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Monday, October 15, 2012

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 10-15-2012

New York Evening World, October 15, 1912:

GIANTS SHOCK HUBITES BY KNOCKING WOOD OUT AND WINNING 11 TO 4

The Giants administered a crushing defeat to the Red Sox this afternoon by a score of 11 to 4 and put themselves on an even footing with the Red Sox for the World’s Championship. Each club has now won three games and the deciding contest will be played here to-morrow.

In the ninth inning, Tris Speaker turned the only unassisted double play by an outfielder in the history of the World Series.

This was minor news 100 years ago today, though, because the nation’s attention was focused on former President Roosevelt, who had been shot the day before in Milwaukee.

Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: October 15, 2012 at 06:08 AM | 42 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout, history

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   1. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: October 15, 2012 at 06:11 AM (#4270708)
Today's Birthday Team has Babe Ruth's Legs, but alas, not his bat.

C: Jack McMahon
1B: Mule Haas
2B: Carlos Garcia
3B: Lou Klimchock
SS: Charley O'Leary
LF: Mitchell Page
CF: Samuel Byrd
RF: Evar Swanson

SP: Jim Palmer
SP/Manager: Mel Harder
SP: Bob Harmon
SP: Sam Gray
SP: Mule Watson
RP: Bill Henry

Owner: Ted Lerner
The less-fun sequel to Missile Command: Jim Command
Fun Names: Tommy Toms, Dinty Gearin, Thorny Hawkes, Austin Knickerbocker
   2. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 15, 2012 at 08:07 AM (#4270738)
   3. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:14 PM (#4270929)
So, I posted this in the Omnichatter the other day and nobody bit. Let's try it again...

Which teams have had the most success in the postseason? And how does one go about measuring that?

Taking the relatively limited (albeit sensible) view of "success = World Series won," you can do the following: Assign each team 1/2 of an expected title for a pennant won before 1968, 1/4 of an expected title for a division championship between 1969 and 1993 (excluding 1981 for the split season), and 1/8 of an expected title for playoff appearances in an 8-team season. (Under the 2012 format, it'll be 1/8 of a title for division winners, 1/16 for wild cards. But we haven't awarded a title under that format yet.)

All that leads us to a Trivia Question: Can you guess the top 5 teams in playoff success over expectation? The bottom 5? And as an extra-special bonus, the one franchise (before 2012) that had exactly the number of titles you'd expect?
   4. JJ1986 Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:20 PM (#4270939)
Are you doing percent-over or net-titles-over? The Marlins have to top the former list.
   5. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:26 PM (#4270952)
Are you doing percent-over or net-titles-over? The Marlins have to top the former list.

Net. The Marlins are #4 anyway, though, at +1.75.
   6. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4270991)
If you're using net, then I'd guess that the Yankees are an easy #1 (they've won like 2/3 of the World Series they've played in, right?). Other top 5, I'd guess, would be the Cardinals.

Bottom five guesses: Braves (1 WS win in 15 straight division champs), Indians (although their problem historically is mostly just not making the postseason).

These are both tough because most teams seem to have stretches of both: the Red Sox are probably a big plus lately, but, of course, went decades under-performing. The A's have had stretches of great success in like 4 different decades, but gave back at least some of that in the Beane era.

The team that exactly met expectations, I'll guess the Mets.
   7. JJ1986 Posted: October 15, 2012 at 12:57 PM (#4270998)
The Mets should be a little bit positive (1/4 for 69, 73, 86, 88 and 1/8 for 99, 00, 06). I'd guess the Twins are the even team.
   8. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4271014)
The Yankees are indeed a ridiculously easy #1, at +9.375; the Cards are #2, +3.125.

The Braves are #27, -1.75. The Indians are neither top 5 nor bottom 5, and neither the Mets nor the Twins are the even team.
   9. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4271019)
The Cubs have to be near the bottom. They lost a lot of World Series, and have performed poorly overall in the divisional era.
   10. JJ1986 Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4271028)
Have the Astros been bad enough to make the bottom 5?
   11. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4271030)
Do we just toss 1981 out?

If so, the Natspoes were level peggy before this year.
   12. BDC Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4271043)
The three most famous pitchers named "Wood" in baseball history all had resounding career crashes. In very different ways: Joe from a non-arm injury that nonetheless derailed his pitching career, Wilbur from being too fat to pitch way over 300 innings for a couple of years, and Kerry, we lived through.

Blake Wood of the Royals needed TJ surgery this year. The Cubs might want to be careful with Travis Wood. Just saying.
   13. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4271048)
But at least Mike Wood was a good acquisition for the Royals when they got him in the Beltran trade, right?
   14. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4271050)
Have the Astros been bad enough to make the bottom 5?

Barely, but yes, -1.375.

The Cubs have to be near the bottom.

They are, in fact, at the bottom, at -4.

Do we just toss 1981 out?

Nope. The Nats entered this postseason at -.125.
   15. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4271058)
To add a bit more detail on the Indians - their score of -.375 is actually the median. They've won 2 titles, and haven't made the playoffs often enough to push their expectations much higher than that. They've got the fewest expected titles of any of the original 16.
   16. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4271065)
Are the Pirates up there? They obviously don't have a bunch of draining LDS appearances like the Twins to mess up their numbers and they've got 5 (I think) WS titles which is probably a pretty good number. That run of LCS losses in the 90s might hurt them.

Just out of curiosity because I want to see if I'm following right; I get the Red Sox at +1.375 which looks to be top ten. Have I done my math right?
   17. Jick Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:36 PM (#4271069)
I'm guessing the Dodgers and Giants round out the bottom five. They're the ones responsible for making the Yankees #1.
   18. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:38 PM (#4271075)
Just out of curiosity because I want to see if I'm following right; I get the Red Sox at +1.375 which looks to be top ten. Have I done my math right?

You have, and yes, the Sox are #5. They're pushed up the list largely by their 5-0 record in World Series from 1903-18.

The Pirates do OK; they're one of the 11 teams with a positive score, but outside the top 5. They'd do better if they'd pulled a title out of the Bonds years.
   19. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4271078)
I'm guessing the Dodgers and Giants round out the bottom five. They're the ones responsible for making the Yankees #1.

Bingo. They're actually in a tie for 28th, at -2.875 each; in fact, they have identical resumes, with 6 titles and 8.875 expected. Of course, the Giants will break that tie in one direction or another this year.
   20. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:43 PM (#4271082)
Phils, not in bottom 5 but not good with -1.25.
   21. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:44 PM (#4271085)
Phils, not in bottom 5 but not good with -1.25.

Yup, right on the edge. Would have been bottom 5 before '08.
   22. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:47 PM (#4271097)
the Sox are #5.


So the top 5 is;

Yankees
Cardinals
????
Marlins
Red Sox

I think Kiko had it earlier, the Athletics should be third I think.
   23. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4271103)
I think Kiko had it earlier, the Athletics should be third I think.

That they are, at +2.

Still waiting on the dead-even team, but the top and bottom 5 are filled out.
   24. JJ1986 Posted: October 15, 2012 at 02:01 PM (#4271134)
Still waiting on the dead-even team, but the top and bottom 5 are filled out.


Orioles?

We're missing 4 of the 11 positive teams and I'd think they'd have to include Toronto, Arizona and Cincinnati.
   25. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4271137)
Orioles?

Yes. 3 titles, 3 expected. (Changes this year, obviously; they'll be at -.0625 now.)

We're missing 4 of the 11 positive teams and I'd think they'd have to include Toronto, Arizona and Cincinnati.

Also yes, to all three.
   26. JJ1986 Posted: October 15, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4271152)
That would make the White Sox the last one? That seems weird to me, but I guess they missed the playoffs a lot.
   27. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4271166)
That would make the White Sox the last one? That seems weird to me, but I guess they missed the playoffs a lot.

Yeah, the White Sox surprised me too. Only four pennants before the split into divisions, two division titles from the four-division era, and three appearances in the Wild Card period; second-fewest expected titles of the original 16.

Unsurprisingly, all of the original 16 have more expected titles than any of the expansion teams. Guess which of the expansion teams has the most.
   28. Danny Posted: October 15, 2012 at 02:58 PM (#4271242)
What happens to buyouts on mutual options?

Stephen Drew has a $10M mutual option for 2013 with a $1.35M buyout. If the A's don't exercise the option, they have to pay the buyout. But if the A's exercise their option and Drew doesn't, does the buyout disappear?
   29. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 15, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4271315)
i noticed the following the other day and forgot to ask. brewer batters were hit 90 times this season. brewer pitchers only hit 31 batters

what is the record for biggest discrepancy in hit batters for a season?
   30. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4271333)
i noticed the following the other day and forgot to ask. brewer batters were hit 90 times this season. brewer pitchers only hit 31 batters

That's pretty impressive. Most HBP in the majors (by 25), fewest HBP in the majors (by 9). If my quick check of the numbers is correct, it's the biggest discrepancy in MLB since '98, when the Pirates were hit 91 times and hit 31 opponents.

Edit: Still looking, haven't found any other differences as large. Most years in the '60s, '70s, and '80s, no team was hit by as many as 59 pitches, which would make it rather difficult to exceed the Brewers.
   31. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: October 15, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4271341)
Unsurprisingly, all of the original 16 have more expected titles than any of the expansion teams. Guess which of the expansion teams has the most.


The Angels would be my guess. A whole host of playoff appearances in the Wild Card era and they also made a few during the Divisional era.
   32. Tom Nawrocki Posted: October 15, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4271351)
The Rockies appear to be at least semi-seriously entertaining the idea of making Jason Giambi their next manager. That would be fun.
   33. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 03:54 PM (#4271352)
The Angels would be my guess. A whole host of playoff appearances in the Wild Card era and they also made a few during the Divisional era.

They're a very close second.
   34. SoSH U at work Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4271361)
I'll guess the Royals, as all of their success was during the more valuable four-team playoff era.
   35. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4271364)
i noticed the following the other day and forgot to ask. brewer batters were hit 90 times this season. brewer pitchers only hit 31 batters

what is the record for biggest discrepancy in hit batters for a season?


1898 Orioles: 160 HBP, hit only 61. Differential: +99.

Since 1900: 1998 Pirates: 91/31 for a differential of +60.

+31 or better has been done 69 times in history, 14 times since 2000. The White Sox did it in 2010 and 2011 (+45 and +40).
   36. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4271365)
If I haven't missed anyone, the last team before 1998 to have an HBP differential as large as this year's Brewers was... the 1905 New York Giants, who were also hit by 90 pitches and hit 31 of their opponents. This appears to have been something of a trademark of McGraw's deadball teams; the 1911 team was hit 85 times and plunked 29, and they were usually either at the top (or bottom) or very close in both categories.
   37. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4271367)
Harv - the 2010 Brewers were even more extreme, +33.
   38. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4271368)
I'll guess the Royals, as all of their success was during the more valuable four-team playoff era.

Bingo. 1.625 expected titles, which threw me until I remembered that they'd made the playoffs in '81, explaining the 1/8.
   39. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4271370)
Harv - the 2010 Brewers were even more extreme, +33.

This year's Brewers were +59, not +31.
   40. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4271377)
So I misread?

Bummer. +59? That's tied with the 1903 Giants as the second most extreme positive HBP differential since 1900. (McGraw managed that team of course, and he was on the all-time champion 1898 Orioles. Not a coincidence. IIRC, over his career his teams had a HBP differential of +700 over his years as skipper.
   41. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 15, 2012 at 04:13 PM (#4271383)
lots of numbers floating around and frankly i am trying to follow but if i glean correctly this year was at the extreme in baseball history

milwaukee's differential was 59 which is way at the end of the spectrum

thanks everyone for chiming in
   42. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: October 15, 2012 at 05:13 PM (#4271472)
If the A's don't exercise the option, they have to pay the buyout. But if the A's exercise their option and Drew doesn't, does the buyout disappear?
It almost has to, doesn't it? I mean, I don't know what the MLBPA has collectively bargained, but it would be completely insane if a guy could choose to walk away from a job against his employer's wishes and get a giant pile of money in the process.

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