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Wednesday, April 03, 2013

Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 4-3-2013

Pittsburgh Press, April 3, 1913:

HOPE
By Hal Sheridan

Hope springs eternal in the baseball breast,
Until June hovers near;
Whereat it takes a long, sweet rest
And warbles of “Next Year.”

“Hope springs eternal”—sang an ancient bard;
Perhaps—within some towns;
But “eternal” means about two weeks
For the Boston Braves and the Browns.

The Braves and Browns went a combined 126-178 in 1913, but things got considerably better for Boston in 1914.

Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: April 03, 2013 at 06:15 AM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: dugout, history

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   1. Dan Lee prefers good shortstops to great paintings Posted: April 03, 2013 at 06:35 AM (#4402882)
Today's Birthday Team features one of the great two-way players in baseball history. Hecker threw 72 complete games in 1884 and racked up 52 wins in 670.2 IP while leading the league in ERA (1.80), ERA+ (170), and WHIP (0.868). Two years later, he won the AA batting title.

C: Ryan Doumit
1B/SP: Guy Hecker
2B: Quilvio Veras
3B: Mike Lansing
SS.Manager: Alex Grammas
LF: Wally Moon
CF: Gary Pettis
RF: Jay Bruce

SP: Chris Bosio
SP: Art Ditmar
SP: Barry Moore
SP: Darrell Jackson
RP: Koji Uehara

General Manager: Mark Shapiro
   2. BDC Posted: April 03, 2013 at 08:18 AM (#4402901)
I was listening to the Darvish game on the radio last night but got sleepy along about the sixth inning and turned it off – I'd done the same for Kenny Rogers' perfect game, and it seemed to work well then:) Nice recovery from the panic and despair of the loss in the opener, I must say …
   3. JJ1986 Posted: April 03, 2013 at 10:07 AM (#4402977)
Does anyone know a good place to get minor league pitching probables online?
   4. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: April 03, 2013 at 10:10 AM (#4402984)
milb.com has them - though they can be erratic, especially early in the year.

I was looking at Usa Today's 2013 MLB salaries ... there are a lot of omissions. Weird.
   5. Mike Webber Posted: April 03, 2013 at 10:51 AM (#4403022)
AG#1 - if you check in here today, I tried to email you through the site yesterday and got a bounce. Any chance you are going to the NLBM next Saturday - heck we should make it a BBTF meetup. Anyway here is the email I sent to the local SABR chapter last week.

Have you seen all the stuff they have going on at the NLBM on April 13? I'm
probably going to go, any chance you will be able to attend? Specifically
I'd like to hear Aaron Stiley's talk.

Mike Webber

With the upcoming release of the movie "42" there are several interesting events at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, especially on April 13. While this won't be an official KC SABR meeting, I know several will be in attendance, and in a pair cases presenting.

All the info is at http://www.nlbm.com/ but here are some highlights.

JACKIE ROBINSON: STEALING HOME AND HISTORY
Date: 04/04/13
Time: 6:00PM
Location: National Archives at Kansas City (near Union Station)
Contact: National Archives, 400 West Pershing Road, Kansas City, MO

Event Description
SWING INTO HISTORY: BASEBALL AND AMERICAN CULTURE program series The National Archives at Kansas City and the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum have partnered to present a program series this year on baseball and its impact on American culture. The programs will be offered at the National Archives near Union Station and Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. The series will continue during the 2013 baseball season. NLBM Vice President of Curatorial Services Dr. Raymond Doswell will explore the athletic legacy of Jackie Robinson, particularly his dynamic steals of home plate. The talk comes ahead of the national premier of a new film, "42" on Robinson's life

Doswell is a KC SABR member.



JACKE WITH THE MONARCHS
Date: 04/13/13
Time: 10:30AM
Location: NLBM

Event Description
KC SABR member, Historian and blogger (http://kcbbh.blogspot.com/) Aaron
Stilley will discuss the historic 1945 Kansas City Monarchs baseball season
which featured rookie infielder Jackie Robinson. Event is free but seating
is limited. Make a reservation by calling 816-221-1920 today!

CHRIS LAMB BOOK SIGNING
Date: 04/13/13
Time: 1:00PM
Location: NLBM

Event Description
Program is part of the SWING INTO HISTORY: Baseball & American Culture Series, a partnership between the National Archives at Kansas City and the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. Chris Lamb is a professor of Journalism at Indiana University-Indianapolis and is on the staff of the National Sports Journalism Center. He is the author of six books and has written work for The New York Times, Washington Post, USA Today, Newsweek, and Sports Illustrated. Lamb will discuss and sign copies of his book "Conspiracy of Silence: Sportswriters and the Long Campaign to Desegregate Baseball." He is also author of "Blackout: The Untold Story of Jackie Robinson's First Spring Training." Both books will be available for sale at the Extra Inning Museum Store.

Lamb is a SABR member

BILL WHITE BOOK SIGNING
Date: 04/13/13
Time: 3:30PM
Location: NLBM

Event Description
Program is part of the SWING INTO HISTORY: Baseball & American Culture Series, a partnership between the National Archives at Kansas City and the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum. Bill White was among the star Major League players of the immediate generation after Jackie Robinson. He was an 8 time All-Star for four teams from 1956-1969 and later became President of the National League. He was also a successful baseball broadcaster. White will discuss and sign copies of his autobiography "Uppity: My Untold Story About the Games People Play."

Other events happening too, Charlie Pride is coming to town, along with Harrison Ford later in the month for a private screening of the movie.

   6. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: April 03, 2013 at 11:01 AM (#4403036)
Cool, thanks for the info. Its hard for me to make it out, but I would like to come to attend. If I do make it out I'll give you a holler.
   7. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: April 03, 2013 at 11:04 AM (#4403039)
I was thinking about how low the Astros payroll is and, well, it's low. Here's USA Today's estimates of the top, middle, and bottom four payrolls for each of the last six seasons - as a percentage of the median, Houston '13 is the lowest of the bunch.

Rnk --2008--- --2009--- --2010--- --2011--- --2012--- --2013--- 
01  NYY 209.1 NYY 201.4 NYY 206.3 NYY 202.7 NYY 198.0 NYY 228.8
02  NYM 137.8 NYM 149.4 BOS 162.4 PHI 173.0 PHI 174.5 LAD 216.6
03  DET 137.7 CUB 134.8 CUB 146.6 BOS 161.8 BOS 173.2 PHI 165.4
04  BOS 133.4 BOS 121.7 PHI 141.9 LAA 138.5 LAA 154.5 BOS 150.7
Rnk 
--2008--- --2009--- --2010--- --2011--- --2012--- --2013--- 
14  HOU  88.9 SFG  83.0 SEA  86.5 COL  88.1 NYM  93.4 CUB 104.3
15  MIL  80.9 CLE  81.6 ATL  84.4 ATL  87.0 CUB  88.2 BAL  91.0
16  CLE  79.0 TOR  80.5 COL  84.2 SEA  86.5 ATL  83.3 ATL  89.8
17  SFG  86.6 MIL  80.2 BAL  81.6 MIL  85.5 CIN  82.2 ARI  89.1
Rnk 
--2008--- --2009--- --2010--- --2011--- --2012--- --2013--- 
27  PIT  48.7 WAS  60.3 TEX  55.3 SDP  45.9 KCR  60.9 OAK  60.7
28  OAK  48.0 PIT  48.7 OAK  51.6 PIT  45.0 HOU  60.7 TBY  57.9
29  TBY  43.8 SDP  43.7 SDP  37.8 TBY  41.1 OAK  55.4 MIA  36.7
30  MIA  21.8 MIA  36.8 PIT  34.9 KCR  36.1 SDP  55.2 HOU  22.1 


The '06 Marlins were the last team that was a lower percentage of the average payroll.
   8. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: April 03, 2013 at 03:26 PM (#4403375)
From the great Marlin DFA party, only Evan Reed was picked up (Detroit) - Gorkys, Cox, and Maine slid through. Bit surprised no one bit on Zach.
Whitenack to CLE on waivers.
   9. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: April 03, 2013 at 05:03 PM (#4403456)
A's snag Will Harris on waivers; dfa Josh Stinson.
Cubs sign Don Murphy to a minor league deal. I kind of like Murphy, as a scrub - Brooks Conrad with a better glove, but less bat.
   10. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: April 03, 2013 at 06:17 PM (#4403543)
Game of the day (yesterday): Rockies 8, Brewers 4.

OK, not really. While Rockies-Brewers was a perfectly good game (the system says the two teams have played the second- and third-best games of the season to date, which of course is less impressive now than it would be in June), there's a flaw in the system that comes into play here - while I have a bonus for no-hitters and perfect games, I don't have a good way to recognize games that are almost no-hitters and perfect games (without going through the play-by-play, which would be time consuming).

So, Game of the day (manual override): Rangers 7, Astros 0.

Actual text received from my younger sister (who does not follow baseball at all) at 2:55 PM yesterday: "What is the probability of a perfect baseball game?"

My response was basically "that's too complicated a question to answer via text." But since you already know what happened in this game (Elvis Andrus had two triples! Ian Kinsler homered! Lance Berkman had 3 hits and 2 RBI and didn't get injured!), it seems reasonable to take a run at the question in a format that allows a slightly longer discussion.

The basic answer is that it's the product of the odds of all 27 hitters making an out; you just have to find what those odds are. There are naturally dozens of factors to account for, but the two most important are the pitcher and the hitter.

In his MLB career to date, Yu Darvish has allowed a .294 OBP to right-handed hitters, and a .312 mark to lefties (that's an 88 OBP+ and 93 OBP+, respectively). He is, of course, a right-hander himself; Jose Altuve has a career OBP of .304 against righties. I have no real idea of how to combine these numbers into a legitimate expected OBP (I'm open to suggestions if anyone has one). The quickie solution I'm using is (pitcher OBP+)*(hitter OBP+)*(2012 AL average OBP). It should be noted that OBP does not account for all methods of breaking up perfect games - error, K/WP, catcher's interference, and quite possibly some others that I'm forgetting.

With those caveats:

Player  Bats OBPvR   xOBP  1-xOBP  3outs%
Altuve   R   0.304  0.263  0.737   0.401
Wallace  L   0.328  0.301  0.699   0.342
Pena     L   0.367  0.333  0.667   0.296
Carter   R   0.279  0.246  0.754   0.429
Ankiel   L   0.315  0.282  0.718   0.370
Maxwell  R   0.263  0.225  0.775   0.465
Castro   L   0.351  0.321  0.679   0.313
Corporan S   0.260  0.239  0.761   0.440
Gonzalez S   0.325  0.298  0.702   0.346 


Hope the table formats correctly... anyway, the product of the odds of each hitter making 3 outs is 1.43e-4, which is about 1 in 7,000. You can tweak it a bit by using projections rather than career numbers, but I wouldn't expect it to change much; if you use Carlos Pena's 2012 numbers rather than his career totals, you get 1 in 6750 instead.

So, what are the chances of a perfect game? Not a whole lot - even if you're facing the Astros. They are, however, higher than the chances of throwing 8.2 perfect innings and having Marwin Gonzalez break it up.
   11. bobm Posted: April 03, 2013 at 08:08 PM (#4403663)
[7] Does the Astros 2013 payroll figure include the $5 million to Wandy Rodriguez?
   12. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 03, 2013 at 08:25 PM (#4403679)
In his MLB career to date, Yu Darvish has allowed a .294 OBP to right-handed hitters, and a .312 mark to lefties (that's an 88 OBP+ and 93 OBP+, respectively). He is, of course, a right-hander himself; Jose Altuve has a career OBP of .304 against righties. I have no real idea of how to combine these numbers into a legitimate expected OBP (I'm open to suggestions if anyone has one).


Bill James's Matchup Formula (I think he called it the "log5" formula for reasons that I don't recall) is designed to answer this question. I use it on my website for some things and here's my writeup of it. Basically, you'd want to use the long complicated formula at the end of section 1. of the linked article (or not - I suspect what you did ends up getting you to pretty much the same place - heck, it might literally be the same thing if you worked through the math).
   13. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: April 03, 2013 at 08:35 PM (#4403693)
No, it doesn't. I don't trust the '13 figures in general, to be honest.
   14. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: April 03, 2013 at 08:38 PM (#4403701)
Roy Halladay, 40 pitches in a 3 run first inning. Just gave up Evan Gattis 1st HR in the 4th. He did record Ks for the first 8 outs.

EDIT: 3 1/3 innings, 95 pitches, removed.
   15. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: April 03, 2013 at 10:07 PM (#4403822)
Bill James's Matchup Formula (I think he called it the "log5" formula for reasons that I don't recall) is designed to answer this question.

This was what I originally wanted to use, but wasn't sure how to adapt it to the non-.500 context.

Trying the version you have there, though, I'm getting numbers that don't make sense. Actually, I ran the example you have listed there and got the following numbers:

W1'=.543
W2'=.475
P0=.567
P1=.797, which seems a little optimistic for a batting average.

If you can point out where I'm screwing up, I'd be happy to run the numbers with the better formula, even though I doubt there's much difference. Still, I'd rather do it right; the version I used is bad for the extreme-high-OBP boundary case (although it's fine for the extreme-low-OBP boundary case).
   16. Der-K: Hipster doofus Posted: April 03, 2013 at 10:13 PM (#4403831)
One last note on Cox: he signed a big league deal out if college and is guaranteed 850k this year. Given that and the number of options he's already gone through - I can see why teams that might otherwise be inclined to nibble passed this go around.

Similarly, while I like Arredondo as a cheap back of the pen get - he's getting 1.2m ... not big money, but maybe enough to tweak a team's thinking.
   17. Kiko Sakata Posted: April 03, 2013 at 10:35 PM (#4403851)
If you can point out where I'm screwing up, I'd be happy to run the numbers with the better formula, even though I doubt there's much difference. Still, I'd rather do it right; the version I used is bad for the extreme-high-OBP boundary case (although it's fine for the extreme-low-OBP boundary case).


You need to express both OBP (or batting average in my example) figures in terms of the success rate of the player. So, for the pitcher the number to plug in is 1 - OBP allowed. So, for the Darvish-Altuve matchup, the numbers are .304 for Altuve and .706 (1 - .294) for Darvish (i.e., Darvish's "winning percentage" when he faces right-handed batters is .706 - he "wins" the plate appearance against righty batters 70.6% of the time), and .320 for lgOBP, which generate W1' (Altuve) = .1705, W2' (Darvish) = .531, P0 = .1539, and P1 = .279.
   18. Eric J can SABER all he wants to Posted: April 03, 2013 at 10:41 PM (#4403857)
Ah, much better. Running it with that formula gives 1 in 8700.

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