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Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Projecting C.C. Sabathia: The $140 Million Question

Sabathia is none of these things. Unlike Brown, he’s not almost 35. Unlike Hampton, his success does not come from the parks he’s called home. Unlike Zito, he doesn’t have rising walk rates and dropping strikeout rates and his best season was last year, not five seasons ago.

He doesn’t have control problems. He doesn’t have obviously problematic mechanics. He doesn’t just “get by” with a decent fastball and a whole lot of junk. By all accounts, he’s not a self-absorbed jerk, or a hot-head, or a primadonna, or a clubhouse cancer, or anything of that ilk. He doesn’t appear to wilt in the heat of a pennant race or the playoffs. In short, there’s really nothing wrong with him, except…


His size. Unlike Neyer’s assessment, though, this is not the elephant in the room nobody talks about. For one thing, everybody’s talking about it, and for another, can’t we come up with a less loaded analogy than that for a fat guy? “Sabathia’s weight is the gauche, pink drapes in the room everyone’s ignoring!” Nah, now we’re upsetting a different demographic. Sorry, fat guys.

Hotel Coral Esix Snead (tmutchell) Posted: December 02, 2008 at 04:48 AM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, athletics, brewers, business, dodgers, giants, history, mets, projections, rockies, rumors, sabermetrics, yankees

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   1. Eric P. Posted: December 02, 2008 at 06:55 AM (#3018553)
He doesn’t appear to wilt in the heat of a pennant race or the playoffs.


This is the same C.C. Sabathia with the 7.92 postseason ERA, right? I don't attach too much significance to that but to act like it didn't happen is kind of silly.
   2. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: December 02, 2008 at 07:01 AM (#3018557)
Fine, as long as the $140 million question isn't "Which President said "Sock it to me" on Laugh-In?" Because that was a joke.
   3. RMc is the loyal supporter of the MLB event Posted: December 02, 2008 at 01:46 PM (#3018589)
   4. Swoboda is freedom Posted: December 02, 2008 at 02:25 PM (#3018597)
he’s not a self-absorbed jerk, or a primadonna

Another A-Rod rip?
   5. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 02, 2008 at 02:36 PM (#3018609)
I'll try: Sabathia's weight is the anthrax in the envelope.
   6. Smiling Joe Hesketh Posted: December 02, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#3018780)
This is the same C.C. Sabathia with the 7.92 postseason ERA, right? I don't attach too much significance to that but to act like it didn't happen is kind of silly.

It seems that suggestions he may well have been worn down by the time the playoffs rolled around in 07 and 08 have been scoffed at here, but to me that's still the most likely explanation. He had 4 straight years of pitching just under 200 innings from 03-06, and then threw 241 regular season innings in 07 and 253 this year. It's very possible he was worn down by the time the playoffs arrived and that may explain his poor results in those series.
   7. Hotel Coral Esix Snead (tmutchell) Posted: December 02, 2008 at 06:01 PM (#3018860)
That was a throw-in line about the playoffs, careless of me.

CC had a 2.11 ERA in 43 innings in Sept-Ober 2008, and was 4-0, 2.37 in that time frame last year. So he held up during the stretch.

CC's experience in the playoffs constitutes a very small sample size, only 25 innings to date. Having "worn down" was a convenient excuse for his poor performances, and not one he ever made for himself. Writers are always looking for easy, convenient answers, whether there's any evidence for them or not.

He had one playoff outing this year, and was not good in it. Last year he beat the Yankees in the ALDS, then lost two in the ALCS against Boston, who averaged 5.35 runs/game in the regular season and would eventually win the WS. His second start was 6 IP, 4 ER, which isn't awful against a team like that. Before that you're going back to the 2001 ALDS, where he beat the 116-win Mariners with 6 IP, 2 ER, not bad for a 20-year old rookie, but ancient history by now.

I'll admit that I should not have written what I did about the playoffs, but I maintain that the evidence against him is hardly conclusive. Tom Glavine's playoff record in his first three opportunities was 1-5, 5.71 in 35 IP, and he went on to win 13 more games with a 2.99 ERA in the playoffs. Greg Maddux started out 2-2, 6.62 in 34 innings, then compiled a 2.58 ERA in his other 164 playoff innings. CC's 25 playoff innings should not (ahem...) carry more weight than his 1600+ regular season innings, especially the last 500 or so, which were nothing short of excellent.
   8. Athletic Supporter leads the nation in drifters Posted: December 02, 2008 at 06:19 PM (#3018879)
It's worth noting that Sabathia has always pitched quite poorly in Oakland, where his family and friends come out to support him. In numerous interviews after these games, he has said that he was really nervous and trying too hard, which lends at least some credence to a Psychological Theory of Sabathia.

Again, obviously that's small sample size, but the man himself has said (again, he wasn't making excuses, just matter-of-fact) that there might be something going on up there.
   9. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 02, 2008 at 08:13 PM (#3019041)
Psychological Theory of Sabathia

AHA! <u>You're</u> Joe Gambler, aren't you?

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