchie puts up a 120 for this whole year, I feel like half the site is going to go Scanners on us.
That's the level of analysis that would make me conclude the Mets have no hope with Minaya.
Nothing chnaged when he came to the Mets except he went on a hot streak. His underlying stats (plate discipline, swing rates, contact rates) didn't change he just put up a very lucky .343 BABIP vs. his career .307 and his unlucky .281 with Atlanta.
Any team that can't recognize this is not operating in the 21st century. A front-office has to operate at a level above knee-jerk fan reaction.
Reyes SS, Damon LF, Wright 3B, Beltran CF, ??? 1B, ??? C, Pagan RF, P, Castillo 2B
or in terms of what would most likely actually happen:
Reyes SS, Damon LF, Wright 3B, Beltran CF, ??? 1B, Frenchy RF, Bengie C, Castillo 2B, P
These lineups don't cut it in any way, shape, or form, IMHO. Especially now that Lackey -- the guy whom I think they needed most -- is out of play, the Mets have to do their absolute utmost to sign Holliday or Bay.
If that somehow fails to happen also, and it comes down to Pagan or Murphy in LF, then yeah, at that point Damon starts looking good. But, YEESH.
FWIW, I dislike picking up a player who has a certain career level and (especially) late in his career finds a new plateau (first year of a OPS+ > 125). Home: .382 .533 .915 Away: .349 .446 .795 - And he is 36 Years old coming off his best year ever. Is he an upgrade, sure, but I'd rather take what I have and keep looking for a 1B or Pitcher to throw the money at rather than a player who peaked last year. He also has always suffered through injuries, at 36, coming off a career year, maybe he doesn't play through them as well! Youth!!
I don't believe that the Mets are stupid enough to think that French is now a 120 OPS+ hitter. The decision is more in the nature of: "he hits the ball hard, he has potential, let's see what he can do." Given that the Mets have a huge number of issues with the team (black holes at catcher, first, and in the rotation, weak at leftfield, second, and bullpen) I think they just consider rightfield to be problem #7 or problem #10 and thus not really worth focusing on.
Damon? Injuries? I mean he doesn't play 160 games, more like 140-145, he needs some rest at his age.
But, he's exceeded 140 G's and 600 PAs every year since 1998. His record is nothing if not consistent.
Why would Damon settle for only two years from a team that is considering giving three years to Bengie Molina?
DB
They can't be seriously considering that, can they?
Well, Winner Johnny Damon was just more or less fired by the Yankees, so I'm thinking yes.
Pudge Rodriguez and Jason Kendall got two year contracts. Molina is a better player than those guys. And this is coming from a guy who is going to be depressed if the Mets sign Molina.
The Mets haven't done a single thing that makes me think they operate at or above the level indicated by your middle paragraph. Nothing that makes me think they're trying to build a team that's a coherent whole, nothing that makes me think they're picking up certain kinds of players (groundball pitchers) to complement other kinds of players (quick, good MIs), and certainly nothing that makes me think they've even heard of the phrase, "small sample size". The only sense I've gotten during Minaya's tenure is "ooh, shiny FA acquisition. Let's get 'im!" Or the most rudimentary attempt to fill what look to be holes.
Assuming he'll get something like 2/20 whether you pick up Damon depends on what you're trying to accomplish for 2010 and 2011. If it's to keep LF from being a sinkhole without overspending on Jason Bay there are worse moves you can make. If you pick up Arroyo and Harang and Brandon Phillips in some giant swap with the Reds, think you have a genuine chance of making the playoffs and only have 10 million left to bolster LF so that you don't have to gamble everything on Pagan repeating his career year Damon wouldn't be the worst choice you could make. IF you figure his game transfers well to Citi what other LFers out there are decent bets to put up a 3 WAR season? I wouldn't do it but if I squint and the context changes significantly I can see the logic.
In other thrilling Met news Davidoff in Newsday wrote the team concluded that Bay was a better fielder than Holliday in part because Bay played some CF for the Pirates. Anyone want to let the FO know that was in 2005?
Amazin'!
EDIT: WAR doesn't count baserunning or catcher defense. If you think Molina is a 2 WAR player, dock him at least half a win for being just about the worst baserunner in the majors (he's saved from being worse by the simple fact that he doesn't get on base much), knock off another 3.4 runs for defense (a credible estimate from driveline mechanics), and figure he'll lose another half a run due to age-related decline, Molina is a little above replacement level. And that's if he's healthy. I just don't see the point of signing him for 2/10 when Placido Polanco was available for $6m a year, or when the difference in AAV between Bay and Holliday is going to be around half of Molina's salary. It just seems to me like an extremely inefficient use of resources.
Frank Catalanotto.
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