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Monday, July 16, 2018

Prospect Carter Kieboom’s talent might force Nationals into some difficult decisions

Future Nats 2B or trade piece?

Jim Furtado Posted: July 16, 2018 at 10:22 AM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: carter kiebooms, nationals, prospects

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   1. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5710535)
Please tell me his name is pronounced “ka-BOOM.”
   2. Spahn Insane Posted: July 16, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5710565)
Ha--the absurd force beat me to it.
   3. Bote Man Posted: July 16, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5710640)
Well, his brother pronounces it "whiff" FWIW.

If they can pull a good deal for a current need, then do it. Prospects can be replenished.

But the Nats are done in 2018 so why bother trying to salvage this season? Just plan for a future without Harper and the other free agents who are gone after this year.
   4. McCoy Posted: July 16, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5710651)
I guess theoretically the Nationals could trade away Harper, Adams, Reynolds, Hellickson, Gio, and bullpen parts easily before the deadline. Don't know what they would get back. After that you really start talking about what can you do to be competitive for 2019 and if you don't have a lot of good answers you start asking yourself some really hard questions. Like do you even try to sign Rendon beyond 2020. If you can trade Scherzer for a boatload of players do you do that?

This is a team that is going to need a lot of players next year to be competitive. They've got 98 million dollars tied up in Scherzer, Strasburg, and Zimmerman with only Max being anything that anyone can count for good production. They've got Eaton (yippee) and Turner & Rendon coming back. They can bring back Doolittle as well. Beyond that all they really have left is spare parts under contract. Sure Grace and Ross might turn into something or they might not but it looks like the Nationals should probably just destroy the current team for a boatload of prospects if possible.
   5. Walt Davis Posted: July 16, 2018 at 05:49 PM (#5710785)
I was about to say that the demise of the 2018 Nats is being over-stated. But I forgot how late the AS break is this year -- already 96 games played. If they play 600 over their last 66 that still gets them to just 88 wins which might squeak into a WC.

That said, last year after 96 games, the Cubs were just 50-46, still 1 game back and the finished with 92 wins. I have sufficient faith in the fadability of the Phils and Braves that 92 wins might even take the division. Not that I'm predicting the Nats to 92 wins.
   6. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 16, 2018 at 06:20 PM (#5710801)
The Nate are just my 5.5 games out. Honestly 88 wins might take the division. As it is the Phils are only on a 90 win pace. Now a Machado trade could counteract any expected regression but right now I’d say the Nats are the likeliest division winner. Given the state of things I wouldn’t be so confident of that to put money on it but I can see them making up that ground fairly quickly.
   7. TomH Posted: July 16, 2018 at 06:37 PM (#5710810)
Sure, if Wash beats Phi and Atl often, they could win. Their team has been about as good, and could easily get better as the lineup is healthier.
   8. Sunday silence Posted: July 16, 2018 at 06:40 PM (#5710813)
hell, theoretically you could trade Harper as a short term rental and then re sign him at the end of the season. So there's lots of possibilities.

You can probably make up four games in two weeks or less. With a month left in the season probably 6 or 8 games is realistic. so there's no reason to punt this until maybe two or three weeks are left at which pt everyone is re loading and getting ready for playoffs so there's nothing more to accomplish. Rizzo the GM strikes me as pretty conservative, so they'll probably play it out and may be try to re sign Harper.
   9. Sunday silence Posted: July 16, 2018 at 07:04 PM (#5710836)

This is a team that is going to need a lot of players next year to be competitive. ... Beyond that all they really have left is spare parts under contract.


This is about the silliest sort of pessimist view possible. Which team in MLB has been in the playoffs the most in the past 5 years? Is it the Nats? Im guessing? Surely they are as competitive as any team in the league. And in the case of the NL central they've obviously had more success then the rest of those teams. You just listed their best players there they probably have a better roster on paper than any team in the NL east.

Current fangraphs have them at 44% to win the div. 32% for Phillies and 24% for Barves...I have no idea how up to date it is but should come close.

I like to count the core players on a team any team just to see what they were like. Like how many good players did they have? Defined as 3 WAR or better. PIT for ex. has 4 I think; LAD has I think 6, some teams might have 7. Right now the NAts have 5 or 6 if you count GioGonzo. That's not bad.

Thats not counting Soto who's a 19 yr old phenom ops 143. Hell he could be the next Cedeno or something. also not counting Harper who should at least bounce back to good. Then there's a bunch of old guys: Zimmerman, Reynolds, Murphy, maybe one of them might bounce back.

BUt just adding Harper and Soto to the mix, youve got 7 or 8 good core ball players. Who has more than that? NYY? AZD? CLE
   10. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 16, 2018 at 07:05 PM (#5710838)
They've got Eaton (yippee) and Turner & Rendon coming back. They can bring back Doolittle as well. Beyond that all they really have left is spare parts under contract.


Uh....you forgot Soto. He's their best player, really young and really, really cheap right now.

I think they've got a lot of young talent, plus they are looking at Kieboom coming up also.

If they don't think they can sign Harper, they should try to move him for some talent, that would be a bold move.
   11. McCoy Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5710922)
This is about the silliest sort of pessimist view possible. Which team in MLB has been in the playoffs the most in the past 5 years? Is it the Nats? Im guessing? Surely they are as competitive as any team in the league. And in the case of the NL central they've obviously had more success then the rest of those teams. You just listed their best players there they probably have a better roster on paper than any team in the NL east.

Current fangraphs have them at 44% to win the div. 32% for Phillies and 24% for Barves...I have no idea how up to date it is but should come close.

I like to count the core players on a team any team just to see what they were like. Like how many good players did they have? Defined as 3 WAR or better. PIT for ex. has 4 I think; LAD has I think 6, some teams might have 7. Right now the NAts have 5 or 6 if you count GioGonzo. That's not bad.

Thats not counting Soto who's a 19 yr old phenom ops 143. Hell he could be the next Cedeno or something. also not counting Harper who should at least bounce back to good. Then there's a bunch of old guys: Zimmerman, Reynolds, Murphy, maybe one of them might bounce back.

BUt just adding Harper and Soto to the mix, youve got 7 or 8 good core ball players. Who has more than that? NYY? AZD? CLE


This is all kinds of weird because you're quoting me talking about next year, not this year. Yet your rebuttal is about this year.
   12. McCoy Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:03 PM (#5710923)
Uh....you forgot Soto. He's their best player, really young and really, really cheap right now.

I'll think about Soto when he has more than 200 PA and has shown he can do it year in and year out. Of course that doesn't mean you should trade him or sit him for some 34 year old with a 112 OPS+. I'm just not going to go all Wieters or Heyward on the guy until he's shown he can do it consistently.
   13. SoSH U at work Posted: July 16, 2018 at 09:56 PM (#5710954)
Which team in MLB has been in the playoffs the most in the past 5 years? Is it the Nats? Im guessing?


Not really close. The Dodgers have been in the playoffs the last five completed seasons. The Nats, Cubs Cards, Red Sox and Pirates tie for second with three each.
   14. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2018 at 10:06 PM (#5710962)
And in the case of the NL central they've obviously had more success then the rest of those teams.

Did you mean nl east here?
   15. Hank Gillette Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:06 PM (#5710991)
Everybody wants Kieboom. He’s rangy, has power and eventually will play multiple positions. He’s about as certain a solid big leaguer as you will find yet unlikely to be a future superstar that you would regret losing forever.


I don’t get this. I wouldn’t call Trea Turner a superstar, but I bet the Padres regret trading him away. Besides, what could you trade him for that would substantially increase their odds of making the playoffs? Their problem has been injuries and underperformance. Even with all the injuries, if Harper had performed as expected, they would be close to the lead in the NL East.
   16. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:22 PM (#5710996)
Guys, his name is Ka-Boom!
   17. the Hugh Jorgan returns Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:22 PM (#5710997)
I'm just not going to go all Wieters or Heyward on the guy until he's shown he can do it consistently.


That's fair enough, however Soto has shown far more with the stick then Heyward ever has. As for Wieters, he was over-hyped the minute prospectus released their projections(still a very funny meme)
   18. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2018 at 11:42 PM (#5711001)
Heyward had a .964 Ops thru his first 209PA (just over 2 months, 10HRs). Soto is at .929 right now (209 PA, 9HRs).

So, no. Everyone forgets how hot he started.
   19. Jefferson Manship (Dan Lee) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5711102)
Kaboom was my jam back in the day when I played Atari 2600 games.
   20. McCoy Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:43 AM (#5711125)
Wieters was for the hype of a prospect that has not been called up yet and Heyward was for the hype that a rookie gets by performing well in a small sample size.


Looked through Cot's and the Nationals have about 145 million tied up in 7 contracts for next year. I would assume they pick up the option on Doolittle and I would assume that Kintzler would get to walk. Keep Rendon and you got at least 160 million in 8 contracts.

Rotation would be:
Sherzer
Strasburg (I would factor in only 25 starts)
Roark
?
?

You got maybe 90 starts there and with Roark you're hoping for about league average starting pitching production. In the pen you've got Doolittle and that's about it. So they basically needs to find about 3 SP and cobble together an effective bullpen with 6 to 7 more spots up for grabs.

Your lineup would be
C: ?
1B: Zimmerman?
2B: Does Rendon go back? Do they bring up Kieboom?
SS: Turner
3B: Rendon?
LF: Juan Soto
CF: Taylor
RF: Eaton

On paper not an absolute terrible lineup but Zimmerman has to put up a 2017 season instead of any of the other seasons in the last 5 years. Eaton has to resurrect himself, Taylor has to keep putting up good defensive numbers, same with Turner. Rendon is in a weird spot in that his defense has slipped but his hitting has improved. Does he get moved to first and the Nationals cut bait on Zimmerman? If Plan A works and is able to last for most of the season the Nationals probably have a good offense but as of right now they appear to me to be a not very deep team that needs things to break right for them.
   21. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 17, 2018 at 10:54 AM (#5711133)
Sure, if Wash beats Phi and Atl often, they could win. Their team has been about as good, and could easily get better as the lineup is healthier.


They do have 9 games left against each of the Phillies and Braves - starting with three games at home against the Braves after the break.

Then to Milwaukee for three (remember the Brewers really stumbled into the break), four in Miami, and then the Mets on 7/31-8/1.

Feels like they're at least a week away from needing to make a decision one way or another.

   22. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 17, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5711166)
LF: Juan Soto
CF: Taylor
RF: Eaton


I'd be pretty surprised to see Taylor starting over Victor Robles next year.
   23. McCoy Posted: July 17, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5711175)
Unless the Nationals trade him for Realmuto which would solve their catcher question for next year.
   24. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 17, 2018 at 12:02 PM (#5711193)
I'd be pretty surprised to see Taylor starting over Victor Robles next year.

I was about to remind folks that Robles was ahead of Soto before he hyperextended his elbow early in the season. He just resumed playing with AAA Syracuse, putting up a .385 BA, .851 OPS in 4 games. There's been some mention of the Marlins wanting him for Realmuto, but if he's still with the Nationals he's likely to play next year.

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