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Thursday, June 21, 2012

Productive Outs: SHOULD OF TRAID BILL E. HAMILTON OR NO YES?

Last night I was googlin’ some stuff for yet another thing I was writing on [Billy] Hamilton when I came across a search result for a Bleacher Report story entitled: Trading Star Prospect Billy Hamilton Is Not the Answer. My second reaction (the first being “What in the actual ****???”) was “The fact that this article exists implies the existence of people who think trading star prospect Billy Hamilton is the answer!” Lo and behold, a few results down, I found this: Why They Should Look to Shop Prospect Billy Hamilton... nearly every single sentence of this thing is an absolute gem, so I’m going to annotate it here, in its entirety.

“Billy Hamilton is not a human being.”

We’re off to a good start.

“No, seriously—the guy is Thor. In fact, he probably had to turn down the role in this weekend’s super-duper feel-good flick, ‘The Avengers.’”

Now I’m not usually a fan of comps, because they usually do more harm than good. But as comps go, this is pretty good. First, it’s a cross-race comp, which I always appreciate. Too many scouts and analysts get lazy and comp all slightly built white right-handed pitchers to Tim Lincecum, or all athletic outfielders with power to Justin Upton. So comping Hamilton, who is African-American, to Thor, who is a Norse god, is bold, and I appreciate that…

· Does Hamilton have a rocket-powered metal suit?
· Is Hamilton a doctor who turns into a giant green guy?
· Is he a sexy lady?
· Does he shoot arrows real good?
· Is he a frozen WW2 vet?
· Is he the Norse god of war?

Thor is clearly the least wrong of all those.

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Last night I was googlin’ some stuff for yet another thing I was writing on [Billy] Hamilton when I came across a search result for a Bleacher Report story entitled: Trading Star Prospect Billy Hamilton Is Not the Answer. My second reaction (the first being “What in the actual ****???”) was “The fact that this article exists implies the existence of people who think trading star prospect Billy Hamilton is the answer!” Lo and behold, a few results down, I found this: Why They Should Look to Shop Prospect Billy Hamilton... nearly every single sentence of this thing is an absolute gem, so I’m going to annotate it here, in its entirety.

“Billy Hamilton is not a human being.”

We’re off to a good start.

“No, seriously—the guy is Thor. In fact, he probably had to turn down the role in this weekend’s super-duper feel-good flick, ‘The Avengers.’”

Now I’m not usually a fan of comps, because they usually do more harm than good. But as comps go, this is pretty good. First, it’s a cross-race comp, which I always appreciate. Too many scouts and analysts get lazy and comp all slightly built white right-handed pitchers to Tim Lincecum, or all athletic outfielders with power to Justin Upton. So comping Hamilton, who is African-American, to Thor, who is a Norse god, is bold, and I appreciate that…

· Does Hamilton have a rocket-powered metal suit?
· Is Hamilton a doctor who turns into a giant green guy?
· Is he a sexy lady?
· Does he shoot arrows real good?
· Is he a frozen WW2 vet?
· Is he the Norse god of war?

Thor is clearly the least wrong of all those.

The District Attorney Posted: June 21, 2012 at 01:57 AM | 29 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
Tags: billy hamilton, bleacher report, reds

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1. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 21, 2012 at 07:21 AM (#4162550)

I dunno, this seemed unnecessarily mean. The original article ("Why the Reds should trade Billy Hamilton") wasn't really that ridiculous or outrageous, especially considering the guy is just a Reds fan writing on Bleacher Report.

2. Dan Hirsch Posted: June 21, 2012 at 07:40 AM (#4162557)

I agree with what Cooper Nielson said.

3. ShoeGrit Posted: June 21, 2012 at 07:48 AM (#4162560)

By Illya Harrell (Analyst)

um....Ok.

4. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: June 21, 2012 at 08:26 AM (#4162574)

The Reds shouldn't trade Hamilton, because he's astonishingly awesome. But I can see why you'd think about it -- a speed guy is always one serious hamstring injury away from being mostly useless. But of course by that logic you'd also trade away every single pitching prospect you develop, because TINSTAAPP.

5. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 21, 2012 at 08:49 AM (#4162584)

The biggest problem with the first BR article is the assessment of his defense, or at least his future position:

He's got a rifle-shooter arm, but unfortunately, his hands are made of Play-Doh. And on a team that prides itself on defense, Hamilton is not a good fit. Who knows, maybe he'll learn an outfield position—but that is highly unlikely.

Of course, a guy with a good arm and superlative speed is not "highly unlikely" to play an OF spot. Maybe he can stick in the infield, but if not, he's a perfect candidate to switch to CF.

6. AROM Posted: June 21, 2012 at 09:21 AM (#4162613)

As far as Norse gods go, I would have thought Thor would be hitting in the middle of the order, swatting 70,000 foot homers with his hammer. Loki would be the leadoff man, so that's who Bill E. Hamilton should be compared to.

7. AROM Posted: June 21, 2012 at 09:25 AM (#4162617)

I try and check in on the statlines of minor league prospects at least once a week, and every time I do it seems like Billy has another 20 stolen bases. Now he's up to 80 in only 66 games. That gives him a shot at having 100 by the futures game. He's really improved from last year, where it took him to the final weekend to get 100.

8. Darren

Posted: June 21, 2012 at 10:07 AM (#4162643)

He's on pace for 200 steals. In June, he's got 23 in 16 games.

At what point do you have him back off a little bit? He's got to be putting his body through the ringer doing this.

9. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 21, 2012 at 10:20 AM (#4162649)

The purpose of Billy Hamilton is to flip out and kill people.

10. McCoy Wilfong for Money Posted: June 21, 2012 at 10:35 AM (#4162663)

At what point do you have him back off a little bit? He's got to be putting his body through the ringer doing this.

If they have no intention of bringing him up I guess they could tell him to slow down but otherwise they need to see what he can do.

11. Darren

Posted: June 21, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4162710)

What more are they going to learn about what he can do? Is it important to know that he can steal 170 bases in the minors rather than 120?

12. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: June 21, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4162730)

They should put him in mylar until Brandon Phillips hits free agency.

13. JoeC Posted: June 21, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4162749)

At what point do you have him back off a little bit? He's got to be putting his body through the ringer doing this.

A couple of 30-yard sprints and slides a day? Maybe I'm underestimating baseball's rigor, but it seems like an athlete's body could handle a whole lot more. Just thinking of what track or football or basketball players go through every day.

14. Dan Hirsch Posted: June 21, 2012 at 12:00 PM (#4162758)

They should put him in mylar until Brandon Phillips hits free agency.

That's not until 2018, since BP just signed an extension

15. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: June 21, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4162764)

What more are they going to learn about what he can do? Is it important to know that he can steal 170 bases in the minors rather than 120?

And also I can't imagine Hamilton's learning a whole lot by running so much. In high A ball he's probably not running on pitchers with good slide steps, with a couple of well-developed pickoff moves, with the ability to alter the tempo of their deliveries in order to deceive a base runner. You'd love to see him in the high minors matched up against minor league vets and fringe major leaguers and AAAA control pitchers and other people who are likely to have a good idea of how to deal with the running game. There's no point in his going for 200 steals in the California League.

16. Darren

Posted: June 21, 2012 at 12:25 PM (#4162770)

A couple of 30-yard sprints and slides a day? Maybe I'm underestimating baseball's rigor, but it seems like an athlete's body could handle a whole lot more. Just thinking of what track or football or basketball players go through every day.

Football is played once a week and has lots and lots and lots of debilitating injuries. Lots of them. Basketball is played 2-3 times a week. This guy is doing this every night.

I thought it was accepted wisdom that stealing bases was hard on the body, what with the quick burst of speed, the dives back into first, and the sliding, oh the sliding. That seems like an okay tradeoff in the Majors but not something you want to risk as much in the minors. Maybe #15 has the right idea--he's not being challenged or learning anything much at this level. Push him to AA and see what he can do there?

17. formerly dp Posted: June 21, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4162785)

And also I can't imagine Hamilton's learning a whole lot by running so much. In high A ball he's probably not running on pitchers with good slide steps, with a couple of well-developed pickoff moves, with the ability to alter the tempo of their deliveries in order to deceive a base runner.

That was my thinking as well-- as much as I love an anomalous statline, it seems like he doesn't have a lot left to learn at his current level. Surprised the Reds haven't bumped him up the ladder a notch.

And ARom's right-- "Thor" is not the image conjured by a speedy leadoff man. I know he's not in the movie, but Quicksilver has been an Avenger before...

18. Johnny Slick Posted: June 21, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4162788)

This is a clown article.

19. Bob Evans Posted: June 21, 2012 at 01:30 PM (#4162819)

I guess it's too obvious to call him "The Flash".

20. zonk Posted: June 21, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4162822)

And give up the Real Ultimate Power?

I think not...

21. Steve Parris, Je t'aime Posted: June 21, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4162824)

Griffey Sr. is the Blaze's manager. The org wants Hamilton to benefit from Griffey's tutelage on baserunning for as long as possible, though I have to agree that it's time for him to make the jump to AA.

22. formerly dp Posted: June 21, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4162865)

I guess it's too obvious to call him "The Flash".

Wrong universe.

23. Lassus Posted: June 21, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4162866)

They should put him in mylar until Brandon Phillips hits free agency.

Nice reference. -applause-

24. zack Posted: June 21, 2012 at 02:27 PM (#4162876)

Quick glance, in the last couple years in the minors, Raines and Rickey! both stole around 0.6-0.7 bags per game. Reyes, Lofton were around 0.5.

Hamilton was 0.75 last year, and 1.2 this year. Of the guys who have led the league in steals in the last 40 years or so, the only one who ran that much in the minors was Vince Coleman, who had 1.3 in 1983.

25. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: June 21, 2012 at 02:37 PM (#4162887)

Wrong universe.

Johnny Storm. Same "fast guy" routine, plus, *on fire.*

26. DFA Posted: June 21, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4162929)

#11: I think the value in him continuing to run is learning the pitcher, the pitcher's moves, etc. It seems like there is a line between relying on speed and learning how to steal, though I'm not sure that place is in high A or not.

27. puck Posted: June 21, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4162954)

Hamilton was 0.75 last year, and 1.2 this year. Of the guys who have led the league in steals in the last 40 years or so, the only one who ran that much in the minors was Vince Coleman, who had 1.3 in 1983.

He did not play enough in the majors to put up numbers but Donnell Nixon (Otis's brother) put up big numbers--peaked at 1.07 in 135 games.

28. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 21, 2012 at 10:36 PM (#4163205)

The biggest problem with the first BR article is the assessment of his defense, or at least his future position:

He's got a rifle-shooter arm, but unfortunately, his hands are made of Play-Doh. And on a team that prides itself on defense, Hamilton is not a good fit. Who knows, maybe he'll learn an outfield position—but that is highly unlikely.

Of course, a guy with a good arm and superlative speed is not "highly unlikely" to play an OF spot. Maybe he can stick in the infield, but if not, he's a perfect candidate to switch to CF.

I totally agree with this. Concluding that a 21-year-old guy with crazy speed is "highly unlikely" to be able to learn an outfield position is kind of bizarre, considering it happens all the time. (Tim Raines started as a 2B, right?) This shows that the original author probably doesn't 100% know what he's talking about. :)

But I think there's a time to go "Fire Joe Morgan" on someone and a time to just gently say, "I don't think you're right about this." The author of the original article doesn't seem to have an "I'm so smart, everyone else is so stupid" attitude, nor is he saying that Billy Hamilton sucks (except on defense). So going point-by-point and trying to ridicule every paragraph is just a little... mean, as I said.

29. Cooper Nielson Posted: June 21, 2012 at 10:38 PM (#4163209)

By the way, before this post, I was only vaguely aware of Billy Hamilton. I looked at his minor league stats yesterday and HOLY COW. I wouldn't trade him either. But maybe he's just the next Esix Snead/Donnell Nixon/Alex Cole.

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Thursday, June 21, 2012

Productive Outs: SHOULD OF TRAID BILL E. HAMILTON OR NO YES?

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