Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Baseball Newsstand > Baseball Primer Newsblog > Discussion
Baseball Primer Newsblog
— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Primer Dugout: 10-25-07

Like a good neighbor, Dugout is there.

Betts, Bogaerts, and D Price(GGC) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 11:56 AM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Phil Coorey. Posted: October 25, 2007 at 12:07 PM (#2592864)
My neighbor thinks I am a littler wacky...

He asked thus afternoon why there was constant screaming at shouting at the television at 10.30 am?

It is hard to watch games here due to the time difference but we make it work as best we could.
These sleeping tablets are kicking in - bedtime,Go Sox!
   2. RB in NYC (Now Semi-Retired from BBTF) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:10 PM (#2592884)
He asked thus afternoon why there was constant screaming at shouting at the television at 10.30 am?
Poor Phil is going to end up watching Games 2 and beyond from a room with rubber walls.
   3. Mike Webber Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:13 PM (#2592887)
I have a theory I want to test out about disappointing pitchers. I have two problems, the data I want to use only goes back to 2003 - which isn't a big problem but limits the pool of guys that you could think of a disappointments.

Second, and most importantly, I need some suggestions of disappointing pitchers.

I think there are basically three types,
1) Injured guys - can't stay healthy enough - Kerry Wood.
2) Minor Stars that fizzle - Pulsipher, Izzy (as a starter), Paul Wilson.
3) Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't.
To me the first guys that come to mind are Jeff Weaver and Gil Meche until 2007.

Its really the third group I am focused on, and am requesting suggestions for this type of pitcher. If you agree with Weaver or anyone else listed later include them on your list.

Thanks for the help!
   4. Fly should without a doubt be number !!!!! Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:22 PM (#2592902)

It is hard to watch games here due to the time difference but we make it work as best we could.


10:30am is hard to watch? Sounds easier than it is here.
   5. BDC Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:25 PM (#2592905)
Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't

The Texas Rangers' recent staffs are probably a rich vein of such guys. Brandon McCarthy, Kameron Loe, Adam Eaton, Robinson Tejeda. This is apart from the Ranger pitchers who nobody could have ever expected to be much good (Rheinecker, Koronka, Dickey, maybe Ryan Drese, although he might be in category 3 too) and other guys who have too many creds to count as "disappointments" but are prone to terrible years now & then (Millwood, Padilla).
   6. Thirty-two Posted: October 25, 2007 at 01:59 PM (#2592951)
I think we're basically talking about the "he's got great stuff" guys. To me, these are the guys who, when you're watching them on television, appear to have a lot of movement on their pitches and seem to throw hard enough. I would second the Padilla nomination, and add Gavin Floyd. Unfortunately most Phillies pitchers never rise to the level of "disappointment".
   7. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:05 PM (#2592962)
3) Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't.
To me the first guys that come to mind are Jeff Weaver and Gil Meche until 2007.


Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth? Like an "Earned Run Median" instead of an "Earned Run Average"?
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:10 PM (#2592968)
Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth?


You could probably use Game Scores for this.

-- MWE
   9. Mike Webber Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:11 PM (#2592971)
Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth? Like an "Earned Run Median" instead of an "Earned Run Average"?


Sean Forman and I traded emails about that once, but the focus was relievers rather than starters.
   10. rfloh Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:20 PM (#2592982)
3) Guys that seem like they should be very good - but for some reason just aren't.
To me the first guys that come to mind are Jeff Weaver and Gil Meche until 2007.


Jeremy Bonderman?
   11. Betts, Bogaerts, and D Price(GGC) Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:20 PM (#2592983)
Is there a stat that can account for a pitcher that pitches great in nine outings but gets lit up in the tenth? Like an "Earned Run Median" instead of an "Earned Run Average"?



Michael Wolverton's Support Neutral stats account for this. I prefer them to ERA or ERA+ myself.
   12. Adam G Posted: October 25, 2007 at 02:48 PM (#2593026)
Doesn't Prospectus have a Flakyness stat or something?
   13. Bad Doctor Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:25 PM (#2593068)
Vicente Padilla came to mind, but I think he was coming around before the injuries. Matt Clement before the injury, Daniel Cabrera ... that's pretty much all about control/command, right?

Most of these type of guys would seem to also be in category 2 ... they had the stuff to tear up the minors, and you heard about their ungodly stuff coming up, but they've never gotten it together in the majors.
   14. Honkie Kong Posted: October 25, 2007 at 03:33 PM (#2593077)
Kyle Davies/ Daniel Cabrera for category 3.
Bruce Chen/ Yarnall for category 2.
Ankiel/Prior/Avery for Cat 1.
   15. Mike Webber Posted: October 25, 2007 at 04:06 PM (#2593133)
Ooh, Clement is good.

I'm split on the idea if Cabrera is a disappointment or not. I guess he is, I just still see him as a young guy.
   16. _ Posted: October 25, 2007 at 06:23 PM (#2593317)
I think you have to quantify "disappointing" a little better; it's a personal and subjective term. For example, I wouldn't call Kerry Wood a disappointment at all. Injuries have curtailed his career, yes, but he's had 4 seasons with over 200 Ks. In fact, I don't think he even fits the category of someone whose career's been ruined by injuries. He's got 1,100 IP in the big leagues with an ERA+ of 117. I know it's less than what was expected of him after his rookie year, but disappointment? I think there are a lot of former number 1 draft picks selling insurance who would kill for that career. Really, I'd throw the whole injury category out. That's just dog bites man.

I think Clement, and especially Eaton, are good examples. One method I'd use is to look at component ERA (or DIPS, or FIP, or the like) versus actual ERA over a significant period of time. Who are the guys who should be having more success but aren't?
   17. Mike Emeigh Posted: October 25, 2007 at 06:30 PM (#2593335)
One method I'd use is to look at component ERA (or DIPS, or FIP, or the like) versus actual ERA over a significant period of time. Who are the guys who should be having more success but aren't?


DIPS might actually work well for this, because pitchers who underperform against DIPS are usually guys who have great stuff but who are hittable anyway.

-- MWE

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

News

All News | Prime News

Old-School Newsstand


BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Guts
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Hot Topics

NewsblogMLB views Las Vegas as 'viable market,' Rob Manfred says
(24 - 2:29pm, Feb 24)
Last: Nasty Nate

NewsblogPrimer Dugout (and link of the day) 2-24-2017
(15 - 2:26pm, Feb 24)
Last: There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie)

NewsblogAre statheads “pro ownership?”
(13 - 2:26pm, Feb 24)
Last: danup

NewsblogOTP 20 Feb. 2017: Baseball in a Time of Politics
(1506 - 2:25pm, Feb 24)
Last: BrianBrianson

NewsblogKate Upton: No sex with Justin Verlander before games
(12 - 2:24pm, Feb 24)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

Sox TherapyThe Roster - Part Deux
(7 - 2:23pm, Feb 24)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogOT - December 2016 NBA thread
(2515 - 2:09pm, Feb 24)
Last: theboyqueen

NewsblogOT: January 2016 Soccer Thread
(277 - 2:09pm, Feb 24)
Last: Sean Forman

NewsblogBaseball Reference has a New Look
(93 - 1:39pm, Feb 24)
Last: Jose is El Absurd Pollo

NewsblogMike Piazza Learns How to Be an Owner. Of a Soccer Team. In Italy.
(122 - 1:36pm, Feb 24)
Last: What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face?

NewsblogInside Baseball with Jon Heyman: Final offseason grades
(10 - 1:33pm, Feb 24)
Last: snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster)

NewsblogDon Mattingly thinks pace of play can be improved by changing views on strikeouts
(57 - 1:29pm, Feb 24)
Last: PreservedFish

Gonfalon CubsSpring Training Open Thread
(13 - 1:05pm, Feb 24)
Last: Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist

NewsblogWhy Joe Maddon sees Kyle Schwarber as the leadoff guy in Cubs lineup | CSN Chicago
(9 - 11:38am, Feb 24)
Last: Moses Taylor, Unwavering Optimist

NewsblogPump The Brakes On Kyle Schwarber? Well, Actually...
(14 - 10:47am, Feb 24)
Last: Brian

Page rendered in 0.3977 seconds
47 querie(s) executed