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Thursday, October 25, 2007

Primer Dugout: 10-25-07

Like a good neighbor, Dugout is there.

Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 11:56 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Phil Coorey is a T-Shirt Salesman Posted: October 25, 2007 at 12:07 PM (#2592864)
My neighbor thinks I am a littler wacky...

He asked thus afternoon why there was constant screaming at shouting at the television at 10.30 am?

It is hard to watch games here due to the time difference but we make it work as best we could.
These sleeping tablets are kicking in - bedtime,Go Sox!
   2. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:10 PM (#2592884)
He asked thus afternoon why there was constant screaming at shouting at the television at 10.30 am?
Poor Phil is going to end up watching Games 2 and beyond from a room with rubber walls.
   3. Mike Webber Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:13 PM (#2592887)
I have a theory I want to test out about disappointing pitchers. I have two problems, the data I want to use only goes back to 2003 - which isn't a big problem but limits the pool of guys that you could think of a disappointments.

Second, and most importantly, I need some suggestions of disappointing pitchers.

I think there are basically three types,
1) Injured guys - can't stay healthy enough - Kerry Wood.
2) Minor Stars that fizzle - Pulsipher, Izzy (as a starter), Paul Wilson.
3) Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't.
To me the first guys that come to mind are Jeff Weaver and Gil Meche until 2007.

Its really the third group I am focused on, and am requesting suggestions for this type of pitcher. If you agree with Weaver or anyone else listed later include them on your list.

Thanks for the help!
   4. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:22 PM (#2592902)

It is hard to watch games here due to the time difference but we make it work as best we could.


10:30am is hard to watch? Sounds easier than it is here.
   5. BDC Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:25 PM (#2592905)
Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't

The Texas Rangers' recent staffs are probably a rich vein of such guys. Brandon McCarthy, Kameron Loe, Adam Eaton, Robinson Tejeda. This is apart from the Ranger pitchers who nobody could have ever expected to be much good (Rheinecker, Koronka, Dickey, maybe Ryan Drese, although he might be in category 3 too) and other guys who have too many creds to count as "disappointments" but are prone to terrible years now & then (Millwood, Padilla).
   6. Thirty-two Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:59 PM (#2592951)
I think we're basically talking about the "he's got great stuff" guys. To me, these are the guys who, when you're watching them on television, appear to have a lot of movement on their pitches and seem to throw hard enough. I would second the Padilla nomination, and add Gavin Floyd. Unfortunately most Phillies pitchers never rise to the level of "disappointment".
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2592962)
3) Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't.
To me the first guys that come to mind are Jeff Weaver and Gil Meche until 2007.


Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth? Like an "Earned Run Median" instead of an "Earned Run Average"?
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:10 PM (#2592968)
Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth?


You could probably use Game Scores for this.

-- MWE
   9. Mike Webber Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2592971)
Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth? Like an "Earned Run Median" instead of an "Earned Run Average"?


Sean Forman and I traded emails about that once, but the focus was relievers rather than starters.
   10. rfloh Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:20 PM (#2592982)
3) Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't.
To me the first guys that come to mind are Jeff Weaver and Gil Meche until 2007.


Jeremy Bonderman?
   11. Super Creepy Derek Lowe (GGC) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:20 PM (#2592983)
Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth? Like an "Earned Run Median" instead of an "Earned Run Average"?



Michael Wolverton's Support Neutral stats account for this. I prefer them to ERA or ERA+ myself.
   12. Adam G Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:48 PM (#2593026)
Doesn't Prospectus have a Flakyness stat or something?
   13. Bad Doctor Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:25 PM (#2593068)
Vicente Padilla came to mind, but I think he was coming around before the injuries. Matt Clement before the injury, Daniel Cabrera ... that's pretty much all about control/command, right?

Most of these type of guys would seem to also be in category 2 ... they had the stuff to tear up the minors, and you heard about their ungodly stuff coming up, but they've never gotten it together in the majors.
   14. Honkie Kong Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2593077)
Kyle Davies/ Daniel Cabrera for category 3.
Bruce Chen/ Yarnall for category 2.
Ankiel/Prior/Avery for Cat 1.
   15. Mike Webber Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:06 PM (#2593133)
Ooh, Clement is good.

I'm split on the idea if Cabrera is a disappointment or not. I guess he is, I just still see him as a young guy.
   16. _ Posted: October 25, 2007 at 06:23 PM (#2593317)
I think you have to quantify "disappointing" a little better; it's a personal and subjective term. For example, I wouldn't call Kerry Wood a disappointment at all. Injuries have curtailed his career, yes, but he's had 4 seasons with over 200 Ks. In fact, I don't think he even fits the category of someone whose career's been ruined by injuries. He's got 1,100 IP in the big leagues with an ERA+ of 117. I know it's less than what was expected of him after his rookie year, but disappointment? I think there are a lot of former number 1 draft picks selling insurance who would kill for that career. Really, I'd throw the whole injury category out. That's just dog bites man.

I think Clement, and especially Eaton, are good examples. One method I'd use is to look at component ERA (or DIPS, or FIP, or the like) versus actual ERA over a significant period of time. Who are the guys who should be having more success but aren't?
   17. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 25, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2593335)
One method I'd use is to look at component ERA (or DIPS, or FIP, or the like) versus actual ERA over a significant period of time. Who are the guys who should be having more success but aren't?


DIPS might actually work well for this, because pitchers who underperform against DIPS are usually guys who have great stuff but who are hittable anyway.

-- MWE

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