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Thursday, April 19, 2018

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-19-2018

Toledo News-Bee, April 19, 1918:

It is reported [in Boston] that Ed Barrow won’t last long as the Red Sox boss. He and Johnny Evers have had a blowout, Heinie Wagner replacing the little second sacker as utility man and coach. It seems Evers told Barrow that he believed 10 years at a desk had ruined his bench judgment. Evers is backed by several of the Red Sox regulars.

One can only hope that Barrow responded by telling Evers that all those Fudge Orgies and Nicotine Sprees had ruined Johnny’s judgment. Barrow won the 1918 World Series as a manager, while Evers had a .420 winning percentage as a manager from this point on.

Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: April 19, 2018 at 09:46 AM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout, fudge orgies, history, nicotine sprees

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   1. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: April 19, 2018 at 09:48 AM (#5656379)
A nice Birthday Team today. No weaknesses and a handful of All-Stars.

C: Brent Mayne (3.01 WAR)
1B: Joe Mauer (54.6 WAR)
2B: Alberto Callaspo (8.94 WAR)
3B: Whitey Kurowski (23.95 WAR)
SS: Spike Owen (12.51 WAR)
LF: Jose Cruz Jr. (19.45 WAR)
CF: Jackie Bradley (10.9 WAR)
RF: Rick Miller (15.6 WAR)

SP: Bucky Walters (54.16 WAR)
SP: Frank Viola (47.41 WAR)
SP: Zach Duke (11.9 WAR)
SP: Scott Kamieniecki (9.19 WAR)
SP: Joe Beimel (7.27 WAR)
RP: John Wyatt (10.23 WAR)

Manager: Harry Craft
General Manager: Dean Taylor
Fun name: Chick Shorten, Bugs Bennett
Occasional Primate: Mike Colbern
The Big Sweat: Dennys Reyes
   2. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 19, 2018 at 10:02 AM (#5656386)
Bryan Price fired

Bryan Price is out as Reds manager, along with pitching coach Mack Jenkins. Bench coach Jim Riggleman will be interim manager, with Double-A Pensacola pitching coach Danny Darwin joining the coaching staff. Pat Kelly, who was manager of Triple-A Louisville, will be the bench coach.

The club will conduct a search for a permanent manager later in the season.

Cincinnati is off to a 3-15 start after dropping 10 of its past 11 games.


Stupid move. I don't know anything about Price, but what do the Reds know now that they didn't 18 games ago? And if Jim Riggleman is the answer, you're in a heap of trouble no matter what the question is.
   3. shoewizard Posted: April 19, 2018 at 10:26 AM (#5656401)
Does anyone know if in season (2018) OPS+ numbers at Baseball-Reference are using the current single year park factors or the multi year park factors to calculate current season OPS+ ?

I sent question to BR but they haven't had a chance to get back to me yet, and I need to know for a discussion I am having.

FYI, the discussion is about Humidor effects at Chase Field.

Fangraphs went into the season deciding to peg Chase as a Neutral run environment for the purposes of calculating their park adjusted metrics.

Baseball Reference is updating their single year park factor as the season progresses. Two days ago Chase field was rated 104 Hitting/ 101 pitching in the single year park factor. After two low scoring games vs. the Giants the single year factor is now showing 99 hitting/ 96 pitching

The multi year of course remain unchanged.....109/109

It's important to know which factor they are using at BB Ref to understand the OPS+ and ERA+ numbers on the site.

Anyone who knows for sure one way or the other or who can find a link, thanks in advance.


EDIT: By the way, at the beginning of park factor calculations link, there is this paragraph, but it is confusing and actually doesn't line up with what I am seeing:

WE largely follow the method spelled out below. Historically, B-R has been using single-year park factors for recent years and 3-year park factors historically. We have changed that to now use 3-year factors by default for all years. <bold>Of course, the current season is only really a 2-year factor. The current year and last year.</bold> This can lead to some big changes in the numbers, from what had been on the site.


link

If the single year factor was using last year + this year, as shown on the site, then two games would not be enough to swing the factor from 104 to 99. Again it was 104 after 6 home games and now after 8 it's 99. So they appear to be doing something different than what is stated on the glossary page.
   4. Rennie's Tenet Posted: April 19, 2018 at 10:31 AM (#5656405)
Howie Haak traced his scouting career to idly picking up a phone in the Rochester clubhouse and giving Branch Rickey his opinions on prospects including Musial and birthday boy Kurowski. Reading the story, I couldn't help but think that Rickey obviously knew all he needed to know about Musial and Kurowski, and that he was in fact scouting Haak as a scout and had somehow arranged for that phone to ring when Haak was standing next to it.
   5. EddieA Posted: April 19, 2018 at 10:42 AM (#5656411)
3% of Brent Mayne's WAR in a 15-year career is from pitching one inning.
   6. What did Billy Ripken have against ElRoy Face? Posted: April 19, 2018 at 10:48 AM (#5656416)
I couldn't help but think that Rickey obviously knew all he needed to know about Musial and Kurowski, and that he was in fact scouting Haak as a scout
Pretty sure "Yeah, I think this Musial kid is going to be a good one" doesn't really tell you much about someone's scouting ability.
   7. Batman Posted: April 19, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5656426)
Pretty sure "Yeah, I think this Musial kid is going to be a good one" doesn't really tell you much about someone's scouting ability.
The first guy who answered the phone said "MUSIAL NO MAN OF HONOR, MR. RICKEY."
   8. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 19, 2018 at 12:22 PM (#5656489)
That Fudge Orgies and Nicotine Sprees story is a hoot.
   9. Hank G. Posted: April 19, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5656660)
Pretty sure "Yeah, I think this Musial kid is going to be a good one" doesn't really tell you much about someone's scouting ability.


Was it that obvious at the time? IIRC, Musial started out in the St. Louis system as a pitcher, until an injury forced him to consider other alternatives.
   10. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 19, 2018 at 03:59 PM (#5656668)
Musial began the 1941 season, at age 20, with the Cardinals C-level team, and hit .379 with 26 homers in 348 ABs there. That earned him a promotion to Rochester, which is where the Haak phone call would have taken place. Musial lasted 54 games in Rochester, hitting .326/.369/.448, and earning a spot with the big club by the end of the season.

So yeah, I think by that point, everyone in the Cardinals organization knew Musial was pretty good.
   11. Batman Posted: April 19, 2018 at 05:19 PM (#5656734)
Musial hit .426 in 49 plate appearances in his call-up in 1941. The only player with a higher average in that many plate appearances since then was one of the Craig Wilsons in 1998.
   12. AndrewJ Posted: April 19, 2018 at 09:21 PM (#5656834)
In three levels of professional ball in 1941, Musial had 85 extra-base hits. He was 20.
   13. stevegamer Posted: April 19, 2018 at 11:22 PM (#5656907)
That Fudge Orgies and Nicotine Sprees story is a hoot.


The "If I Owned Toledo" column may be even better.
   14. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 19, 2018 at 11:37 PM (#5656912)
Musial hit .426 in 49 plate appearances in his call-up in 1941. The only player with a higher average in that many plate appearances since then was one of the Craig Wilsons in 1998.


Musial was 20 for 47, .426. In 1974, Fred Lynn was 18/43, .419. Lynn had more PA, 51 to 49. You are correct, but Lynn was damned close in BA, and higher elsewhere. Lynn had a higher OPS, 1.188 to 1.023, and higher OPS+, 229 to 179.
   15. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 19, 2018 at 11:45 PM (#5656917)
In three levels of professional ball in 1941, Musial had 85 extra-base hits. He was 20.


In MLB in 1996, Alex Rodriguez had 91. He was 20.

Ted Williams had 86 XBH in MLB at age 20.

None of this is to dispute that Musial was a great, great prospect and player.
   16. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 20, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5657056)
In MLB in 1996, Alex Rodriguez had 91. He was 20.


That's true, but the 1941 National League was hugely different from the 1996 American League. Musial's 30 homers across three levels would have placed him second in the NL, his 14 triples would have placed him second in the NL, and his 41 doubles would have led the league.

Alex led the AL in doubles, but he wasn't in the Top Ten in either homers or triples (he only had one triple).
   17. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 20, 2018 at 11:48 AM (#5657061)
That's true, but the 1941 National League was hugely different from the 1996 American League.


Sure, but the point was that Rodriguez did all that in the majors, not the majority in the minors. Stan had only 49 PA in the 1941 NL. He hit most of his XBH in a class C minor league. How does the 1996 AL compare to the 1941 Western Association?
   18. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 20, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5657107)
Musial's 30 homers across three levels would have placed him second in the NL,


In 2013, Javvy Baez's 37 HR across 2 leagues would have led the NL.
   19. Batman Posted: April 20, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5657117)
At 19, Musial went 18-5 with a 2.62 ERA in 223 innings and hit .311 but with little power in 405 plate appearances as one of the youngest players on his team. BB-ref only shows 23 HR for his whole team (possibly missing some data) that year. His manager was Dickey Kerr, who won two games for the Black Sox in the 1919 World Series.

Anyway, Musial's power turned out OK after he stopped pitching.
   20. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 20, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5657159)
BB-ref only shows 23 HR for his whole team (possibly missing some data) that year.


But 77 triples.
   21. Tom Nawrocki Posted: April 20, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5657163)
A lot of those old minor league parks had dimensions that would seem unbelievable to today's fans. The outfield fences for the Daytona Beach ballpark might have been in Belle Glade.
   22. Batman Posted: April 20, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5657177)
Apparently the park the 1940 Daytona Beach Islanders used is still around, now known as Radiology Associates Field at Jackie Robinson Ballpark. It was the first place that allowed Robinson to play during his first spring training. I don't see that the 1940 dimensions are available though. It's 317 to left, 400 to center, and 325 to right now.

Here's a picture from around 1946, or about six years after Musial played there.
   23. Morty Causa Posted: April 20, 2018 at 06:56 PM (#5657259)
Musial hit .426 in 49 plate appearances in his call-up in 1941. The only player with a higher average in that many plate appearances since then was one of the Craig Wilsons in 1998.

Musial was 20 for 47, .426. In 1974, Fred Lynn was 18/43, .419. Lynn had more PA, 51 to 49. You are correct, but Lynn was damned close in BA, and higher elsewhere. Lynn had a higher OPS, 1.188 to 1.023, and higher OPS+, 229 to 179.

Upon returning from Korea in '53, Williams worked in 110 PAs, hitting .407/.509/.901 for an OPS of 1.410 and an OPS+ of 268. He was ready for 1954. And 1954 was ready for him. He broke his collarbone during spring training.

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