|
|
|
|
Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Monday, May 10, 2010
“One particular commenter at BBTF who evinced an almost superhuman ability for misapprehension and misconception…” Now there’s a handle change waiting to happen!
It was brought to my attention yesterday that my recent post on Clutch Pitchers and LevERA+ had been linked to by The Baseball Think Factory. I learned this from a friend who sent me an e-mail that quoted some of the more amusing misconceptions from the commenters at BBTF. I initially had no intention of addressing these misconceptions, reasoning that it was probably futile to reason with anyone who could have possibly understood the post to be arguing that Steve Trachsel was a great pitcher, or that Jeff Suppan was better than Jim Palmer and Tom Seaver. There were certain commenters at BBTF however who seemed to have at least a passing interest in the concept of LevERA+, and so I’ll devote a few more words to the subject. I’ll briefly address some of the more amusing misconceptions voiced at the BBTF and then discuss the calculation and conceptual underpinnings of the LevERA+ concept.
“No, I wasn’t arguing that Steve Trachsel is better than Tom Seaver…”
Incredibly, more than a few BBTF commenters seemed to think that I was proposing the clutch adjustment factor as a measure of pitching prowess. Even more believed I was arguing that Trachsel or Jeff Suppan were “more clutch” than Tom Seaver or Jim Palmer or Ron Guidry. I was completely mystified as to how anyone could have made these extraordinary leaps of illogic until my buddy pointed out to me that the term “clutch adjustment factor” really is inapt. I have to admit he’s correct, and it’s possible that some of the more absurd misconceptions expressed at BBTF derive from this ill-advised term. The better term is of course “leverage adjustment factor.”
Edit: Link to the original discussion. Jim
|
Bookmarks
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
Hot Topics
Newsblog: HP: Baseball is leaving the human factor behind (10 - 8:30am, May 25)Last: AndrewJNewsblog: FS Midwest: Streaker halts Cardinals-Phillies game (3 - 8:27am, May 25)Last: depletionNewsblog: Matinale: WADJ: Wins Above Derek Jeter (2 - 8:24am, May 25)Last: Fancy Pants is braggadocious about his HandleNewsblog: OT: NBA Monthly Thread, May 2012 (1773 - 8:14am, May 25)Last: Famous Original Joe CNewsblog: Boston.com: Curt Schilling’s 38 Studios lays off all staff (45 - 8:04am, May 25)Last: Golfing Great Mitch CumsteinNewsblog: Neyer: New Yankee Stadium: A Review (75 - 8:01am, May 25)Last: Harveys WallbangersNewsblog: Greenberg: Cubs' Ricketts decries proposal (750 - 7:54am, May 25)Last: Jolly Old St. Neck Wound, Moral IdiotNewsblog: Roy Halladay bobblehead with glove on wrong hand selling on MLB.com (12 - 6:46am, May 25)Last: Doris from Rego ParkNewsblog: Sullivan: Dan Haren Makes Mariners Look Like Mariners (1 - 6:40am, May 25)Last: The cushions are crowded for EdmundoNewsblog: 12 Baseball Feats That Only Happened Once (25 - 6:25am, May 25)Last: Greg (U)KNewsblog: Shawn Green to play for Israel in World Baseball Classic (12 - 5:50am, May 25)Last: shoewizardNewsblog: Primer Dugout (and link of the day) 5-25-2012 (1 - 5:33am, May 25)Last: Tim Stauffer, Trot Nixon's Coming (Dan Lee)Newsblog: Wins Above Replacement: Distribution and Rarity of Talent 2011 - Beyond the Box Score (9 - 4:18am, May 25)Last: bobmNewsblog: Dodgers want to host NHL's Winter Classic (15 - 3:07am, May 25)Last: Greg (U)KNewsblog: OT: NHL Playoff Thread (1731 - 1:45am, May 25)Last: baudib
|
|
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: May 10, 2010 at 11:26 AM (#3528106)you should add "make up a stat based solely on the fact the Ron Guidry appears in the top 10 of that stat.."
1. Guidry, 1978, 25-3
2. anybody else?
hilaripus
If this guy has some actual ability to know where someone will rank in the stat before he's even made up the stat, then he should be using that talent in more productive ways.
This levERA+ stat is dumber than 10 Tommy Lasordas.
Help me out here. Does that mean it's dumber than a million dogs, or a billion? Me no real good on maths.
#1 is Randy Johnson (18-2 in 1995).
;)
see??--Ron Santo gets no respect even here
Guidry
Andy Pettitte
Bob Pettit
Ray Fontenot
Herman Fontenot
Mike Fontenot (which of those is which?)
Jake Delhomme
Bobby Hebert
Calvin Borel
??
Oddly enough, super-clutch poster boy Steve Trachsel actually did this for the Cubs in 1998 (well, it was a one-game playoff for the wild card). Not that he had a record anything like Guidry's or Johnson's that year, of course (he was 15-8 for those who care).
don't forget this guy
You have clearly never been to a SABR meeting. Those presentations are often on par with this guy's stuff.
I'm not sure whether to be frightened or reassured by that, so I'll settle for a bit of both.
"Poor Clark Kent! Always missing the excitement!"
Bret Favre? (Asked seriously -- I don't know).
Awesome!
HOF Eagles running back Steve Van Buren (from Honduras, but grew up in Louisiana and played at LSU)
Kiko seemed to be missing some fundamental points, for example:
Anyone who could ask this question obviously isn't getting the drift. The Guidry blogger guy pretty plainly stated that a pitcher's win% is of course a function of runs allowed and run support, which I think we can all agree on. Trachsel's run support was terrible, much worse certainly than Blyleven's. That's why his win% was so poor.
As for Kiko's claim that "clutch" was somehow being double-counted, it was a singularly unpersuasive argument. ERA+ doesn't account for game or situation context at all. A run is a run for ERA and ERA+ purposes.
Guidry
Andy Pettitte
Bob Pettit
Ray Fontenot
Herman Fontenot
Mike Fontenot (which of those is which?)
Jake Delhomme
Bobby Hebert
Calvin Borel
??"
Bobby Boucher, Jr.
Ah, Gene Bearden. Bearden's '48 season was one of the great "one hit wonders" of baseball history. The guy was truly magnificent in '48, not only putting up great W-L and ERA stats but also pitching like a demon down the stretch of one of the great pennant races in AL history. He was 7-1 in Sept/Oct with a 1.83 ERA as the Tribe battled the Sox and Yanks for the AL lead, culminating in a complete game win over the Sox in the one-game playoff. He won his last six starts in a row. Truly one of the greatest pennant race performances by a pitcher ever.
Here's a good trivia question that just occurred to me. Can anyone else name another pitcher who had a 20 win season but didn't even hit double-digits in wins in any other season? I can't think of one off the top of my head.
Closest I can come without really thinking is Lou Fette (first old player whose autograph I ever obtained via SASE; second was Chief Hogsett), who won 20 as a 30-year-old rookie in '37, then 11 & 10 the next two seasons, winding things up with 0 in '41 & '45.
Gene Bearden.
Tommy, I suspect that you sleep with the "Guidry blogger guy" every night.
I also suspect you shower with him, eat all your meals with him and share his innermost thoughts.
Just to paint a target, here's my 12-man team. There are 2 at each position, plus a swing center/forward and a swing forward/guard. I didn't include guys who are not yet retired.
At each position, the guy I consider best is listed first:
C - Bill Russell (the greatest player in basketball history, able to play "everything you have done (except score points) I have done double" With Michael Jordan (who I rank #2).
C - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
PF - Bob Pettit
PF - Charles Barkley
SF - Julius Erving
SF - Paul Arizin (a REAL old pioneer guy, deadly with set shots before there were jump shots, and a defense whiz)
Swing Guy - Larry Bird
PG - Magic Johnson
PG - Clyde Drexler
SG - Michael Jordan
SG - Jerry West
Swing Guy - Oscar Robertson
Best guys not on team: Wilt Chamberlain, George Mikan and Bob Cousy
- Brock Hanke
Toe. Nash.
Seattle Bill James
Gee, thanks, District Attorney. Any other Gene Beardens you'd like to mention?
He never won 20, but the mention of a "30-year-old rookie" triggered the memory of Dick Hughes. As a 29-year-old rookie, Hughes went 16-6, with a 123 ERA+, in the thick of the 1967 pennant race for a Cardinal team that was missing Bob Gibson (broken leg). He finished 2nd in the RoY vote and 17th in the MVP vote that year. His career win total was 20.
And while he may not have been a Cajun, bb-ref does say he went to high school in Shreveport.
In the post deadball era, Johnny Beazley is one of the few other than Bearden.
First, my claims were only with respect to Steve Trachsel. And, of course, I realize that debating how "clutch" Steve Trachsel was in his career is an extremely uninteresting argument to pretty much everybody on every side of the "debate".
But in the case of Steve Trachsel, his WPA and his ERA+ are perfectly consistent - they both reflect an almost perfectly average pitcher (ERA+ of 99, WPA totals of 191.61 WPA+ v. 190.51 WPA-) (and, as you suggest, one whose sub-.500 career W-L record is the result of poor run support).
Both of these stand in fairly stark contrast to Trachsel's WPA/LI (-8.75 wins over his career) and his FIP (which is 0.45 higher than his ERA for his career). Now, I'm willing to say that this makes Steve Trachsel "clutch" over the course of his career. But the way in which that "clutchiness" manifested itself in Trachsel's case was that he allowed fewer runs than you would have expected him to allow given the number of walks, hits, home runs, etc., he allowed. But that "clutchiness" is already reflected in Steve Trachsel's ERA and ERA+.
He didn't win 20, but since 18 is the new 20, ken Bottenfield won 18 in 1999, and his next highest total was 8.
This. A better clutchiness-adjusted measure would be something like LevOPS+, or possibly a version of LevERA+ calculated using a simplified leverage index based only on scoring margin and inning.
Joe Mays won 17 in 2001, and his next highest total was 8.ear.
#3 is, of course, Joe Niekro -- who had a better postseason ERA than either of those guys.
BECAUSE HE WAS MORE CLUTCHIER
Right. Now that we've seen how LevERA+ is calculated, we can see that it's making a faulty assumption that "Clutch" measures performance that is not captured in ERA+, and therefore ERA+ needs to be adjusted for it.
No he isn't. He won 20, 18, and 10. Mark Fidrych came close. 19 wins, then 6 for second best.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main