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Monday, November 13, 2017

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 11-13-2017

Harrisburg Telegraph, November 13, 1917:

Dan Shay, former manager of the Milwaukee American Association Baseball Club, charged with the murder of a negro waiter [in Indianapolis] May 3, will rely on a plea of self-defense, it was said yesterday, when his trial started. When court adjourned at noon not a juror had been accepted finally by either side.

According to testimony given at the Coroner’s inquest, Shay and a young woman entered a local cafe late at night. It was deserted except for the cashier and a few waiters. There was some kind of a quarrel, all witnesses said, and Shay got up, pulled a revolver from his pocket and shot the negro waiter…The quarrel, it was said, was about the amount of sugar in a bowl.

Spoiler: This trial doesn’t go particularly well for people who like crazy things such as “justice being served” and “murderers being imprisoned”.

Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: November 13, 2017 at 09:58 AM | 59 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout, history

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   1. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: November 13, 2017 at 10:04 AM (#5574898)
A couple of players are badly out of position on today's Birthday Team. Wes Parker has a reputation as a magnificent defensive first baseman, but he's in right because Steve Bilko played three career games in the outfield. Johnny Kling is a catcher playing left field because Laird played a total of four career innings as an outfielder.

C: Gerald Laird (6.56 WAR)
1B: Steve Bilko (4.88 WAR)
2B: Alex Kampouris (7.16 WAR)
3B: John Kroner (0.27 WAR)
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera (25.93 WAR)
LF/Manager: Johnny Kling (24.91 WAR)
CF: Josh Devore (3.16 WAR)
RF: Wes Parker (22.9 WAR)

SP: Mel Stottlemyre Sr. (43.08 WAR)
SP: Pat Hentgen (32.67 WAR)
SP: Dan Petry (17.38 WAR)
SP: Ted Wilks (16.55 WAR)
SP: Wade Miley (8.3 WAR)
RP: Gene Garber (17.43 WAR)

Frontier League success story: Jason Simontacchi
Fun names: Podge Weihe, Nick Goulish
Top prospect: Chris Devenski
   2. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:02 PM (#5575042)
Trivia, in honor of the 2017 postseason (this should have been posted last week, but... it wasn't). 10 highest Championship Probability added scores by a hitter in a single playoff series. (All answers come from World Series play; the highest ever in an LCS is Francisco Cabrera, 1992, at #17.)

1. 1960s
2. 2010s
3. 1920s
4. 2010s
5. 1920s
6. 1940s
7. 1970s
8. 2010s
9. 1910s
10. 1980s
   3. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:04 PM (#5575044)
1. Mazeroski?

Schwarber as one of the 2010s guys?
   4. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:10 PM (#5575046)
No to both. (Mazeroski is #37; Schwarber is... lower than that.)
   5. Batman Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:13 PM (#5575048)
David Freese for one of the 2010s- maybe #2?
   6. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:14 PM (#5575050)
Johnny Kling is a catcher playing left field because Laird played a total of four career innings as an outfielder.


Not that it matters, but when you put a player so far out of position, his WAR is misleading. Kling had about 7.5 of his career WAR as a positional adjustment. As a full time LF, his WAR would take another 7.5 or so hit, taking hime from 25 career WAR, to about 10.
   7. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:15 PM (#5575052)
1. 1960s
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. 1920s
4. 2010s
5. 1920s
6. 1940s
7. 1970s
8. 2010s
9. 1910s
10. 1980s
   8. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:18 PM (#5575055)
George Springer?
   9. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:23 PM (#5575059)
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera (25.93 WAR)


I had no idea that is career WAR is so high.
   10. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:24 PM (#5575060)
1. 1960s
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. 1920s
4. George Springer, 2017 WS +.531
5. 1920s
6. 1940s
7. 1970s
8. 2010s
9. 1910s
10. 1980s

Springer is indeed why the question was asked. (He also got here differently than most of the other players on the list - he didn't exceed +.400 in any single game of the series; he just combined several moderate-to-large positives. Everyone else on the list but one either had a big Game 7, or a GIANT game earlier in the series.)
   11. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5575065)
or a GIANT game earlier in the series.)


In that case, Kirk Gibson?
   12. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:33 PM (#5575073)
In that case, Kirk Gibson?

Slightly too early in the series, and of course he had no other appearances. (#52 on the list.)
   13. Batman Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:34 PM (#5575074)
Dane Iorg and Babe Ruth? Of course, everybody guesses those two.
   14. djrelays Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:39 PM (#5575081)
Bobby Richardson?
   15. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:40 PM (#5575082)
Iorg in 1985 is #99; Ruth's best is #89 in 1926. (He'd be about 60 spots higher if he hadn't been caught stealing to end the series.)
   16. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 12:43 PM (#5575086)
Richardson's championship probability added in 1960 is actually slightly negative - his biggest games came in Yankee blowouts, and he had a couple of substantial negatives in close Pirate wins. (He does have a couple of positive scores in other years but nothing close to the top 10.)
   17. Ken Griffey Junior Bacon Cheeseburger Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:00 PM (#5575116)
Jim Northrup, 1968 WS?
   18. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:03 PM (#5575120)
How about Pete Rose, 1975?

edit: oh, wait. I can think of someone who had a GIANT game in the '77 World Series... Reggie Jackson
   19. esseff Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:05 PM (#5575122)
Ken Boyer, 1964?
   20. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:08 PM (#5575128)
Championship Probability Added is WPA weighted by the importance of the game?

In that case, Rajai Davis is probably #8 despite playing for the losing team in 2016. And Hal Smith is probably the 1960's guy - his home run the previous inning was actually more valuable than Mazeroski's, because it was come-from-behind, while the game was tied when Maz hit his.
   21. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:09 PM (#5575129)
Northrup is #39, Rose is #16, Reggie is #55, and Boyer is slightly outside the top 200. (Clete Boyer in 1962 actually has the highest score for a Boyer, at #115.)
   22. Nasty Nate Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:10 PM (#5575130)
Lance Berkman?
   23. Batman Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:10 PM (#5575131)
Willie Aikens would probably be at the top of the list for losers of a six-game series.
   24. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:12 PM (#5575132)
1. Hal Smith, 1960 WS +.655
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. 1920s
4. George Springer, 2017 WS +.531
5. 1920s
6. 1940s
7. 1970s
8. 2010s
9. 1910s
10. 1980s

Rajai Davis is #29; he was pretty unimpressive for the rest of the series.
   25. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:12 PM (#5575133)
1910's, Home Run Baker, 1911? The World Series for which he acquired his nickname...
   26. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:14 PM (#5575135)
1. Hal Smith, 1960 WS +.655
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. 1920s
4. George Springer, 2017 WS +.531
5. 1920s
6. 1940s
7. 1970s
8. Lance Berkman, 2011 WS +.467
9. 1910s
10. 1980s

Berkman is, in my estimation, the most underrated postseason player of all time.

Aikens is #13, and is indeed the leader among losers of a six-game series. (He trails only Mantle in 1960 and... one of the players in the top 10 among losers overall.)
   27. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:15 PM (#5575139)
1970's - Joe Morgan, 1975?
1940's - Enos Slaughter, 1946?
   28. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:15 PM (#5575140)
Baker is #49; he would be higher if the series had been more closely contested (the A's went up 3-1 and then won a blowout in Game 6).
   29. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:17 PM (#5575141)
1970's - Joe Morgan, 1975?

#60.

1940's - Enos Slaughter, 1946?

This is SO CLOSE. (Not in that Slaughter almost makes the list. WPA doesn't give baserunning credit.)
   30. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5575143)
This is SO CLOSE. (Not in that Slaughter almost makes the list. WPA doesn't give baserunning credit.)


I actually don't remember who hit the single on which Slaughter scored - just that Pesky held the ball and Slaughter did the baserunning.

I suppose the smart bet on who was most likely to get a hit and/or be the most valuable player for the 1946 Cardinals would be Stan Musial?
   31. Batman Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:21 PM (#5575148)
Willie Stargell in 1979?
   32. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:22 PM (#5575150)
Ray Knight, 1986....
   33. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:23 PM (#5575152)
Stargell is #15.

For what it's worth, the play-by-play on B-R actually lists the hit on which Slaughter scored as being a double. It was not hit by Musial.
   34. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:24 PM (#5575153)
1920s - Eddie Moore. Game-winning HR in Game 6, and he was in the middle of all three rallies in Game 7.

-- MWE
   35. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:27 PM (#5575157)
Knight: Right series, wrong team. (#96)

Moore: Right series, right team, wrong player. (#82)
   36. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:28 PM (#5575158)
Mookie Wilson?
   37. Batman Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:30 PM (#5575161)
Dwight Evans in 1986?
   38. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:30 PM (#5575162)
Dwight Evans?
   39. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:30 PM (#5575163)
Wilson is #45.
   40. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5575164)
Moore: Right series, right team, wrong player. (#82)


Got to be Cuyler, then. Wasn't sure how much the Game 6 HR bumped Moore up.

-- MWE
   41. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5575166)
Knight: Right series, wrong team. (#96)

Dave Henderson?
   42. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:32 PM (#5575168)
Max Carey, 1925?
   43. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:33 PM (#5575170)
1. Hal Smith, 1960 WS +.655
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. 1920s
4. George Springer, 2017 WS +.531
5. 1920s
6. 1940s
7. 1970s
8. Lance Berkman, 2011 WS +.467
9. 1910s
10. Dwight Evans, 1986 WS +.428

Evans is, as mentioned earlier, the only entry from a losing team. He was very good in both Game 6 (two go-ahead RBIs in regulation) and Game 7 (home run to open the scoring, two-run double in the eighth that put the tying run in scoring position with nobody out).
   44. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:35 PM (#5575172)
1. Hal Smith, 1960 WS +.655
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. 1920s
4. George Springer, 2017 WS +.531
5. Max Carey, 1925 WS +.513
6. 1940s
7. 1970s
8. Lance Berkman, 2011 WS +.467
9. 1910s
10. Dwight Evans, 1986 WS +.428

Cuyler isn't far behind at #28.

Henderson is just outside the top 200; he'd do better on a single-postseason list, because he obviously had his moments in the ALCS as well.
   45. Batman Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:38 PM (#5575176)
Gene Tenace?
   46. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:40 PM (#5575180)
Is Carey getting credit for Peckinpaugh's Game 7 error?

-- MWE
   47. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:43 PM (#5575181)
Also, out of curiosity, where does Casey Stengel show up in 1923?

-- MWE
   48. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5575183)
1. Hal Smith, 1960 WS +.655
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. 1920s
4. George Springer, 2017 WS +.531
5. Max Carey, 1925 WS +.513
6. 1940s
7. Gene Tenace, 1972 WS +.490
8. Lance Berkman, 2011 WS +.467
9. 1910s
10. Dwight Evans, 1986 WS +.428
   49. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5575190)
Is Carey getting credit for Peckinpaugh's Game 7 error?

Which one?

(OK, more seriously: Yes but he'd probably be on the list anyway. His overall WPA in Game 7 was +.404; his WPA from the error he hit into was lower than the WPAs from three of his four hits.)

Stengel in 1923 is #103.
   50. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:50 PM (#5575193)
Eddie Collins, 1917?
   51. Kiko Sakata Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:53 PM (#5575198)
Okay, I feel like this was cheating, but I looked up who had the hit on which Slaughter scored. So, Harry "the Hat" Walker for #6 on the list?
   52. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:54 PM (#5575199)
his WPA from the error he hit into was lower than the WPAs from three of his four hits.


I'm aware of that, but what I don't know is how much the WPA would have gone down had the error not been made.

I think the other 1920s player is Bucky Harris from 1924.

-- MWE

EDIT: The error bumped the in-game WPA by .05, without the error it looks like .09 would have been subtracted, so the difference is around .14. Might have taken him out of the top 10.

-- MWE
   53. Don August(us) Cesar Geronimo Berroa Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:55 PM (#5575201)
or Tris Speaker, 1912? Was he the guy who hit the ball that Snodgrass muffed?
   54. Ken Griffey Junior Bacon Cheeseburger Posted: November 13, 2017 at 01:57 PM (#5575202)
Harry Walker 1946
   55. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 02:05 PM (#5575206)
1. Hal Smith, 1960 WS +.655
2. David Freese, 2011 WS +.631
3. Bucky Harris, 1924 WS +.558
4. George Springer, 2017 WS +.531
5. Max Carey, 1925 WS +.513
6. Harry Walker, 1946 WS +.497
7. Gene Tenace, 1972 WS +.490
8. Lance Berkman, 2011 WS +.467
9. Tris Speaker, 1912 WS +.444
10. Dwight Evans, 1986 WS +.428

Speaker did not hit the ball that Snodgrass muffed. He did, however, hit a foul popup later in the inning that the Giants failed to catch, then singled in the tying run and put the winning run at third with one out. (Also, in Game 2 of the same series, he he a triple-and-error in the bottom of the 10th to re-tie the game that finished as a tie an inning later, which is why Game 8 was needed in the first place.)
   56. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 02:07 PM (#5575212)
EDIT: The error bumped the in-game WPA by .05, without the error it looks like .09 would have been subtracted, so the difference is around .14. Might have taken him out of the top 10.

If those numbers are correct, then yes, it would have. But that's not the way the game played out, and I'm not sure how to go about accounting for that without throwing off the balance of WPA entirely.
   57. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: November 13, 2017 at 02:22 PM (#5575228)
Mookie Wilson got almost all his .580 game 6 WPA for being at the plate as the tying run scored on a WP, and then hitting into an error which scored the winning run.

edit: OK, it lookes like he got no credit for the WP. But he did get credit for the error (+.400)
   58. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: November 13, 2017 at 02:36 PM (#5575242)
Mookie Wilson got almost all his .580 game 6 WPA for being at the plate as the tying run scored on a WP, and then hitting into an error which scored the winning run.

Speaker, as mentioned earlier, benefits from both an error that turned his Game 2 triple into effectively an ITPHR, as well as a misplayed foul popup during his AB in the 10th inning of Game 8 (not scored as an error because nobody touched it). For that matter, Harris's big play in 1924 G7 was a grounder that hit a pebble and jumped over the third baseman.

Sometimes you hit a ground ball and the other team mucks it up. They don't take the runs off the board.
   59. Hysterical & Useless Posted: November 13, 2017 at 04:16 PM (#5575358)
Mookie Wilson ... got no credit for the WP.


I was amazed that he managed to get out of the way of that pitch. If it's a HBP, tying run is still on 3rd, HoJo to bat with the bases loaded...

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