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1. Neutral Milk Dotel (Dan Lee) Posted: October 15, 2012 at 06:11 AM (#4270708)C: Jack McMahon
1B: Mule Haas
2B: Carlos Garcia
3B: Lou Klimchock
SS: Charley O'Leary
LF: Mitchell Page
CF: Samuel Byrd
RF: Evar Swanson
SP: Jim Palmer
SP/Manager: Mel Harder
SP: Bob Harmon
SP: Sam Gray
SP: Mule Watson
RP: Bill Henry
Owner: Ted Lerner
The less-fun sequel to Missile Command: Jim Command
Fun Names: Tommy Toms, Dinty Gearin, Thorny Hawkes, Austin Knickerbocker
Which teams have had the most success in the postseason? And how does one go about measuring that?
Taking the relatively limited (albeit sensible) view of "success = World Series won," you can do the following: Assign each team 1/2 of an expected title for a pennant won before 1968, 1/4 of an expected title for a division championship between 1969 and 1993 (excluding 1981 for the split season), and 1/8 of an expected title for playoff appearances in an 8-team season. (Under the 2012 format, it'll be 1/8 of a title for division winners, 1/16 for wild cards. But we haven't awarded a title under that format yet.)
All that leads us to a Trivia Question: Can you guess the top 5 teams in playoff success over expectation? The bottom 5? And as an extra-special bonus, the one franchise (before 2012) that had exactly the number of titles you'd expect?
Net. The Marlins are #4 anyway, though, at +1.75.
Bottom five guesses: Braves (1 WS win in 15 straight division champs), Indians (although their problem historically is mostly just not making the postseason).
These are both tough because most teams seem to have stretches of both: the Red Sox are probably a big plus lately, but, of course, went decades under-performing. The A's have had stretches of great success in like 4 different decades, but gave back at least some of that in the Beane era.
The team that exactly met expectations, I'll guess the Mets.
The Braves are #27, -1.75. The Indians are neither top 5 nor bottom 5, and neither the Mets nor the Twins are the even team.
If so, the Natspoes were level peggy before this year.
Blake Wood of the Royals needed TJ surgery this year. The Cubs might want to be careful with Travis Wood. Just saying.
Barely, but yes, -1.375.
The Cubs have to be near the bottom.
They are, in fact, at the bottom, at -4.
Do we just toss 1981 out?
Nope. The Nats entered this postseason at -.125.
Just out of curiosity because I want to see if I'm following right; I get the Red Sox at +1.375 which looks to be top ten. Have I done my math right?
You have, and yes, the Sox are #5. They're pushed up the list largely by their 5-0 record in World Series from 1903-18.
The Pirates do OK; they're one of the 11 teams with a positive score, but outside the top 5. They'd do better if they'd pulled a title out of the Bonds years.
Bingo. They're actually in a tie for 28th, at -2.875 each; in fact, they have identical resumes, with 6 titles and 8.875 expected. Of course, the Giants will break that tie in one direction or another this year.
Yup, right on the edge. Would have been bottom 5 before '08.
So the top 5 is;
Yankees
Cardinals
????
Marlins
Red Sox
I think Kiko had it earlier, the Athletics should be third I think.
That they are, at +2.
Still waiting on the dead-even team, but the top and bottom 5 are filled out.
Orioles?
We're missing 4 of the 11 positive teams and I'd think they'd have to include Toronto, Arizona and Cincinnati.
Yes. 3 titles, 3 expected. (Changes this year, obviously; they'll be at -.0625 now.)
We're missing 4 of the 11 positive teams and I'd think they'd have to include Toronto, Arizona and Cincinnati.
Also yes, to all three.
Yeah, the White Sox surprised me too. Only four pennants before the split into divisions, two division titles from the four-division era, and three appearances in the Wild Card period; second-fewest expected titles of the original 16.
Unsurprisingly, all of the original 16 have more expected titles than any of the expansion teams. Guess which of the expansion teams has the most.
Stephen Drew has a $10M mutual option for 2013 with a $1.35M buyout. If the A's don't exercise the option, they have to pay the buyout. But if the A's exercise their option and Drew doesn't, does the buyout disappear?
what is the record for biggest discrepancy in hit batters for a season?
That's pretty impressive. Most HBP in the majors (by 25), fewest HBP in the majors (by 9). If my quick check of the numbers is correct, it's the biggest discrepancy in MLB since '98, when the Pirates were hit 91 times and hit 31 opponents.
Edit: Still looking, haven't found any other differences as large. Most years in the '60s, '70s, and '80s, no team was hit by as many as 59 pitches, which would make it rather difficult to exceed the Brewers.
The Angels would be my guess. A whole host of playoff appearances in the Wild Card era and they also made a few during the Divisional era.
They're a very close second.
what is the record for biggest discrepancy in hit batters for a season?
1898 Orioles: 160 HBP, hit only 61. Differential: +99.
Since 1900: 1998 Pirates: 91/31 for a differential of +60.
+31 or better has been done 69 times in history, 14 times since 2000. The White Sox did it in 2010 and 2011 (+45 and +40).
Bingo. 1.625 expected titles, which threw me until I remembered that they'd made the playoffs in '81, explaining the 1/8.
This year's Brewers were +59, not +31.
Bummer. +59? That's tied with the 1903 Giants as the second most extreme positive HBP differential since 1900. (McGraw managed that team of course, and he was on the all-time champion 1898 Orioles. Not a coincidence. IIRC, over his career his teams had a HBP differential of +700 over his years as skipper.
milwaukee's differential was 59 which is way at the end of the spectrum
thanks everyone for chiming in
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