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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Saturday, November 25, 2006
Like the Red Sox I am intrigued at the potential of J.D. Drew. I simply love his swing and approach at the plate. Unfortunately, I am also concerned about how he’ll react when he gets eviscerated by the Boston writers and fans after missing most of a season due to injuries. Anyone who thinks this won’t happen based on the way Manny gets treated is deluding himself. Manny doesn’t miss as much time as Drew; Manny produces the gaudy Triple Crown stats fans love; Manny was a big part of the 2004 World Series Championship team; Manny is considered a lovable dufus by the fans. As a result, Manny gets away with his antics from the fans. J.D. is no Manny.
As much as I love Drew, this will not end well for Drew or the Sox. Don’t be deceived by the silence. The Red Sox are quietly but aggressively trying to close a deal for outfielder J.D. Drew, who opted out of the last three years and $33 million of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers to become a free agent.
...
His nickname in the Dodger clubhouse, according to one big league coach, was “Nancy Drew,” and according to one major leaguer who has played against Drew for much of his career, one Dodger player greeted the news of Drew’s departure by phoning friends in jubilation.
Jim Furtado
Posted: November 25, 2006 at 01:45 PM | 183 comment(s)
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These days, it's probably not accurate to use 27 as an assumed peak age. Half of players peak over the 28-32 period, with one quarter peaking earlier or later than that.
Only mildly. I thought the likelihood was something other than HoF for a 28-year old Manny.
Given subsequent events, I was clearly all sorts of wrong. Which I'm OK with.
Didn't Boras say that he was going to be Mantle without the injuries? Maybe it was just Mantle. Either way, I find that kind of entertaining considering how his career has gone so far.
Although I do like "dastardly Tony Womack".
A Manny/Womack LF defensive error-off would be quality entertainment though.
Clearly, Manny's actual opposite wouldn't stick in the majors. Scott Podsednik? Jason Tyner?
pretending that Drew could replace him, even in part, is ludicrous.
Drew: 20.6
Ramirez: 20.0
Ramirez: 20.0"
I've said this before and I don't expect alot of people to agree with me, but the pairing of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz is greater then the sum of their individual numbers. As a Yankee fan, I would love to see Drew replace Manny, even if he is as good because of his overall game. So would every pitcher in the AL East.
Quite the contrary, but treating Manny as irreplaceable is what's ludicrous. He's a great hitter and bad defender. That type of player can be replaced (by a good hitter/good defender, for example). Drew could certainly replace him 'in part' and possibly in full. The warp totals above show that pretty clearly.
I've said this before and I don't expect alot of people to agree with me, but the pairing of Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz is greater then the sum of their individual numbers. As a Yankee fan, I would love to see Drew replace Manny, even if he is as good because of his overall game. So would every pitcher in the AL East.
I think this is more psychological than anything. Watching players like Manny hit is so scary for an opponent in a way that a defensive player cannot inspire fear. For example, I know that Sheffield doesn't hit .500, but when he's waggling his bat up there, it sure seems like he does.
Substituting Drew for Manny could make the Sox better--even though I'm becoming more and more convinced that they should not try to find out.
And they won't. But what they might try and find out is whether or not Drew + whatever Manny would fetch could replace Manny. Again, this will not be a salary dump and there is no urgency for the Red Sox to trade him. But I get the sense the Sox think they have a chance to really set themselves up for both the present and the future by subtracting Manny and adding an MLB-ready player or two plus a prospect, Matsuzaka, Drew and Lugo.
Of course it is, but I also think it's pyschological for the pitchers and I think that probably nets positive gains for the Sox.
and at this point, with only 2 years left on his contract, Manny is currently a better value than JD Drew is likely to be.
it'd be foolish to trade him, and then end up with an oft injured good but not great player who'll likely be no better than average when his 5-6 year contract is over.
Drew, in what we should expect from him, posted a .300 EQA.
one is a good player, a nice piece to add.
the other is the heart of the offense alongside Ortiz.
pretending that Drew could replace him, even in part, is ludicrous.
A measure of overall quality generally regarded as accurate on some level suggests that it is not ludicrous, but in fact prudent. The truth is probably somewhere in between but clearly the assertion that Drew might be able to replace Manny is not "ludicrous" as you state.
that's still better than Drew's best ever EQA. which was, of course, in an injury shortened season.
Drew is a player that BTF readers traditionally massively overrate.
they're a nice component part of a team, but they're not anything more than a star.
i'm starting to feel like Karl Magnus, so i'll stop now.
i think my position is apparent ;)
...
Manny in a "not his best year" had a .342 EQA.
Drew, in what we should expect from him, posted a .300 EQA.
one is a good player, a nice piece to add.
the other is the heart of the offense alongside Ortiz.
...
Drew is a player that BTF readers traditionally massively overrate.
they're a nice component part of a team, but they're not anything more than a star.
Can we at least acknowledge the difference in defense? Those WARP #s posted by Sully use BPro's defensive ratings, which are much kinder to Manny than UZR and Dial's #s. Despite that, they rate Drew as Manny's equal over the past three years, even though Drew has missed a big chunk of 05. Yet somehow, it's the younger, cheaper Brocktoon that is being overrated?
Frankly, I find all of your doubts in Brocktoon quite troubling.
When you bid against others for services, part of the idea is figuring out how much others are likely to pay.
If I really wanted a Wily Mo Pena autographed bat on ebay (and who doesn't?), would it matter if I bid $8,000 and the second-place guy bid $4,000? Maybe not to me, but it certainly would to the WMP bat seller.
No it wouldn't. That isn't how eBay works. The winning bidder pays only 1 increment higher than the second place bidder. IOW, if your bid of $10 for a CD is the high bid, eBay will allow me to bid $11 or more. If I bid $15, and no one else bids, I win with a bid of $11.
BRAR FRAR Year
Drew 55 15 2004
Manny 62 1 2004
Drew 22 5 2005
Manny 62 1 2005
Drew 27 23 2006
Manny 63 -5 2006
Drew 32 15 WAvg
Manny 62 -2 WAvg
The erasure of difference between Manny and Drew over the last several years is both dependent on a 17 run defensive difference and on weighting Drew's career 2004 as heavily as more recent years.
Even using BPro's stats and specially cherry-picked endpoints, with no league adjustment, there's a solid 10-15 run gap between Manny and Drew. I figure it's closer to 20 runs. I see no reason for the Sox to give up ~2 wins in the outfield.
<a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pettiga01.shtml">Gary Pettis</h>?
Gary Pettis.
He could catch it. I wonder what his UZR/dial #'s would have looked like.
BRAR FRAR Year
Drew 72 15 2004
Manny 62 1 2004
Drew 30 5 2005
Manny 62 1 2005
Drew 43 23 2006
Manny 63 -5 2006
Drew 46 15 WAvg
Manny 62 -2 WAvg
Rather, the difference is about nil, based on Drew's defensive superiority. This is still a function of cherry-picking and skipping the league adjustment, but I think I'd need to cherry-pick myself to get the difference up to 2 wins. (Adding 2003 to the spreadsheet, for example, gives Manny a 5-run advantage.)
Of course, the difference is variance is profoundly striking. The overall comparison closer than I originally thought, but I still see no reason to want to replace Manny with Drew - because at the moment, Drew is replacing parts of Coco and Wily Mo, which are most certainly worse than Manny by quite a bit.
- I think Drew would be a very good addition whether or not Manny is on the roster.
- The notion that Drew could approximate Ramirez, given available data and their respective ages, is not "ludicrous."
- I think the most prudent thing to do is to net MLB-ready talent in addition to prospects in any Manny deal so as to close whatever gap may exist in "downgrading" to Drew.
JD Drew would seriously fortify the OF situation, no matter what the Sox do with Manny. Given the recent injuries of all the Sox OFs and Drew, mixing and matching is pretty much a given. And if the right deal comes up for any one of the current Sox OF, you may be able to better the team that way.
JD Drew will probably cost too much, but he will mark a major upgrade to the current Sox roster, more than any FA I can think of (with the possible exception of Zito or Schmidt, but those are guys are going to get huge contracts, too, and I think the Sox should look to upgrade other parts of the roster at this point than the starting staff-- assuming they get this Matsuzaka deal done).
I don't think there are many teams that look at $35M (isn't it a bit more?) as a "measley" expenditure. Manny went unclaimed when put on waivers and since then has aged and either become somewhat brittle or a 1st class malingerer. I'm going to be surprised if anyone gives up "considerable value" to take on the final years of "Manny Being Manny". That's even more so if the reports are true that Manny would seek a contract extension for agreeing to a trade.
If you are right, no biggie, the Sox hang onto Manny. Not a bad position to be in.
But if Carlos Lee can command $100 million over 6 years, how can $35 million over 2 (with two team options to boot) not be a dream come true for some team?
Lee is as bad a fielder as Ramirez is, and isn't even close to the hitter.
Pos Player RCAA POS-ADJ DEF BASE RUNNING PM-SLWTSLF Manny Ramirez 60 -7 -18 -3.3 31
RF J.D. Drew 28 -8 4 2.4 27
LF Alfonso Soriano 34 -11 2 1.5 26
CF Gary Matthews 25 1 -4 2.1 24
LF Carlos Lee 23 -11 -4 0.6 9
CF Juan Pierre -16 1 3 5.1 -7
btw: this is not a projection... just a look at last year.
btw: when I say I rate - I really mean I add up numbers compiled by other people.
Which numbers are you using for your different components? or should I wait for the article? (what's BBQB by the way?)
What's the poor man's method for defense numbers?
Pos Player RCAA POS-ADJ DEF BASE RUNNING PM-SLWTSLF Manny Ramirez 60 -7 -18 -3.3 31
RF J.D. Drew 28 -8 4 2.4 27
LF Alfonso Soriano 34 -11 2 1.5 26
CF Gary Matthews 25 1 -4 2.1 24
CF Carlos Lee 23 -11 -4 0.6 9
CF Juan Pierre -16 1 3 5.1 -7
Dan - BBQB - Baseball Quote Blog
Def: Rally's Def projections, I know they aren't one year numbers but I think do to all the noise around defensive numbers even to get a players 1 year expected value you need to regress a ton.
Pos-Adj: My own.
RCAA: Lee Sinins
Baserunning: Bill James Handbook.
The idea isn't to be perfect - but to be more meaningful than VORP or win shares.
Baserunning also has my a conversion from bases to runs. Anyway more information when I right the article.
Moreso than Ortiz, moreso than Nomar in his prime, the unbalanced schedule means that other than a Red Sox fan, I've seen Manny bat about as much as anyone else. I don't care if they paid him $100 zillion. As a fan who pays for his own team only indirectly and other teams not so much, the value he has brought to Yankee/Sox games is more than any mere movie villain could, for me.
What kind of wig?
That aside, why isn't everyone looking at this as a chance to replace Coco instead of Manny? I'm going to hazard a guess without running the numbers, but I think Manny adds more to the team than Crisp does, and the "attractiveness" of Manny's contract in this market has increased just as much for Boston as it has for other teams. Heck, this market has made everyone's contract more palatable... even Coco's.
Me, I like having Manny/Crisp/Drew with WMP to fill in when one of them inevitably goes down. And I do like Crisp, really I do. But if Drew is coming in to replace someone, it really should be Coco.
Is there a type of hitter from the left side who benefits significantly from Fenway? A Boggs or Mueller type?
If so, to what extent is Drew also that type of hitter?
Drew's hit chart for 2006 at Dodger Stadium shows most of his HRs going to right, and most of his doubles going to left. His flyouts were all over. If I overlay the Dodger Stadium flyouts on Fenway I see another 3-6 hits (either 2Bs or HRs) at home, mostly to left, and maybe on one Chavez Ravine foulout he'd stay alive. I'd think most of his Dodger Stadium doubles will remain doubles, with an unknown number becoming HRs. Since most of his Dodger Stadium HRs were to straightaway right, I don't think he'd lose many with the move to Fenway, all other things being equal.
Small sample, and with crude measurements, but I would think he'd benefit. Anyone whose power is to right but can to a lesser extent muscle the ball the other way should be a good candidate.
Does this kind of analysis really show anything? I'm not asking to be snarky, I'm genuinely curious.
The first time I really saw this was this Crisp last year, when people were predicting that something like 20 of his doubles in Jacobs Field would have been homers in Fenway. We all know how his year turned out, so obviously I have some skepticism about transferring a player's hit chart from one park to another.
When J.D. gets an inside fastball to pull, he can absolutely kill it. He'll put his standard compact, pretty swing on it, and you'll be floored when it lands in the upper deck 500' away. Never seen a guy capable of so effortlessly putting up a tape measure shot like that.
Well, since those are all pretty much true of Sheff we should just ask what he got in a trade...oh, wait, that shows the exact opposite of what you are suggesting, doesn't it?
If you think Manny being on waivers in 2003 has much relevance today, I'd suggest you aren't paying much attention to what's going on salary-wise.
Mister High Standards, I don't understand these....is it some combination of position value and defense? Why are Soriano and Lee different than Manny?
I don't think it's fair to assume that the three-year stats were intentionally cherry-picked to favor Drew. Three years of stats seem to be standard amount of time that people look back at a player's record when talking about his future. If anything, it's more arbitrary for you to want to go back 5 because those years favor Manny.
You're right that Drew's projection would not be as good as Manny's for the reasons that you stated. But that's not really being discussed here. The comparison of the two came up to rebut the notion that it was impossible to even somewhat replace Manny. I think they make that case very well.
you can do a "Save As" ... below the spot for the file name there is a spot to select a file format. there are three types of text files you can select there: one is tab-delimitted, one is comma-delimitted and one is spaced out. ... that's probably not easier though.
They have a different replacement level baseline - that doesn't make them kinder when used for comparison.
I'm saying that they're kinder because BPro's fielding numbers have Manny at about -11/year vs. the -20/year that UZR/Dial/Rally has him at. Meanwhile, IIRC, those latter systems have Drew at about the same +4/year that BPro has him at. So, by being kind, I meant that BPro's numbers showed Manny being only 15 runs a year worse than Drew, instead of the 24 runs worse that they other systems say. (Most of the above numbers are from memory. So please correct me if I'm off.)
I'd actually want the Red Sox to kick in a good prospect to do this but could understand if the Red Sox wouldn't do it either. Just trying to spark some discussion.
Heilman would certainly help right now, but the Sox picked up Wily Mo believing in his upside. I don't see why anything last year would have diminished that belief. Heilman, meanwhile, is a 27-year-old above-average reliever. Helpful now, without question, but not likely a long-term piece. Or do people see bigger things for Heilman? I know he was a big-shot prospect once upon a time.
Not that the Sox need to trade Manny if they get Drew. I don't even think they should plan on it. They should just keep their options open.
Some people think he can be an above average starter.
2.97 ERA, 154.2 IP, 146/53 k/bb, 3.00 fips-ERA.
He's got a fastball that can hit 95 but usually sits at 93 and an excellent changeup. I think he could close and that's the role I think the Sox would want for him if they did trade for him.
Heilman wants to be a starter but we haven't really seen if he has that third pitch that would make him a solid middle of the rotation starter. He did show flashes last season as a starter but the Mets decided they were better with him in the bullpen.
I'm not sure what to think of Pena. He's got power but he's pretty bad at everything else. He's a bad fielder, a poor baserunner, strikes out too much, and doesn't walk. But that power could make him special.
I can see why the Sox wouldn't make this deal and the Mets probably wouldn't do it either.
Aaron Heilman for Wily Mo Pena.
I don't think the Mets do this trade unless Shawn Green can be dumped somewhere or there is a Milledge trade in place.
Or do people see bigger things for Heilman?
There were rumors a month ago that the Red Sox wanted Heilman to be their closer.
This is obviously hyperbole but do you really think a Pena-Heilman trade is lopsided? Pena's BABIP was .400 last season and he only managed an .838 OPS. Even with an .838 OPS he isn't much more than an average player because of his poor defense. Trading for Pena means that you are hoping that he fulfills his potential which may or may not happen.
If player A who was a LF and player B was a LF'er and used 400 outs they would each recieve a pos adjustment of -9. If one used 380 outs and one used 420 outs one would be sligbhty above -9 and the other slightly below.
Soriano and Lee each used many more outs than manny.
I agree defensive innings would be a better way to look at it. But since the pos adjustment benchmark is based on outs I don't know how to transfer it.
I would argue that, given his durability, power (he outhomered Drew this year), speed, and, yes, intangibles, Damon is a better player than Drew. I like Drew's rate stats too, but what good are they if he is on the DL?
Win shares last three years:
Damon: 27 (2004), 25 (2005), 22 (2006)
Drew: 34, 13, 21
Drew's park-adjusted OPS+ was only five points better than Damon last season, and Damon made nearly 100 more PAs. If the Red Sox make this deal, then they will be rightly criticized for their about-face on whatever principles they supposedly were leaning on when they let Damon walk to their AL East rivals.
Unfortunately, Wily Mo is not with the Reds anymore.
I think the principal in question was that they thought Coco would be as good but cost less--but then Coco broke his hand. I still think that was just one of several good decisions that turned out badly for them in 06. Same with Wily Mo, who I would not trade for a reliever at this point. He looked like a great hitter before he got hurt last year, and the Red Sox seem to believe in his upside.
THe first 3 should start, but Crisp can start once a week, fill in when one of the three is injured (for this possibility is very very high), and can defensively sub/PR for Manny almost daily.
Basically, if you have all 4 of those guys, you don't need a 5th OF, and it frees up a roster spot for something/body else.
I also never want to see Youkilis play OF. EVER.
I don't see why the Red Sox should be in the business of making themselves less good. And until someone can identify either (a) a star quality SS or closer on the free agent market who can basically only be acquired using money saved on Manny or (b) a contending team that wants to trade away their star closer or SS, I don't think that "trade Manny" talk should deal in generalities of "the Sox will get something in return" - what? from whom?
I think it has much less to do with principles and more to do with A) the market and B) Coco Crisp. I don't recall the exact chronology, so I'm not sure how much the Crisp trade could have factored into their plans when they let Damon walk-- though he was, supposedly, in their sights for some time. I think the Red Sox may have expected Coco Crisp to outperform Damon last year _and_ cost less money.
People keep referring to some hallowed "principles" the Sox had in the past-- I think they wanted to win efficiently, if possible, but I think it was a pragmatic stance, not a principled one.
Failing to re-sign Damon didn't work out in year one-- and, given the market's upward trend, and Coco's disappointing play so far, it's got a good chance of being a mistake. So the Sox should "be rightly criticized" for attempting to correct that mistake by signing Drew?
Good point. Given Coco's past numbers in LF, that would be a pretty dramatic defensive swing late in games, as well as a huge improvement on the basepaths. Also, all four of those guys would play any time Ortiz misses a game, with Manny taking his spot at DH.
One concern, though, is that Francona would make Coco the starting CF, and give Wily Mo the shaft. As you suggest, injuries might make this moot, but, barring that, I don't necessarily trust Tito to make the right call there. (On the other hand, maybe we'll get lucky, and a non-injured Coco will up his game all around.)
Is there any doubt as to which of these is true? Not to mention that those decisions could still work out better than they have so far in the end-- and that still wouldn't be a reason not to sign Drew.
I don't mean to spare the FO criticism for their past decisions-- it's the idea that those decisions mean that this one should be criticized as well that seems strange to me.
But they will get "something," and otherwise they will not do it. This is no salary dump - they are in a position of strength. For someone that decries the SoSH tendency to pull trade possibilities out of thin air, it is an odd thing to demand. But in the interest of throwing out concrete scenarios that I think result in an improved Sox club, I will mention some proxies for the sorts of deals that I think can get done. First, we start with the baseline that Drew and Matsuzaka get done and then with money freed up from a Manny deal, they sign Lugo. So what then can Manny fetch from some teams?
LAD: Saito, Kemp/Laroche/Loney and another prospect not as far along (Lord knows LAD has plenty)
LAA: Aybar, Shields, Rivera
PHI: Burrell, Madson and Mathieson
I don't know - these are totally out of my arse and may overestimate the mkt for Manny but these are a few deals that I think significantly help Boston both today and for the future.
Probably not clear enough that I mean just one of this trio...
i'm not against getting drew. he's a fine player, and probably the best on the market. i'm against getting drew and dumping Manny. i don't think you can get value back for him, and it's nice having players who are on the team for long periods of time.
also, i'm not impressed by Lugo.
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